Back testing My Kingdom Strategy Part 4Last Part To This Back test Ending With 4R
9 Wins And 5 Lost's
Consolidation
Trading Consolidations - Trading PillsHow to trade consolidations, ranging markets.
Most of the time, markets move sideways.
lets find out 3 ways to get advantage of these periods.
Impulse VS Correction - Price Action Analysis Hello everyone:
In this educational video, I will go over what an impulse and a correction is in the market.
I will point out how to distinguish them in different time frames, and give a few examples on them as well.
The market can only be in two phrases.
Either its in an impulsive phrase, or a corrective phrase.
It doesn't matter what market or the time frames you are looking at, there will always be impulses and corrections.
So, what is an impulse, and what is a correction?
Impulse - price is in the high momentum period, and it's moving very fast.
Correction - price is consolidating, and moving sideway, or slowing ascending/descending sideway price action.
Determine what is impulse, and what is correction will give you a better edge in the market. You don't want to get trapped in the consolidation within the corrections.
How can I utilize this to my analysis ?
Multi-time frame analysis:
From HTF, top down approach, Understand what HTF is doing and go down to LTF for confirmation and entries for the best R:R.
Thank you
How to approach a pair during its consolidation period!-When there is a consolidation happening on a pair, this would be an excellent opportunity to look for a breakout and a reversal of the support/resistance of the consolidation box.
-For these types of setups we need be patient and see how price will move to either the upside or downside.
-Once we see a breakout of the consolidation box then it is essential to wait for a retest and enter when we see a strong candle stick confirmation depending on which way price breakout the box.
-Make sure to do loads of backtesting and forward testing this strategy to become more confident in the strategy.
-Make sure to journal all the trades to see how well you perform and look back to see what you can improve on.
If you need any more advice, support or mentoring then give me a message to see how best I can help you.
Please make sure to follow, leave a like and a comment on your opinion/ideas on how to approach these types of strategy.
In the near future, I will be hoping to post more educational posts to help my followers or anyone who wants to learn and get a better understanding on how to approach markets.
Trader/Investors must understand this process.......!Kindly comment with " Yes " for agree and "No" for disagree with this post:
Before the break-out, I've informed that " Breakout will give truck of Money. ..!". Exactly, we seen this statement was TRUE, didn't it? (End of idea link is added about this idea)
Let's talk step by step was happened here.
The Width of congestion area was equal to height of the price surged.
From my personal experience and the survey/observation I'm talking about this is almost the same area as price congestion in size of width and height after the price break. Let's try to explain in another words:
Horizontal width of congestion size = Vertical price move after break-out. (Generally, i noted that price moved away so far after breakout whenever congestion area is much longer.)
--> Let's talk little more deeper about CONGESTION area:
In the congestion area, accumulation or distribution process process. We will talk about accumulation only because, this was happened here.
Accumulation : smart money, money makers, huge fund-management, landlord of global investors whatever you called them they grab/connecting instrument(stocks, currency,etc) from retail investors in very slow motion because, they can smell insider upcoming news. After the completing this accumulation, news clear and price start to go away from the breakout area.
later i will try to explain you more deeper about it practically. Yes, obviously we can smell the process accumulation/distribution.
Double MA ChannelsSimple strategy using 2 Simple Moving Averages channels, Momentum and ADX with Directional Movement
First Channel:
70, High
70, Low
70, Close
Second Channel:
144, High
144, Low
144, Close
Momentum: 34
ADX: 14, 20
To use this strategy please refer to link related to previous post.
The SMA 144 channel is used to determine the strength of a trend. Kind of like Bollinger Bands, the 144 will move farther or closer to the 70 depending on the strength of the trend. It's goo to tell you if you have incoming consolidation.
How to trade in range/consolidation periodA lot of people asked me what to do in the case when the price is stuck in consolidation.
You can use Fibonacci retracement and create a range (0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1) and put it from swing low up to swing high. By that, you will create key points where the price will react on during consolidation time.
You can use it on all Timeframes and it does not matter if it is Monthly, Weekly, Daily or minute chart.
As you can see here, price very nicely reacts to each of our levels which we have set up once the range has been established. Also, when the price is stuck in consolidation range you do not want to trade it. Avoid it. You will make many mistakes, rather you should focus on a clear bullish/bearish trend.
HOW-TO GRID TRADE (Tutorial #1) Trade While You SleepHOW-TO GRID TRADE:
HIGH PROFITS - LOW RISKS - TONS OF FUN.
