Master Breakout Trading: The Strategy Every Trader Needs to KnowIn the world of trading, a "breakout" refers to a price movement that occurs when an asset moves beyond a predefined support or resistance level. These pivotal moments often signal a significant shift in market dynamics and can lead to substantial price changes. Breakouts are crucial for traders as they can mark the beginning of a new trend. A breakout above a resistance level may suggest the start of an uptrend, while a breakout below support could indicate a downtrend. Learning to identify and trade breakouts effectively can unlock profitable opportunities and help traders capitalize on shifting market conditions.
What Are Breakouts in Trading?
Breakouts occur when the price of an asset surpasses a well-established support or resistance level, suggesting a potential shift in market direction. A bullish breakout happens when the price breaks above resistance, signaling upward momentum. Conversely, a bearish breakout occurs when the price drops below support, often indicating the continuation of a downtrend.
Breakouts are significant because they often lead to increased trading activity and volatility, offering traders opportunities to enter or exit positions at pivotal moments. These breakouts are often accompanied by increased trading volume, which helps confirm the validity of the price move and suggests that a new trend is forming.
How Breakouts Occur and Their Importance
Breakouts occur when price action surpasses critical price levels—either support or resistance—that have acted as barriers in the past. These levels are often identified through technical analysis and represent key turning points where buyers or sellers have historically entered the market in large numbers.
--Support Levels: A price point where an asset tends to stop falling and may reverse upward. A bearish breakout occurs when the price drops below this level, signaling a continuation of the downtrend.
--Resistance Levels: A price point where an asset typically stops rising and may reverse downward. A bullish breakout occurs when the price surpasses this level, suggesting the potential for further upward movement.
Breakouts are important because they can indicate the start of a new market trend. When price breaks through a support or resistance level, it signals that the market sentiment has shifted, and traders can take advantage of this movement to capture profits. For successful breakout trading, it's essential to confirm these breakouts using volume and other technical indicators to avoid being caught in a false breakout, where price briefly breaks a level but reverses direction shortly after.
Examples of Breakout Scenarios
Breakouts can present profitable trading opportunities in both bullish and bearish markets. Here are two examples:
--Bullish Breakout Example
Take a look at the following EUR/USD chart, where the price breaks above the 1.0200 level after previously rebounding off resistance. Traders would interpret this as a bullish breakout and may look to enter long positions, expecting the pair to sustain its upward momentum. This breakout provides a buying opportunity as market sentiment turns positive and shifts to the upside.
--Bearish Breakout Example
Take a look at the following EUR/USD chart, where the price breaks below the 1.03500 level after previously rebounding off support. Traders would view this as a bearish breakout and may consider entering short positions, anticipating the pair to maintain its downward momentum. This breakout offers a selling opportunity as market sentiment shifts to the downside.
In both examples, breakouts offer traders clear entry points based on the movement beyond established levels, allowing them to profit from the new trend.
👆 Read Also this deep article where we cover everything you need to know about Support-and-Resistance in trading.
The Concept of Breakout Trading
Breakout trading is based on the premise that once price moves beyond significant support or resistance levels, it is likely to continue in that direction for some time. This approach involves recognizing these levels, waiting for the breakout to occur, and entering a trade in the direction of the breakout.
Key elements of breakout trading include:
--Identifying Key Levels: Use technical analysis to locate critical support and resistance levels where price has previously struggled to break through.
--Confirming the Breakout: Ensure the breakout is accompanied by strong volume to confirm its validity.
--Risk Management: Employ Stop Loss orders to protect against false breakouts, where the price briefly breaks the level but then reverses.
--Maximizing Profits: Traders aim to capture as much of the price movement as possible, staying in the trade as long as the breakout trend remains intact.
To identify potential breakouts, traders often use indicators like trendlines, moving averages, and volume analysis. Chart patterns, such as triangles or flags, can also signal a potential breakout. When combined with volume analysis, these tools help confirm that a breakout is likely to lead to a sustained price movement.
Popular Breakout Trading Strategies:
--Trendline Breakout Strategy
One of the most popular strategies involves using trendlines. A trendline is drawn by connecting two or more price points, creating a visual representation of market direction. When the price breaks through the trendline, it signals a potential reversal or continuation of the trend.
Step 1: Draw trendlines by connecting significant highs and lows.
Step 2: Monitor price as it approaches the trendline.
Step 3: Enter a trade when the price closes beyond the trendline, with confirmation from increased volume.
Step 4: Place a Stop Loss order just below/above the breakout level to manage risk.
Support and Resistance Breakout Strategy:
This strategy involves identifying key support and resistance levels on a chart. Once these levels are breached, traders enter the market based on the direction of the breakout.
Step 1: Identify key support and resistance levels from historical price data.
Step 2: Wait for the price to approach these levels.
Step 3: Enter a position after the price breaks through, with confirmation from volume.
Step 4: Use Stop Loss orders to protect against false breakouts.
Volume-Based Breakout Strategy:
Volume is a critical component of successful breakout trading. A significant increase in volume during a breakout indicates strong market interest, making it more likely that the breakout will continue.
