Downward pressure to continue for now - but bullish overall
Updated
Although we are experiencing a period of downward pressure in the near term group, the overall sentiment remains bullish. We could see another move to begin the formation of the next higher high during the next 2d candle or the following one.
Mid Term group of timeframes (5d, 6d, 9d, 12d), the Green is also higher than the Energy indicating bullish sentiment throughout the group.
In the short term group of timeframes ( 90m, 3h, 6h, 12h) the Energy is higher than the Green EMA in the 3h and 6h indicating bearish sentiment. In the 90m the Red RSI has closed making contact with the Green EMA as it falls also indicating bearish sentiment. We are also at the risk in the 90m of the Blue LSMA crossing below 50, it has already turned down and if continuing we can expect the Bollinger Bands to expand and the price action continue down between the Aqua/Orange lower BBs, particularly if the Red RSI also continues down below 50. We also see a similar position in the 3h with the Red RSI and the Blue LSMA both currently below 50 and the Red RSI making contact with the Green EMA as it falls. If we close like this in 3m the Energy will drop below 50 and the price action will continue between the Aqua/Orange lower BBs potentially wicking down to the Red lower BB.
The Red RSI and Blue LSMA have both crossed below 50 in concert in the 12h with the Red RSI simultaneously making a bearish cross below the Blue LSMA.
We also have a downward pressure race between the Energy in the 12h and the Red RSI in the daily.
When the Red RSI fell below 50 in the 12h a downward pressure race was triggered. In order for upward pressure to resume, we first need to see the Energy in the daily CLOSE above 50 in the 12h before the Red RSI in the daily CROSSES below 50. If the Energy does win the race, we need to see the Green MA higher than the Energy in at least the three preceding halved timeframes from the timeframe in which the race was triggered. If the Red RSI wins we then have a race between the Energy in the daily and the Red RSI in the 2d etc. This downward pressure race has cascaded up from lower TFs. Until the Energy decisively wins the race, we do not have a chance for reversal to upward pressure in the relevant timeframes.
It looks like the Red RSI in the daily is favourite to win the race meaning a continuation of downward pressure for now.
I'm going to mark this neutral for now as even though we are in a local period of downward pressure and bearish sentiment in the short term timeframes, we are bullish in the near term and mid term timeframes.
Just to point out that downward pressure does not necessarily mean significant downward price action, but sideways at best, downwards at worst (depending on your perspective)
As mentioned in previous publications, these markets can change with very little notice. These changes initially manifest themselves in the lower timeframes and propagate up through the timeframes. Nothing is set in stone. Unless you are day trading, you cannot benefit from these early warning signals.
As always - this is not financial advice but just my view of current market dynamics.
One has to be aware that analyses are done on the basis of what the indicators are saying at the time and things can change. It is important to always monitor the scalping group of timeframes as we will see changes propagate up from there.
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Trade safe
aBL
Short term group of timeframes
Mid Term group of timeframes (5d, 6d, 9d, 12d), the Green is also higher than the Energy indicating bullish sentiment throughout the group.
In the short term group of timeframes ( 90m, 3h, 6h, 12h) the Energy is higher than the Green EMA in the 3h and 6h indicating bearish sentiment. In the 90m the Red RSI has closed making contact with the Green EMA as it falls also indicating bearish sentiment. We are also at the risk in the 90m of the Blue LSMA crossing below 50, it has already turned down and if continuing we can expect the Bollinger Bands to expand and the price action continue down between the Aqua/Orange lower BBs, particularly if the Red RSI also continues down below 50. We also see a similar position in the 3h with the Red RSI and the Blue LSMA both currently below 50 and the Red RSI making contact with the Green EMA as it falls. If we close like this in 3m the Energy will drop below 50 and the price action will continue between the Aqua/Orange lower BBs potentially wicking down to the Red lower BB.
The Red RSI and Blue LSMA have both crossed below 50 in concert in the 12h with the Red RSI simultaneously making a bearish cross below the Blue LSMA.
We also have a downward pressure race between the Energy in the 12h and the Red RSI in the daily.
When the Red RSI fell below 50 in the 12h a downward pressure race was triggered. In order for upward pressure to resume, we first need to see the Energy in the daily CLOSE above 50 in the 12h before the Red RSI in the daily CROSSES below 50. If the Energy does win the race, we need to see the Green MA higher than the Energy in at least the three preceding halved timeframes from the timeframe in which the race was triggered. If the Red RSI wins we then have a race between the Energy in the daily and the Red RSI in the 2d etc. This downward pressure race has cascaded up from lower TFs. Until the Energy decisively wins the race, we do not have a chance for reversal to upward pressure in the relevant timeframes.
It looks like the Red RSI in the daily is favourite to win the race meaning a continuation of downward pressure for now.
I'm going to mark this neutral for now as even though we are in a local period of downward pressure and bearish sentiment in the short term timeframes, we are bullish in the near term and mid term timeframes.
