Elliott Wave Analysis For BTCUSDBTCUSD is coming higher, now very close to former swing low at 11150 so bearish impulse can be invalidated soon. That is why we adjusted the wave count, and are now looking for wave X rally, but still same bias; recovery is in three waves so bears are possible but only confirmed when trendline support of current upward channel is broken. If on the other hand, coin will continue to rise and break the trendline resistance with an impulsive recovery away from the low, then we will turn bullish again and look back towards August high.
It this development the most important is close observation of current bounce that should be key to identify whats next for BTC.
Bearish Patterns
Double Top Chart PatternThe Double Top or Bottom Chart Pattern is a reversal pattern as its name implies, the pattern is made up of two consecutive peaks or troughs that are roughly equal, with a moderate trough or peak in-between. This reversal could signal an end of an uptrend or downtrend. ( Double top with an end to an uptrend in this case).
Double Top Chart Pattern
A Double Top chart pattern is comprised of three main components:
After a long bullish trend , the price reaches the highest point of the current uptrend
After the highest point, there is a decline in price getting support from the support line
After this trough the price again increases and reaches another peak falling to the same support line
The long bullish trend is the prior trend which is reversed once the pattern is completed, with reaching the highest point of the current trend marking the 1st peak followed by a trough which gets support from the support line i.e. the neckline. Later the price further increases to reach the 2nd peak which gets resistance from the resistance line of 1st peak (usually). Once the price falls and breaks the neckline the formation is complete. The target price for the same is taken as the difference between the neckline and the 2nd peak, with the neckline acting as resistance after the pattern completion.
Volume is a confirmatory indication that increases substantially as the breakout is observed and confirms the double top pattern completion!
There are few limitations as well to the Double Top Pattern:
Can be extremely harmful if identified incorrectly
Sometimes the peaks or the trough could be just normal resistance than long-lasting change
Might get converted to Triple top, so pay attention to the volume carefully
Therefore, one must be extremely careful and patient before jumping to conclusions. Go Trading!!!
Further, there are four different types of Double Top pattern based on their respective average rises and failure rate percentage, namely: Adam-Adam; Adam-Eve; Eve-Eve, and Eve-Adam. Where the average is the measure of the price movement from the breakout point to the prime point i.e. 1st peak or the Ultimate high.
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Three Drives Harmonic Chart PatternThe three drivers chart pattern is a well known harmonic chart pattern that acts as a trend reversal. The pattern consists of either three higher highs or lower lows which is an indication of a potential trend reversal.
There are two different types of three drives pattern:
Bullish
Bearish
Bullish Three Drives Pattern
There are three different waves in the pattern as the name suggests, three drives.
With the subsequent drives, there are lower lows that are being formulated in the pattern with three different bottoms.
Once the third wave is completed and the low point has been observed, a buy signal can be created with formulating the Fibonacci levels and generating the buy signal with a Fibonacci extension of 1.27 or 1.628.
For the stop-loss and take profit levels, you can formulate a new Fibonacci level with the start and end of the pattern and keep 161.8% as the stop-loss level and 61.8% as the take profit level.
The important point that confirms the drives is a similar time period between the uptrend after the 1st wave and 2nd wave also a similar time period between the 2nd wane and 3rd wave for the downtrend.
The bearish three drives pattern is completely opposite of the bullish three dives pattern and can be spotted in a similar manner.
The three drives pattern belongs to the family of harmonic patterns and thus makes use of not just chart patterns but also technical retracement levels to validate the pattern. A three-drive pattern that does not meet the retracement criteria can be discarded.
The pattern is therefore qualitative as well as quantitative in nature.
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eLEARN ON 4 TYPES OF INDICATORSI was supposed to give some few tips on how to check some market movements through some of indicators which I Also use.
Bullish or Bearish indicators are classified depending on what they indicate; They either indicate;Volatility , Momentum, Volume and Trend.
I will give an example on each type.
Volatility Indictors show price action change in a given time,Tells nothing about direction but how the fast the price will change for you to make profit. Example is Bollinger bands.
Momentum indicators show how strong the trend is, with them you can detect when a pullback is going to occur or a reversal. Example is RSI indicator.
Volume indicators show how volume is changing with time like the OBV.
Trend indicators tell you which direction the market will be moving to like MACD. Mostly are oscillators.
I will cover an example on each in 4 episodes.
In Trading all indicators have their limitations and one can not depend only on 1 indicator , I will also show you on you can use several indicators combined.
EPISODE 1
Bollinger bands - Volatility Indicator.
They consist of a simple moving average, and 2 lines plotted at 2 standard deviations on either side of the central moving average line. The outer lines make up the band.
Simply, when the band is narrow the market is quiet. When the band is wide the market is loud.
Trading when market is trending, Bands try to squeeze to each other and that indicates that Breakout is about to happen either and Uptrend or down trend.
If the candles breakout below the bottom band, the move will generally continue in a downtrend.
