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Andrews' Pitchforks are FunHere's an example of a pitchfork drawn on the 2 weekly BNC:BLX chart, measured from the March 2020 low to the Nov 2021 high and completed at the Nov 2022 low, and then extended in direction and levels (up to 9 levels can be added). The chart above makes for a solid example of how pitchforks can be used to derive a trend or channel and find solid support and resistance levels within it. They are also just fun to work with! There are several types of pitchforks which can be tested until you've found one that works best for your chart. They are called Andrews' Pitchforks because they were originally developed by Alan Andrews, with several derivatives created by modifying calculation for the placement of the pitchfork's handle (the slope of its median line): Normal Pitchfork - Andrews' original pitchfork tool. Schiff Pitchfork - moves start of the handle line halfway to the base of the channel. Modified Schiff Pitchfork - handle start is adjusted by a distance equal to half the difference between price values of its first two points (first low and high, or first high and low) of three. Inside Pitchfork - handle adjusted to half of the vertical & half of the horizontal distance between the first two points of three. In the example above, I chose a Modified Schiff Pitchfork , and then identified 3 points of consecutive highs and lows. In this case: low -> high -> low. You can choose to do the opposite of this and start from high -> low -> high, typically your first point should represent the beginning of a new trend. Play around with trying this in different timeframes, and also try editing / adding / removing levels. You can try basic levels at increments of 25% or by utilizing classic Fibonacci levels (or both, as shown above). Pitchforks are a type of Fibonacci tool, so I like using classic Fib levels. You could just use the Fibonacci Channel tool and get a similar result. But, the nice thing about utilizing a pitchfork is that it can help you identify a channel that may not be immediately obvious. Here is another example of using a Modified Schiff Pitchfork to derive trends on a popular altcoin, BINANCE:HBARUSD : Thanks for reading, I hope this was helpful to you. I learned more about pitchforks myself while working on this, and encourage others to do the same!
BNC:BLXEducation
by dudebruhwhoa
The fearless minds of strong men!Through out history men have done great things, so great that some are still not understood today in our modern advanced world. We tend to think they had less then us, (most likely true) maybe that's what made them great, the will to reach new heights. It's the unknown that they reached for for fearlessly. Most of the time reaching for nothing or too high. Through virtue and passing knowledge to one another while working together the steps to greatness have been achieved over time. In our modern world many things have changed but our senses remain the same. Fear still has the same effect on us, it makes us do irrational things. Decisions made under emotional distress has always led to the same results through out eternity. Another quality these men had was to go where others had not or dared not. Once again fear, fear of the unknown. Travelling the path less travelled. If the path is less travelled than by default there is more new things or ideas to discover. Having said all of this about conquering your fear and being bold, another thing all these great men had in common was preparation, organization and contingency plans with alternate strategies. Preparation and plans are tools to control your fears and emotions. This brings us to to Aristotle. Arguable one the greatest teachers of all time. He said "We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit." So... making small gains in investing is the longer march to victory. He also said "those who know, do. Those who understand teach." Aristotle taught Alexander on a face to face basis for approximately 7 years. Alexander then went out to find his destiny saying, "There is nothing impossible to him who will try." On to Julius Caesar and his famed glory, he always looked to match Alexander. Some of His famous quotes are "Without training, they lacked knowledge, without knowledge, they lacked confidence, without confidence, the lacked victory." Once again, preparation... with that preparation he was then led to say another famous quote, "I came, I saw, I conquered." Trading view understands this as well and they have the same outlook. "Look, then leap." This a climbing the mountain outlook. At the end of the day it's the same thing. Investing is very similar to preparing for battle or for a difficult climb. Investors are both your allies and enemies just like the terrain on a climb or the battle field . It's up to you to figure out and know when to push and when to retreat. Looking back at history can be insightful to say the least. When we look at charts we are looking at what has past before and look for the similar patterns. This too is not new knowledge (history repeating) it's age old information but a lot of people today are blind to it. King Salomon quote in ecclesiastic eludes to just this. "What has been is what will be, and what has been done is what will be done, and there is nothing new under the sun." History is cyclical it always comes back around in some form or another. Another great quote from Salomon is " words kill, words give life, they're either poison or fruit... You choose." I have added the CM_Williams_VIX to the chart. On the monthly it has done some interesting patterns in the past, take a look. So... Choose your destiny, it's up to you. What ever road you choose... be blessed, if not one way, another, and always make the best of what comes your way. Thanks for looking WeAreSat0shi Stay Blessed!