Step 1: Monitor volume as the price approaches key levels.
Step 2: Confirm the breakout with a volume spike.
How to Implement a Breakout Trading Strategy
To implement a breakout trading strategy effectively:
--Set Up Your Platform: Ensure your trading platform is equipped with real-time charts like Tradingview, technical indicators, and alerts to identify breakouts as they happen. Customizing your charts with trendlines, support/resistance levels, and volume indicators will help in visualizing breakout points.
--Use Risk Management: Proper risk management is key to avoiding large losses. Place Stop Loss orders just below (for bullish breakouts) or above (for bearish breakouts) the breakout level to limit potential losses from false breakouts.
👆 Read Also this article where we cover everything you need to know about Risk Management in trading, from essential strategies to practical tips for safeguarding your capital.
Common Mistakes in Breakout Trading
Breakout traders often fall into a few common traps:
--Overtrading: Jumping into too many trades or reacting to every price movement can lead to losses. It's crucial to wait for confirmed breakouts before entering trades.
Falling for False Breakouts: A false breakout occurs when price temporarily moves beyond a key level but then reverses. Confirming the breakout with volume or other indicators can help avoid this mistake.
-Ignoring Risk Management: Failing to set proper Stop Losses can lead to significant losses if the market moves against you. Always manage risk by placing Stop Loss orders at appropriate levels.
Tips for Successful Breakout Trading
--Combine Indicators: Use multiple technical indicators, such as moving averages, volume analysis, and trendlines, to confirm breakouts. This increases the reliability of breakout signals.
--Maintain Discipline: Stick to your trading plan and avoid making emotional decisions. Impatience can lead to entering or exiting trades prematurely, undermining your strategy.
--Refine Your Strategy: Continuously review and refine your trading strategies based on market conditions. Markets evolve, and regular analysis helps ensure your breakout strategies remain effective.
👆 Lastly, read this article where we cover everything you need to know about the Trader's Checklist for Successful Trading, providing key steps and insights to help you stay on track and maximize your trading success.
In Conclusion..
Breakout trading offers a powerful way to capitalize on significant price movements in the market. By mastering strategies like trendline, support/resistance, and volume-based breakouts, traders can position themselves to profit from new trends. Effective risk management and discipline are crucial for long-term success. With continuous learning and strategy refinement, breakout trading can become a highly rewarding approach to navigating financial markets.
Breakouts
How to use Williams Alligator Indicator in crypto trading?You have probably heard about Alligator, indicator which is used by top crypto traders. This powerful tool can increase performance of every cryptocurrency trading strategy and help you to make money on the market. Alligator gives us the precise answer if now price is in impulsive or reactive wave. This knowledge is very useful in building your own crypto trading strategies or even in automated trading bot strategies. Even if you use grid bot strategy Alligator can increase your return on investment because it’s vital to set up grid bot in reactive wave and sideways movements. What is the beast Alligator, let’s have a deep dive into this topic today!
What is Alligator?
Alligator is the best indicator for trend detection. It consist of three moving averages which are called jaw, teeth and lips. Moving averages are frequently used in algorithmic trading bots. They can be exponential, smoothed or weighted depending on particular crypto trading algorithm, but we will use smoothed moving averages (SMA).
Jaw (blue line) - 13 period SMA shifted 8 bars is the future. This is the balance lie of the current time frame, for example 1D
Teeth (red line) - 8 period SMA shifted 5 bars in the future. This is balance line of lower degree time frame, for example 4h
Lips (green line) - 5 period SMA shifted 3 bars in the future. This is balance line of two times lower degree time frame, for example 1h
Please, be careful when you use Alligator on different cryptocurrency trading platforms. Check the correct settings and moving average type. On TradingView it’s correct, don’t worry!
Trend detection with Alligator.
The main Alligator’s feature is the detection the trending markets and markets which are about to explode in any side. This powerful tool can enhance your crypto trading algorithm if you use it in the correct way. On the ATOM price chart you can see the example of an Alligator. As you can see it has two conditions: sleeping and hungry.
Sleeping Alligator is when all lines are crossing each other and the price. This period of time can takes up to 80% of time. This is the market cycle stage where you shall avoid any trading and be prepared for the trending market
Hungry Alligator is when after a long period of consolidation price chose the trend direction. It’s an impulsive move. Alligator’s mouth is widely opened and do not crosses the price.
It’s very important to distinguish the trending market because only this type of a market gives you opportunity for the fast and huge profit. Otherwise, in the range bounded market you don’t have enough space for price to make profit for you. Most of stop losses occur while Alligator is sleeping. Another one very useful hint for you. If you use Elliott waves analysis. You don’t need to understand in which wave market is now. You just jump into the impulses and avoid corrections.
How to trade with Alligator
Here is the most interesting part. How to start crypto trading using Alligator? Our basic strategy is to wait when the price will create the first fractal above the Alligator’s mouth and place conditional order to buy one tick above the fractal’s top. We will discuss fractals in details next time. Now you have to understand how to use Alligator.
