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Bubbles

Lessons about ultimate ignorance, survivor bias, exp. growthHello, I wanted to write about these 3 subjects, I have alot on my mind but I'll try keeping it compact and clean. 1- Ultimate Ignorance * People are persuaded the stock market will always go up. Why? They expect to all become rich with absolutely no effort like magical money will just appear in their pockets. Even a woldwide index isn't completely safe, global markets have dropped and stagnated for more than 100 years in the past and stock markets are only 500 years old. Concerning individual countries there has never been one that lasted forever... So it's pretty irrational as Einstein would say to expect a different outcome this time. And money doesn't just magically grow on trees forever what are those people thinking... They are going to learn a harsh lesson. * Certain people are completely stupid and out of this world. I have no word. The type of person crying because Bernie is not the dem frontrunner. One of those said, and it seemed it wasn't a troll, that "rich" bloomberg was so rich he could give every single american citizen $1 million which would change the life of most americans. And when people tried explaining how stupid that claim was, that person defended it "bla bla bla the point is he could give 1 million to every one and he wouldn't notice". The kind of people that watch clown news network every day and believe what they say. Even in congress alot fail basic maths taught to 6 yos. And of course they think infinite money can be printed and make every one rich. And if need money for free stuff always simple solution "just tax the rich". All of their idiotic ideas are traumatising. And on top of that it has been tried and failed. I lost all hope for the human race... Might be living in noisy stressful big towns making people lose their minds. We need to end wageslavery and have an exodus back to rural areas asap, but this is an idea for another post. * 2 years ago Paul Singer (the Argentina Vulture Capitalist managing a few dozen billions in a fund) had this to say about Bitcoin in a letter sent to investors, unlike Warren Buffet he does not try to look nice and friendly not hurt anyone feelings and just says it how it is: “This is not just a bubble. It is not just a fraud. It is perhaps the outer limit, the ultimate expression, of the ability of humans to seize upon ether and hope to ride it to the stars... But is it not glorious that when the equivalent of nothing attracts priests and parishioners who run up the price, the very willingness of the mob to buy it at higher and higher prices is seen as validation of the thing, rather than an indication of the limitless ignorance of swaths of the human race?” I completely agree. And like this person, I just say it how it is no point sugar coating it, Warren does it and crypto victims are still hating the guy so what is the point? He admitted there was genius in Bitcoin, when he called it a "Brilliant scam". I completely agree. Crypto HAS to be the ultimate never seen before super scam, the biggest ponzi in history. They can't ever have been any scam this big. Social security and debt are different so I'd count them separately. Bitcoin is one of the biggest mass delusion the dumbest the peak of human ignorance. "The outer limit" yes, this must be it, how can it possibly get dumber? 2- Survivor bias How ignorant are you? Here is a little test, got this from a recent video on youtube about prediction: This is an image extracted from the damaged planes the air force has in their hangar (I think it was the RAF but it doesn't matter): Command wants to armor the plane. Where should they place the armor? (can't full armor the plane makes it heavy and costs money & a nation cannot print or tax itself into wealth) The red areas represent where the planes took bullets on average. Well what does this tell us? It tells us that the planes in the hangars have this composite. In other words, the planes that made it home. I know alot of people ("just tax the rich make everything free") that would instantly say "armor the red area" but it is so wrong. This is why natural selection favors the smartest, and why wars are won by smarter faster thinking commands (cough cough france germany ww2). The reason why their planes had very little impacts in the mid fuselage engines and cockpit is really obvious... Those ones did not make it home. So all they get back are the survivors... That didn't get hit in the priority areas. Understanding survivor bias is important. In this video it was a class lesson and about half the students gave the wrong answer. Of the other half I am willing to bet they were mostly just afraid to look stupid or sleeping. 