BNC:BLXEducation
by WeAreSat0shi
1
Bitcoin and Elliot playing in the waves of time!This chart by no means is a price prediction. It's a look into a possible future for bitcoin in the coming years based on Elliot wave theory. In this chart I am are assuming that Bitcoins next move is the start of wave 5 in Elliot wave theory. When ever it ends the theory states that a massive ABC correction will follow, which would kill the mania and be bitcoins first true BIG bear market. This correction ( crash ) would not only be devastating by price but also by time, as it would most likely last multiple years and be the longest bear market to date. It would physiologically kill the market, and it's this this bear market that would likely kill all the shit coins and show which projects will last for years to come. It's only a devastating crash like that would cleans the market of scams, that would then catapult all the survivors to the next level in the eventual impulse wave 3! Time frame My time frame for this to start is 2026 to 2029. It all depends on how long it takes for the first impulse wave of wave 5 takes. How long will the bear market crash last? The question that everyone would answered is the one question that no one can answer. It could be that some or most people might not see new highs for the rest of their natural lives... So 10 to 30 years... But I would say most likely 10 to 15 years would be in the cards. What about adoption? I believe that in this bear market is when the true adoption and the realization of the use and necessity of Bitcoin/blockchain/defi to the masses. This is where Bitcoin gains critical mass in my opinion, but it will take a long time. This is all hypothetical of course providing we haven't lost technology through war or any other interruptions. This is my outlook for the next decade or so, but I might be getting ahead of my self. Let me know what you think in the comment section down below. Thanks for looking *The only certainty is, that there is no certainty *
BNC:BLXEducation
by WeAreSat0shi
Bitcoin Cycles Explained (Elliott Wave Theory + NVT Indicator)Hello Traders. In this post, we are going to revise our Elliott Wave counts and also go into a deeper dive of how we can interpret the current decade cycle for Bitcoin. I am going to do my best and divide each section by using past cycles, Elliott Wave Theory, and one indicator in combination to help validate my point of view on where Bitcoin might be heading for the next cycle. If you haven't already, please do make sure to read my post on parabolic patterns and how I was able to predict the the 2021-2022 bullrun: As stated above, the three factors that I will be covering on how we can dissect the next Bitcoin cycle is: 1) Cycles (growth cycles according to the halving cycles) 2) Elliott Wave Theory + Market Psychology 3) NVT Indicator (Network Value to Transaction) --------------------- 1) Cycles (growth cycles according to the halving cycles): One of the biggest phenomenon to ever occur in the current financial market period is that Bitcoin has been working in a relatively algorithmic parabolic trend where cycles have been continuing in a compounding matter in terms of percentages. That begs the question, “are we going to assume that all past cycles will rhyme with the current cycle?” This is impossible to answer, but, we can take the time and try to predict cycles within cycles by discerning the growth phase of each cycle, and whether it will transition into something new, or, continue the fashion of rhyming cycles of the past. The best way to interpret Bitcoin's price action is via the logarithmic chart which shows the overall square root function of each cycle. Simply put, realistically, the log chart is slowing down on the longer timescale, meaning that Bitcoin is now currently in its fourth phase as shown in the chart - price maturity and store of value. Price maturity is shown in most stock models, meaning that markets do not move in straight lines and will always eventually have an end to all finite things, including price action. This chart also helps support the 'lengthening market cycle' theory, which is based on how fast the growth of a stock is shown. This idea works for Bitcoin in respect to how we cannot just continue to grow exponentially, which can then be backed by the Elliott Wave theory, which we will discuss later down below. As stated above, the cause of these growth cycles are what I believe (and the only way we can divide it by) is done via Bitcoin halvings, which leads to a supply shock and a subsequent rally, as that has been the only way we have observed in the past decade. As stock markets have their own cycles, mostly in the form of recessionary phases, Bitcoin works more along the line of where scarcity is the main factor. As history has shown that with a lower supply, the demand for the coins go higher, meaning that the fundamental value of Bitcoin may go down, and that becomes more of a 'Store of Value' asset, just like gold. Although this chart is just an observation and educated guess, we can still assume that this chart is realistic and a probable scenario as it is calculated with a balance of market psychology, technicals, and overall market cycle theories. If we also apply Murphy's law, we will also have to assume that all good things will come to an eventual end for a cycle. This is why I have divided each trading period in terms of Bitcoin's halving cycles, as that has been a great psychological indicator of how markets have reacted accordingly to price action in terms of time. The four cycles I have witnessed, and witnessing now in regards to the evolution of the markets, can be divided as such: a. 1st Growth Cycle - Use Case Discovery 