Another one hint from our experience is to use fractals only when Alligator has been sleeping for a long time, like you see on the BTC chart. After long sleep and fractal breakout Bitcoin showed the greatest bull run in the history.
Let’s notice where we should close trade. Almost at the top! When price started showing weakness we don’t need to be in the market anymore. Using this strategy on 1W time frame you can hold assets during entire bull run and sell then before bear market. Fantastic! Isn’t it?
Conclusion
In this article we discussed how you can implement Alligator indicator in your trading routine. This indicator will help you to avoid boring market when you can only lose money and catch every big move. Moreover you can use even sideways market detection if you use cryptocurrency trading bot which earns money in range bounded market. For sure this in not the only one strategy using Alligator. Next time we enhance our approach with other tools and see in details how Alligator improve their profitability. Moreover, soon we will live stream where practice trading with Alligator. See you next time!
Best regards,
Skyrex Team
Buy the Breakout✅ Or Have a Hard time Buying Dips❌Hello Traders! 👋
Excited to bring you another insightful post on Tradingview, highlighting a smarter approach to trading cryptocurrencies. This time, we're focusing on the effectiveness of 'Buying the Breakout' ✅ over the uncertainty of 'Buying the Dip' ❌.
🔑 Strategic Analysis:
1️⃣ Bitcoin (BTC): We begin with Bitcoin, showcasing how choosing breakout points over dips can provide more reliable and timely entry points.
2️⃣ Matic (MATIC): Next, we look at Matic, illustrating how its breakout points, when combined with simple technical analysis, offers a clear strategy for market entry.
3️⃣ Fantom (FTM): Lastly, we explore Fantom, a prime example of how a classic crypto breakout strategy can outperform dip-buying, leading to more significant gains.
🧠 Trading Psychology:
It's crucial to understand the psychological aspect. Consistently buying dips may lead to missing breakout opportunities, potentially resulting in shorting at the wrong moment... or endlessly like Borat at the end of this post
💡 Smart Profit-Taking:
Remember, taking profits partially is key. Secure your gains and keep some positions open for further potential growth, balancing risk and reward effectively. I personally usually set 4 targets for spot at 25% each. The first 2 get me some profit and the last 25% is for my retirement; so i never touch that 25%, ever.
🚦 Managing Fake Breakouts:
A vital part of trading breakouts is dealing with the possibility of a fake breakout. Here's where your skills truly shine. By having a calculated exit strategy, you can minimize risks even if the breakout turns out to be false. This approach ensures that your trading decisions are not only proactive but also protective of your capital.
This post is crafted to enhance your understanding and application of these strategies, whether you're a veteran trader or new to the game. 📚 It's all about making informed, strategic decisions in the dynamic world of crypto trading.
🌟 When it comes to crypto, it all starts with the fundamentals: selecting assets with solid backing, innovative teams, and a clear, strategic plan. This foundational step ensures that you're investing in cryptocurrencies that not only have potential for technical breakouts but also possess the intrinsic value and growth prospects backed by strong fundamentals.
🔍Join me in this journey as we continue to explore and attempt to conquer the markets. Your thoughts, experiences, and insights are always welcome in the comments section below. Let's keep pushing the boundaries of what we can achieve together in trading! Just remember that Trading should be fun thus we must play with funds we can afford to sacrifice.
❌❌❌Don't be like Borat:
❌❌❌
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR ✅
How to fade breakouts professionally from my 30 years experienceIn this detailed education video i show how i mainly make a living as a protrader. This is from fading breakouts of chart patterns. I show three examples of this in the past week from the nasdaq and talk about confirmation bias. I also show what its like drawing lines and patterns daily, win/ loss ratios as well as some thoughts of where the nasdaq might go in the next few weeks.
What is the difference between a pro-trader and a beginner?
The difference between pro traders and new traders is how they approach trading.
Pros commit to trading. They do not see it as an opportunity, they see trading as a form of work. They are not looking for the best trade every time, instead, pros are looking for many trades because they see loss and gain as a fundamental part of how trading works.
It would not be too absurd to think of pros as survivors. Pros have realized losses and gains over time, injecting capital only to lose some more, yet they have accepted that that is the nature of trading. There are both good and bad trades that range in how profitable or unprofitable they may be.
Pros respect the markets, they are not trying to prove that they are right -they just follow the flow of the market. Lastly, pros understand that a lot of things cost money in the day trading world; however, they are willing to spend it because they like to have the tools that will lead them to success.
New traders differ from pros in plenty of ways. For starters, they are looking for that original piece of validation to continue their day trading ventures. This is why new traders tend to look for only the best trades in the markets they are monitoring. They instinctively want to make money right away and gain some working capital to buffer any future loss.
Furthermore, new traders suffer a lot when they fail because they take it personally and naturally reject their losses. This behavior eventually leads to them quitting altogether which ties into their commitment to trading as a whole. New traders (unlike pro traders) do not like to commit; for them trading is an opportunity to get as much money as possible from their trades. Furthermore, they are looking to minimize their costs by acquiring tips, shortcuts and various other content for free.
As a result, new traders often sprinting to make a quick buck while if they simply took the time to slow down and educate themselves they will make more successful trades in the long run.
