Short Bonds on Retest w/ Concurrent SPY rally
TL;DR short bonds for the week until FOMC decision 6/19/19 with no more upside pressure, consolidating at current level with volume. SPY is 70 points off of high and is aiming to test that resistance a 3rd time in this year.
Fundamentally: SPY is about to reach all time highs, with some more support as a fed rate cut is predicted (bringing hope in the short term). While a China Trade deal is still uncertain, Trump seems determined to make one at G20 end of this month. It seems the market has taken a hopeful turn leading up to the meeting and do not have hard economic data to trade off of this week of 6/10/19. 6/19/19 is an FOMC decision, however, where interest rate may be cut sending bond prices higher. Bonds and Equities could both rise on this news.
Technicals: 10yr reached the same highs experienced nearly a year ago with volume as stocks were sliding. Now they have reached the zone without going down to test any of the broken resistance levels as supports and bulls are failing to drive it further. The point-of-control shows significant "gravity" (market profile) down at the ~124'28 level which it could go as low as to test.
R:R: Local High 127'16 (Stop Loss), Profit Target 124'28, resulting in ~4:1 reward.
Fundamentally: SPY is about to reach all time highs, with some more support as a fed rate cut is predicted (bringing hope in the short term). While a China Trade deal is still uncertain, Trump seems determined to make one at G20 end of this month. It seems the market has taken a hopeful turn leading up to the meeting and do not have hard economic data to trade off of this week of 6/10/19. 6/19/19 is an FOMC decision, however, where interest rate may be cut sending bond prices higher. Bonds and Equities could both rise on this news.
Technicals: 10yr reached the same highs experienced nearly a year ago with volume as stocks were sliding. Now they have reached the zone without going down to test any of the broken resistance levels as supports and bulls are failing to drive it further. The point-of-control shows significant "gravity" (market profile) down at the ~124'28 level which it could go as low as to test.
R:R: Local High 127'16 (Stop Loss), Profit Target 124'28, resulting in ~4:1 reward.
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