XRP / USD - JOURNAL - ACTIVE SERIES for BITSTAMP:XRPUSD by ZielIstDieAutarkie

This is an ACTIVELY managed BLOG CONTRIBUTION, which will be UPDATED DAILY with comments and trade ideas.

| This way, I generate a SERIES for you, where you, as a reader, can - ACTIVELY - learn from the analyses, decisions, & interactions |

In the following analysis, I highlight a possible SHORT scenario in the > XRPUSDT <

We focus on the KEY technical points and KEY areas that will be relevant in the coming days.

As soon as the temporary direction of the price emerges, I will update the post accordingly, with entries, stop-loss & take-profit levels.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION *

After sudden publication of the victory against the SEC (court case), the price rose up to MACRO level resistances

It will be very hard to get past these without another correction, so we should see a healthy and needed correction in the next few days.

The purpose of the correction is to test the broken former resistances and turn them into supports (0.593 USD).

In my opinion, the realistic targets are the "VIOLET" colored areas, which should be the next support.

# Positioning after confirmation of this thesis = SHORT

*Additional information will be added as comments to this blog to give you the most value possible.

If this idea and explanation have added value to you, I would appreciate a COMMENT or BOOST very much.

Thank you, and happy trading!

Note

Note

Will the breakout be confirmed with the upcoming 4h close in 2h?!

Trade active

Note

If we can hold this resistance line in the 1h + 4h, the ab-sale will start.

Note

The monthly close has taken place, and the following candle was received.

> The news regarding the procedure with the SEC has been resolved for the time being and this is reflected in the candle.
> The Bullish candle has finally turned into a Doji, reflecting the target zones that have been reached.
> We could see a correction here before we see another move higher.

Note

Trade active

The market gained strength again and will get another leg up.
= I changed my bias for the short-term picture, LONG now and will try to get a higher SHORT level.

Note

We got the "ADP Non-Farm Employment Change" numbers from the USA, which were really positive for the USD.

With that, the USD dominance (DXY) will continue to rise until we see the next CPI data tomorrow.
= pressure on all other markets related to it

Note

Original SHORT Idee continues!

Note

HTF wise if we’ll close like bearish engulfing, then it drops.

Note

The market should show little volatility until today's news events:
> USD - Unemployment Claims (in 4 hours)
> USD - ISM Services PMI (in 6 hours)

There will be extreme volatility at these events, so caution is advised.

Note

USD - Unemployment Claims
= Neutral data release / we need to wait for the ISM for bias

Note

USD - ISM Services PMI
= Negative data release / the pressure on the DXY is high, and with that, the possibility for a correction got higher.

Trade closed manually

I have now closed the trade due to lack of volatility "Break Even".
- the idea is thus invalidated for the time being

Note

All markets seem to be gathering liquidity right now and waiting.
= Ranges have formed, and we can say the direction only when a range is significantly broken, with confirmation of the range.

Tomorrow will be published 3x relevant American economic data, the results of which the market will wait with great anticipation.

> Average Hourly Earnings m/m
> Non-Farm Employment Change
> Unemployment Rate

Note

Mixed data print - as a consequence we should see a mixed market reaction and volatility over the next few hours.

> Average Hourly Earnings m/m
= PRO < USD
> Non-Farm Employment Change
= CONTRA > USD
> Unemployment Rate
= PRO < USD

Note

First TP level has been reached and booked in, from here we can go either way - so be careful regarding your SL.

Note

Short-term bullish divergence in the LTF - nothing important, but short-term relevant.

Note

The volatility will continue to be slow because we have two major events at the end of this week:
> Thursday = CPI
> Friday = PPI

The market is waiting for the results of these events = there should be no big move until Thursday.

IF SOMETHING HAPPENS WITH THE HUOBI EXCHANGE - THERE WILL BE BIG VOLATILITY = SELL OFF!

Note

DAILY CLOSE - BULLISH (DOJI)
> Today Intra-day correction and then continuation of upwards move or DOJI close.

Note

Tomorrow are big impact news for the USD = CPI data
> Until that, the price should move slowly because the market is waiting for the release.

Note

DAILY CLOSE - INDECISIVE
> Closed under the previous Market structure
> Doji candle indicates indecisiveness - still the upside shadows is really long which indicates more bearishness.
> I'm sure that we will see today with the USD event, a significant direction move.
> In which direction - no one can predict, we need to wait for the data.

Note

Tomorrow are big impact news for the USD = "PPI data" + "Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment" afterward
> Until that, the price should move slowly because the market is waiting for the release.

