Short

ZARJPY at risk of falling a lot.

Updated

Generally speaking last week (Friday mostly) the South African Rand lost lots of ground against most currencies and I would consider the move as an impulse that should see follow through.

ZARJPY is in a long term downtrend and could resume it very soon. More details below.

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A closer look: the whole of 2016 and most of 2017 were spent building a rising wedge as a corrective pattern. The wedge was broken at the beginning of the month of August and confirmed by a backtest last week.

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4H chart:

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My plan is to sell the pair with a stop above the previous high. Should things turn really south we could see a drop below 6 as a final target over the next couple of years (very pessimistic scenario)

RudiMarin

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