3- Exponential Growth The graph is a classic. Some examples: - Bacteria Colonies: the stagnate when food rarefies then just die of hunger/eat each other - Virusses (Corona...) - Internet Virusses - Ponzi Schemes (you know one...) - Product Life Cycle (the radio was introduced - Lag Phase, grew till every one had one, stagnated at 90% adoption or so, and has been dying with tv the internet smartphones) - Bubbles ("back to normal" is stagnation) - And more What is great about maths is how you learn that everything is correlated and works the same. And add finance which also does that, your brain goes boom. By the way, in Asia the coronavirus so many nuts are so afraid of, is in the decline phase. In Europe and NA I think we are at stagnation phase but there has been a spike in case, probably from all the people testing for it. What a joke. Idiocy to the limit "outer limit". Peak ignorance. People are fighting for toilet paper. I don't even understand. Some numbers. Worldwide cases of CoronaHoax: 150,000. Probably a bit more with the infected people that don't even notice it LOL! H1N1 2009 (swine flu) cases: 700,000,000 to 1,500,000,000. Half a million deaths. There was like easilly 1 billion cases of H1N1. It is still good that government try to limit the spread of the virus, to protect their elders. But all these ignoramus panicking, and whining Trump didn't do enough (Obama did nothing for 1 billion infected H1N1...). Oh and by the way an analysis was done on 1 billion infected H1N1... It was a smaller deal than the common flu THAT HAPPENS EVERY YEAR. The pathetic little common cold known as Covid-19 (it is a common cold) is on the decline already :) Mass hysteria over this... so this is it... Clown world. The exponential spread of idiocy is at max now right? Ah right we keep helping them out rather than let natural selection do its job so the decline won't ever happen. "You have to be a contrarian to make money". Yup. When the herd panics "CO2" (makes so much sense) "CoronaPoop" (sad) or gets all excited "Bitcoin moon soon" (reptilian brains) you know it is time to consider thinking the opposite. Interesting how everyone that makes money consistantly, all the big time billionaire financeers, all think the same. 90% are going to have this mob mentality to varying degrees. SHEEP. Illogical irrational ignorant sheep. Understand how the reptilian herd behaves, profit from it, rince and repeat. No one ever made money being a sheep (ok there were a few but they got lucky). Always stay rational. This gets repeated so often via "do not be emotional", but those that repeat this number 1 tip do not always understand it and think it means you should avoid going completely berserk (clearly they don't trade and just repeat something they read), it means BE RATIONAL (as opposed to emotional). And this is the 1 exception, the 1 free meal. In this case there is a very simple way (well maybe not for everyone, but simple on paper) to make alot of money. By simply being rational you already beat 90% of the competition. It is magical.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
9
10 of the dumbest irrational beliefsEvery site book or video introducing what trading is says the same: The number 1 threat is being emotional. I agree, but I would be more clear and call it being irrational, or better, having a reptilian brain. "Being emotional" sounds like someone getting all hysterical, that's not how traders fail, they fail because they got caught up in the hype, get scared of violent moves and remove their orders (to then see they missed a winner but since they don't log their trades they actually never notice the pattern), get complacent, fail to see the world as it is, think the dot com bubble will never pop because of "virtuallity means there can be infinite profitability" (makes 0 sense, comptletely irrational), et cetera. In this idea, I will present some of the best irrational ideas (and a few of the funniest), that some people somehow believe in. Let's learn what NOT TO DO. Good thing I don't want to start a hedge fund or work as an analyst or anything, so I don't have to pretend I respect these people that fall for clown baits. 1- The warming is bigger than you think! According to journalists that claim 97% of scientists agree with them: Russia is warming 2.5 faster than everywhere else news.yahoo.com China is warming faster than everywhere else www.ecns.cn According to the very serious very official IPCC, Europe has been warming faster than the global average www.theguardian.com Europe: Ireland is warming twice as fast as everywhere else www.irishtimes.com Europe: Britain has been warming 50% faster as everywhere else www.telegraph.co.uk Europe: Finland is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet www.zmescience.com Europe: Sweden temperature rising more than twice as fast as the global average www.thelocal.se West Africa is warming faster (76%) than the rest of the world (West Africa is Mauritania Mali Niger and all the countries under those in the "bulge" of west africa) www.ghanabusinessnews.com South Africa is warming faster than the rest of the world www.traveller24.com The arab world (MENA) is warming faster than the rest of the world (summers to warm twice as fast) www.economist.com www.arabstates.undp.org Mediterranean is warming up faster than the rest of the planet english.elpais.com Asia vast landmass warming faster than everywhere else and end of the world (famine droughts etc) www.tasnimnews.com Canada warming twice as fast as everywhere else www.theguardian.com Arctic is warming at astonoshing rate (other articles say twice as fast) www.npr.org Mountains communities suffer as mountains warm... you guessed it, twice as fast as everywhere else psmag.com USA are warming faster than the rest of the world www.theguardian.com The antartic is warming faster than everywhere else (10 times!) www.nasa.gov www.coolantarctica.com Australia warming twice as fast as everywhere else www.ft.com Kuwait: Alarm as Gulf waters warm three times faster than average Removed article BONUS: Even Mars is warming 4 times as fast as anywhere else on earth. Must be manmade ;) www.sott.net Ok to be fair, it could be that the equator and the 2 big oceans are warming more slowly, and every where other than that is warming faster. But they are launching the alarmism on oceans too, and always saying how "equatorial regions (which are all poor) will be hit the worse" Pacific ocean warming 15 times more than before eu.usatoday.com Ocean warming accelerating faster than thought (really? faster than thought? when all the models were way overestimating the warming?) www.nytimes.com Ocean water off west coast acidifying at twice the rate of global average www.oregonlive.com There are no articles, not a single one, on a location where "warming slower than everywhere else". Since warming is to blame directly for everything, and countries where warming is bigger will be touched more, how come they always say that countries where warming is smallest (around the equator) will be impacted most and it will create waves of millions of climate migrants from central america & africa??? Logic??? It's worse in developped countries therefore consequances will be worse in developped countries, but also consequences will be worse in developping nations which will create climate refugees. Every where the impact is worse than everywhere else. All the focus is on creating alarmism out of thin air. In any set of data, some samples will be above average, other ones are below average. Simple statistics. All speculators should know this. Rating hungry media simply pick the extremes in the sample to create alarmism, and people fall for that. It is completely irrational. Unless the variance was completely huge, which it is not, a 1-sigma variation is nothing special. They did not point to anything out of the ordinary, nothing was discovered or created. I could pick literally anything and go "xyz stocks prices fall twice as fast as the entire stock market" to scare people and really dumb people are under the impression that everything is falling fast which is a whole other special kind of stupid. "warming faster than average" "acidifying faster than average" "today I pooped twice as much as usual". Basic stats there are always outliers... 2- The coronavirus is the greatest threat of our generation and we will all lose a loved one It killed what? Like 2500 people in 2 months? And spring is 1 month away. "Coronavirus cases spike in Iran, country most hit after china" ==> Wow a whooping 8 deaths. I am scared. Iran pop is around 80 millions if I recall correctly. www.cnbc.com The flu ==> Up to 650,000 respiratory deaths per year. Ebola ==> Who knows how many millions since its discovery. Heart disease cause by eating trash in huge quantities, smoking ==> hundreds of millions of deaths. No one cares, people keep smoking and eating 4 kg poop a day. This is how the Corona Virusses work since their discovery in the 60s. And this has lasted for 60 years - holding head in hand & blushing. 3- There is a global conspiracy to hide from us that the earth is flat Ok, why? And... how is EVERYONE on board with this? Also, why? What about the proof? The logic? The more proof? Flat earthers... One died yesterday in his homemade steam spaceship to prove earth was flat (I kid you not). They ask you for proof if "what you say is true" and add a little "aha!". Then you come up with proof. Then they disregard the proof "bah you made it up". Nothing can convince them. They think the world is surrounded by antartica which holds water in. Gravity doesn't exist to them. They have eyes. Sometimes telescopes. They can see other planets. They can see every visible object that is not earth is nice and round. Yet, earth is not??? They come up with the most idiotic explanations for tall buildings disappearing under the curvature as you move away from them, or how the sun circling earth can possibly work (why is half of earth dark for half the day while the other half is lit to put it simple). If there was a market for the shape of earth, they would keep betting on "flat" and getting tore apart by the trend continuously going towards "globe". 4- Internet/Crypto "infinite profitability" You might have missed this, but during the dot com bubble, BAD speculators were explaining to every one how because the internet is not physical and all tech and everything, "infinite profitability" was possible, which means the stock market would literally never stop going up. I did not make this up. There are recordings. You can check for yourself. I think we can hear this exceptional argument in the 2001 documentary "What Happened". During the dot com bubble, companies (especially IPOs) that had absolutely no business model no profit no nothing were getting so much money for nothing. They bought the most expensive furniture, that was not even used. It was ridiculous. Anyone could come up with their "start up" and a 30 seconds speach and get huge funding. Investors didn't care about what commanies were doing. "Internet stuff? Take my money!" Stanley Druckenmiller which was Soros associate or worked for him and generated the british pound idea, lost billions getting his reptilian brain fired up and thinking the dot com stocks would never stop going up. He recently invested in a new hype market, cloud companies, which is a few years old now (before crypto bubble) I worked in this hype scam, seemed ridiculous to me, and I am glad this bubble burst. They laughed at Warren Buffet for being cautious, and they got burned... We had the same happen recently with not IPOs but this time ICOs. People told me I was overly bearish 2 years ago for saying Lisk would fall to 1 dollar and even below, they thought it was going to 300 bucks on rebrand LOL! Well guess what? I was right all along, and the price bounced on almost all the levels I pointed out 2 years ago: Of course these bubbles bring all the scammers. Bitconnect promising 1% a day because of "their magical arbitrage bot". Money just appears out of thin air in people mind? These reptiles realize what 1% a day means? 