If the candles breakout above the top band, the move will generally continue in an uptrend.
An example of Bollinger indicating a breakout.
Point to NOte:
If the candles breakout above the top band, the move will generally continue in an uptrend
If the candles breakout below the bottom band, the move will generally continue in a downtrend.
Bullish
Bearish
When Trading in a ranges when coin is maybe accumulating or distributing, Bollinger bands act as Resistance and support at that particular time. When you want to enter the market, You can always enter at the bottom of the lower band and sell at the top band to avoid a breakout which may happen which could be a down move or uptrend. If you enter for a long at the bottom of the range or short at the top of the range, The price naturally returns to the average as time passes.
That’s what Bollinger bands are all about; keep following, next episode is well lined up.
EW Analysis: GBPAUD In The Corrective PhaseHello traders!
GBPAUD is clearly bearish, as we see a sharp fall in impulsive price activity down from 2.085 high. We are tracking a so-called impulse, a move that is structured by five waves, where two of them are corrections. Now, we are tracking a wave 4 correction which started at 1.768 level, and it can climb a little higher as corrections are made by three waves a-b-c, before pair can look for strong resistance and a bearish resumption into a wave 5.
"A wave 4 correction can unfold as a simple zig-zag, which seems to be the best possible scenario, unless it turns out to be a flat, a triangle, or a more complex w-x-y move."
Resistance for a wave 4 correction can be at Fib. Ratio of 38.2 that comes in at 1.88/1.90 level, so watch that area as a potential resistance, especially around the previous wave "i" swing low a lesser degree. As such, there is room for slightly more upside before downtrend may resume.
Be humble and trade smart!
If you like what we do, then please like and share our idea!
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
The Cup and Handle Chart PatternCup and Handle Chart Pattern
The cup and handle chart pattern is a bullish continuation pattern that marks a consolidation period followed by a breakout. It can help to predict future price movements.
A cup and handle chart pattern is comprised of three main components:
-A prior trend, as to qualify as a continuation pattern it has to have a prior trend
-The cup, "U" shaped resembling a bowl or rounding bottom with almost equal heights on the either side
-The handle, as the cup formation is completed, a trading range develops on the right-hand side forming the handle, usually 1/3rd of the size of the prior advance
In this chart pattern, there is a prior trend followed by a cup forming with almost of the equal heights on either side with a low in observed nearly in the middle. After the low, the rice consolidates to reach near the high of the start of the cup, followed by a pullback forming a handle, similar in shape to a flag or pennant. Once the handle reaches back to the same level of the cup highs, a breakout is expected, confirming with spikes in the volume observed.
Traders can use the cup and handle to buy when the breakout is observed i.e. at the candle when price breaks the highs formed by the cup. For confirmation, traders can use the sudden increase in volume as the cup and handle completes and the breakout is observed. Traders can put stop loss at the low of the handle in order to minimize the losses if the pattern fails,
There are few limitations as well to the Cup and Handle Pattern:
-Can be difficult to be observed for novice traders
-Often might require assistance from other technical indicators
-The cup and handle might take extensive periods to play out and complete the formation
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Recent AUD/NZD Long Trade Using ResistanceI caught a nice trade here yesterday on AUD/NZD.
Price had recently broken through resistance, and we saw a strong bullish break out move.
As the bullish momentum slowed down, we saw bears come back into power and drove the price back down to resistance. At this pint, we need to look for 2 actions:
- Either price will break through the resistance level and the bearish move will continue, most likely down to previous support levels in which you could enter a short trade when the break through is confirmed.
OR
- We will see a rejection at the trend line where the price is struggling to break through the resistance, and bulls come back into the equation to drive the price upward. This is when you can enter a long trade.
After identifying the rejection at the trend line, also in line with the MACD and RVI, I entered a long trade and banked a nice profit before bears came back into power and drove the price down.
Support and resistance levels can be used to identify some lovely trade setups, as we have seen with AUD/NZD.
Inverse Head and Shoulder Pattern using BTCUSDThe head and shoulders chart pattern is a price reversal pattern that helps traders identify when a reversal may be underway after a trend is exhausted. It is of two types: Head & Shoulder and Inverse Head & Shoulder. This reversal could signal an end of an uptrend or downtrend. (Inverse Head & Shoulder with an end to downtrend in this case)
Inverse Head & Shoulder:
An inverse head & shoulder pattern is comprised of three main components:
-After a long bearish trend, the price falls to a trough and subsequently rises to a peak
-The price again falls to form a second trough substantially below the initial low and rises again to the same peak
-The price falls for the third time but to the level of the first trough only before rising back to the same peak again
In this chart pattern there are three trough in which a large trough (the head i.e. the second trough) has a slightly smaller trough on either side of it (right and left shoulder that are the first and third peak), with all of the trough increasing to a same level of resistance i.e. the peak until where all the troughs had risen, called as neckline in the pattern.