Just to point out that downward pressure does not necessarily mean significant downward price action, but sideways at best, downwards at worst (depending on your perspective)
As mentioned in previous publications, these markets can change with very little notice. These changes initially manifest themselves in the lower timeframes and propagate up through the timeframes. Nothing is set in stone. Unless you are day trading, you cannot benefit from these early warning signals.
As always - this is not financial advice but just my view of current market dynamics.
One has to be aware that analyses are done on the basis of what the indicators are saying at the time and things can change. It is important to always monitor the scalping group of timeframes as we will see changes propagate up from there.
If you got value from this analysis, please hit the like button
Trade safe
aBL
Short term group of timeframes
Note
Short term group of timeframes (90m, 3h, 6h, 12h)In the 90, the Green EMA has moved above the Energy and the Red RSI and Blue LSMA have turned up and crossed above 50 with the Red RSI making a bullish cross above the Blue LSMA. The Energy is higher than the Green EMA in the 3h indicating bearish sentiment and likelyhood of a lower high in the normal way. However the Green EMA has made a strong move up with the Energy and it is possible it can go out to the side and the Energy fall below, furthermore the Red RSI and Blue LSMA have both crossed above 50, so we do have some potential here, particularly if the Bollinger Bands continue expanding pursuant the the Blue LSMA crossing above 50. In the 6h the Green has also gone up strong with the Energy, The Red RSI & Blue LSMA have both turned up and are headed towards 50. In the 12h The Red RSI and the Blue LSMA have also started turning up. So nothing decisive yet in these timeframes but there could be something brewing...
We need to see the Blue LSMA & Red RSI continue up and the Green EMA to get higher than the Energy - so will continue to monitor.
Near Term group of timeframes: (1d, 2d, 3d, 4d)
In the daily the Red RSI after having made a bearish cross below the Blue LSMA is now dangerously close to level 50. In all these timeframes the Green EMA is higher than the Energy indicating Bullish sentiment, however we are currently still experiencing downward pressure with the Energy below 50 in the 2d, 3d & 4d. In the 2d the Energy looks like it is beginning to exhaust and turn back up but the Red RSI is currently making a bearish cross below the Blue LSMA.
Mid term we are still looking bullish.
Scalping group of timeframes (6m, 12m, 23m, 45m)
Sentiment propagates up to higher timeframes from this group.
Currently the Green EMA is higher than the Energy in all this group of timeframes indicating bullish sentiment. But no decisive indications currently.
In Summary
There are no immediate indications of a strong move either way, however the overlying mood is bullish. We are seeing some indecision currently and I would at the moment anticipate sideways for now with potential for a bullish break.
I currently wouldn't consider opening positions other than for accumulation purposes. We need to continue to monitor and wait for confirmation before considering positions.
Scalping group
Short Term group
Near Term group
Note
Beginning to look more bullish now..Currently in the short term group of timeframes we are starting to see bullish sentiment cascade up from the scalping group where the Green EMA is higher than the Green EMA in all timeframes. The Red RSI has crossed bullish above the Blue LSMA in the 12m and the 45m. The Red RSI and Blue LSMA have made contact with the Green EMA as it rises in the 23m indicating bullish sentiment.
Going back to the Short Term group of timeframes, the Red RSI and the Blue LSMA have both made contact with the Green EMA as it rises in the 90m and the 6h and the Red RSI has madde contact with the Green EMA as it turns back up in the 3h indicating bullish sentiment. The Blue LSMA and Red RSI are above level 50 in the 90 and 3h. During periods of upward pressure we can expect, as we see here the candle bodies to sit for the most part between the Aqua/Orange upper Bollinger Bands with potential to wick up to the Red upper. The Green EMA is higher than the Energy now in the 90 and the 3h indicating bullish sentiment. In the 6h it looks like the Green EMA is trying to go up and to the side with good odds of the Energy falling below. The Green is also going up strong with the Energy in the 12h. In the 3h when the Blue LSMA turned back up and crossed above 50 we saw the Bollinger Bands start to expand and the Energy has turned back up, there is a good chance that the BBs can continue expanding and the price action accelerate to the upside as it remains predominantly between the Aqua/Orange upper BBs. Also in the 6h and the 12h the Blue LSMA is heading up to level 50, if we continue and cross, we stand a good chance of the BBs expanding in these TFs too. We do need to see the Green EMA get above the Energy in the 6h & 12h to confirm that the scene is set for reversal to sustained upward pressure.
In the Near Term group of timeframes the Green EMA is higher than the Energy in all timeframes indicating bullish sentiment. The Red RSI and Blue LSMA in the daily look likely to close making contact with the Green EMA as it rises indicating upward pressure and the Red RSI looks as though it wants to turn back up.
In summary:
It is slightly early to confirm sustained upward pressure but the signs are beginning to fall into place to set the scene.
Near Term group of timeframes: (1d, 2d, 3d, 4d)
Short term group of timeframes ( 90m, 3h, 6h, 12h)
Scalping group of timeframes (6m, 12m, 23m, 45m)
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