b. 2nd Growth Cycle - Price Discovery
 c. 3rd Growth Cycle - General Institutional Interest
 d. 4th Growth Cycle - Price Maturity (Store of Value); Retail Interest The first use case discovery is essentially the bare bones of the beginning of a trading period. The use-case discovery phase helps the sole investors create impactful change in the organization by bringing all investors together to collaborate. This format identifies high-value, low-effort use-cases and ensures these initiatives are being driven from the bottom-up rather than top-down. This is what has sparked the idea of currency replacement, or, as an alternative to the banking system as explained in the White Paper. The second growth cycle is what is known as the price discovery phase. Price discovery is the over balancing result of the interaction between sellers and buyers, or in other words, supply and demand outweighs one another. This is the next process of finding out the price of a given asset or commodity and gives higher interest to the early investors as the first resistance has been breached. There is a fair chance that this is a sound project and may be deemed as viable investment. Price discovery is the central function of all markets. It depends on a variety of tangible and intangible factors, from market structure to liquidity to information flow. The third phase is where we see enough people entering the markets to show that there is demand. As bitcoin moved higher throughout the year, the question was asked, “What makes bitcoin different now than the rallies we saw back in 2013 and 2017?” The biggest difference between this rally and past moves is that institutional investors have bought into the game, and this is seen as a crucial confidence boost for retail investors. The launch of CME Bitcoin futures in 2017, for example, and options in 2020, has helped spark massive institutional interest, and allowed investors to gain exposure to bitcoin without the regulatory, tax and custody issues facing the physical market. General institutional interest brought massive amounts of liquidity into the market by luring retail into the game as well. By this time, we can now see Bitcoin as solidified. This stage of the growth cycle is still considered to be the "early stages" of price action. The fourth phase is what is known as the price maturity phase, or store of value phase. This is where fundamentals have been solidified to the point of no return. Everyone knows what Bitcoin is. They may not necessarily know how it functions, but it's embedded within the society and more so even in cultures. We will see people interested in Bitcoin no matter what it brings to the table in terms of fundamentals. It is now considered a store of value, which is why it is widely regarded as the digital gold. The store of value concept does not mean it's a hedge against financial markets like many are deeming it to be, rather, Bitcoin should be seen as a highly liquid and a finite asset where people will try to find a price that is deemed "fair". Due to the finite aspect of it, this creates the idea of scarcity (i.e. one BTC = one lambo) and everyone wants a piece of the pie. This phase creates the largest liquidity within the markets making Bitcoin one of the easiest and most accessible assets to trade, relatively. As Bitcoin is now in its highly liquid state, this has created a much different and indirect investment philosophy than what we saw back in 2016-2018. Most people have "hoarded" to buy as much Bitcoin as they could back in that time period. Now, it's more of trying to find the "fair value" price and continued speculation on where Bitcoin actually might bottom for the current trading period. Due to this, we can see that the Bitcoin market has fully evolved into a huge liquid asset where the masses are trying to find the price floor, making it more difficult to trade. This in return can make the cycles longer. --------------------- 2) Elliott Wave Theory + Market Psychology Elliott Wave Theory has been a great tool to help increase the probability of predicting a larger cycle by using progressive actionary and corrective waves, in the form of 5 waves (actionary) and 3 waves (correction). There is no doubt that the Elliott Wave Theory has recently seen a surge of interest within the Crypto space and we are seeing an abundant amount of new traders trying to decipher Bitcoin through the Elliott Wave Theory. By having more people interested in trying to predict cycles via the Elliott Wave Theory, it then creates more impact on the herd psychology and efficacy of the theory, essentially increasing the percentage chance of a scenario playing out if many can agree to a collective scenario, also known as the self-fulfilling prophecy. The drawback is that it creates a plethora of open interpretations and can create a divide on which scenario is deemed viable. By understanding the theory inside out (please read my complete Elliott Wave Theory tutorial), you may have a great advantage in understanding what scenario is deemed best for you and the market.