3700% after just 1 year. It's more than Ponzi or Madoff ever promised... The internet & crypto bubbles, both irrational. Nothing "changes the laws of economics". There is no "infinite profitability" wealth that magically pops out of thin air. There never will be. pretty sure the laws of math & physics are never going to change. 5- Famous one: Tulip Mania Every one knows about this one I guess. Imagine paying fortunes for some bulb because "it's so fashionable". It's just a stupid flower you idiots! 6- Fashionable self harm & harm to others Did you know there was a time (and a place) when poisoning people was fashionnable? Oh how awesome! Stabbing someone was a punishable crime and offended people, but poisoning someone? Oh how cool you are! According to ancient greek texts, a habit in Ethiopia was that when the king was disabled in a part of his body, his entourage would mutilate themselves to have the same disability. I've read about dumb teenagers inserting needles in their bodies or strangling themselves because it's the trending thing. I don't even want to look into that, I'd risk losing some brain cells. 7- Cigarettes are good for you, and radioactive drinks give you vigor Lol. Well it's self explanatory I think XD This is what people used to think a century or so ago 8- The jews/witches are responsible for all the ills of society Repeating one... Funny thing is before the little ice age the church called the fear of witches a dumb superstition, they tried their best to make pagans look stupid and this was I guess one of those things? And a few centuries later when CO2 levels declined and people started getting HANGRY here is the church, burning hundreds of thousands of witches... 9- Penny stocks A news of a partnership or other shill comes out and some penny stocks go up hundreds of percent because "this might be the next amazon". It's way overvalued, by ignorant retail traders, it always falls right back to zero (baseline), and they keep falling for it. Idk man. 10- "I believe in science" Here you have 99% of science (I do not include maths) theories that end up getting disproven (or as some call it "improved"), and yet, some clowns are "die hard believers because science is true whether you agree or not". Mkay, so for the past 10000 years science kept getting it wrong over and over and evolve, but today, this very day, this is when all of it is correct and won't be proven wrong? Just come up with a new "amazinging sciencism", make it flashy and revolutionary and all, launch a few companies, buy shares so price go up, and enjoy your billions as suckers pile in...
TVC:DJIEducation
by MrRenev
9
Good news! I found the Nokia chartSome people following me might have read about the Nokia example. Well it was here all along. The name is disgusting, it was 1 of the few I didn't try in the long list of results. No wonder I wouldn't find the right chart. Posting this idea as BTC because I want more than 3 views ;) Plus it is the one currently in an echo bubble. First let me repost the railway bubble chart: There was 3 echo bubbles, with the last 1 going higher even. I do not think this is very likely with Bitcoin, facts point to going the sugar & Nokia route. Typical echo bubble death... Let's look at the log charts: Sugar extended down 1.236. Nokia 2. An extension of 1.236 on BTC would bring the price to ~ 1000, 1.618 would be around 600 bucks. My favorite part, the linear charts years later: MoviePass, oh what an awesome scam: A couple varying examples:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
30
Surprise! How to use fib correctly. Log fib!In a previous idea I said if it got 50 likes I would post a surprise. I think they don't want you to know... Some people might already know this but I know for a fact the vast majority does not. I hope this does not stop working now that I share it. I have plenty of other strats and if markets evolve and 1 strat stops working I know I'll be the first to evolve so I do not even mind. Now how to draw the log fib? You simply use "Fib channel" and voila. I think it is supposed to be a fib that gets drawn diagonally, but unlike the regular fib it scales with log. So it can be diverted from its main purpose and used this way. Some examples: It looks like the stock market retraces have been more shallow since investors have been telling people to buy & hold. Didn't stop billionaires from being made. On something that went up 10 years, +600%, like gold I am not sure which one is best. On really big moves it has to be the log one obviously. You can only see the top 10% on the linear chart and most of it is too smal