Selection & how to operateThe obvious part if you've understood all the previous posts.
It's easier to start with how Not to trade .
Wrong - cherry picking "strong" levels. Every level is a level, not better & not worse than another one. Choosing the supposedly strong levels is a subjective thing that reduces expected value & consistency.
Right - operating at each level on a given resolution, you either expect a level to repel prices or to be consumed, you operate accordingly at every level. The more you operate, better for the market, higher your revenues. If there too many levels for you, instead of cherry picking you just move to a lower resolution. Some levels can be effectively skipped because of risk & sizing consideration, but skipping levels an cherry picking levels are 2 completely different mindsets.
Wrong - stopping operation after N loosing trades.
Right - controlling equity as explained in "Sizing & how to manage risk". If you're making loosing trades in a row, you don't stop, you just hit zero size, then you imagine trades or execute on simulator, when your size comes back to a non-zero value you come back to the real account. More you operate - better for the business.
Wrong - waiting for a "confirmation". If you don't have a firm expectation whether a level will repel prices or will be consumed, you don't know what you're doing, read all the posts and understand how it all works.
Right - knowing in advance what you gonna do at each level & keep reevaluating it in real time.
Wrong - making reentries. The activity around levels, especially how levels get cleared, is very well defined. After the scaling in is complete, you either exit at loss/at breakeven when a level gets cleared / positioned in the unexpected side. Or, you scale out while being in the money.
Right - unless there was a mistake caused by a misclick or smth like dat, reentries is an irrelevant concept.
Wrong - working out insurance after the entry.
Right - a hedge should be bought BEFORE scaling in, same goes about placing the stop-losses.
How to operate
Asset selection
Not many people think about it, but it makes sense not only to provide liquidity when & where there's not much of it, but also to consume excessive liquidity when & where there's too much of it, because both cases are unhealthy for the markets. So, we have 2 types of trading instruments then:
1) overquoted ones, such as GE, ZN, or ES many years ago;
2) underquoted ones, such as CL, NQ;
How to distinguish dem?
One way is to take a look at volumes on highest resolution cluster/footprint chart, and compare em with the actual number of bid/asks in the DOM. ZN for example is hugely overquoted, you'll notice that: it has aprox 1000 contract at every bid/ask price, but when these limit orders start to get consumed at one price, the rest orders at the same price just gets cancelled, and you see lesser values on your footprint/cluster chart. The opposite happens on underquoted instruments, they need liquidity.
Why it matters?
You operate the same way on both under and overquoted vehicles, but:
1) on underquoted vehicles you mainly use limit orders, you provide liquidity;
2) on overquoted vehicles you mainly use market orders, you remove liquidity;
Exits at loss vs attempting to get out around breakeven
Both are legit, the latter gives more freedom, but implies not using stop-losses so you have to know 4 sure what's happening and what you're doing.
That's how you trade with stoplosses.
1) In case of trading pops from positioned levels, you simply exit when the support/resistance gets cleared, in case of clearing by price it means you'll have an L, no big deal tho;
2) In case of trading pushes through positioned levels (aka trading clearings aka trading consumptions), same, you're getting an L if you hit the invalidation point. The invalidation point for these trades is the opposite border of the positioning sequence. This border is found the same ways as the front level, just at the opposite side;
3) Trading during a positioning itself. Makes least sense to trade with stop-losses, but in theory: taking an L at the next level past the level you expect to be positioned this or that way. If there is no level past you current level, you try to make a projection, smth like its shown on ZN chart of this post, imagine you were trading positioning of 112'19.
Without stops it's almost the same, it's just instead of taking an immediate loss after an invalidation event, you exit at breakeven when price comes back to the entry zone (in most cases it does). If prices don't go back and hit another level, you simply continue trading there, if that new level you're working with now is supposed to act in the opposite direction from the previous one, you simply reverse your position. If that new level is supposed to work in the same direction as the previous one, you're holding your position further.
This kind of operation assumes very high win rate, low RR ratio and very rare but significant losses. However, if the unexpected happens 2 times in row, chances are the problem is on your side xD
Finally
1) Monitor non-market data in order not to be caught against the momentum surges (eg unless you're a DMM, trading at Jobless Claims release is a BAD IDEA);
2) Pick your main resolution that way you'll be satisfied with the frequency of your operations;
3) Work with all the levels there;
4) Never approach the next level while having a full position, always offload risk on the way, unless you expect the next level to be cleared/positioned in the same direction;
5) Always control risks;
6) Understand that it's all about doing the right thing, and it's totally possible to understand what is right by gaining all the info from all the data.
You should end up trading 100% of positioned levels, trading 50% of positioning processes demselves, and rofl never try to trade smth that looks like "a new level is forming now".
Asset
What are stocks and how do they work?Stocks are exchange traded securities that give rights of ownership to their holder. Normally, they are bought and sold publicly on the stock market exchange; however, private transactions of stocks are also possible. Commonly, the purpose of issuing stock by a company is to raise capital needed for its operations. This process of raising funds allows for fast expansion of capital and company's businesses.
