Are Soybeans Setup For a Bigger Rally?
Thursday marked the last trading day of the month and first quarter, which coincides with one of the more highly anticipated USDA reports of the year; quarterly stocks and prospective plantings.
The USDA estimates that there will be 86.51 million acres of soybeans planted in the U.S. this year, that was a hair below the average analyst estimate of 86.53 million but still nearly 3 million acres more than last year. Quarterly stocks were reported at 1.845 billion bushels, this was slightly above the average estimate of 1.828 billion, and above last years 1.687 billion.
With the headline numbers coming in close to expectations, the market was little changed at the close. From a technical perspective though, the Bulls were happy to see support near $12.00 hold, which is both technically and psychologically significant. As you can see on the chart, $12.00 has acted as somewhat of an inflection point through the first three months of the year. On top of that, you also have two major moving averages (the 20 and 50 day) coming in there. The 20 day appears to be nearing a crossover of the 50-day moving average which is often looked at as a bullish signal by technicians.
The big hurdle for the Bulls to overcome comes in from 1225-1232. If the Bulls can achieve consecutive closes above this pocket we could see that spur prices higher with the next upside objective being the 100-day moving average. Above that, and there’s the potential to fill the gap from January 2nd, which comes in from 1305 ¼-1311 ¾.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: tradingview.com/cme/
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
The USDA estimates that there will be 86.51 million acres of soybeans planted in the U.S. this year, that was a hair below the average analyst estimate of 86.53 million but still nearly 3 million acres more than last year. Quarterly stocks were reported at 1.845 billion bushels, this was slightly above the average estimate of 1.828 billion, and above last years 1.687 billion.
With the headline numbers coming in close to expectations, the market was little changed at the close. From a technical perspective though, the Bulls were happy to see support near $12.00 hold, which is both technically and psychologically significant. As you can see on the chart, $12.00 has acted as somewhat of an inflection point through the first three months of the year. On top of that, you also have two major moving averages (the 20 and 50 day) coming in there. The 20 day appears to be nearing a crossover of the 50-day moving average which is often looked at as a bullish signal by technicians.
The big hurdle for the Bulls to overcome comes in from 1225-1232. If the Bulls can achieve consecutive closes above this pocket we could see that spur prices higher with the next upside objective being the 100-day moving average. Above that, and there’s the potential to fill the gap from January 2nd, which comes in from 1305 ¼-1311 ¾.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: tradingview.com/cme/
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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