Hey traders, let me know what subject do you want to dive in in the next post?
Hunting Breakouts with Bollinger Bands and OBVThanks to zAngus for the idea, here is a simple trading strategy that uses two tools: Bollinger Bands and OBV to find moments when an asset's prices can increase or decrease.
First and foremost, please note that this explanation is simplified and only covers the basics. Each individual can develop their own settings and adjustments according to their own preferences.
Imagine that you are looking at a price chart of an asset. This chart shows how prices have changed over time. Sometimes prices go up and sometimes they go down.
The trading strategy we are going to show you can help you find moments when prices are about to change direction.
- Bollinger Bands are lines that show a zone where prices of an asset are likely to stay.
These lines have two parts: a middle line that shows an average of prices and two other lines that show the zone where prices should be.
The lines widen and narrow based on the volatility of prices.
- OBV (On-Balance Volume) is another tool that measures whether more people are buying or selling an asset.
If more people are buying an asset, OBV increases, and if more people are selling an asset, OBV decreases.
Now, here is how we use these two tools to find moments when an asset's prices can increase or decrease:
1. First, we wait for prices to stabilize for a certain amount of time. This means that prices don't go up or down much during a given period.
2. Next, we look at the Bollinger Bands to see if prices have reached the upper or lower limit. If prices exceed the upper limit, it may mean that prices will increase.
If prices fall below the lower limit, it may mean that prices will decrease.
3. To confirm what we have seen in the Bollinger Bands, we look at the OBV.
If OBV increases or decreases at the same time as prices exceed the upper or lower limit of the Bollinger Bands, it means that more people are buying or selling the asset, and this reinforces our idea that prices will increase or decrease.
4. We enter the market by buying or selling the asset based on whether we think prices will increase or decrease.
5. We exit the market when prices reach the opposite upper or lower limit of the Bollinger Bands or an important resistance zone.
This is a simple strategy, but it can help find moments when an asset's prices can increase or decrease.
Remember that you must always use good risk management to avoid losing too much money if the market doesn't follow your forecast.
Please note that this Bollinger Bands and OBV breakout trading strategy involves risk and is intended for educational purposes only. Any investments made using this strategy are done at your own risk, and you should always do your own research and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions.
Learn False Breakout in Trading | Technical Analysis Basics
⭕️False-breakouts are exactly what they sound like: a breakout that failed to continue beyond a level, resulting in a ‘false’ breakout of that level. False breakout patterns are one of the most important price action trading patterns to learn, because a false-break is often a very strong clue that price might be changing direction or that a trend might be resuming soon.
⭕️A false-break of a level can be thought of as a ‘deception’ by the market, because it looks like price will breakout but then it quickly reverses, deceiving all those who took the ‘bait’ of the breakout. It’s often the case that amateurs will enter what looks like an ‘obvious’ breakout and then the professional’s will push the market back the other way
⭕️A false breakout is essentially a ‘contrarian’ move in the market that ‘flushes’ out those traders who may have entered on emotion, rather than logic and forward thinking.
⭕️Generally speaking, a false-breakout happens because amateur traders or those with ‘weak hands’ in the market will tend to enter the market only when it ‘feels safe’ to do so. This means, they tend to enter when a market is already quite extended in one direction (and it’s about ready to retrace) or they try to ‘predict’ a breakout from a key support or resistance level too early. Professional traders watch for these missteps by the amateurs, and the end result is a very good entry for them with a tight stop loss and huge risk reward potential.
⭕️It takes discipline and a bit of ‘gut feel’ to know when a false-break is likely to occur, and you can never really know ‘for sure’ until after one has formed. The important thing, is to know what they look like and how to trade them.
Like, comment and subscribe to boost your trading!
Hey traders, let me know what subject do you want to dive in in the next post?
💥 3 Types of BreakoutIn trading, the term "breakout" refers to a price movement that "breaks" past a certain level or range. It's important to note that breakouts can be false, meaning the price could reverse its movement after the breakout. Hence, traders often use confirmation techniques to confirm the validity of a breakout.
A breakout is a potential trading opportunity that occurs when an asset's price moves above a resistance level or moves below a support level on increasing volume. The first step in trading breakouts is to identify current price trend patterns along with support and resistance levels in order to plan possible entry and exit points. Once you've acted on a breakout strategy, know when to cut your losses and re-assess the situation if the breakout sputters. As with any technical trading strategy, don't let emotions get the better of you. Stick with your plan and know when to get in and get out.
📈3 Key things to know about Breakouts📉
📍A breakout in the stock market refers to a situation where the price of a security moves beyond a pre-defined support or resistance level, accompanied by an increase in trading volume. Traders often take advantage of breakouts by entering a long position when the price surpasses resistance or a short position when it falls below support. This movement beyond a price barrier often leads to increased volatility and a trend in the direction of the breakout.
📍Breakouts are highly valued as a trading strategy because they can signal the beginning of heightened volatility, substantial price movements, and major trends. This phenomenon can occur in various market conditions and is particularly noticeable in the case of channel breakouts and price pattern breakouts, such as triangles, flags, or head and shoulders patterns. As volatility contracts during these periods, it typically expands once the prices move beyond the established range.
