Short on Wheat (Chicago)
Updated
The contract was in an upwards trend until it hit a trend line (1st / 2nd of March) I drew in the weekly chart (possible triangle formation). The resistance in form of the trend line hold and the price started to fall. It broke the first support line at 478 (last high) and the second support area at 462 / 459 (last low) with increasing volume. In my view that is a clear sign that the price might fall further until it hits the trend line at roughly 425 / 430 (part of the possible triangle formation I drew in the weekly chart). The support area at 462 / 459 now becomes a resistance area.
My idea is supportet by weather conditions around the world (22nd of March):
USA / Canada:
Although key wheat producing areas around Kansas have been too dry, relief is expected from the 25th of March onwards. The forecasted precipitation will especially relief dry conditions in Oklahoma and Texas.
Furthermore, temperatures are going to be higher than usual in the next two days.
All in all: More favorable conditions for wheat.
Europe:
Temperatures have been significantly lower than usual, although no frost damage is expected. Germany and the Northern parts of Eastern Europe have been to dry. Precipitation is expected for the period: 25th of March - 29th of March. Temperature is going to increase, too.
All in all: More favorable conditions for wheat.
Black - Sea - Region:
Temperatures have been significanly lower than usual, too. A thick snow cover protected winter crop. No significant damage is expected. But, temperatures are expected to stay lower than usual. Cold weather and the thick snow cover prolong dormancy and this might after all have a negative effect on the crop yield.
All in all: Conditions are not perfect. Neverthless, a high crop yield is expected.
China:
Temperatures are forecasted to be significantly higher than usual in important wheat growing areas (esp. in the East of China).
All in all: Favorable conditions for wheat.
No extrem weather or significant dryness is expected within the next week. Extrem drought in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas is reliefed thanks to precipitation in the coming week.
US - Dollar is for dollar dominated commodities an important factor. A week Dollar boosts prices.
I expect the US Dollar to fall to 89.02 / 88.50. Here is an important resistance. This might not be favorable for Chicago Wheat price but one has to consider that US Wheat is still highly priced compared to its competiton in the Black Sea Region.
So all in all, I think that the price should fall further.
Note
Unfortunately, my idea didn't play out as I expected. The price didn't go all the way down: Only to 441 (29th of March) and not all the way down to roughly 425/430. The price is about to follow the second move, back up to the upper triangly line (resistance). The reasons are try weather conditions in the area of Kansas (from parts of Nebraska to the North of Texas and parts of Oklahoma) and bad crop conditions / progress.
But at the moment the 478 resistance is still in play.
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