Will Alts Play Catch-up? Or Is This Time Different?
Updated
In my previous XRP analysis, I timed a trade right before the breakout of the long term downtrend:
In my previous ETH analysis, I said it could hit $700. The parabola I drew broke, but it came close:
The last time Bitcoin broke its all-time-high, altcoins began outperforming Bitcoin. In fact, many outperformed Bitcoin until the end of the bull market. However, it hasn't happened the same way this time, and altcoin holders are rightfully disappointed. Maybe this is why we're seeing some upside in Bitcoin Dominance at the moment. I think this is largely due to the demand for liquidity. Bitcoin is just another cash-cow for institutions. As the money printer keeps churning, the flight from the USD continues. Neoliberalism at its finest. The market will sort itself out, right?
Anyway, I entered a couple of trades today, on Ethereum and XRP. I think this is the last chance for alts to begin outperforming before we see several weeks (or more) of consolidation for the crypto market. On the left, you can see that XRP has held above the broken downtrend channel. In a bear market, I would expect it to break down back into the channel, so my stop loss is below today's low (within the channel).
ETH:
Entry: $613.50
Targets: $849, 1100 (potentially the top of the current uptrend channel)
Stop loss: $575
XRP (smaller position):
Entry: $0.5210
Targets: $0.80, 1.19, 1.90
Stop loss: $0.4895
On the bearish side of things, if ETH cannot hold $530, I think its run can be over, and it can target some much lower levels (if only briefly). Additionally, if XRP cannot hold above the downtrend channel, it can go into the $0.30 range again.
This is not financial advice! This is for my personal record, and should be used for educational, speculative, and entertainment purposes only.
-Victor Cobra
In my previous ETH analysis, I said it could hit $700. The parabola I drew broke, but it came close:
The last time Bitcoin broke its all-time-high, altcoins began outperforming Bitcoin. In fact, many outperformed Bitcoin until the end of the bull market. However, it hasn't happened the same way this time, and altcoin holders are rightfully disappointed. Maybe this is why we're seeing some upside in Bitcoin Dominance at the moment. I think this is largely due to the demand for liquidity. Bitcoin is just another cash-cow for institutions. As the money printer keeps churning, the flight from the USD continues. Neoliberalism at its finest. The market will sort itself out, right?
Anyway, I entered a couple of trades today, on Ethereum and XRP. I think this is the last chance for alts to begin outperforming before we see several weeks (or more) of consolidation for the crypto market. On the left, you can see that XRP has held above the broken downtrend channel. In a bear market, I would expect it to break down back into the channel, so my stop loss is below today's low (within the channel).
ETH:
Entry: $613.50
Targets: $849, 1100 (potentially the top of the current uptrend channel)
Stop loss: $575
XRP (smaller position):
Entry: $0.5210
Targets: $0.80, 1.19, 1.90
Stop loss: $0.4895
On the bearish side of things, if ETH cannot hold $530, I think its run can be over, and it can target some much lower levels (if only briefly). Additionally, if XRP cannot hold above the downtrend channel, it can go into the $0.30 range again.
This is not financial advice! This is for my personal record, and should be used for educational, speculative, and entertainment purposes only.
-Victor Cobra
Note
Well, it looks like the XRP long did not survive, but it was fun while it lasted. Can still hit the targets if it gets quickly back above 0.50. ETH still active. Might open up on XRP eventually again if the ETH position generates profit.Note
Seems unlikely XRP will get back above the channel, as it could just remain in a downtrend/move sideways for months with so much regulatory uncertainty. The lawsuit will probably hang over Ripple for the rest of the Bitcoin bull market. Such a shame, though I suppose many would say they had it coming :) I also let go of my spot XRP position for now (average entry $0.26).Trade closed: stop reached
These trades were both stopped out unfortunately. As mentioned above, I let go of my spot XRP position. For that allocation, I decided on Litecoin for now. Still holding ETH, with major entries at $107 and $130.
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