Wheat
Updated
Wheat price (ZW features) jumped as result of RU breaking deal with UKR. Additionally RU attacked grain terminal in Odessa with rockets. Price raised to 750 and then strongly corrected to below 700. This correction might be due to hopes that grain deal will be restored. Unfortunately, now this looks less likely. Both RU and UKR threaten ships on black see - that will affect the grain transport. Insurance premiums for this route will rise/potentially this also can affect the shipping merchants that do not want to risk their ships to be destroyed. Both RU + UKR is about 30% of grain export.
Weather situation effect on harvest. There is still possible some effects. This will develop.
Assuming now that weather is not major effect for now.
UKR means to transport wheat:
1. Odessa terminal (main route)
2. Danube terminal (river is drying) - improved since 2022.
3. Land routes
Embargos of some EU countries on UKR wheat also complicating situation now (i.e. Poland). Difficulties with land routes.
Expect the price to rise above 800 levels.
Weather situation effect on harvest. There is still possible some effects. This will develop.
Assuming now that weather is not major effect for now.
UKR means to transport wheat:
1. Odessa terminal (main route)
2. Danube terminal (river is drying) - improved since 2022.
3. Land routes
Embargos of some EU countries on UKR wheat also complicating situation now (i.e. Poland). Difficulties with land routes.
Expect the price to rise above 800 levels.
Comment
RUS plan sea mines around UKR ports. Black see will be closed for UKR merchants. That is bit sad. All sea transport from UKR will be affected. With current destruction of terminals and mining the black sea return to grain deal even if pushed will have little sense. The land routes still will serve for transport the grain but his will be more expensive and thus reflected on the wheat price.
Comment
I think idea is not valid anymore. Those events are discounted. Price will fall due to crop data better due to weather.
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