Trade While You Sleep
Let’s be honest, trading is risky, especially trading crypto. We all know it’s just matter of figuring out if market prices are going up or going down, but isn’t it funny how the market seems determined to go in the exact opposite way you pick? Especially when you have money on the line!
It’s great that markets trend 30% of the time, we attempt to catch the wave (up or down) and cash in when we’ve called it right. But the often overlooked reality is, markets go sideways, they consolidate, they squeeze, they get stuck in ranges over 70% of the time. Just when you thought you were catching a trend (to the moon!) , now you’re stuck waiting for the market to do something. It zigs a little, it zags a little, smaller moves, up, down, but nothing too exciting, right?
If we only could get paid for watching charts wiggle in a range, not having to predict whether things are going up or down… THAT’S what would make you smile . Agreed? Especially if you could automate this “wiggle for profits” idea and reduce your risks to a bare minimum. THAT’S what this article is about. Grid Trading, or how to wiggle your way to high profits without losing your shirt.
Let’s learn and have some fun!
GRID TRADING STRATEGY
Trading bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies with an automated solution has become a very popular plan-of-action because it guarantees 24/7 trading activity. It reduces our addiction to chart watching and lets us eat, sleep and be merry. It allows you to exploit trading opportunities around the clock, manage your risks without emotions and follow a predefined trading pattern that often beats the ROI (Return on Investment) you're getting from other hands-on trading strategies.
While all this is true, it was another factor that brought me to Grid Trading initially. It was the fact that even though I loved to get in the trenches and trade chart patterns, indicator signals and often unsubstantiated “hunches,” I found that the capital I was NOT actively trading was just sitting there, doing nothing. The bulk of my capital was sitting in USD, or USDT or BTC . Because I risk manage and rarely enter a trade with more than 5% of my total available money (per trade) , more often than not… 50% to 80% of my investment capital was NOT realizing any return at all.
THE LIGHT GOES ON
One day, after testing a little known, little used strategy of trading within a pre-established GRID range where every tick-up and every tick-down had the probability of making me money, the light switch within my head went on. Why not take my some of my “reserve” capital, place in a Grid, automate the process, and let it earn a little “side-money” while I continued my regular trading activities?
As this “side-money” project took off. I started noticing that it would many times make more of a ROI than my regular trading. I’d look at my Grid results and often see 2%, 3%, 8% over a 2 or 3 day period - these were serious returns, with far less the risk. Annualized I was looking at gains of 300%, 500% even 1000%+ if I just focused on Grids. uh, HELLO!
Truth be told, Grid Trading is not a panacea of all wins and no losses. It’s also essential to know that a grid trading strategy does not guarantee a stable income in all market conditions. If you want to successfully utilize a grid crypto trading strategy (like I can teach you) , you must understand the fundamentals of trading, the current market phase, how to find grid trade opportunities, how to set-up grids for maximum gains and how to manage the risks.
HERE’S THE GOOD NEWS
Grid Trading is no harder than what you’re already doing and in fact, the learning curve is far less challenging. Most people can have their first grid up and running within a day or two. You can do grid trading while you continue your other trading pursuits (as it requires little time or effort). If done right, your odds of making money are much better than almost any other trading strategy you explore.
LET’S START WITH A CRAZY LOOKING TRADINGVIEW CHART
GRID BOT EXAMPLE
THE PATH TO PROFIT IS NOT A STRAIGHT ONE...
You’re looking at (in the chart illustration) is a 23 HOUR period (15 min. chart) with a grid range of 5.48% (bottom to top) . Had you been lucky enough to have bought at the bottom and sold at the top (just a regular trade) , you have pocketed roughly 5.48% on a single trade. However, with an automated GRID trade strategy, every zig down BUYS and every zag up SELLS all in incremental and equal portions of your capital. So the more zigs and zags you have, the better! Just as an example, you can turn a 5% gain into 8% if the path zigs and zags along its way.
Keep in mind that in this example, we are only trading LONG, yet we profit from the up and down price action as prices cross each grid line triggering a buy or a sell. Once any transaction is complete, the automation resets a new grid line to replace the previous one that was hit. And so it goes, cha-ching, cha-ching, cha-ching!
UP? DOWN? WHO CARES!
Grid trading is a type of strategy generating earnings from the market movements in a specific price range. It loses its power in a strong trading market (for example when pump or dump happens. The grid trading technique explores to its benefit natural price volatility within a defined range. It does this by opening buy and sell orders regularly at fixed intervals above and below a market price.