Note

Valid until CPI:

Note

< USD NEWS > PPI + CORE PPI
= Positive data release / the pressure on the DXY is thus less.
= This now brings the possibility of a further downward movement into play.

Note

DAILY - CLOSING PRICE = UNDECIDED

> The candle formed a "DOJI"
= this indicates indecision and needs another candle close.

> The "CLOSING PRICE" reflects the lack of momentum, which can also be seen in the ITD observation.
> The MA (50, 100, 200) - serve as support.
> The MA (5, 8, 20) - serve as resistance.

1 DAY = 4 HOURS x Six (ITD Price Action)

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

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New USD data will be published tomorrow:
> Core Retail Sales
> Empire State Manufacturing Index

This will bring back a lot of volatility into the market, which is currently missing.

Note

LEVEL VALID UNTIL PUBLICATION = USD DATA

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN 2 HOURS

Note

USD data = POSITIVE:
> POSITIVE | Core retail sales
> POSITIVE | Retail sales m/m
> POSITIVE | Import Prices m/m
> NEGATIVE | Empire State Manufacturing Index

MEANS:
> DXY (USD) - RISING
> OTHER - FALLING

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

Tomorrow is the FOMC Meeting (USD) which will set the direction until the next.
> prepare your trades for this event, because it will cause random volatility

Note

DAILY CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH

> The candle formed a "BEARISH ENGULFING"
= this indicates a continuation of the sell-off and confirms the bullish momentum in the DXY (USD) and its data published yesterday.

> We will not see a recovery in today's intra-day, but the ab-sale will continue tomorrow with high probability.
> The MA (200) - serve as support.
> The MA (5, 8, 20, 50, 100,) - serve as resistance.

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> FOMC MEETING IN 2 HOURS <
= RANDOM VOLATILITY

Note

The "FOMC meeting" revealed that the U.S. Federal Reserve is very likely to want to continue its restrictive course.
> Furthermore, criticism regarding the approach is becoming louder and louder, as a monetary policy that is too tight would have very negative effects.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

TAGES - SCHLUSSKURS = BÄRISCH

> Die Kerze formte keine hervorzuhebende Formation
= das einzige anzumerken ist der längere Schatten unter dem Schlusskurs

> Der „SCHLUSSKURS“ erfolgte unter dem HTF-POI (0.593 USD), welches als Widerstand bestätigt werden muss.
> Zusätzliche Unterstützung erfahren wir durch den Aufwärtstrendkanal (Türkis), welcher in Kombination mit den FIB-Leveln und dem 100 MA ein signifikantes Level darstellt.

> Die „FIBONACCI-LEVEL“ der Abwärtsbewegung = 0.75 & 0.786 – stehen aus zur Abarbeitung und könnten im Verlauf der Woche ins Spiel kommen.
> Die sich darunter befindende „DEMAND - ZONE“ dient als Unterstützung.
> Die MA (100, 200) - dienen als Unterstützung.
> Die MA (5, 8, 20, 50) - dienen als Widerstand.

1 TAG = 4 STUNDEN x Sechs (ITD Price Action)

Note

USD data released today was positive, supporting further upside for the DXY.
> This movement will put further selling pressure on all markets.

Note

! I UPDATED THE DAILY CANDLE INFO PER ACCIDENT IN GERMAN - THE FOLLOWING WRITTEN WORDS IS THE ORIGINAL TEXT FOR THE UPDATE !

DAILY CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH

> The candle did not form a formation worth highlighting
= the only thing to note is the longer shadow below the closing price

> The "CLOSE" price was below the HTF POI (0.593 USD), which needs to be confirmed as resistance.
> We experience additional support from the uptrend channel (turquoise), which in combination with the FIB levels and the 100 MA represents a significant level.

> The "FIBONACCI LEVEL" of the downside = 0.75 & 0.786 - are pending to be worked off and could come into play during the week.
> The "DEMAND - ZONE" located below serves as support.
> The MA (100, 200) - serve as support.
> The MA (5, 8, 20, 50) - serve as resistance.

1 DAY = 4 HOURS x Six (ITD Price Action)

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN 3 HOURS

Note

The USD data released today was negative, supporting downside for the DXY.
> This movement will put less selling pressure on all markets.
> Still there is tomorrow more to come with the „Unemployment Claims“ which will manifest the decision a bit more.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN 20 MIN

Note

The USD data released today turned out POSITIVE & support a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlating markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

HTF - DAY - BEARISH ENGULFING

High probability that the sale will continue.

