Here is my outlook for the overnight and cash session for Tuesday, February 8, 2022! My overall price direction is Neutral. Price continues to dance around chopping the heads off of twitchy traders who act all FOMO. For me, YM offers the least risk in the overnight session. I am going to set up a set it and forget it trade and hope for the best while I sleep
YM Long - Pullback to below and enter on the recross of 34860 with a stop below 34740 and ultimate target of 35075. Price could extend to 35190 without having to create a new high and stays well within the weekly fib range YM Short Fade - Let price peek above 35190 and fade on the way back down. (Be careful here, as I see a lot of room to the upside around 35433 and we are trading above the daily 200SMA) YM Short Breakout - If price decides to come unhinged overnight, a short could be possible from 34825 down to 34754 and 34681. A stop would need to be set greater 34960 There is overlap to where I would short versus where I would go long, so please make sure you use caution and your own judgment to enter trades.
I will not be setting up trades in ES or NQ, however here are the levels I would be looking at for long and short. Set stops at 2.5 ATR to account for volatility and remember to position size accordingly and use Micro contracts
ES Long - Pullback to 4462 ES Short Fade - Peek above and short at 4504 ES Short Breakout - Below 4447 (Breakout to me means the directional bias has changed. While there could be a short opportunity above this level, I am looking for confirmation, FIRST)
NQ Long - Pullback below and wait for recross of 14479 NQ Short Fade - Somewhere between 14721-14738 NQ Short Breakout 14400 (Breakout to me means the directional bias has changed. While there could be a short opportunity above this level, I am looking for confirmation, FIRST)
On a side note, I always think to myself "wow that entry seems so far away" and yet I am amazed at how often we retrace back to the entry level. Don't follow your heart, follow the chart! While there will always be trading opportunities in both directions, I continue to build my trading strategy around daily and weekly pivot levels in relationship to EMA and SMA values. I rely on market internal data such as Advance/Decline, Tick and Put/Call ratios to help time my directional entry.
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