 By adhering to the rules (rules must be met within the Elliott Wave Theory) and a set of guidelines provided by the Theory itself (the more guidelines the better - but doesn’t have to meet all guidelines, hence, this is what creates variations within wave interpretations and counts), you can then create multiple scenarios that may help you narrow down a sound scenario. Market Psychology is inherently tied to each wave structure of the motive and corrective waves. If you understand the rules and guidelines, you can then use that to your advantage by breaking down each wave degree according to market psychology. Each wave degree, both motive actionary and corrective, can be seen as a story as Ralph Elliott, the creator, said himself. How we can apply the psychology to each wave: a) Wave 1 (Actionary) + Wave 2 (Corrective): Buying on a wave 1 of the smaller degree has always been considered to be the best time to buy, usually by hindsight. Most of the general public will not be invested into Bitcoin during this phase, no matter how bullish one may be. This is usually where you will see the most fear related news within the markets when correcting for a wave 2. Most people will collectively think that the markets cannot recover as wave 2 can be the deepest of retracements within the five wave structure. Every correction within Bitcoin’s cycle is what we can call the ‘delusional phase’, or self-deception for that matter. The first bear market that Bitcoin has ever witnessed can be seen all the way back in 2010-2011, where the cycle degree of Wave 1 has corrected roughly 93% for Wave 2, wiping out an immense amount of profits that people bought on the way up of the previous cycle.
 A great example of that time period after that 93% correction has occured, can be that Bitcoin was seen by many as an insecure form of currency, had hacking issues, and just was overall considered to be a risky asset because of the sharp corrective nature of wave 1 to 2. At the bottom of 2015, we saw similar news along the lines of “Bitcoin is unsafe”, “Hacking issues”, “Bitcoin is not going to be able to recover”. The current bear cycle of 2022 can be deemed as the era of stablecoins, DEFI hacks, Mt. Gox payouts, and so forth. Wave 2’s are also very interesting in the idea that it is usually the period of time where people will usually say “I told you so”. Usually, the aftermath of wave 2’s will see even more bad news during this period of time. Due to the already harsh correction after wave 1, the price will usually not correct as hard even if the sentiment is worse than what we saw during the correction phase. A typical example you will see people saying during this time is, “This is the end for Bitcoin, and is going to $0”. b) Wave 3 (Actionary): This is a phase where everyone can be considered a genius and is not losing money. Most importantly, this is a period where most bears have already swapped to a bullish stance. The general public is almost always a step behind the markets because of this haze of euphoria. Due to this, this creates an extreme surge in price creating the characteristic of a Wave 3, where it will be the strongest movement in terms of time and price (most often, not always). This is a period of time where the general public is also where they are the invested into Bitcoin the most (or any other asset). You will typically see investors buying in or near the top of wave 3. This is where most people will question themselves, “this is not going to end, is it?” , “when will this parabolic trend end?”. This is where the wave 4 correction usually starts to come in once the general mass is asking the same question to themselves). c) Wave 4 (Corrective): This is surprisingly not the stage where most will call for an extreme bottom like we see in wave 2’s. Rather, due to the extreme rise of wave 3’s, most will deem this as the “healthy” correction stage because most will not sell their positions in anticipation for higher levels. The interesting aspect of market psychology is where the vast majority of people will hold through a wave 4, and will typically be in surprise when the wave 5 comes in, which helps re-confirm their bullish bias that the trend is going to continue. d) Wave 5 (Actionary): This is most often the stage where people will be even more invested into the asset, creating the highest liquidity vulnerability of any stage. All of the problems that occurred in wave 3 rolls over into wave 5 due to most people having already entered on a wave 3 or 4. Wave 5 usually offsets the anticipation of reconfirming the bullish bias that was created from the wave 3, hence, why most people will get burned the biggest after wave 5 ends. You will typically see mass psychology saying that, “this is going to $1M per Bitcoin”. The opposite can be applied on every bear market structure as well on the A and C waves of the larger ABC pullback for wave 2, where A and C are considered the actionary waves. As long you understand the 5 wave + 3 wave structures which can't be discussed in full detail within this post, you can then apply the exact opposite of what happens in a downtrend. For example, as stated above, I have mentioned that most people will buy into the top of actionary waves of 3 and 5. The reverse can be said for the downtrend - most people will sell off on the bottom of the actionary waves of 3 and 5 of the downtrend (also known as a capitulation phase), and instead of being euphoric like we see at top of waves 3 and 5, we see complete despair on waves 3 and 5 of the downtrend. --------------------- So this continues to beg the question, how can we take advantage of making sure we buy or sell at the right time according to the wave psychology structure?