because of the exponential rise. Amazon is a good example. I am not saying this works 100% of the time & don't go all in. There are not a whole lot of really large moves so not a huge sample size to work with. Since crypto has no intrisic value and most importantly is highly manipulated I expect this to keep working perfectly until the crypto cow is entirely milked and there is nothing left in. Crypto is still at a 150 billion market cap, at under 25 billion they might think it's not worth their time anymore. Since miners might bail out (I heard they were doing it little by little) and wash trading / ponzi exchanges are going to exit scam, it could only work once more and then suddenly end. Crypto was nice and all when it was only made up of noobs, but in 2017 the sophisticated crowd joined and they are interested in cold hard cash, not imaginary money they won't ever be able to cash out of and transform into real concrete money (since it has negative sum rate & no value). I wish I knew about it earlier and had money to spare. But we almost all have to deal with getting so close to making huge returns and just miss it by a hair. Those that accepted it have been able to move forward, and we can grow (as fast as our mightly lords the regulators that control our lives will allow). Those that are still in denial and cannot accept they missed their chance to buy early / cash out at the top, are stuck and will get milked to the last drop (until crypto is small enough the whales ignore it & they'll keep coming any time it grows). As a conclusion; when you look at really big timeframes / or moves of maybe 1000% in a short time, use the log fib ==> This is how you do it on tradingview. Until next bubble ;)
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
2
Why I am accumulating Ostrich feathers at these cheap prices"Ostrich feathers took off in a big way in the 1880s. ‘A well-dressed woman nowadays is as fluffy as a downy bird fresh from the nest’; ‘If you would be fashionable this winter, you will be beplumed.’ Soaring international demand encouraged South African farmers to rear more birds and by 1913 the ostrich population of Little Karoo (the region at the heart of feather mania) grew from practically nil to 776,000. South African farmers and feather merchants became extremely wealthy on the back of the trade and started building ostentatious feather mansions which boasted ‘panelled walls, tiled bathrooms, hand-painted friezes; the finest mahogany, walnut, and oak furniture... gilt concave mirrors, silver and Sheffield plate, the best Irish linen.’ At the market’s height in 1913, farmers were expanding, and brokers and investors were stockpiling large quantities of feathers in anticipation of even higher prices. Many in the trade were utterly convinced that the profits would keep rolling in, for feathers, like diamonds, were an ‘investment for life’, and in 1911 the world’s only ostrich professor confidently stated that ostrich farming would be a permanent feature of South African farming. Three years later, however, the feather market began a precipitous and permanent decline. By late 1914, changing fashions, growing concerns over animal cruelty and conservation and the advent of the motor car, which rendered elaborate headgear impractical, all spelt the end for feather mania. The crash resulted in great hardship for South Africa’s feather farmers and merchants. Scores of farmers committed suicide (weak hands) rather than face life without their farms. Merchants’ feather mansions were auctioned off for the price of their windows and doors – one merchant even forced his wife to sell her oven door to pay off his debts. Ostrich carcasses littered the South African landscape because farmers could not afford the birds’ feed." Copied from the internet. People say accumulating Ostrich feather is stupid and their fundamental value is not as high as I would think, but they do not understand the new world, it is not the way it used to be anymore. Ford astonished the world in 1914 by offering a $5 per day wage ($130 today), which more than doubled the rate of most of his workers. The world is changing and new demands are arising. With mass production this opens so many possibilities. So many innovations are being made. The bubble popped a hundred years ago, so a new bull market is imminent. The longer this bear market lasts, the closer we get to the bull market. 1 Feather = 1 Feather come at me. On the really long term Ostrich feathers are in a bullish trend. What do you mean inflation? They might be slightly below their 1913 price, but I am still up 5000% compared to 1250. People are calling me stupid for accumulating Ostrich Feathers they laugh and throw stones at me but they simply do not understand the powerful new world economy. Besides, back in 1905 when the price of Feather dropped they called hoarding it incredibly stupid, but those that did saw massive returns in 1913 so where is your argument now? I am just waiting for Feather to pop above the price trendline and then we are really going to get going. Return to the mean BTW: Of course the countless examples that just die disappear and are not on trading view. Commodities do not just disappear, so I can use that as example. Good luck finding a feather chart. Cryptoers are going to look very smart in 2115.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
2