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASED IN 3 HOURS ="Revised UoM Consumer Confidence"<
> NEWS RELEASED IN 4 HOURS ="Fed Chair Powell Speaks"<

Note

The USD data released today was NEGATIVE and supports a FALLING DXY.
> However, we have the Jackson Hole today, which has higher weighting than the data released.
> This takes selling pressure out of the FX majors and correlated markets.
= If the falling scenario in the DXY is confirmed, one can position LONG until the next NEWS release - in his selected pair.
= Personally, I am still weighted on the SHORT side.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

Tomorrow will be published some USD - NEWS, which will give the market - bias.
> Over today, we have seen almost no movement, which confirms the relevance of tomorrow's news.
> With high probability, no market movement will happen until the publication.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! ATTENTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 1 HOUR ="S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 2 HOURS ="CB Consumer Confidence"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 2 HOURS ="JOLTS Job Openings"<

Note

USD data released today was NEGATIVE and supports a FALLLENDING DXY.
> This takes the selling pressure out of the FX majors and correlated markets.
= Should the falling scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself LONG - in one's selected pair - until the next NEWS release.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! ATTENTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 4 HOURS ="ADP Non-Farm Employment Change"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 4 HOURS ="Prelim GDP q/q"<

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! ATTENTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 5 HOURS ="ADP Non-Farm Employment Change"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 5 HOURS ="Prelim GDP q/q"<

Until the data is released, we can expect SLOW - "Price Action".

Note

USD data released today was POSITIVE & supportive of a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlated markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! ATTENTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 3 HOURS ="Non-Farm Employment Change & Unemployment Rate"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 5 HOURS ="ISM Manufacturing PMI<

Note

The USD data released today were mostly POSITIVE & support a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlated markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

The first relevant news will be published on Wednesday,
which is why we can assume that the share price will continue in the adopted direction until then. (= SHORT)

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

The "Price Action" was very low during the day, which is why the market hardly moved = the last uploaded levels are still valid until a significant movement.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

Tomorrow we will get the new USD NEWS "ISM Services PMI", so the market will be quieter until the release.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! ATTENTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 1 HOUR ="ISM Services PMI"<

Note

The USD data released today were mostly POSITIVE & support a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlated markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN 4 HOURS =„Unemployment Claims“<

Note

The USD data released today were mostly POSITIVE & support a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlated markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

No significant NEWS will be released today, so the "Price Action" will be steady and slow.

Note

Over the day, there was nearly no movement because of a missing NEWS event.
> The weekly Candle will close soon and will tell us the drive plan for the next week.

Note

On Wednesday, the NEWS (USD) releases start until Friday.
> Until then, we can expect a slow "Price Action".
> The major market participants will most likely wait for the new data until they actively participate in the market action.

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN 1 HOURS <

Note

The USD data released today were mostly POSITIVE & support a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlated markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

! CAUTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 15 MINUTES ="Main refinancing rate (EUR)"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 30 MINUTES ="Core PPI m/m (USD)"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 30 MINUTES ="Unemployment Claims (USD)"<

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! CAUTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 1.5 HOURS ="Empire State Manufacturing Index"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 3 HOURS ="Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment<

Note

LEVEL UPDATE - VALID UNTIL TODAY'S "FOMC" EVENT

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN - 3 HOURS ="FOMC"<

Note

The USD data released today turned out NEUTRAL & are thus already priced in the market.
= This means that we have to wait for the next "NEWS release" to get a clear direction.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

LEVEL UPDATE - VALID UNTIL TODAYS NEWS EVENT

Note

! CAUTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 1 HOUR ="Unemployment Claims"<

Note

The USD data released today were mostly POSITIVE & support a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlated markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 3 HOURS ="Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI<

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN 45 MINUTES =„ISM Manufacturing PMI“<

Note

Unfortunately, I made a mistake and displayed next week's "Dates & News".
> the announced appointment has not taken place for this reason and the post before is irrelevant.

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> News Release in – 4 HOURS (USD) -:- CB CONSUMER CONFIDENCE -:-

Note

| RESULT INFLUENCE |
> The published data turned out -:- NEGATIVE -:- for the USD.
> This removes, from the FX majors & correlated markets, the selling pressure "TEMPORARY".

* As soon as the weakness in the DXY is confirmed, one can position -:- LONG -:- until the next NEWS release. *

Disclaimer