📍Breakout trading can be applied to various trading styles and timeframes, including intraday, daily, or weekly charts, making it a versatile strategy for day trading, swing trading, or any other approach.
🔹 Trend Line Breakout: This occurs when the price breaks past a trend line that has been connecting a series of lows or highs.
🔹 Support and Resistance Breakout: This occurs when the price breaks past a significant level of support or resistance.
🔹 Flag and Pennant Breakout: This occurs when the price breaks past a flag or pennant pattern, which is a short-term consolidation pattern.
🔹 Rectangle Breakout: This occurs when the price breaks past a rectangular price pattern, which is a pattern of price congestion.
🔹 Volume Breakout: This occurs when the volume of trades surpasses a significant level, indicating a potential change in trend.
It's important to note that breakouts can be false, meaning the price could reverse its movement after the breakout. Hence, traders often use confirmation techniques to confirm the validity of a breakout.
👤 @AlgoBuddy
📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators
❤️ If you appreciate our work, please like, comment and follow ❤️
Consolidation Breakout: Impulse and Continuation Consolidations are range bound.
The rules for a breakout (impulse) is to retrace it to confirm the exit, and then strike the low signaling the continuation...the beginning of a trend.
Notice the red arrow.
The impulse exited a range of a trending zone, but the retrace failed and there wasn't a continuation.
That is why to wait to strike bullish reversal....
Most Misguided PatternsHello Traders!
Welcome back to another trade with Analyst Aadil1000x.
Today I am posting some education posts which I found necessary to post and share with the public.
Have you ever wondered if you figured out a pattern perfectly and try to trade it and you lost and then you wait for the same pattern to reappear and try to trade that pattern in a more perfect manner and you still lose? The reason is you have been taught wrong. Nearly 100% of the patterns that are roaming on the internet are wrong and it will lead to a loss.
I have posted some patterns to make money easily. Trading is a game of probability and if you trade my way then the win probability will be higher than 70% and if you follow the traditional way then I am sure your probability will not be more than 30%.
Don't forget to hit the like button and follow to stay connected
❌ False Breakout PatternsA breakout that failed to proceed past a level, leading to a "false" breakout of that level, is referred to as a "false breakout."
One of the most essential price action trading patterns to learn is the false double bottom and double top patterns,
as a false-break is frequently a very strong indicator that price may be changing direction or that a trend may soon resume.
False breakouts occur in all market scenarios, including trending, consolidating, and counter-trending.
Trading Tips To Respect:
✅False breakouts can happen in markets that are trending, range-bound, or going against the trend.
Watch for them in all market conditions since they frequently provide insightful hints about the direction the market will take.
✅Trading against a trend can be challenging, but one of the "best" approaches is to watch for a clear false breakout signal
from a significant support or resistance level, as in the last example above.
✅False breakouts provide us with a "window" into the "fight" between expert and amateur traders, allowing us to engage in trading alongside them.
Trading will appear to you in a different light if you can learn to recognize and trade false breakout patterns.
👤 @AlgoBuddy
📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators
❤️ If you appreciate our work , Please like, comment and follow ❤️
⭕️WHAT IS A FALSE BREAKOUT❓
⭕️False-breakouts are exactly what they sound like: a breakout that failed to continue beyond a level, resulting in a ‘false’ breakout of that level. False breakout patterns are one of the most important price action trading patterns to learn, because a false-break is often a very strong clue that price might be changing direction or that a trend might be resuming soon.
⭕️A false-break of a level can be thought of as a ‘deception’ by the market, because it looks like price will breakout but then it quickly reverses, deceiving all those who took the ‘bait’ of the breakout. It’s often the case that amateurs will enter what looks like an ‘obvious’ breakout and then the professional’s will push the market back the other way
⭕️A false breakout is essentially a ‘contrarian’ move in the market that ‘flushes’ out those traders who may have entered on emotion, rather than logic and forward thinking.
⭕️Generally speaking, a false-breakout happens because amateur traders or those with ‘weak hands’ in the market will tend to enter the market only when it ‘feels safe’ to do so. This means, they tend to enter when a market is already quite extended in one direction (and it’s about ready to retrace) or they try to ‘predict’ a breakout from a key support or resistance level too early. Professional traders watch for these missteps by the amateurs, and the end result is a very good entry for them with a tight stop loss and huge risk reward potential.
⭕️It takes discipline and a bit of ‘gut feel’ to know when a false-break is likely to occur, and you can never really know ‘for sure’ until after one has formed. The important thing, is to know what they look like and how to trade them.
🛑Which we will discuss in the next article, If you like this one❗️
Dear followers, let me know, what topic interests you for new educational posts?
How to differentiate a fake-out from an actual break-outHappy Friday, sorcerers. Welcome on another educational post by Investroy!
The trading and investing industry is a difficult one to succeed in as it has various complex details that you need to dig into both from technical and psychological perspectives. Predicting the price movement and understanding the logic behind it may be challenging at first. But as time passes and you gain experience, you understand the science behind price action and make more logical decisions.
