this is an interesting one, that doesn't look impulsive to me its all 3's , so i think its a B wave that will lead to a lower low. its a long for now but id keep a close eye up near that target and take some profit if it starts to roll over
Note
slight change to the original ide - i think a double topNote
possibly goes a bit higher cos everyone will jump on but i dont think itll go proper on one, itll just wick and come back downNote
might get stacked abc's so that would count as A in that scenario, still looks corrective to meNote
that kinda thingNote
if we take the view that the markets going up - impulsive - then this must be going down -impulsive so if we are looking for a 5 wave down move on this, then that must be the 1-2, in which case a 32% dump on usdtd, which i think does make that fractal play more likelyNote
i think theres a 5 wave in there so poss we get an abc here back to the golden pocket -618 , - cos thats what we had on the minor 1 belowNote
it could potentially just break up from here to the 5.618 - on a big dxy move down. but i dont see a c waveat the top there , its 12345, a so far to my eyesNote
soz that 2 was meant to be there, not where i had it aboveNote
if we assume its an impulsive move and not corrective as i thought at first then a move up off of that minor wave would put it there somewhere, in that overhead resistance, so yeh, can buy thatNote
its in the rough area of that fractal play so adds a bit of weight to that ideaNote
so that could either be 1-2 of 5 - if it comes back to a higher low - or corrective like i thought if its a lower low, - id imagine a move that size would be market wide - maybe dxy trying to come back , smashes everything back down again- kinda fits cos a lot of alts are on 3 waves, so can come all the way back to the top of 1 without breaking the countNote
full count for this minor wave - that is some ugly shit, but its a 5 wave soNote
its possible we get some sort of corrective move here - the minor 1 threw up a B wave that tagged the 2.618 of itself, i think itll be dependent on what the dollar does here as to whether we get something parabolic - or something more corrective like what we had off of the top of the minor one- circledNote
there is fib confluence off of these little micros up into that areaNote
looks like a 535-abc corrective move - same as the on the minor 1 , it went quite deep on the c wave on the minor 1, but i feel it could hold above the wavetop here and break up, both outcomes are possibleNote
it could be like that and we only have an A here or...Note
or more like that, but either way theresca 5 wave move up off of the floor and now the makings or poss the end of a corrective move , - so looking pretty goodNote
third poss is that its only halfway though the corrective move - since below it tagged the 2.618 of itself, - sometimes - not always but sometimes it will tag the same level which it hasnt done yetNote
with these fractal ideas, youre not looking for the exact same thing - youre looking for something akin to - ie if you have a B wave off the top of a micro 1-2 on a 1 min chart ,that then does a 345 and becomes impulsive, then the likelihood of getting something similar at the top of the 5 wave increasesNote
i mean you can see it right there the micro 1-2 had an abc that went above the wave top, now that behaviour has just repeated at the top of this wave, the same12345-abc structure, just have to be on the lookout for all possibilities like we might only be half way through it etcNote
of course you have to assume that theres a 12345 within the very first up move that you cant see you could go down to 1 second time frames to check that but it would be like trying to find the higgs boson , eventually it would get so small that you couldnt see it so would still have to make an educated guess on if its a 5 wave or notNote
its just a different way of looking at market structure - its no golden egg, but it can present small clues which can be helpful in your overall trading strategyNote
so many traders rely on indicators but ignore the actual structure, as soon as you put 2 lines on a chart thats where your focus is gonna be, the structure has a lot more to offer if you take some time to really study itNote
like maybe you use a macd/rsi strategy, well these indicators are telling something about current market structure - so why not just look at the structure direct right? i mean its right there, might as well have a little looksy, its like at christmas trying to guess what the present is thats fully wrapped, - just unwrap the thing and look, and then you'lll know what it isNote
somaybe your strategy says yes due a break up, - well now you have 2 reasons tomake a bet, not jut 1Note
so in this case it is starting to break up, maybe to somebody else that was a bb breakout trade, but the point is its another tool in your confirmation boxNote
now we have a move very similar to this, what will happen next, lets seeNote
and now we just need that and can begin to start leaning toward yes this is impulsive at this time frameNote
it could still be impulsive/corrective as in part of a 535 up, but by careful charting that you can normally make some kind of call on it thats a bit more than just a guessNote