 - Future of finance is seen at resistances, and Fear/Uncertainty is seen near supports, most typically. Remembering this will help indefinitely to your investment practices as the general public will usually be fearful during supports (Bears will also take advantage of trying to drive price down further), and euphoria during resistances or price discovery. After the 5th has ended, this is where the reset continues on each smaller 5 wave degree cycles. Those who have turned too bullish in waves 3 and 4 as stated above, the biggest mistake will be continuing to “buy the dip”, thinking it’s still part of that healthy correction like we saw for wave 4. 
 - Understand that if you know we are nearly finished with a 5 wave move, you are most likely transitioning into a bear market correction. Every correction of the bear market has been consisted of a 3 wave move as seen in the chart above. - By understanding that Bitcoin has gone through vicious cycles, we have countlessly seen this happen on every cycle. The question continues to be begged, will this finally be the beginning of an end to Bitcoin’s cycle, or, will this be the continued algorithmic continuation to newer highs? --------------------- 3) NVT Indicator (Network Value to Transaction This simple indicator has been one of the best predictors for accumulation zones for the past 10 years, and may be the only indicator you may ever really need to know when to buy Bitcoin. This answers my personal, "When Do I Buy Bitcoin?" question. The 'NVT' Indicator, is one of the most simple, yet highly effective indicators to date. This can be used to find ALL of the accumulation zones indicated by the overbought (red) and oversold (gray) territories. For simplicity: ⚪ Gray = Buy 🔴 Red = Sell The NVT indicator excludes the ‘FAIR PRICE’ of Bitcoin, and disregards the price at any given level. It is merely used as a metric to tell you that people may be accumulating in the GRAY zone due to the inactivity of the Bitcoin network. The current bear market has brought the NVT indicator BACK into the gray zone, further suggesting that even at $20,000 levels, you may be looking at possible BUYS for the next major cycle. This is also, effectively, a Dollar Cost Average (DCA) strategy, at best. It is the value of the market cap divided by the data transactions. In simpler terms, it is the number of Bitcoins in circulation divided by the number of Bitcoins transacted at the end of the day. In essence, the lower the value ratio, it can essentially give an extended warning signal that Bitcoin is most probably entering a period of inactivity and prolonged correction if it is in the gray zone. This can be translated to possibly as a buy signal. The reverse can be said about the NVT indicator going into the red zone. This means the activity is far higher and can indicate a signal that a prolonged period of overbought-ness can occur in the markets.

 As this is merely a preparation indicator, this can help you confirm a certain bias if used in conjunction with the Elliott Wave Theory. As with all indicators, this does have its drawbacks, hence, why it should be combined with other indicators and theories. The main drawback can be that it doesn't give a certain range of a time to "Buy" or "Sell". It is merely an indicator to tell you that, "hey it might be time to sell or buy Bitcoin". --------------------- 4) Scenarios (combining the Elliott Wave Theory and NVT indicator) 1st Scenario: If we are going to combine the rhyming cyclical moves for Bitcoin of the past decade, and speculate (assume) that we will see no real changes in corrections, we can assume that this cycle may have the biggest weight when combined with market psychology, with the added help of the NVT indicator, which is also in the gray zone. By assuming that the actionary cycle wave 3 has ended, we have to assume that the current move down is in a corrective wave. We can assume that wave 4 of the cycle degree is in its finishing stages. The correction can be either completed here, or, we can be seeing one more move down. As the current sentiment is collectively seeing this as a potential bottom zone, this can also help us stick to this scenario bias. This scenario in theory should work perfectly in retrospect if this scenario were to play out. For example, I mentioned that the biggest mistake of buying near the top of wave 3 happens the most by general investors. We are seeing to extent, actually, by a large degree, that most people are still holding their Bitcoins at a relatively high loss (can be backed by on-chain data by using the Unrealized Losses theory), and is still anticipating for more moves up. The next biggest mistake will be people continuing to hold their positions up until where wave 5 ends, or even worse, buying more near the top that will end abruptly short in this scenario. The best trading strategy for this scenario is to take profits accordingly and assume that the cycle is not going for a larger move to the upside, rather, assume that the larger 5 wave cycle is going to end near 100K as shown in the chart. 