What's Next for Soybeans?
Soybeans
Technicals (November)
November soybean futures traded into support yesterday which we have had outlined as 1013-1014, that has so far held. A break and close below here and a peek below the psychologically significant $10.00 level seems inevitable. On the flip side, 1025-1031 3/4 continues to be the first hurdle, a pocket that was tested but failed against in yesterday's trade, with a high of 1028 3/4. If the Bulls can chew through this pocket, it could propel prices back towards more significant resistance from 1041 3/4-1045. This pocket represents trendline resistance from the end of May peak, as well as the 20-day moving average, both of which have been acting as clear resistance points, as shown in the chart below.
Short Term Bias and Technical Levels of Importance
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1046-1050**, 1061 1/2-1062 3/4***
Pivot: 1025-1031 3/4
Support: 1013-1015***, 997-1000**
Weekly Export Sales Estimates (released at 7:30am CT)
Old Crop: 100,000 to 300,000 MT. Last week, old crop sales were reported at 376,400 MT, up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.
New Crop: 400,000 to 900,000 MT. Last week's report came in at 632,100 MT.
Average Estimates for August 12th USDA Report
Production: 4.473 billion bushels
Yield: 52.6 bushels per acre
Harvested Acres: 85.116 million
23/24 Ending Stocks: 350 million bushels
24/25 Ending Stocks: 470 million bushels
Below: Daily Chart of November Soybean Futures, depicting trendline resistance from the May highs as well as the 20-day moving average (in purple).
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: tradingview.com/cme/
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Technicals (November)
November soybean futures traded into support yesterday which we have had outlined as 1013-1014, that has so far held. A break and close below here and a peek below the psychologically significant $10.00 level seems inevitable. On the flip side, 1025-1031 3/4 continues to be the first hurdle, a pocket that was tested but failed against in yesterday's trade, with a high of 1028 3/4. If the Bulls can chew through this pocket, it could propel prices back towards more significant resistance from 1041 3/4-1045. This pocket represents trendline resistance from the end of May peak, as well as the 20-day moving average, both of which have been acting as clear resistance points, as shown in the chart below.
Short Term Bias and Technical Levels of Importance
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1046-1050**, 1061 1/2-1062 3/4***
Pivot: 1025-1031 3/4
Support: 1013-1015***, 997-1000**
Weekly Export Sales Estimates (released at 7:30am CT)
Old Crop: 100,000 to 300,000 MT. Last week, old crop sales were reported at 376,400 MT, up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.
New Crop: 400,000 to 900,000 MT. Last week's report came in at 632,100 MT.
Average Estimates for August 12th USDA Report
Production: 4.473 billion bushels
Yield: 52.6 bushels per acre
Harvested Acres: 85.116 million
23/24 Ending Stocks: 350 million bushels
24/25 Ending Stocks: 470 million bushels
Below: Daily Chart of November Soybean Futures, depicting trendline resistance from the May highs as well as the 20-day moving average (in purple).
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: tradingview.com/cme/
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.