Today, we will talk about a rather puzzling issue faced by many beginning and experienced traders: the theme of differentiating fake price movements from real ones. Although, it is not always possible to separate the two to the full extent, it is feasible to build a plan around it and stick to it on a consistent basis.
A fake-out is a failed attempt of the price to break above/below a key zone. Very often, it is associated with liquidity grabs and Stop Loss hunts. To demonstrate, looking at the illustration pictured on the chart, you can see how the price attempts to continue its bullish moves, but fakes out from the sideways-moving range and re-enters the borders of it instead.
On the contrary, a breakout happens when price successfully penetrates a key level and continues its impulsive moves in the same direction
Now, the question is: how to distinguish a real breakout from a fake one?
Firstly, it has to be kept in mind that what goes up, must come down. In trading terms, after an impulsive move, a correctional one should come; after a breakout, a re-test should happen before continuing impulses. In order to identify whether a breakout is a fake or a real one, we should always look for a re-test of the penetrated zone after a break is completed. However, you have to keep in mind that it is not a 100% fact that a re-test will happen every time. Sometimes, breakouts will be so impulsive that price will not retrace back to re-test a penetrated zone.
Nothing is 100% accurate in trading. Not every breakout will lead to a re-test before impulsive continuations. Not every fake breakout will seem like a fake-out at first. However, waiting for a re-test of a broken zone is a good way to evade fake breakouts and capture high risk-to-reward trades and opportunities.
To conclude, if you want to make sure you don’t get faked out and liquidated, always wait for a re-test of a penetrated level before forming biases and executing positions.
How to trade Breakout/Breakdown from consolidation pattern?1) What is a consolidation?
Consolidation means when the price of a stock or security moves sideways within a range.
In this pattern the price makes the same highs and/or same lows. The highs form a resistance level, and lows form a support level. The longer the consolidation is, the stronger the breakout/breakdown will be.
When the price is moving within the range you can not really predict if it will go up or down, you always have to wait for the breakout/down to enter the trade. Once the channel is broken it usually leads to a stronger up/downtrend.
Breakout
We are talking about Breakout pattern when the price that has been moving within the range of the consolidation pattern breaks above the previous resistance line. At this momentum,
when we have a confirmation candle, there is a high probability that it can be a start of a new uptrend, and we can enter the trade.
Breakdown
In case of a Breakdown, the price is moving downwards, and not only hit but breaks out of the support level. We need a confirmation candle to ensure that there is a high probability that bearish momentum will trigger the start of a new downtrend and it is a good time to enter short.
2) What are the valid consolidation patterns?
Consolidation pattern does not mean in every case that the price must make the same highs and the same lows at the same time. For a Breakout pattern from the consolidation we want to see a strong, flat top resistance line that is tested three times or more. The price can either make the same lows or higher lows.
On the other hand, when we are talking about a Breakdown from the consolidation, we are always looking for a strong support line that is tested at least three times before. In this case,
the consolidation pattern can be either making same highs or lower highs.
3) How to identify a Breakout/Breakdown momentum and which indicators to use?
We only want to enter the trade on a breakout/breakdown with a high probability of succeeding and for that we always want to see a confirmation candle after the price breaks above or below the range to avoid false breakouts. For a Breakout, the candle must be bullish and open and close above the resistance level and it must be near the 20EMA.
In case of a Breakdown the bearish candle body must open and close below the support line and the breakout candle must be near or touching the 20EMA.
Indicators (examples)
Force Index (13) measures the strength of the volume. When the Force Index is above the zero line, that tells you that the market is bullish. If the price goes under the line, the price is bearish. So, when we want to go long, make sure that the Force Index is above the signal line and it’s rising. When we want to sell, then the Force Index should be under the signal line and falling.
or
MACD (12,26,9) When the MACD line is above the signal line, it means that the momentum is bullish (good if you want to go long) if it goes under the signal line, means the market is bearish (great time to enter short).
Let's Learn Ichimoku Breakouts!My buddy Aimer asked me how to trade breakouts on futures yesterday. I answered with much more... including the theory of Ichimoku Cloud breakouts, how they have been used on Bitcoin Daily charts profitably for years, and how to incorporate my Spike Signal into confirming winning breakout trades (while avoiding losers). I wanted to share this educational content so that others can benefit!
HOW-TO: Cosmic Channel #1📡 INDICATOR
Cosmic Channel
👩🏫 HOW-TO CONTENT
This how-to covers the price breaking through all the support or resistance channels. This is a likely signal that the price is about to begin a volatile move in that direction.
✅ POINTS
price breaking through all resistance channels (☝️) signals that a volatile bullish trend is about to begin
price breaking through all support channels (👇) signals that a volatile bearish trend is about to begin
🔔 USEFUL ALERTS
Resistance Channel Break ↑
Support Channel Break ↓
Principles to Trade Cup & Handle PatternHi Friends,
We are glad to share this material on "CUP & HANDLE PATTERN".
