So I use a target based system which historically accurate. and yes I do know that if you stay in a trade long enough it will return to a previous price point at some stage :-)!!.
Once it hits there is also an Long target on shorter term time frame which its is pencilled to hit after pretty soon after (if it doesnt head there first). In short if it heads straight to the SHORT target first then I will go long off that target to the LONG target as I would expect a healthy move
Tip - Do not trade SHORT on this one unless you are;
1. Me on a crazy day
or
2. A gambler
or
3. Like me, just can't believe that my normally 90% accurate manual system could hit a target for Oil down at this level given the current global situation.
The question is - does the fact that recession markers present in global economies (drop in consumer spend/consumption and then demand) lead to stereo typical oil price collapse, or, will the fact that the second biggest supplier of oil is being sanctioned and that OPEC is cutting production (just because they can!!), thus leading to a much inflated pricing!
I've been wrong many times and will continue to be wrong in the Future :-)
I'm going to start posting my idea's again - so hopefully can show the outline of my method!