Long Wheat (ZW) - COT Thrust Signal (Read for Explanation)
ZW1!A bit of a unique chart setup here - typically I trade based solely on the max positioning of the commercials (See below for an explanation of what that means). However, I will occasionally look for a buy when the Net positioning of commercials has accelerated recently (Indicated by black bars in the COT indicator at bottom of the chart). For this trade, use the daily chart for an entry using your favorite technical indicator (if it triggers!). Note: Crop Progress report on Monday
Risk: There has been some recent heavy selling making this slightly counter trend
Additional Note: Look how accurate the COT Index has been on calling highs and lows for Wheat (Green and Red highlighting on the bottom indicator). And no, I did not optimize the settings to get this to occur.
Helping Materials to Understand What I'm Talking About (I have this on all my ideas now)
COT Definitions:
- COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities
1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc)
2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds)
3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms)
Indicators on Chart:
- The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time
- The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0. The black bars show when the index is moving rapidly and can also trigger a trade)
- Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario)
Trade Setup - Both Must Happen:
- When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above)
- On a daily chart , use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here)
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