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Bounce

Understanding the "Dead Cat Bounce" in TradingIn the dynamic world of trading, one peculiar phenomenon that often catches investors' attention is the "Dead Cat Bounce." This term, as bizarre as it sounds, is a crucial concept in technical analysis and market psychology. It refers to a temporary recovery in the price of a declining stock, followed by a continuation of the downtrend. This article delves into the nuances of the Dead Cat Bounce, helping traders recognize and navigate this pattern effectively. What is a Dead Cat Bounce? Originating from the saying, "even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height," this metaphor is used to describe a brief and false recovery in a bear market. Essentially, it's a short-lived rally in the price of a stock or an index following a substantial decline, misleading some into believing that the downtrend has reversed. Characteristics of a Dead Cat Bounce Precipitating Sharp Decline: Typically, a Dead Cat Bounce occurs after a significant and rapid drop in price. Temporary Rebound: The stock or index experiences a brief period of recovery, which may be mistaken for a trend reversal. Resumption of Downtrend: The initial downtrend resumes, often eroding the gains made during the bounce. Identifying a Dead Cat Bounce The key challenge for traders is differentiating between a true market recovery and a Dead Cat Bounce. Here are some indicators: Volume Analysis: A genuine recovery often accompanies increasing trade volumes, whereas a Dead Cat Bounce may occur on lower volumes. Duration: Dead Cat Bounces are usually short-lived, lasting from a few days to a couple of weeks. Technical Indicators: Tools like moving averages, RSI (Relative Strength Index), and Fibonacci retracements can aid in identifying these patterns. Trading Strategies for Dead Cat Bounces Short Selling: Traders might short sell a stock during a Dead Cat Bounce, anticipating the resumption of the downtrend. Stop-Loss Orders: Setting strict stop-loss orders can mitigate risks if the bounce turns out to be a genuine reversal. Patient Observation: Sometimes, the best strategy is to wait and observe the price action for clearer trend confirmation. Case Studies and Examples Analyzing past instances of Dead Cat Bounces can be educational. For instance, examining the 2008 financial crisis or the dot-com bubble burst reveals classic examples of this phenomenon. Conclusion The Dead Cat Bounce is a fascinating aspect of market behavior, representing the constant battle between optimism and reality in trading. Understanding this concept is not just about recognizing a pattern but also about grasping the underlying market psychology. As always, traders should approach these scenarios with caution, equipped with sound research and a well-thought-out strategy.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by GreenCryptoTrades
Bounce Risk for Selling ShortStocks that are falling rapidly often have the illusion that they will never stop falling. The panic that settles into the mindset of an investor who is watching his or her profits and capital erode overnight can overwhelm a stock’s price action. So for a brief time, the stock can behave outside of what the chart patterns would suggest was reasonable. But the higher risk is always the bounce. Stocks can bounce without warning. Huge up days that form in a downtrend can cause significant losses for short sellers. A stock bounces because it hits a price point where: 1. b uyers are waiting to go long 2. where large-lot short sellers are preparing to exit Monthly and yearly highs are areas where there is risk for a bounce. These bounces are often caused by small-lot investors and traders perceiving this as a good place to buy a stock that has corrected. The old adage, “buy low and sell high,” prompts the uninformed to buy as a stock is running down without understanding the dynamics of a downtrend. So they buy at monthly and yearly highs when they are called out by the various news and trading chat forums: “XYZ has hit its 52-week price, this is a good time to buy XYZ.” Another big bounce area is far more important: the monthly lows and yearly lows. This is the price range where the wiser bargain hunters and bottom fishers lurk around. They know that low area is solid support and that a downtrending correction isn’t going to last on a strong company. Therefore, lows pose even bigger risk of bounces that actually can reverse the downtrend, especially if the steep descent has been underway for some time. A stock may nearly pierce through a sturdy support level, reach the yearly low and then suddenly make a V-shaped short-term bottom or shift sideways depending upon the strength of the stock and company. These sudden changes of trend catch many short traders unaware and create larger losses than monthly and yearly highs. Sideways patterns also create sturdy support levels where large bounces can occur for the rapidly falling stock. Moving averages for long-term trendlines are another area of strong support where bounce risk is high. How to avoid bounces for selling short: Identify each area where a stock could bounce. This includes the highs and lows of sideways action from prior years. Identify long-term moving average support on weekly charts. Identify monthly and yearly the highs and lows. After you have identified all support areas, determine if this support will be weak, moderate, or strong. Weak support will seldom cause problems for a falling stock and usually a resting day, at best, will form. Moderate support can cause a bounce that can take out tight stop losses and strong support can potentially wipe out a wider stop loss for a bigger loss. It is important to calculate the point gain to the lean side when selling short because bounces can occur before the support is actually touched. And do not be fooled by the falling stock that runs just beyond the support level--often a small run beyond the lowest low is just a ‘gottcha’ sell short entry for bargain hunters. This is the area where you will find the larger reversal candle patterns. Selling short is a faster-paced trading condition. It can be more lucrative with faster profits than the upside at times, but you must have plenty of experience to watch for high-risk areas in the downtrend and a strong mental attitude that allows you to cut losses quickly.