William O'Neil's Cup with Handle is a bullish continuation pattern that marks a consolidation period followed by a breakout. There are two parts to the pattern: the cup and the handle. The cup forms after an advance and looks like a bowl or rounding bottom. As the cup is completed, a trading range develops on the right-hand side and the handle is formed. A subsequent breakout from the handle's trading range signals a continuation of the prior advance.
The theory behind the cup and handle pattern is that if the price tried to drop but then rebounded, there must be strong buying momentum behind the asset to continue moving higher. This could attract traders to open a position at the price rise, or at least avoid opening a short position against it.
How this Pattern works?
1. The cup should resemble a bowl or rounding bottom. The perfect pattern would have equal highs on both sides of the cup, but this is not always the case.
2. After the high forms on the right side of the cup, there is a pullback that forms the handle. The handle is the consolidation before breakout and can retrace up to 1/3 of the cup's advance, but usually not more.
3. The cup can be spread out from 1 to 6 months, occasionally longer. Ideally, the handle will form and complete over 1-4 weeks.
4. The buy point occurs when the stock breaks out or moves upward through the old point of resistance (right side of the cup).
5. The price target following the breakout can be estimated by measuring the distance from the right top of the cup to the bottom of the cup and adding that number to the buy point. This should be used only as a guideline.
However, we have also seen the failure of Cup & Handle Pattern in the real trades. For example, EURUSD in June 2020 (15 mins Time Frame) showed exactly the opposite story; expectations were for higher side but it could not give a breakout and the price fall drastically.
Inverted Cup & Handle Pattern:
The reverse cup and handle pattern is an upside-down cup followed by a handle and a breakout to the downside. It represents a bearish continuation pattern. The pattern is formed by a drop, a rally, then another drop back to where the rally started. A handle forms, which should be less than a third the size of the cup.
Important Point!
Some traders make the mistake of assuming that once a U-shape forms, the price will drop to form a handle. It may not, so one should ideally avoid trading the pattern until it has fully formed, in order to confirm the trend.
If You Like this idea or have any suggestion, please do comment.
Thank you !
supports and resistances and how they convert ✔First of all lets start with the brief technical explanation and after that go through the analyse DOGE ✔
1 support( an imaginary line, level or area )
👍one of the most simplest technical tool that use for indicating the proper point for buyers to enter or purchase one stock
for using support line
we need more than tow price points that an asset doesn't fall below more than those points and using line to connect them
2 resistance ( an imaginary line, level or area )
👍unlike support line investors use it to figure out the place for exit or selling one stock
and for using resistance
exactly like support line we need more than tow price points and one line to connect them but we should pay attention to this point that asset doesn't ascend above those points
⏲how support and resistance line convert to each other ⏲
👍support and resistance can easily change to each others in simple word when acceptable penetration of the price happen in one line for next price hit (be touched by the price ) this line act as an opposite function
for example we have strong support area if the price stand below this line and stay away for awhile for next time when the price become close to this area it will works as a resistance for the price
3 breakout
👍usually indicates new trend
when the acceptable penetration happens by the price to one support or resistance in indirect way
for example we have strong support line and the price start to stands below the line and continue its movement here we have breakout
you can use horizontal line at the left corner of your charts at trading view for indicating your supports and resistances.
or using other tools like Rectangle or Ellipse and indicate support or resistance zone instead of simple line.
🚀🚀analyse of idea🚀🚀
here we have important daily trend line and strong support area 💣
so
If the price breaks this trend line and price stay above this line we expect gain for the price
and
our noticeable resistance line and our next target are located on the chart.
This is not financial advice, always do your own research.
🐳MAD WHALE🐋
FALSE BREAKOUTS | SPOT/AVOID/TRADE THEM LIKE PRO📈📉
FALSE BREAKOUTS | SPOT/AVOID/TRADE THEM LIKE PRO📈📉
How often have you opened a key level breakout trade, and then the price turned against you? False breakout happens quite often and it is a problem for many traders who buy at highs and sell at lows.
❗️Breakout trading is a fairly popular and viable trading strategy. However, some breakouts often turn out to be false. This can be quite frustrating, not to mention that it can often lead to a losing trade.
However, in many cases, an experienced trader can analyze the market situation and react to it accordingly. False breakouts can make a profit if you know how to trade them correctly.
⚠️A false breakdown is a situation when the price violates an obvious level, but then suddenly changes direction. When the initial breakout of the level occurs, many traders open a trade in the direction of the breakdown. These traders are trapped when the price reverses, which triggers a series of stop losses. New traders are also entering the market, and this puts additional pressure on the price. This often turns the price into a new trend, the opposite of the initial breakout.
A breakout that turns out to be false is a sign of strength in a downtrend or weakness in an uptrend.
As you can see, a false breakout can easily cause significant losses for any trader.
Some traders develop their entire strategy around trading false breakouts, as this can be a very powerful trading approach. Some of the best trades happen when market players fall into a trap and their stops start to work.
✅How to find patterns of false breakouts?
🟢If you do not learn how to correctly identify false breakouts, you will not be able to trade them profitably. For example, there will be situations when the price returns to the breakout point, and only then continues its movement.
