Lower than expected Chinese data is pressuring soybeans
Fundamental Snapshot
China
Weaker than expected growth in China was reported overnight, with real estate leading the way to the downside. The weaker than expected data prompted their Central Bank to announce a surprise interest rate cut. We are seeing the slower growth data have ripple effects in commodities this morning with oil down over 5% and soybeans down over 3%, just to name a few.
U.S. Dollar
The US Dollar is firming on the back of poor Chinese data, continuing the relief rally from Friday. The U.S. dollar was able to defend 105, which was previous resistance in May and June and the eventual breakout point in July. If the dollar continues to rally, it could be a headwind to some commodities.
Weather
Weather throughout the Midwest looks cooler and wetter for the next 1-2 weeks. For some problem areas, it may be too little too late. The conversation around weather will be shifting to South America in the coming weeks as they begin planting.
Soybeans
November soybean futures had a big reversal on Friday, taking prices into positive territory following a bearish USDA report. The news out of China over the weekend has offset Friday's bullish reversal and has taken prices back near first support, 1394-1400. A failure to defend this pocket could lead to another leg lower. There is still a gap on the chart from July 26th, that comes in from 1349 1/4-1356.
Bias: Neutral
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1463 ¼**, 1481-1489***, 1500-1507 ¾****, 1529 ¾-1536 ½****
Pivot: 1440-1450
Support: 1394-1400***, 1349-1356****, 1300**
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
China
Weaker than expected growth in China was reported overnight, with real estate leading the way to the downside. The weaker than expected data prompted their Central Bank to announce a surprise interest rate cut. We are seeing the slower growth data have ripple effects in commodities this morning with oil down over 5% and soybeans down over 3%, just to name a few.
U.S. Dollar
The US Dollar is firming on the back of poor Chinese data, continuing the relief rally from Friday. The U.S. dollar was able to defend 105, which was previous resistance in May and June and the eventual breakout point in July. If the dollar continues to rally, it could be a headwind to some commodities.
Weather
Weather throughout the Midwest looks cooler and wetter for the next 1-2 weeks. For some problem areas, it may be too little too late. The conversation around weather will be shifting to South America in the coming weeks as they begin planting.
Soybeans
November soybean futures had a big reversal on Friday, taking prices into positive territory following a bearish USDA report. The news out of China over the weekend has offset Friday's bullish reversal and has taken prices back near first support, 1394-1400. A failure to defend this pocket could lead to another leg lower. There is still a gap on the chart from July 26th, that comes in from 1349 1/4-1356.
Bias: Neutral
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1463 ¼**, 1481-1489***, 1500-1507 ¾****, 1529 ¾-1536 ½****
Pivot: 1440-1450
Support: 1394-1400***, 1349-1356****, 1300**
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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