2nd Scenario: By simply adjusting our cycle waves, we can also arrange the degree waves to fit a certain bearish bias where the cycle wave 5 has ended. Adhering to the idea that we are in the market maturity phase, this can indicate that the markets are now already fully matured to the point where we can now go for the bigger correction that many may be looking for. Instead of seeing this as a shorter duration of a correction, we can also say that the current move down is just a larger 5 wave impulse creating an A Wave. The bear market rally should then follow suit, followed by another 5 waves for the larger C wave that can bring us down to levels that many would again deem Bitcoin dead. As for the NVT indicator, we can assume that Bitcoin is going to stay in the gray zone for a large extended time. 3rd Scenario: This scenario works on the idea of us being in a series of 1-2's. As we are working in a 10 year timespan, this is the least likely scenario. The only definitive backing to this scenario is that Bitcoin is going for a parabolic run that will be heavily nested for the next 5 years into uncharted territories well beyond 500K+. This would mean that Bitcoin would have to defy the next bear market for the running 5+ years or so. I hope this has helped you! All of these ideas are combined for educational purposes by using a theory that is hard to grasp technically. In the end, no one knows where Bitcoin is really heading, but we can help alleviate that by using some of the combined techniques of theories and technical analysis explained in this post. Enjoy, and be safe!
BNC:BLXEducation
by XForceGlobal
18
Dragononcrypto 3 Month Graphical ReviewIn order to promote accountability and transparency, here is a collation of all the BTC/USD calls I have made in the past 3 months. Note that some where on smaller time frames than the Daily (that is used in this graphic), such as the 1hr and 4hr, but otherwise remain relevant to the review. Bitcoin Repeating History: 10 Part TA Series On Repeating Past Patterns Full series with recent updates: bitcointalk.org Technical Analysis Highlights September-December 2019 Measuring The Move of the Descending Triangle Breakdown If 2017 Descending Triangle Repeats? Best Case Scenario Extrapolating the 50 & 200 Day MA bear crosses Extrapolating 2014 Correction - Could $6,500 Be The Low? Two & Four Year MA's Claim It's Time To Accumulate Miner Capitulation Is Here... Back Down To $3,800? TD Sequential 9 Next Week To Decide Direction? Another Bearish Bitcoin Indicator: 200 EMA & MA Bearcross If Bitcoin Repeats History? Extrapolating 2012 Breakdown A repeat of 2014? Worst Case Scenario A $2,500 Low If Bitcoin Repeats History? Descending Triangle Looking Similar
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by dragononcrypto
Bitcoin, Bonds, Gold and StocksIn this educational idea I will talk about the current state of the global economy and how Bitcoin fits in. Most people don't realize how bad the current situation is. It could last for a few more years, as we have reached a new level of madness. Right now people are buying bonds which are so expensive, that there is no way they will get anything out of them. Not only they won't get anything, but they will get less money back at maturity. They do this only because they think somebody else is going to buy them at a higher price. Bonds have risks so they should have a yield, but now they are yielding almost nothing. Even Greek bonds are yielding 2% and they are extremely risky. Imagine paying so much for something that could cost you everything. This is definitely a bubble that could last for quite some time until everything snaps. The on going war on cash will only ramp up and we are on the verge of a cashless society. There is no way banks can survive negative interests rates without collapsing. Low interest rates have damaged them very badly as they are struggling to make a return, and negative interest rates would totally destroy them as people withdraw their money. So a ban on cash is inevitable in order for such an event to be avoided. This will have a profound effect on bonds as people will prefer them from keeping their money in a bank. Not only this, but Central banks will also most likely keep on printing money and buying bonds, pushing their price even higher. All this along with aging population, too much debt and pension funds being unable to make real returns are a very explosive mix that is ready to explode any time. We are seeing this especially with European banks like Deutsche bank, as well as European nation states having problems with growth. With the Fed making its first cut in 10 years, the situation in Hong Kong getting worse and with the HKD and CNH losing their 'pegs' to the dollar also very bad signs. Not only that but there is an on going global USD liquidity crunch that is most likely going to push the dollar higher, and make people that borrowed dollars in a very tough spot. At the same time US is at full employment which is usually a point where things start trending down from that point onward. So far we are seeing US stocks having crazy valuations with their P/E ratios at pretty high levels and with large caps leading the way. This probably due to all the indexes out there, people preferring large names as a 'safe-haven' or simply larger companies having cheap access to capital to buy back their own stocks. This means that smaller companies are not following and this isn't a good sign. It shows weakness and sign