Bearish case - where is the support?
Updated
So in the morning I published the idea 
Today we see the evidence that bearish case is likely to play out if bulls don't react to immediately return back to the upper pitchfork range. There is a head and shoulders pattern forming (shown on the second chart) which doesn't look good for bulls. Now as a complement, we have to examine the down side and prepare for the worse: the $1.8 level mentioned in the idea.
Here, I provide the details on exactly why $1.75-2 range could offer somewhat good support. From the first chart, I overlay the pitchfork with the fibonacci - both will act as strong support from a technical point of view, which roughly is ~$1.75 level.
Note that Coinbase chart does not include prior price action and some of the earlier charts we can pull is Kraken, so on the second chart I am using Kraken chart and immediately we can identify a parallel channel, which also validates the ~$1.75 level. Furthermore, a weak support of $2 level can also be identified, it is an integer psychological level. From volume profile analysis, $1.75 is a lot more traded and is considered as a stronger support.
So...is it set to visit those levels? No, in fact as I type the price hasn't exactly gone lower than the 0.618 retracement level (~2.31) which means the bulls are putting up perhaps, the last fight. The bears clearly have an upper hand today and the increased volume from the last 12 hour candle indicated the significance of the fight. Unless we have a decisive bullish engulfing candle the bull case is fairly weak so the odds are with the bears. Once we clearly lose the 2.31 last defense I do expect to see rapid decline to $2 as there isn't really trading interest in between from a volume perspective.
Stay safe!
Today we see the evidence that bearish case is likely to play out if bulls don't react to immediately return back to the upper pitchfork range. There is a head and shoulders pattern forming (shown on the second chart) which doesn't look good for bulls. Now as a complement, we have to examine the down side and prepare for the worse: the $1.8 level mentioned in the idea.
Here, I provide the details on exactly why $1.75-2 range could offer somewhat good support. From the first chart, I overlay the pitchfork with the fibonacci - both will act as strong support from a technical point of view, which roughly is ~$1.75 level.
Note that Coinbase chart does not include prior price action and some of the earlier charts we can pull is Kraken, so on the second chart I am using Kraken chart and immediately we can identify a parallel channel, which also validates the ~$1.75 level. Furthermore, a weak support of $2 level can also be identified, it is an integer psychological level. From volume profile analysis, $1.75 is a lot more traded and is considered as a stronger support.
So...is it set to visit those levels? No, in fact as I type the price hasn't exactly gone lower than the 0.618 retracement level (~2.31) which means the bulls are putting up perhaps, the last fight. The bears clearly have an upper hand today and the increased volume from the last 12 hour candle indicated the significance of the fight. Unless we have a decisive bullish engulfing candle the bull case is fairly weak so the odds are with the bears. Once we clearly lose the 2.31 last defense I do expect to see rapid decline to $2 as there isn't really trading interest in between from a volume perspective.
Stay safe!
Note
Bearish action underwayTrade closed: target reached
Bulls go!
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