NYSE:DACEducation
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Dead Cat Bounce ScenarioHello, dear subscribers! Today we are going to examine a very interesting chart pattern which can help you to find the hidden danger in the market. The dead cat bounce is the reverse bearish pattern, hence the market should be in the uptrend before it's formation. After the swing high point is reached the sharp price drop usually follows. When we are able to identify the swing low we shoud measure the first bounce height. For this purpose we can use the Fibonacci retracement levels from the swing high to the swing low. For the traditional markets it is typically used the 0.5 Fibonacci level, but on the cryptomarkets the 0.61 level can be used too due to high volatility. If the price was unable to close above this Fibonacci level during the first bounce, there is a high probability of dead cat bounce scenario, when the price continue to fall and the global downtrend changes the uptrend. We use the current Bitcoin price action to illustrate this pattern. There is a big danger now to execute exactly this scenario. Please, be careful! DISCLAMER: Information is provided only for educational purposes. Do your own study before taking any actions or decisions.
Education
by Skyrexio
11
SPY - MAGIC SUPPORT/RESISTANCE level - Market will STOP thereHello traders, after Easter, we share another educational video. Today´s topic is focused on drawing support and resistance levels. Many traders draw LINES and they think the market will bounce exactly from that level. The truth is, you can never do that . Instead, it´s better to understand the S/R level as a zone WHERE you can EXPECT some activity. Nobody cares if the market breaks the trend-line by few points. What really matters is if the breakout was respected or not. The example is explained in the AMEX:SPY market, which is very well known but you can use this logic in any market. Have good trading. FINEIGHT team
AMEX:SPYEducation
by Fineight
4
Dead Cat Bounce - A Spooky PatternIntroduction Its halloween ! And i felt like making a post about spooky stuff related to trading. I wanted to discuss about what is a zombie economy but i clearly don't have the time nor the experience to do that. So instead i'll talk about the dead cat bounce, a pattern commonly found in downtrending (bearish) markets, this pattern is also known as "Bear market rally". We'll describe the pattern, its causes, its upsides and downsides. Unfortunately my knowledge on price patterns is relatively low, if you feel the need to correct me leave a comment. Brace Yourself The Dead Cat Is Coming ! A dead cat bounce is a pattern appearing during downtrends, this pattern is associated to a brief upper movement (recovery) followed by a continuation of the downtrend, therefore the pattern can be classified as a retracement. Terminology The term "dead cat bounce" comes from the saying that "Even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height", physics won't necessarily agree with that but the phrase can be deconstructed in order to explain the pattern described : "Even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height " - Dead : Refer to the downtrend. - Bounce : Describe the motion of the pattern. - Great Height : Emphasis on the prior downtrending movement magnitude. Causes Of A Dead Cat Bounce Causes of certain motions in prices fluctuations are hard to describe, the structures (trends, cycles/seasonality...)/patterns in price can be either : stochastic (the pattern is formed because of a realizations of random fluctuations) or deterministic (the pattern is formed because of certain external causes). A deterministic cause of a dead cat bounce is described by Kolja Johannsen as investors taking excessive risk and unprofitable positions in order to recover an initial loss in a declining market, the accumulations of those investors as well as investors believing in a reversal participate in the creation of this upward movement. Upsides Of Dead Cat Bounces When a security allow short positions, dead cat bounces allow late investors to go with the downtrend from a more interesting point. In stock markets they can allow investors to potentially profit from the bounce, however such strategy require extremely precise timing, one must make sure to sell at the maximum of the retracement. Such methodology make the investor exposed