that the economy is overleveraged. Central banks have muted returns by supposedly lowering risk and protecting the economy, but this has made lots of people and funds increase their leveraged positions in order to get better returns. Not only that, but US stocks are up 30% over the last 2+ years, while for UK stocks have been pretty much stuck for almost 10 years. The US economy is the biggest in the world and it is struggling, while others have been in serious trouble. The US can't remain unaffected by what is happening around it forever. From Powell's speech it is clear that the global picture is not looking good and the Fed is clearly 'worried' about it. Now let's get to Gold. Since 1460 it became obvious to me that Gold would continue higher. To me Gold's bubble hadn't truly popped (didn't correct completely), but I was totally discounting how much credit and money has come into the global economy through banks and central banks over the last 20 years. Based on that alone someone could say Gold is undervalued and with the current situation it could trend higher as a safety trade. Most fundamentals point to gold being the safety trade and not the Dollar, but so far we don't know how the world react if the dollar starts going higher. Right now it isn't impossible to see both of them go higher as it has happened over the last few months. As the world is moving into more insanity, everything should be expected. In another analysis of mine I mentioned the issues I see with Gold and why we'll never see a functioning gold standard. Long term it is too problematic and during a crisis central banks could end up dumping a lot of it. A dump could come simply due to the fact that many institutions hold it and could be used as collateral. So far many central banks have been buying, but we don't know when will they be forced to sell their stock piles. People think Central Banks can't fail, but they certainly can. They are buying an asset that is actually a threat to them if it keeps appreciating. They buy gold low so that they can regulate their currencies by selling later. Currently trust in central banks is currently at an ATL and many people are questioning their effectiveness in managing monetary policy. So far my analysis is about the current issues I see in the economy. Now let's see what how you could protect yourself in case things turn bad, because just knowing that bad things are coming is pointless. You need to know how to defend yourself. The things I will mention will allow you to capture some upside too and not just protect yourself. It will be a low risk strategy that in my opinion is well diversified. Personally like I mentioned before I am all in on BTC and that won't change, but if I wasn't, here is what I'd be doing: First of all you want something they can't control, they can't censor, they can't inflate, they can't shut down, that you can have anywhere you go with you, that they can't detect, that allows you to pay people worldwide nearly instantaneously, that is easy to verify if it is genuine by yourself, that is impossible to counterfeit or charge back, that you own and hold yourself (there is no counterparty risk), easy to store, provides you with more privacy that paypal, you can buy goods your government might disapprove and so on. Now think which of these things can gold do and which ones Bitcoin can do. Regardless of what you think about Bitcoin viability, it is always good to have some in case it succeeds. Bitcoin will most likely give you nice upside to your entire portfolio while also protecting you from government and central bank madness. You don't know when will they ban cash, You don't know when your government will default. You don't know when hyper inflation will occur. You don't know when the stock market will crash after a 10+ year rally. With all the above you can see why Bitcoin is better than Gold and why you should own some Bitcoin. Its current performance is also very telling about its future potential. Now in case you want to diversify I'd recommend to mostly stay away from most bonds, stocks, banks, real estate, most fiat currencies and most commodities. Here is what I think is best for those that like diversification and low risk: - 80% in Bitcoin, Gold, US Dollars and Yen - 20% split in several things based on your risk appetite a) USD/USDT loans on crypto currency exchanges like Bitfinex, Poloniex, Liquid and Gate. Better yields than bonds and they pay daily interest . Are also very easy available to convert to any crypto any time. Many are strong, liquid and regulated, meaning the risk of default is pretty low. b) Silver and Gold stocks. Silver has been pretty low compared to gold and its chart looks pretty good. Gold stocks could also perform really well, but you need to pick them very carefully. View these two as a leveraged Gold long position. c) Stocks that historically perform well during a recession or provide services valuable in hard times. Buying already cheap stocks, that have positive cash flows and are not in indexes. Buying some in emerging markets might be a good strategy, like some Greeks stocks which have been right at the bottom for years. Personally I wouldn't put much in here, but if I did buy stocks then emerging markets with low debt or really low P/E ratios is