The advantage of grid trading is that it requires little forecasting of market direction (though you are best to seek out sideways or upward ranging market periods). In addition, it is easy to automate this strategy and run it continuously. The biggest drawback is if there’s a sudden price drop without retracement outside your pre-defined grid range. This drawback is best managed by adhering to good stoploss placement and smart observance of support structure and trend tendencies when setting your grid parameters in the beginning.
BECOME A CRYPTO GRID MASTER
Learn how to grid trade properly and you’ll experience one of the easiest, safest and time-tested trading approaches ever devised. Stick with it and in the long run, become a "Grid Master" and you can enjoy substantial results.
FIRST IN A SERIES OF GRID STRATEGY EDUCATIONAL TUTORIALS
I hope this tutorial series helps increase your bottomline!
HOW DO I LEARN MORE?
1) Review my related IDEAS and TUTORIALS (linked below)
3) Explore my GRID INDICATORS (linked Below)
HOW DO I AUTOMATE MY GRID STRATEGY?
Explore further help and links at the bottom of this tutorial.
PLEASE HIT THE LIKE BUTTON (and follow me... lots of great stuff in the works!)
As always, I appreciate your support. Please share with others.
ENJOY!
Dan Hollings
Master Crypto Grid Trader
Please Explore My Other Indicators, Scripts, Grids and Educational Ideas.
@ DanHollings on Tradingview.
Breaking the symmetrical, the traders survivor guide by hedgehogSo you been trading for a while and got stuck in a symmetrical triangle apocalypse? let me make it easy on you:
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
**** Facts:
1. Triangle: At-least 2 lower highs, 2 higher lows to start the trend.. (in total 4 points)
2. Trend: Usually happens after months of one trend, and appears at the peak of the trend. appears as uncertainty, consolidation and a temporary stop for the trend,
this usually a 'no trade zone' as it's very hard to guess which direction it will break, this is where the sellers and the buyers trying to detainment if the price is valid,
until it forces them to make a decision, which usually explodes and continues for long period of time...
3. Volume: The more the Symmetrical extends, so does the volume diminishes more and more (The quiet before the storm) until decision has made which means it will
force one side to agree to the strong trend.
4. Duration: It can extend for many weeks - months, usually on strong trends it can continue for 3 whole months!!!
5. Break-out timeframe: Usually happens after half or 3/4 of the whole triangle length, if it breaks before that then it is a premature breakout which means we either
going back to that zone or it wasn't a significant stop thus wont be the break.
6. Confirmation: Should be with V big volume rise (sellers/buyers) then, and also should be confirmed only after closing daily candle.. some traders prefer to wait for up
to 3 days to confirm a new trend pattern.
7. Return to Apex: Not a must, but surely the best, if the price returns back to the Apex zones of the break, to use it as support/resist, to push it even harder to
continue the trend.
8. And the most important key note to know is price target: The widest range of the triangle (From where it started, between the highest high and the lowest low) is
the price movement up/down, if lets say the range between the top and the button is 6k$, then we should expect the break to fall/grow towards that same
ammount.
**** Some warnings:
1. It is never know and very hard to know which way a symmetrical triangle will break, but usually on more cases (+/- 75% of times) it will break towards the continues trend, if it started at the peak of bullish then more chances it will break as bullish, BUT! a symmetrical triangle is as I explained an uncertain point between the buyers and the sellers, and it might be a key point where a reversal for the market appears, which means on many cases (+/- 25% of times) it might break against the trend.
2. It's very dangerous and hard to guess where we will break to, thus sometimes it's called a 'no zone trade' which also causes less activity of volume which drops more and more the further we progress towards the end of the triangle, you should work with very tight SLs (Or even avoid trading) as a strong break out push might be so fast that not only it will easily hit your SLs, but it might also ignore them (With gaps) if the exchange SLs are 'market SLs' type, so be careful.
3. It's always best to trade after a break out fully confirmed (Or better to say: invest, as this is usually long term until we reach the price target)..
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* If you like what I do, please push "follow" and "like".
* Also if you want live time signals and learn with the community then you are welcome to join here: t.me
* If you want to appreciate my work with spare BTCs then you are welcome to send them to: bc1q8kzn0x8j4dmws00ntuhyma8p4c9jwyj0gzxua9
Cheers, love <3
Your favorite vigilante speculator: Hedgehog King!
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Understanding Consolidation (BTCUSD)Proximal and distal lines used here to highlight a type of consolidation pattern known as a triangle pattern. Consolidation patterns are commonly understood to represent the redistribution of an asset due to shifts in sentiment, profit taking and/or revaluation.