Once the third trough (right shoulder) moves back to neckline it is likely to breakout to a bullish uptrend indicating a trend reversal hereby, which is the basic explanation of Head and Shoulder.
Traders can use Inverse head and shoulder to buy when the breakout is observed i.e. at the neckline after the right shoulder reached there completing the Inverse Head & Shoulder formation. For confirmation traders can use the drop in volume as the Inverse Head & Shoulder is forming and a sudden increase in the volume as breakout is observed suggesting a shift from sellers before the pattern to buyers after the pattern.
There are few limitations as well to the Head & Shoulder Pattern:
-Sometimes false breakouts might be observed
-The time duration for formation of the pattern might be too long
-Trough or peak might be pretty far from the neckline resulting in large stop loss distances which might have o reviewed consistently
-The price may see pullback after the third peak or trough often confusing few traders
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EW Analysis: BNBBTC Remains Bearish: Wedge Pattern Formation?Hello traders!
Today we will talk about BNBBTC and its price action from Elliott Wave perspective.
BNBBTC is clearly bearish, but it's obvious that is slowing down. However, we still see room for more weakness, especially because of the recent three-wave intraday corrective recovey only. So, it's ideally unfolding a bigger ending diagonal (wedge pattern) into wave C that can send the price even down to important November 2018 and 0.0012 support level.
The main reason why we think so is because BNB(Binance) is currently not so strong and we also believe that BTC dominance will come back soon, so all these evidences suggest that BNBBTC may stay under bearish pressure. Count would be invalidated only in case of a rise back above 0.0023 level.
Be humble and trade smart!
If you like what we do, then please like and share our idea!
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
EW Analysis: XMRBTC May Break 2019 LowsHello traders!
Today we will talk about XMRBTC and its price action from Elliott Wave perspective.
XMRBTC is sideways since 2019 and it's ideally forming a big bearish triangle pattern in wave "iv", which means that we should see even more weakness and sooner or later we may see new 2020 lows that can send the price down to 0.0060 - 0.0050 area, if not even lower.
XXX/BTC crosses are highly dependent on BITCOIN.Dominance, which we still see it bullish and it's looking for more upside, so BTC will most likely stay stronger than ALTcoins and most of XXX/BTC cross pairs may remain under bearish pressure.
Be humble and trade smart!
If you like what we do, then please like and share!
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
NSE-HDFC - EXPECTING 1650 IN COMING DAYS & DOUBLE BOTTOM NSE:HDFC STRONG BEARISH DOGI AND STRONG PRICE REVERSAL IS ALREADY FORMED WITH GOOD VOLUME. EXPECTING TO REACH 1650 IN COMING DAYS
XAUUSD - M Dears,
I know most of the traders think about this chart it is a new chart, but as you can see with the attached chart you can see the old one it was 21 July 2019.
and we have mentioned the gold from that date it is bullish, and it will not be bearish till touching the resistant, and that time we want to get the confirmation of the bearish with price action.
Note: we believe the coronaviruses will start to begin to weaken, and all the markets, economies, and life will working and life gradually returns to normal.
take care and be in save.
XBT Really Struggling to break Resistance Back to 5800???XBT has tried to break that key level of resistance multiple times now, the more times it is rejected the weaker it gets.
after a quick spike up to 7300 last night we still closed below that resistance level.
yesterday we broke the supply zone so you will see I have made the new supply zone which is at high 7's
at this stage in my opinion if we close above res we will be heading up to the 7800 mark
however over the next few days I will be keeping a close eye on this trendline. (the trend is your friend)
if it doesn't respect the trend then down we go to 5800.
Trend bias still bullish
over the weekend I will post some other bitmex pairs for you guys
4hr XBT
Regular DivergenceRegular Divergence signifies either a correction to the trend or after further confirmation, a complete reversal of the trend.
Regular Divergence is identified by comparing price action (PA) to the Relative strength index indicator (RSI).
Regular Bearish Divergence (RbD) occurs when price action forms a higher high (HH) but the RSI indicator forms a lower high (LH).
RbD is confirmed by the candle close below the previous candle low.
BASIC
The entry price is taken from the candle close.
The stop loss price is taken from the candle high.
The target is set at 1-2RR.
The trade is closed at the target price.
ADVANCED
50% of the position is closed at target.
The stop loss price is moved to the entry price.
The Long hedge position is the size of the initial short position.
The hedge entry price is taken from the candle close.
The stop loss price is taken from the previous swing low.
The target is set at 1-2RR.
50% of the position is closed at target.
The stop loss price is moved to the entry price.
DOW 1,000 DROP DJI dropped 1,000 points yesterday, whats next? heres some ways to navigate:
28174 is a key pivot
Scenarios:
A) a break above 28174 with a bullish impulse should see the gap be filled with more buyers coming in
B) a rejection of 28174 could see a inside day then a deciding break tomorrow either way
C) a break below 27900 will see more sellers and a trip maybe to the 200 day EMA