SOYBEANS - COT Based Long Trade Setup
DISCLAIMER. This is not trade advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. There is real risk involved with trading any market.
I am looking for longs in the Soybean market this week.
Here is why.
-Commercials are positioned very long relative to their overall positioning over the last 6 months, which is bullish.
-Commercials are approaching the max long positioning of the last 3 years, which is bullish. Admittedly, I'd like to see them at a bit more of an extreme. But they are relatively very long right now, which is a valid reason to be bullish.
-While price has declined for weeks, OI has increased. When OI is increasing, we must ask the question "who is causing the OI increase"? If OI is being increased by commercials, this is bullish.
-Advisor sentiment is very bearish, which is bullish.
-Undervalued vs gold and bonds.
-ADX is forming the "paunch" as the ADX rises over 40. Paunch will confirm when ADX "rolls over". The paunch is relatively rare, but when it occurs, we need to pay attention as a market reversal of some significance is near.
-Small specs are overall quite short (although similarly to the commercial positioning, I'd like to see them at more of an extreme).
-Insider accumulation, %$ and Ultimate oscilator all giving buy signals.
-Some major cyclical signs suggesting Soybeans are at a major cyclical low.
For these reasons, I'm long Soybeans and will look to get more long with future entry triggers.
If you have any questions, feel free to shoot me a message.
Good luck, and good trading.
I am looking for longs in the Soybean market this week.
Here is why.
-Commercials are positioned very long relative to their overall positioning over the last 6 months, which is bullish.
-Commercials are approaching the max long positioning of the last 3 years, which is bullish. Admittedly, I'd like to see them at a bit more of an extreme. But they are relatively very long right now, which is a valid reason to be bullish.
-While price has declined for weeks, OI has increased. When OI is increasing, we must ask the question "who is causing the OI increase"? If OI is being increased by commercials, this is bullish.
-Advisor sentiment is very bearish, which is bullish.
-Undervalued vs gold and bonds.
-ADX is forming the "paunch" as the ADX rises over 40. Paunch will confirm when ADX "rolls over". The paunch is relatively rare, but when it occurs, we need to pay attention as a market reversal of some significance is near.
-Small specs are overall quite short (although similarly to the commercial positioning, I'd like to see them at more of an extreme).
-Insider accumulation, %$ and Ultimate oscilator all giving buy signals.
-Some major cyclical signs suggesting Soybeans are at a major cyclical low.
For these reasons, I'm long Soybeans and will look to get more long with future entry triggers.
If you have any questions, feel free to shoot me a message.
Good luck, and good trading.
Note
Soybeans have seen a move up this week, although weaker compared to soybean oil. We have still not had an "official" change of trend, as we wait for 2 full range days to be above the 18 period MA, and then see the highest high of those 2 candles taken out. I am in the trade already, as mentioned in the video, I took a higher risk early change of trend signal.
Disclaimer
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