What I see is that the market is still in a bearish correction phase. I was wrong about it trying to bounce off of the September FOMC High.
November 1st is Non Farm Payrolls
November 5th is Election Day
November 7th is FOMC. This is the most important day of the month.
November 13th is CPI
November 28th is Thanksgiving
I am really curious as to where price will be on November 7th on FOMC. I won't really know until I see that candle.
To me, what is happening is countertrend bearish into support. Trying to form a bottom at 41,300 and then bounce off of that support. I am curious to see if price will get within a hair of the July FOMC purple line but NOT break it. I bet that this price is defended and will not get touched.
Using range expansion of the top, I have it in 0.5 increments.
Price is still in a downtrend. It was forming a consolidation between 0.5 and 1.0 before the next leg of the downtrend fell through. It is now currently in-between 1.5 and 2.0.
Price seems to be forming resistance levels at the half levels and support levels at the whole levels.
2.5 times range expansions are the Dow's favorite to hit before reversing.
I am expecting price to hit the green line and NOT BREACH the purple FOMC level from July.
November 1st is Non Farm Payrolls
November 5th is Election Day
November 7th is FOMC. This is the most important day of the month.
November 13th is CPI
November 28th is Thanksgiving
I am really curious as to where price will be on November 7th on FOMC. I won't really know until I see that candle.
To me, what is happening is countertrend bearish into support. Trying to form a bottom at 41,300 and then bounce off of that support. I am curious to see if price will get within a hair of the July FOMC purple line but NOT break it. I bet that this price is defended and will not get touched.
Using range expansion of the top, I have it in 0.5 increments.
Price is still in a downtrend. It was forming a consolidation between 0.5 and 1.0 before the next leg of the downtrend fell through. It is now currently in-between 1.5 and 2.0.
Price seems to be forming resistance levels at the half levels and support levels at the whole levels.
2.5 times range expansions are the Dow's favorite to hit before reversing.
I am expecting price to hit the green line and NOT BREACH the purple FOMC level from July.
Note
A measured move takes price to the tick to the green line target of 41,360 exactly. Note
So far the first trading day of the month bounced off of the FOMC open of September and ripped higher into the FOMC High as a pullback in this down move. I am expecting more down price action until it starts to form a bottoming pattern Note
Price is in a retracement (which means bullish) Price retraces either in price or time
Price retracement means prices go up to find more premium
Time retracement means prices drift sideways until the mean catches up.
I am expecting the purple FOMC open price of 41,925 to be used as a resistance level in the future
Note
Here is another scenario that I can see playing out if price doesn't continue on with the trend channel. I can see it popping up higher for a better price and selling off with the FOMC on the 7th
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.