Overall I feel yields will be rising rather than falling, I am not concerned of what the catalyst might be to cause this but simply following the price action particularly on the 10YR Yield. So that being said I am bearish the 30YR treasury. However, if price retraces down to the lower zone drawn (113) we could see a nice rally up to the higher/larger zone drawn.
At the higher zone (117-118) I would make sense that this un-tested area where the supply exceeded the demand would likely hold and we would see a nice short play out. The target(s) on the short side will be updated once price action has come to fruition as price moves into these zones but a move down to at least the April lows of 106 isn't hard to imagine.
At the higher zone (117-118) I would make sense that this un-tested area where the supply exceeded the demand would likely hold and we would see a nice short play out. The target(s) on the short side will be updated once price action has come to fruition as price moves into these zones but a move down to at least the April lows of 106 isn't hard to imagine.
Trade active
Alright price has come into the 117'02 zone - patience will be key here as price can and might rally above 118'01 in a fake out style move before we know what card we should play. OR the other scenario is the tail that has occurred on the down side on this 4hr timeframe could be the only reaction we get and the 30yr continues higher to test 118'21.I'm watching for few more 4 hour candle closes with evident wicks to the upside would plus a bearish 4 hour candle close - alert has been set at 116'25
Trade closed: target reached
Alright - going down to the hourly chart you can see some good basing and we just tested the 117'02 level again I am good to take a stab at 1 contract short here - stop at 117'23Note
Entered short at 116'19Note
Stop is currently at 116'05 going into the weekend - I am okay with any gap risk for this one and will monitor on the open at 4pm MST on Sunday. Target is 114'10. I also realized I didn't enter these notes properly as the "trade update" effectively was to activate and one to close so maybe the admins can update these for me. I will enter proper notes next time.Note
Target hit of 114'10. $2218.75 @ 1 contract ($31.25/contract, for my notes only)
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.