Why Tezos could have bottomed
Updated
Tezos has been consolidating at a low price level for a prolonged period of time, I've seen many traders flip the thesis from long to short to downside of $1.8 level. I think those opinions are valid and I do believe it's a possibility because, this is crypto and Tezos doesn't have its own mind yet. It very much is under the influence of Defi craze and BTC volatility. That said, I haven't actually seen a convincing evidence of further downside on the USD pair yet and here is my analysis of the long term price action.
1) On the first chart, it appears that a clear Elliot Wave has been concluded and we retraced to 0.618 level. This is the standard retracement level.
2) On the second chart, I tried many other things to try to decipher what the market collectively wants. Eventually I land on the modified Schiff pitchfork as it seems to make sense. As we can see the price hasn't breached the upper green to middle line range it operated in since the March crash, although it is knocking at the door aggressively.
If the bulls continue to defend the pitchfork middle line successfully in the next few days we can see price retest the 2.75 level (0.5 retracement) again. Flipping that can trigger bull appetite as it is actually a liquid zone from VPVR analysis.
Can we go lower? Yes. If we do break down from the current pitchfork channel, I don't believe the 0.618 retracement can still offer a strong support - either 0.236 level retracement (~$1.8) or the lower green line from the pitchfork should provide support. However, if it does go that low it potentially violates the Elliot Wave theory which says ABC retracement does not go to Wave 1 level and 1.8 is where the Wave 1 ends. Therefore if price goes to level low we may need to redo the wave count.
Overall, based on the current price level I am still cautiously long and that's why I gave a long thesis not long ago. Hopefully this analysis provides more insight to your trade decisions.
1) On the first chart, it appears that a clear Elliot Wave has been concluded and we retraced to 0.618 level. This is the standard retracement level.
2) On the second chart, I tried many other things to try to decipher what the market collectively wants. Eventually I land on the modified Schiff pitchfork as it seems to make sense. As we can see the price hasn't breached the upper green to middle line range it operated in since the March crash, although it is knocking at the door aggressively.
If the bulls continue to defend the pitchfork middle line successfully in the next few days we can see price retest the 2.75 level (0.5 retracement) again. Flipping that can trigger bull appetite as it is actually a liquid zone from VPVR analysis.
Can we go lower? Yes. If we do break down from the current pitchfork channel, I don't believe the 0.618 retracement can still offer a strong support - either 0.236 level retracement (~$1.8) or the lower green line from the pitchfork should provide support. However, if it does go that low it potentially violates the Elliot Wave theory which says ABC retracement does not go to Wave 1 level and 1.8 is where the Wave 1 ends. Therefore if price goes to level low we may need to redo the wave count.
Overall, based on the current price level I am still cautiously long and that's why I gave a long thesis not long ago. Hopefully this analysis provides more insight to your trade decisions.
Note
Wow price moved right after my post as if it's watching, and gives me the evidence lol. Well then if we close below the mid line of pitchfork highly likely down we go!Note
Be sure to check out the sequel - bearish case outlook 
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