all of those parabolic crypto charts youve seen, they were all born here right on the 1 minute time frame . food for thoughtNote
now its begining to look more like this, youll find that there will come a point where both ideas cant be in agreement often youll see the 1 min candles bunch up at this point and lots of volume as it tries to find a direction, and then it will choose and 9 times out of ten follw the pattern more or lessNote
anyway a few things ive found there along the way spending way too much time immersed in charts, good luck im afk for a while i need cat food - imagine a cat that eats more than a human but never ever gets any bigger.. even tho it sleeps 22 hours a day,Note
Note
you cant trade it because you cant see into the future and you definitely cant trade it with leverage lol - speaking from experience, its just interestingNote
i get a fair amount of stick on here for pointing out the fractal nature of market structure, i go to this analogy, imagine a fat kid with small hands, all hes ever wanted to do is play guitar, but hes a small fat kid with small fat hands he goes along with how all the books say it should be done, but a fat kid with small hands cant do an 8 fret stretch , sooner or later if he wants to follow that passion, hes gonna have to throw those books in the bin and find a new technique to achieve the same sort of thing. overcoming your limitations goes a long way in trading i think , like gann charts might be the best thing in the world but thats not gonna help you if you get a 4 hour migraine every time you look at one, we've all got different skills, if you cant get your head around one thing , look at something else, theres no right or wrong way to do this imo , eventually that fit kid grew up to be bb king or jimi hendrix, overcame the limitations invented new techniques , for some its all been solved for others theres always something new to learn always another angle to look at , i definitely fall into the latter, to me its just a big fat puzzle that needs solving ,Note
might push up a bit more first thoNote
nope, changed my mindNote
so could still be in an abc up like below that tags the 2.618, then comes backNote
looks like usdt.d is gonna have a crack at that oh resistance, but i dunno i think this might just keep creeping up and then do its correction on the 2.618Note
i mean it could break down -usdtd, but right now it 5 up and a higher low so could easily be a 535 to the upsideNote
anyway, im done here for now, ive spammed your inboxes enough for now, hope ive at least made a few of you get more into market structure, hope these recent calls go well but i probably wont be updating them much from here, not trying to achieve anything here on trading view other than share a few thoughts and some stuff ive found along the way , and i dont like the pressure of making calls much not because i dont like bein wrong, its just the thought that someone out there with not much money might be following and then its a bullshit call. feels bad man, anyway . later, godd luckNote
since this has had a few views i just wanna give a shout out to another trader on here , without his charts and his take on fib, i probably would of got bored and taken up Morris Dancing. if im unsure of a count, hes my go to guy- thekevinNote
hasnt posted in a while but all the charts are still there, worth a butchersNote
wasnt gonna do any more updates on this cos i was off somewhere today, but the weathers a bit shite, so will probs keep my eye on it for a bit, im only looking at this cos its tough for me, just a bit of practice really , im not on it so can be hard to stay interestedNote
never anything obvious with this, give me a micro cap any day, this chart looks like an explosion in a mattress factoryNote
tradingview.com/x/9El9TjXW/, tricky, cos on the one hand i can count 5 in therewith decent enough fib confluence and on the 5th still got the confluence, but normally id wanna see 4.618 , but hasnt tagged yet and the rsi looks like its starting to struggle a bit,Note
Note
if we get that, and a higher low, then i think its a long from there to like 1.40 maybe 1.50Note
bit higher actually 1.80 and a bit of madness, probs can push it to 2 dollarsNote
right im done on this for now, if im able, ill take a look later and see how i did. if im wrong oh well, this is a difficult chart for me, so i wont cry or anythingNote
and just to say ive turned all notifications off, so if i dont reply sorry, lot of folk get pissed off cos i wont conform to their ideas about how to do this shit, im not here to tell anybody how to suck eggs, theres no right or wrong way to any of this, and anybody that claims their way is the best way is full of shit, so bring the hate, im not gonna see it anyway, i didnt listen to the experts im not gonna listen to graduates from the royal school of trust me bro, ta ta for nowNote
A fractal is a never-ending pattern. Fractals are infinitely complex patterns that are self-similar across different scales. They are created by repeating a simple process over and over in an ongoing feedback loop.Note
