10-Year T-Note vs. 10-Year Yield Futures: Which One To Trade?Introduction:
The 10-Year T-Note Futures and 10-Year Yield Futures are two prominent instruments in the financial markets, offering traders unique opportunities to capitalize on interest rate movements. This video compares these two products, focusing on their key characteristics, liquidity, and the differences in point and tick values, ultimately helping you decide which one to trade.
Key Characteristics:
10-Year T-Note Futures represent a contract based on the value of U.S. Treasury notes with a 10-year maturity, while 10-Year Yield Futures are based on the yield of these notes. The T-Note Futures contract size is $100,000, while the 10-Year Yield Futures contract size is based on $1,000 per index point, reflecting a $10 DV01 (dollar value of a one basis point move).
Liquidity Comparison:
Both 10-Year T-Note Futures and 10-Year Yield Futures are highly liquid, with substantial daily trading volumes and open interest. This high liquidity ensures tight spreads and efficient trade execution, providing traders with confidence in entering and exiting positions in both markets.
Point and Tick Values:
Understanding the point and tick values is crucial for effective trading. For 10-Year T-Note Futures, each tick is 1/32nd of a point, worth $31.25 per contract. The 10-Year Yield Futures have a tick value of 0.001 percent, worth $1.00 per contract. These values influence trading costs and profit potential differently and are essential for precise strategy formulation.
Margin Information:
The initial margin requirement for 10-Year T-Note Futures typically ranges around $1,500 per contract, while the maintenance margin is slightly lower. For 10-Year Yield Futures, the initial margin is approximately $500 per contract, reflecting its lower notional value and DV01. Maintenance margins for yield futures are also marginally lower, providing traders with flexible capital management options.
Trade Execution:
We demonstrate planning and placing a bracket order for both products. Using TradingView charts, we set up entry and exit points, showcasing how the different tick values and liquidity levels impact trade execution and potential outcomes.
Risk Management:
Effective risk management is vital when trading futures. Utilizing stop-loss orders and hedging techniques can mitigate potential losses. Avoiding undefined risk exposure and ensuring precise entries and exits help maintain a balanced risk-reward ratio, which is essential for long-term trading success.
Conclusion:
Both 10-Year T-Note Futures and 10-Year Yield Futures offer unique advantages. The choice depends on your trading strategy, risk tolerance, and market outlook. Watch the full video for a detailed analysis and insights on leveraging these products in your trading endeavors.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
10yearnote
Mid Year Update: Part 1: 10 Year Rates:Mid-Year Update: Part 1: Bonds/Rates:
I begin each year looking at monthly perspective charts of Equity, Rates, Commodities and DXY. Those posts can be found in their entirety, with extensive fundamental support, in the links below. I will update views on the four markets over the next few weeks.
The early 2022 the conclusions were:
- Bonds: A bull market defined by a broad declining channel, but rising inflation could easily change the trend. The most likely catalyst to end keep rates below 3.25% would be a financial accident created by higher rates.
-Equities: SPX remains in a technical bull market and there are no overtly bearish behaviors evident in the longest perspectives. However short term weakness could easily morph into a bear market.
-Commodities: Goldman Sachs Commodities index is in the center of a broad 14 year range, bounded essentially by the low set during the financial crisis and the resultant 2011 high. The most notable/useful current chart feature is the clear uptrend from the 2020 pandemic low. Until that uptrend is broken, the most immediate trend is to higher price.
-US Dollar: The wide macro range, 70.70 - 121.02 has contained price action over most of my trading career but volatility is more cyclical than price. These periods of low vol. set up conditions that often lead to explosive moves.
Reminder: Bond bull and bear markets are defined by the PRICE trend. In other words, a bull market in bonds = rising bond prices and falling yields.
10 Year:
Monthly:
- In January bonds broke above the 40 year downtrend that had defined the bull market. The break of the downtrend moves the structural long term trend from bullish to neutral.
-A monthly close above the 3.25% pivot would begin to define a long term structural bear.
- Initial targets above the pivot are found at 5.29% (the 2007 pivot high) and 6.27%, (.382 retracement of the entire bull market).
-The monthly MACD oscillator generated a long term sell signal (in December of 2020 at roughly 90 bps). Until this sell signal resolves, place less weight on buy signals generated in lower perspective (daily and weekly) time frames.
Weekly: The combination of very strong resistance, overbought MACD and bad seasonals suggest that a counter trend weekly perspective rally or consolidation is becoming likely.
-Testing very strong resistance while overbought both in terms of price and momentum. It wouldn't be surprising to see a testing probe of 3.50% but its clear that buyers (expecting lower yields) are becoming more active.
-The Mid-June spike above 3.25% left a thrust rejection that suggested strong handed sellers entering.
-Weekly MACD is threatening to roll over.
-Bond prices have very strong seasonal tendencies, weak into the May - June time frame, stronger into the middle of September, and weak into the end of the year. We are into the period where bonds transition from weakness to strength.
-While it’s clear that the trend lower in inflation has inflected higher, potential weekly perspective inflection points in commodities and energy should relieve some of the short term inflation angst and by extrapolation the pressure on bond prices.
-Major yield highs are almost always the result of a financial accident with systemic ramifications. I don't think crypto is a big enough market to qualify and other than the widening high yield spreads I don't sense much going on in this regard.
-Ten Year TIPS breakeven rates are on the verge of generating a MACD month perspective sell signal (suggesting lower expectations for future inflation). This is a direct reflection of the recent declines in energy and commodities. A TIPS sell signal would be very supportive of lower nominal 10 year rates.
Bottom Line: The long term structural bull market is dead, but the market has yet to establish a new structural bear. Unless there is a systemic catalyst, Weekly perspective rallies, particularly into the fourth quarter, should be viewed as selling opportunities.
#TNX 10 Year Treasury Note Yield What's UP big dump coming maybeWhat's up. Well DAX peaked last year S&P500 and Nikkei225 kept going up. The "Make America Great Again" maybe. Big "Dump-Ala-Trump" coming soon maybe. That's what bonds telling us maybe Will Crypto go into deep freeze and bitcoin go down by another half (50%) Time will tell. No hurry. Note these are Monthly charts
