ZIM Harmonic: Deep-Crab Pattern
ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. engages in the provision of shipping and logistics services. It offers shipping solutions, including the transportation of out-of-gauge cargo, refrigerated cargo, and dangerous and hazardous cargo. ZIM has a STRONG quantitative fundamental score (Greater than 7) with great analyst prospects (Strong Buy and Hold ratings). Furthermore, ZIM has an EXCELLENT dividend pay out @ 2.50 per share/year (Approximately 19.7% of the entry price at 12.68). Therefore, this ZIM long play has EXTREME DEEP-VALUE (one might say "ABYSSAL-VALUE", it's so deep), at the price levels from 12.68 - 11.30. Really, this trade is blowing my mind, it's insanely good.
In this idea, we have a deep crab pattern showing us that price should reverse between 12.68 - 11.30. I expect price to reverse exactly at 12.58ish. I would set the stop-loss for 3%; however, I'd consider averaging into a position on this trade, if price goes below the stop (I don't expect it to). Once the 0.382 target is acquired, I would sell half of my position and set stop-loss runners to trail price by the 'Average True Range' of multiple timeframes. Once price has reached the 0.618 target, I would sell the remainder of my position. The first target nets 236.12% (Risk-to-Reward of 76.77) and the second target nets 382.57% (Risk-to-Reward of 124.38). Averaging these percentage gains out and adding for the dividend (I would expect to hold this for at least one year), one would profit approximately 329% of their original investment.
Plugging in the probability for success of a deep-crab pattern and the R:R values into our Kelly Criterion betting calculator for an account of $1000, we get;
FIRST TARGET
Probability: 0.93
Odds: 76.77
Bankroll:$1000
Calculation:
Kelly Criterion (Adjusted) - 0.9291
Bet This Much (Adjusted) - $929.09
SECOND TARGET
Probability: 0.93
Odds: 124.38
Bankroll:$1000
Calculation:
Kelly Criterion (Adjusted) - 0.9294
Bet This Much (Adjusted) - $929.44
Therefore, one should bet approximately 92.9% of their normal lot size. Good luck and trade safely!
In this idea, we have a deep crab pattern showing us that price should reverse between 12.68 - 11.30. I expect price to reverse exactly at 12.58ish. I would set the stop-loss for 3%; however, I'd consider averaging into a position on this trade, if price goes below the stop (I don't expect it to). Once the 0.382 target is acquired, I would sell half of my position and set stop-loss runners to trail price by the 'Average True Range' of multiple timeframes. Once price has reached the 0.618 target, I would sell the remainder of my position. The first target nets 236.12% (Risk-to-Reward of 76.77) and the second target nets 382.57% (Risk-to-Reward of 124.38). Averaging these percentage gains out and adding for the dividend (I would expect to hold this for at least one year), one would profit approximately 329% of their original investment.
Plugging in the probability for success of a deep-crab pattern and the R:R values into our Kelly Criterion betting calculator for an account of $1000, we get;
FIRST TARGET
Probability: 0.93
Odds: 76.77
Bankroll:$1000
Calculation:
Kelly Criterion (Adjusted) - 0.9291
Bet This Much (Adjusted) - $929.09
SECOND TARGET
Probability: 0.93
Odds: 124.38
Bankroll:$1000
Calculation:
Kelly Criterion (Adjusted) - 0.9294
Bet This Much (Adjusted) - $929.44
Therefore, one should bet approximately 92.9% of their normal lot size. Good luck and trade safely!
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