Illustration 1.01
Picture above shows the weekly chart of Apple stock which is the biggest of all stocks in terms of market capitalization.
Stocks are also called equities and their units are called shares. Owner of a stock is then called shareholder and emitent of the stock is called the issuer. Shares entitle a shareholder to the corresponding ownership of the company's assets and profit. However, a shareholder does not own the company itself; additionally, a shareholder does not take any legal liability for a company's actions. This is because a company is viewed as its own legal entity. Shareholders can be either major or minor. Major shareholders hold over 50% of outstanding shares in a company while minor shareholders hold less than 50% of outstanding shares in a company.
Stocks and shares
There is only a slight difference between the terms “stocks'' and “shares”. The term “stocks” is more general and can refer to a single company or broad group of companies. The term “shares'' usually refers to one particular company. However, nowadays, these two terms are used interchangeably.
Separation of ownership and control
Separation of ownership and control is associated with publicly traded companies. It refers to claims on management's decision making and claims on corporation's assets and profit. In publicly traded companies shareholders have limited rights to control a company; shareholders possess only legal claims to the company's profit and assets.
Voting rights
Voting rights represent a shareholder's ability to vote on policy matters within a company. These matters may include issuing new shares, appointing members to board of directors, approving acquisitions and mergers, etc.
Common stock and preferred stock
There are two categories of stocks: common stocks and preferred stocks. Common stocks entitle a shareholder to vote at shareholders' meetings and to receive dividends paid by a company. Common stocks have usually better yield over the long-term, however, at the cost of higher risk in case of liquidation of a company. Preferred stocks differ from common stocks in that they usually come with limited or no voting rights at all. In addition to that, preferred stocks have higher claims on dividends and distribution of assets by a company. This means that in case of liquidation of a company, preferred shareholders have priority over common shareholders. In such an event, common shareholders get paid only after creditors, bondholders, and preferred shareholders were paid.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration above shows the daily chart of Philip Morris Inc. stock. It also shows quarterly dividend intervals above the timeline (blue D in circle). Dividends paid to investors were equal to 1.20 USD per share.
Dividends
Dividend represents the distribution of corporate profits to eligible shareholders. Many stock titles tend to pay dividends to their investors on a monthly, quarterly, semi-annually or annually basis. These dividends can be either in the form of cash or stock. Typically, common shareholders are eligible for dividend payments when they hold the stock before the ex-dividend date. Some companies choose not to pay dividends and instead they reinvest corporate profit back into the company.
Stocks categorization
1. Growth stocks - Growth stocks have higher earnings and grow at a faster pace than the market average. They are normally bought with the purpose of capital appreciation. Growth stocks rarely pay dividends.
2. ncome stocks - These types of stocks pay dividends to their investors on a regular basis. Income stocks are commonly bought with the purpose to generate consistent income.
3. Value stocks - Value stocks are stocks that have a low price-to-earnings ratio.
4. Blue-chip stocks - Blue-chip stocks are the large companies that are well known and have a stable history of growth.
5. Penny stocks - These stocks are small public companies whose shares normally trade below price of 1 USD/per share.
Illustration 1.03
Picture above shows the monthly chart of Tesla Inc. stock. It is an example of the growth stock which appreciated more than 20 000% since 1st June 2010.
DISCLAIMER: This content serves solely educational purposes.
Importance of diversification across asset classesAny feedback and suggestions would help in further improving the analysis! If you find the analysis useful, please like and share our ideas with the community. Keep supporting :)
In this post, we have attempted to cover the importance of portfolio diversification. To drive our point home, we have taken a 2-year reference and divided it into 3 parts:
Pre-pandemic : January 2019 to 10th Feb 2020
Height of the pandemic : Feb 2020 to 23rd March 2020
Post pandemic : 30th March 2020 till present
The 3 classes of asset that we included in this analysis are:
Cryptocurrency- ETH
Stocks- S&P 500
Commodity- Gold
Pre-pandemic period: ETH was on a bull run as were other major crypto currencies. It shot up more than 125% during that period. The S&P 500 index was up by 38.5% during the same period, while the precious commodity, Gold, rose by 24.15%.
At the height of the pandemic: It was a testing time for the diversification of portfolio. Holding any particular asset class and not diversifying at all, proved to be a disaster for many naive investors. ETH dropped by approximately 65%. The S&P 500 index tanked almost 33%, while Gold, considered to be the safest asset, lost 12%.
Post-pandemic period: It was one of the massive bull-runs in the history of bull runs. Patient investors who entered into the markets at the height of the pandemic saw their wealth growing multiple times. Moreover, with the Central banks around the world printing currencies at a furious pace, the only way to beat inflation was to invest in high alpha generating assets.
ETH shot up almost 1800% during this period, which is a 18x return. The S&P 500 shot up over 94%, while Gold went up by a meagre 21%.
Considering the returns and the risk over these 3 periods, it can be stated with absolute conviction that the need for diversification is supreme.
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Any feedback and suggestions would help in further improving the analysis! If you find the analysis useful, please like and share our ideas with the community. Keep supporting :)