to the continuity of the downtrend, thus making the risk reward extremely uninteresting. Downsides Of Dead Cat Bounces A dead cat bounce like any retracement is a parasitic motion in the main trend, they might make investors believe in a reversal, in a mathematical standpoint those parasitic motions affect technical indicators, this is where robustness is required, robust indicators might be able to ignore the dead cat bounce. The dead cat bounce deform the main trend and therefore can add complexity to a trend model. Above a simple linear trend, we can describe it as a simple line + white noise, such equations are called equations of motions. However describing a dead cat bounce mathematically might require additional complexity. Detecting/Avoiding Dead Cat Bounces Classifying upward movements as either a retracement or reversal is no easy task, however we can still make use of several tools in order to detect or avoid dead cat bounces. The first tool being filters, filtering a dead cat bounce can be made using a low pass filters (filter noise/cyclic components) or notch filters (filter cyclic components). The filter setting must be adjusted in order to be able to filter the pattern. Blackman filter of period 100 Rolling max/min with period 100 (Donchian channels), no highest low have been detected here, witch allow us to remain with the main trend, note that rolling max/min are also low pass filter. Another approach might be made using support and resistances, we can see that both the minimum/maximum of the dead cat bounce are both pullbacks, altho this observation is clearly insignificant and lack logic (like most technical analysis approach) unlike the previously discussed method. Conclusions Altho my experience on patterns is low, i hope i could teach you something new in this post. Dead cat bounces make parts of those disruptive patterns that might make us take a bad position, we have also seen that they can be made from the emotional bias from investors, that is premature re-entering of a declining market, which is never a good idea. Finally we discussed methods to filter/detect such pattern. Like most patterns in technical analysis their detection/interpretation is relatively subjective to the user, the uniformity/complexity of stock market prices make detection of patterns quite complex. But the most important thing to take from this post is that strategies robust to retracements can help the investor make better decisions, going long because of a dead cat bounce is not a enjoyable experience, that cat wasn't so alive in the end...Happy Halloween !
Education
by alexgrover
8
[b]Catching the PIP's with my sonar radar Setup[/b] FX:GBPUSD Description: GBP/USD shows strong support within DeMarker indicator (DeMarker was used to replace RSI and Slow Stoch) MACD and MACz Vwap shows continuation of the bullish uptrend for hourly and daily chart high time-frames Within opening bell wait for Fractals v9 TUX EMA Scalper and CM_PSAR EM Envelope confirmation for the entry positions. Put your S/L within the EMA BB and use MTF EMA and 3EMA as the support and resistance of your positions. Look at the different time-frames to minute, hourly and daily for trends and patterns This is good for intraday/swing trades not scalping short time frames. If you want to scalp look for Fractals v9 TUX EMA Scalper and CM_PSAR EM Envelope confirmation . Good for traders sitting at the desk waiting for the trend confirmation. Very High expected PIPs return when the strategy followed the trend. Good luck traders and happy hunting !!
Education
by razeswag77
Example of a Downtrend Parallel Channel on PFFPFF formed a downtrend parallel channel. A downtrend parallel channel (bearish channel) is a continuation pattern that slopes down and is bound by an upper and lower trend line. The upper downtrend line it is called main line and marks resistance and the lower downtrend line it is called channel line and marks support. For a bearish channel, the main line extends down and at least two bounces highs are required to draw it. To draw a channel line ideally needs two bounces lows, however, some traders draw it using only one bounce low. In a bearish channel the target is to short when prices reach main line resistance and take profit when prices reach channel line support, then, wait for prices to reach resistance again and repeat.
NASDAQ:PFFEducation
by heco08