Battle-tested through the ups and downs of Etherium historyA trading strategy that's been battle-tested through the ups and downs of Eth's history. This strategy doesn't blink in the face of market chaos or get swayed by emotions. It's a calculated game plan that knows when to step in and when to step back.
Compare that to emotional investing, where fear and greed call the shots. Imagine making decisions when you're on an emotional rollercoaster—buying high in excitement and selling low in panic. That's a recipe for disaster.
A backtested risk-managed strategy, though, is like a cool-headed coach that sticks to the game plan no matter what. It's about discipline, rules, and consistency. So, do you want to ride the emotional wave or play the long game with a strategy that has been consistently profitable year on year since 2016 (start of Eth - substantiated by backtest data).
Average annual net profit (substantiated by the backtest)
196% (No Leverage) & 661% (3x leverage)
This year (Jan 2023 to Sep/15th/2023) has already generated
45.21% (no leverage) 144.93% (3x leverage) in net profit.
This strategy does Not re-paint, No-look ahead bias. and 100% forward tested. Tradingview has a default caution for strategies that use the multitimeframes data. This does not apply to this strategy as all calculations are based on closed bars.
So how does it work?
Postions are entered based on RSI Divergence on Higher Timeframes and confirmed by the ATR.
Stop Loss and Trailing ATR-based Take Profit:The strategy incorporates a risk management mechanism with a built-in stop loss set at 8%. Additionally, it employs a trailing take profit mechanism based on ATR. This means that as the trade moves in the desired direction, the take profit level adjusts itself based on the current volatility, allowing for gains to be secured as the trend progresses.
SMI-based Re-entry after Stop-out:
Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) is used as a re-entry signal if the trade is stopped out (i.e., the stop loss is triggered). This re-entry is contingent on higher timeframes and ATR still supporting the original trend, indicating that the initial stop-out may have been a false signal.
Portfolio Reinvestment for Compound Growth:
The strategy allocates 95% of the portfolio's capital to each trade.
This approach maximizes the potential for compound growth, as a significant portion of the available capital is reinvested in each trade, provided that risk management rules are satisfied. This approach is appropriate for this strategy as strict risk management is applied and the winrate is almost 50%
Accounting for Exchange Fees:
Exchange fees, set at 0.1%, are factored into the strategy's calculations.
This ensures that trading decisions take into account the cost of executing trades on the exchange.
Avoiding Lookahead Bias and Repainting:
The strategy is designed to prevent lookahead bias by making calculations based only on closed bars of price data. Lookahead bias occurs when future data is used to make past trading decisions, potentially leading to unrealistic expectations.
Backtested
Are you a champion hopper? 😬🙈Morning traders.
I started yesterday morning by posting an idea with the phrase below.
'Lets start the morning with everyone's favourite! Gold'
Well I'm kinda doing the same again this morning but this time it so we can all have some more food for thought at the breakfast table instead!
Now here me out, I have drawn the two graphs in this mornings idea on the same gold H1 strategy chart I shared yesterdays idea from.
The comment section was a good mix of feedback, some miffed at the stop out possibly and others very realistic in the reality that stop losses occur in trading.
For this strategy yesterdays stop loss means we now have 5 losses in a row. But I wont be hopping off to another method or style either.
90% of traders get spooked at the first sign of a losing run and jump to the next strategy.
Why will I stick with this strategy for gold on H1? Because of probability being factored in from the back tested data available.
Hand on heart how many people out there actually back test a strategy?
You can't plan for probability in your risk management if you have no data for your strategy.
Transparency when sharing ideas has always been key for me and strategy test data is always included in my ideas just as the H1 gold data is at the bottom of this idea.
This leads me back on to the graph drawings in this idea.
The one on the left is the last two weeks of data for this strategy the one on the right is the last two years! Growing capital takes time.
Losing runs are part of trading the growing capital part comes from trading a strategy with a proven edge.
If you have a proven system why hop on to another one?
I'll end this idea with a great quote from Steve Burns.
'10% of successful trading is creating a system with an edge. The other 90% is following it'
Enjoy your day traders.
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Thank you.
Darren