ZILUSD 1W Cup & Handle 31/03/22
ZILUSD is showing potential cup & handle structure.
Since March 2020 we have seen a wave 1-5 up to ATH, with an almost year-long ABC correction from May 2021 onward. From the base of C, which is the 0.382 fib level of wave 1-5 (shown as 0.618 on the chart for target extension purposes above), we've had a large volume move,
From Elliot wave theory we may deduce that this recent large volume move may have been an impulse wave 1 of the next 1-5 wave up. The RSI is trending at extreme positive and stochastic momentum has crossed up. As this is a weekly chart (a slow mover) this may dictate that the next up oscillation has started, but should logically take many weeks to play out.
For ZILUSD to maintain this healthy posture, it must now on a weekly chart maintain its RSI above 50 (or preferably inside the blue bullish control zone), alongside stochastic continuing upside and breaching the 50 level (without contracting) for confirmation.
This most recent volume move has been large and quick, therefore I am expecting some sort of slowdown here (also to be dictated on this weekly close if RSI closes with a decreasing positive gradient). Healthy price action would be to range below ATH, potentially for several months, to gather strength for the push upwards (as drawn in red pen).
There is of course possibility for this to continue up from now, however, is a less probable scenario considering the % gain seen in the past 2 weeks., and the fact that price felt resistance and stopped at the range of the previous high at wave 5.
Looking at the 1D timeframe, there is also a potential 1-5 micro wave completed here:
A worrying scenario would be losing the 0.786 fib level on large volume red candles, and invalidation for the current handle comes in at breaking wave C at the 0.618 fib level.
Not financial advice and always DYOR.
Since March 2020 we have seen a wave 1-5 up to ATH, with an almost year-long ABC correction from May 2021 onward. From the base of C, which is the 0.382 fib level of wave 1-5 (shown as 0.618 on the chart for target extension purposes above), we've had a large volume move,
From Elliot wave theory we may deduce that this recent large volume move may have been an impulse wave 1 of the next 1-5 wave up. The RSI is trending at extreme positive and stochastic momentum has crossed up. As this is a weekly chart (a slow mover) this may dictate that the next up oscillation has started, but should logically take many weeks to play out.
For ZILUSD to maintain this healthy posture, it must now on a weekly chart maintain its RSI above 50 (or preferably inside the blue bullish control zone), alongside stochastic continuing upside and breaching the 50 level (without contracting) for confirmation.
This most recent volume move has been large and quick, therefore I am expecting some sort of slowdown here (also to be dictated on this weekly close if RSI closes with a decreasing positive gradient). Healthy price action would be to range below ATH, potentially for several months, to gather strength for the push upwards (as drawn in red pen).
There is of course possibility for this to continue up from now, however, is a less probable scenario considering the % gain seen in the past 2 weeks., and the fact that price felt resistance and stopped at the range of the previous high at wave 5.
Looking at the 1D timeframe, there is also a potential 1-5 micro wave completed here:
A worrying scenario would be losing the 0.786 fib level on large volume red candles, and invalidation for the current handle comes in at breaking wave C at the 0.618 fib level.
Not financial advice and always DYOR.
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