🟢One of the ways to detect false breakouts is to monitor the volume. Real breakouts are usually accompanied by strong indications of trading volume at the time of the breakout. When this volume is absent, there is a higher probability that the breakout will not happen.
🟢Thus, if the trading volume is low or it decreases during the breakout, a false breakout is likely to occur. In contrast, if the volume is large or it increases, a real breakdown is likely.
🟢It is also useful to monitor not only the trading volume but also the price movement on the lower timeframe. In many cases, you will see that the price makes a very sharp pullback on the lower timeframe, which is not visible on the higher timeframe.
✅False Breakout Trap
🔴After all, many trading textbooks say that a breakout can be considered confirmed when a candle closes above the resistance level. However, the price moves in your direction for a while and then turns 180 degrees. As a result, you have a stop loss triggered.
🔴The false breakout trap includes several candlesticks, usually 1-4, that go beyond the key support or resistance level. Such breakouts occur after a strong movement, as the market has reached an important level, but the price momentum still retains its strength.
Have you ever been trapped by a false breakout?
Why breakout never worksHello traders!
This is another educational post just to break your false perspective which will benefit you and it will also help you not to fall into the trap of uneducated traders.
I have seen traders who just make a trendline line and put a bullish arrow and say that after the breakout price will go to heaven but in reality breakouts never works and they are very far from reality.
If you buy a breakout blindly then there is only 1 out of 6 chance that you are correct. In other words, you will keep losing again and again with that strategy.
So why breakout never works?
The patterns that we see are illusions, they are not real but the market does react to the trendlines and patterns.
What I mean by the reaction is that after a breakout market forms different kinds of reactive patterns. These patterns help the market to move further up or they push the market back in the trendline and most of the time these pattern pushes the market back in the trend.
If you can figure out what pattern is formed after the breakout then you can predict easily that the breakout will work or it will fail.
Do your research and ask the questions.
Here is the tip: Selling on bullish breakouts is more effective than buying on bullish breakouts.
How to identify a successful Breakout?Underlying logic:
1. The price gets rejected from a level repeatedly and forms a major resistance.
2. There is an initial test of supply which absorbs some pending orders
3. The price finds a bottom and some sort of accumulation happens.
4. After the accumulation, the price tries to move back up to retest the resistance level.
5. A bull trap is confirmed when the price pierces through the resistance level but there is no follow-up move.
6. But after every test of the supply, it becomes weaker and weaker due to absorption of pending orders(already discussed in older posts)
7. The price finds a bottom again and then another phase of accumulation starts
8. Finally, the price moves up and tries to breakout above the resistance. This time the price manages to break out since the residual supply gets absorbed and it gives a retest.
9. If the breakout is successful, it will be followed by a bullish move and the volume will expand.
10. The retailers buy after the breakout while the institutions buy during the accumulation phase.
Exhibit 1: Clear breakout and clear retest
Exhibit 2: Clear breakout with NO retest of a horizontal level
Exhibit 3: Breakout with consolidation at the resistance level
Sometimes, the price may start consolidating at the resistance level. This is a positive sign because the price is absorbing all the residual supply and is trying to find the equilibrium.
There can be many more different variations, but the underlying concepts remain the same. You can read and revise this post until you master the concepts. I hope you find this post useful.
Disclaimer: This is NOT investment advice. This post is meant for learning purposes only. Invest your capital at your own risk.
Happy learning. Cheers!
@johntradingwick
A-pivot breakouts in EURUSDA-pivots (called A-UP and A-DOWN) are calculated using the opening range (OR - that is where price "belongs") often referred as Initial Balance ( IB ), in our case - monthly opening range. You can find the formula in Fisher´s book.
Red lines are opening range (the range of first 2 or 3 trading days in the beginning of month). Then one multiplies a specified distance (certain number of ticks above below OR) from opening range to get A-pivot level. I am not sure about the exact formula but ACD indicators do it automatically.
Opening range ACD strategy is usually applied to day trading but it is interesting to see how EURUSD reacts when those A-pivots are broken on monthly.
In relatively smooth downtrends price nearly always forms this peculiar bow-loop pattern, returning back to where it broke. Sometimes such bows or loops are formed twice a month.
This is not observed in strong trending market (you can flip back) but still even then price uses those levels as support - resistance.
The fact that price keeps returning back to monthly A-pivot means there is no strong trend yet.
GOOD LUCK!
Eur/Cad breakout educationalTrading breakouts is not only fun and exiting(whether or not it goes your way) but its a great test to keep yourself engaged and focused on the market, as well as the task at hand which is seeking out retests and confirmations for your next breakout play. In this example we can see this pair with gained strength, since picking up momentum from its move up from the 50% region of the range that it was in and has now crossed above range high. Looks great except for the fact that price has yet to react with the resistance level we had broke on the way up. Without proof or confirmation that the level will turn support it would be reckless to place a trade
Confirmation is KEY If you fail to plan you plan to fail, never trade without a map to success.
Hope this helps somebody out there and please feed back is greatly encouraged.