now go and take any bit of structure from any market at any time scale from a high to a low and invert it, - then do it again. its not hard because its a bit fractal - its the literal definition of fractal, ie when you start pulling it about it all looks the sameNote
you can never know the form ahead of time- you cant see into the future so have no idea if the inversion is gonna be a 2% move or a 50% move, but that doesnt change the fact that you can make up any chart by repeating a simple process over and over , and that is the literal definition of fractalNote
and why wouldnt it be? look at astro physics biology, rock formations, lightning sea shells- its everywhere , - we live in a fractal universe . laws are lawsNote
why do you think your fib tool works?Note
The golden ratio, also known as the golden number, golden proportion, or the divine proportion, is a ratio between two numbers that equals approximately 1.618. Usually written as the Greek letter phi, it is strongly associated with the Fibonacci sequence, a series of numbers wherein each number is added to the last.Note
any other conclusion would be ...illogicalNote
first spock was the best spockNote
A feedback loop is a process in which the outputs of a system are circled back and used as inputs.Note
all looking at the same charts, plotting the same lines using fib to guide you, hmmmm..... have to have a little think about thatNote
every time you make a call, you are referencing the structure in some way if youre doing ta, 99% of the time, and then you're looking at your indicators - which also reference the structure in some way- and then you make a decision, doesnt matter if you trade patterns, bb/rsi some trading bot youre always gonna be referencing the existing structure in some wayNote
its just a fractal pattern created by a feedback loop, - the chart is the output you/we are the circled back inputsNote
in my humble opinion, if you wanna trash my calls fine im not perfect shock, its hard shit to fathom, but if youre gonna tell me no this isnt fractal, have a good think. this is just an opinion, but ive delved pretty deep, i cant draw any other conclusion from my journey down fractal laneNote
self-similar across different scalesNote
poss a dump on dji which causes dollar to rise which causes a crypto pull backNote
dji is done imo - proper done, and not being a trader i have no idea how that is gonna shake things up- my feeble brain says selling large amounts of dji is the same as buying fiat, but that might be way off, i just going by what im seeing in structure nothing elseNote
i know thats a bold statement- but everyone has normalcy bias- the titanic is un f*****g sinkable right? but i look at the charts and and i look at the world and think hmmmmNote
i mean look at that dji chart - really? go look at it on a 1 month andv then right after go and look at any shit coin that got rugged - it just looks like a micro cap shit coin chart,Note
everyones in, the whole worlds in, even your dopey mate down the pub's in trading apple on his iphone , if your dopey mate down the pub is buying apple on his iphone then im walking the other wayNote
i mean look at the amount of propaganda we are now bombarded with on a daily basis- how many of us think that what we are getting spoon fed is anywhere near the truth? you think that doesnt have an effect on how you see the world? the decisions you make? i dont do tv, i dont do social media - apart from this cos i have an interest and its better than gaming, i dont read newspapers, magazines i dont watch news at all ever, to me its a shit film with a third rate cast and a tired plot, i left the theatre decades ago, and i can tell you that it definitely has an affect, turn all that shit off and youll be happier fo rit trust me on thatNote
you cant make good decisions if all the data youre getting is moody, people can lie, media can lie politicians can lie- but the charts, not so muchNote
i mean isnt it obvious you have a system where everyone makes calls essentially on existing structure, and then feeds data back into that system in the form of a buy or a sell - this is a feed back loop, the same as when youve got the gain on your amp cranked all the way up and then you stand too close, make those harmonics really scream outNote
not convinced yet, i wanna see what happens when dji opensNote
excuse typos, ive got a 10 year old keyboar with all the characters worn off im going on muscle memoryNote
no idea on timing , i know sweet fa about macro economics maybe there will be an overlap maybe it will take a day or 2- no idea i just do structure, no idea whats going on out there in the world cos i dont follow any of it, its all a production to me. i focus on the charts , thats itNote
you get to hear about the big events via people, and thats plenty enough info for me. everything else is just bum steers all the way,Note
self-similar across different scales.Note
and the band played on....Note
thanks for watching. im done now , shits starting to get real here and i need to focus on other stuff. stay safe out there and good luckDisclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.