In this particular case, due to recent break of an area of price-interest (5,800-6,200), I would venture to assume this consolidation is caused by profit taking and is most likely going to lead to a retest of said area. However, my outlook is neutral until price will have broken out of consolidation in either direction.
Understanding consolidation is fundamental to a trader's success and should not be overlooked.
HOW TO TRADE CONSOLIDATION The short answer: DONT.
I've decided to use EUR/GBP today as a prime example of when to sit on the sidelines and not risk a cent of your capital. As you can see, the past 7 weeks have been an absolute mess with price looking very indecisive and all over the place. This means that traders are not able to come to a consensus of whether they are bullish or bearish on this particular pair. Now remember when you are trading you want to be able to identify and execute your trades where there is likely to be a large amount of buy/sell orders (particularly 'smart money' orders however this is a lesson in itself) and if price is just moving sideways, how exactly will you be able to do that? The answer is most likely you most likely will not be able to. The trick with trading consolidation is being able to stay patient and let the masses fight over a measly amount of pips while waiting for the market to show you the direction it is heading next. You will be able to identify this when price clearly breaks the current consolidation either to the upside or downside. When this happens after a long period of consolidation, you might notice it does this with tremendous strength (I like to picture this as the market 'coiling' up before releasing its stored energy to either the bull or bear side). Now the question you should be asking yourself after that point is ''How can I now take advantage of this potentially newly formed trend?''. Instead of just getting long or short as hell after seeing a breakout, I like a little more confirmation before putting any of my capital at risk. This usually comes in the form of a pullback to the first potential lower high/higher low after the breakout has occurred and this is usually where I look to place an entry if my strategy signals to do so.
Hope you were able to take some value from this mini lesson, let me know in the comments or PM me if you want more short lessons similar to this!
Have a great trading week.
How to filter noise out of Technicals and Fundamentals part 2
Part 2 Fundamental noise filtering
I place far more weight on fundamental analysis then technical. At first I thought it was useless as half the news or analysts would say one thing and the other half would say the opposite. the trick is to only look at sources that can reliably and logically be shown to have a impact on the market.
Who has an impact on the market:
1: Speculators (yep just speculators not the news or the actual state of an economy)
while that statement is not exactly true it seems to be a reliable self fulfilling prophecy
lets take a look at large speculators positions from 2002 until 2018 compared to a bar chart.
i65.tinypic.com
this picture shows the weekly CFTC commitment of traders reports from 2002 to 2018 correlated into a line chart under a corresponding bar chart.
The arrow in the picture points to a turning point where the speculators (green line) went from net short to net long. what happened?
The market shot up like a rocket. outside of consolidation periods the market just about always drops or gains right after this happens just looking at the EUR it ALWAYS marks the end of a trend without fail. Its almost eerie how accurate the CFTC comittment of traders reports are at predicting trend changes.
where do we get the COT report and how do we use it?
Step 1:
go to www.cftc.gov
step 2:
click on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and scroll past the butter, cows and logs to the EURO FX
i67.tinypic.com
step 3:
look at the important parts of the EURO FX data.
i67.tinypic.com
1: the date of reported positions
2:Non-Commercials (people investing to make money. These are the people who have so much money in positions they have to report it to the CFTC weekly. people and company's with that kind of money have far more resources to base their decisions off of then me and if most of them think in one direction then odds are most of them are right. As we can see on the chart in the picture most of them went net short not during but before the euro crashed in 2014.)
3: On the left long positions on the right short positions. (far more long then short this is a definite uptrend.)
4: changes from last week.
very very important for positioning in immediate furtue. For example on the 9th we got this report
i66.tinypic.com
what happened directly after was an uptrend. look for changes in net long and short positions. An increase in net long from last week or a decrease in net short from last week will likely predict an uptrend in a day or 2. sometimes the trend already happened by the time you get the report.
The COT report is the only fundamental analysis I use.
Why:
1. conflict of interest.
most of the large news company's are owned by banks ergo any information I gather based on news is biased.
2. Education
I grew up on fishing boats in Alaska and currently drive a forklift all day. forming a accurate opinion based on economic data on my own is beyond my level of education. Lets recognize our weak points and not pretend we can be on par with someone who has spent years in college for economics.
3. Retail traders are 90% wrong and I am a retail trader
lets take a quick look at how Retail traders net positions look.
www.oanda.com
as we can see with the EUR/USD 63% of retail traders are trying to short a market that has been going up for months non-stop and they have been for months its usually worse then 63% too lul.