what I'd buy. d) In case you don't wanna buy any stocks, it would ok to get some exposure by buying some call options on certain the S&P500 in case it goes a lot higher over the next couple of years. e) In case you are scared or not feeling like doing c or d because of the risks, it would be also prudent to short some bank stocks. Regardless of whether you long stocks or buy call options, bank stocks in Europe look pretty awful and on the current environment have pretty much 0 upside and plenty of downside. Low leveraged shorts would be a nice hedge against all uncertainty. f) Buying and staking some new cryptocurrencies like Tezos, Algorand, Cosmos. Large, new cryptocurrencies that offer rewards for holding and staking are very attractive as traditional investors will prefer them for multiple reasons. Mainly due to liquidity, accessibility and due to the fact that most want to buy something that has a yield. g) Other established cryptocurrencies that are either new, are connected with real businesses, exchange tokens, privacy and so on. For example I like DOGE, BFT, QASH, GT, LEO, HT, KCS, MCO, DGD, NPXS, DCR, WAXP, FSN, NKN, GRS, BTT, DUSK, ANKR, WTX, REP, MANA, LOOM, NEXO, FTM, TUBE, XMR, RIF, DERO, BCD, SC, KMD, DASH, WAVES. I don't think the right time to invest in them is now, but they will quite attractive to put some BTC in them BTC goes above 20k h) A 1:1 leveraged Bitcoin long. Allocate some capital and long Bitcoin with low leverage. It will be very hard for you to get liquidated. Bitcoin is in a bull market and as long you buy a dip, it will be very hard for you to get stopped out. So essentially the first category is so that you can both increase your purchasing power slowly, as well as protect yourself in case things turn bad. The second is there so that you can take a bit of extra risk and risk max 20% of your capital.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by BitcoinMacro
Why Most People Don't Make It Big In The Financial MarketMost people don't make it big in the financial market because they LACK PERSPECTIVES. THEY LACK LONG TERM PERSPECTIVE. Most people don't make it big because they can't open their mind and be critical in doing analysis. Most people don't make it big because THEY BET AGAINST NEW TECH. Just as those people who bet against Henry Ford. Just as those people who bet against Internet. Just as those people who bet against Computer. Just as those people who bet against Smartphone. If you don't understand the technology, don't touch it, don't bet against it. Shorting will give you much lesser gain than betting for it and if that thing goes big. The richest man in the world are Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos and these are investors, not short sellers. Soon, Satoshi Nakamoto will be the richest man in the world. Example: If you bought Microsoft Share in 1990 WITH MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOST. You already made 100x THAT AMOUNT OF MONEY. IF YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE 100 BUCKS, YOU WILL BE MAKING 10000 BUCKS Replace this with every new tech. Apple, Tesla, Nvidia and so forth. You will see the same parallel forever. Crypto and Blockchain may be the last opportunities. Unfortunately, a lot of people will be SHORTING crypto just as those who shorted Microsoft in 90's, Apple in 2007, Nvidia before 2015 and currently Tesla. So, now you already know the answer and reasons why you failed in life and failed miserable.
NASDAQ:MSFTEducation
by UnknownUnicorn735418
BLX: Monthly view, and initial 2013 top...Very interesting how these trends panned out, with a more complete data set we can see that a target zone between 950 and 1850 was established as a potential topping zone well in advance while the price was close to $100... Time @ mode analysis of multiple timeframes, using the system's rules would have let you ride most profitable segments of the trend and avoid drawdowns moving to cash efficiently when needed -or going short-. I haven't included lower than weekly data but we also had multiple signals in the daily-3-day timeframe charts that would have given us additional details and precision. Adding in emotional signals/sentiment data, and fundamental analysis and factors, like key hidden levels of support and resistance from fundamental events, among others, the picture becomes even clearer. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BNC:BLXEducation
by IvanLabrie
BLX: Great historical data - Time at mode breakdown of BitcoinI'll cover all the main weekly, monthly, and bimonthly trends in $BTC, using the $BLX chart, which very interestingly contains historical data older than what Bitstamp offered until now at Tradingview. Great addition! You can see how the trends work, and how Time @ Mode would have let you ride them all with great precision, and specially, told you 'when to fold 'em' right before huge drawdowns. I won't get into too many specific details about how to combine these techniques and timeframes systematically to find the key turning points since that is the secret sauce of this method, but will illustrate some of the main signals we had over the years. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BNC:BLXEducation
by IvanLabrie
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