Chart Analysis is not a gambling! Reason why TA is greatHello traders. This is Tommy.
Today, I prepared the most basic and at the same time essential materials that every trader should know. Trading is literally the act of exchanging or trading something with a certain value. If we look at the history, we humans have always traded something within the social community from the Neolithic Age to develop into a better civilization or for individual survival when we have enough food or assets. When the surplus accumulation and self-sufficiency economy due to food production was formed, even before the concept of currency or money, buying and selling (trading) was always with us.
But when we trade, it is not a reasonable thing to do if we lose money when you buy or sell something, right? We humans have always traded at a value or price that is commensurate with supply and demand, within this immutable fence. And we, who are full of greed, have been trading in such a way as to somehow benefit ourselves a little bit more. In a way, I think this is the basic idea of capitalism.
Anyway, our ancestors naturally oriented trades for profit, sometimes seeing losses and sometimes profits through these transactions. And suddenly realized. “Ah, the quantity demanded, and the quantity supplied change over time. Because of this, all objects in this world, even abstract ones, change in value over time. Oh, I can make money if I use this well?”
A culture of profit taking has naturally been formed thanks to those who possess the temperament of smart entrepreneurs. In this way, the economy and financial markets were eventually born, and several market participants came in for the sole purpose of generating profits, that is, for investment purposes. People who have properly understood the market principle of supply and demand have been trading with certain standards to make money with it. Some people can trade by the weather (buy when it's sunny, sell when it's raining), some by rolling the dice (buy when it's high, sell when it's low), and someone just by feeling. Of course, economists studied after realizing that trading on unreliable and absurd standards would eventually destroy them. And realized it. “Ah, let’s find the right standard to set the standard. From what I've seen so far, does it make money by trading based on the information about the product and the value of the product that changes every moment? Let’s dig into it properly!”
And they created a great science. Analysis through information, Fundamental Analysis (FA), analysis through charts, that is, past transaction data, and Technical Analysis (TA: Technical Analysis).
FA is an analysis method that determines whether a product's current intrinsic value is overvalued or undervalued. For example, when we want to invest in a company, that is, if we want to buy shares or stocks in that company, we must first estimate the company's growth potential and potential, right? To do this, you must make a final investment decision by referring to the company's financial indicators, good news/bad news, past asset/revenue growth rates, etc.
On the other hand, TA is a method of making investment decisions by referring to various theories and indicators with meaning in charts that intuitively show past price movements and momentum.
Of course, it would be the best to do both FA and TA, but in these days, retail traders and individual investors, like us, have time/technical limitations to receive information, analyze it, and immediately reflect it in investment. It is not enough that there are various kinds of false information to deceive the traders, and even if it is reliable information, it is highly likely to start at a loss even if it is received a little later than others. It is useful to spot large market trends in the long run, but when this information reaches the public, it is likely that it has already been priced in by institutions (Big Parties). Without huge information power or a computer that can perform FA quickly and accurately, it is difficult to survive in this market with only FA. There is a risk that is too great to carry out an investment with only one FA standard.
Therefore, to make a successful investment decision, you need to find a more precise trading position through TA, and in the end, if you are a skilled investor, you must learn TA.
The dictionary meaning of TA is known as a technique for predicting future market trends by examining a tool called a chart that digitizes the overall price volatility and momentum of a product. I'm someone who doesn't fully agree with this meaning. The term “prediction” itself is a very dangerous word. Even the most talented investors in the world cannot predict future prices unless they are gods. Technical analysis is closer to the realm of response than prediction. For this reason, our traders look at the charts and always have various possible scenarios in mind and come up with appropriate countermeasures accordingly.
With less than 10 years of trading experience, if I dared to define the meaning of the term technical analysis, I would like to say: Personally, all TAs are based on historical data, and through various theories (or methodologies) and technical indicators, first, probabilistically identify the market trend, that is, whether the price is an upward trend or a downward trend, and then determine the price action, that is, support resistance. I think it is an analysis technique that derives the sections with high probability.
Some of you may have questions like this. “No, how do you find a trend and price action interval by looking at only historical data?”
This is the reason I fell in love with market analysis. This study called technical analysis is a technique that statistically patterned and quantified the psychology of investors (greed, doubt, fear, etc.) with a lot of data from the past. Surprisingly, external variables that can affect the market, such as good news/bad news, are also reflected in this probabilistically. There have been many times when I have felt the greatness of technical analysis, and there were many times when good news/bad news came out amazingly at just the right timing in situations where there was no choice but to rise or fall referring to the chart. Of course, there are situations where Big Parties leak news to the media to take advantage of popular psychology, but even the pattern, timing, or frequency of such good news and bad news is reflected in the study of technical analysis.
Anyway, once you have probabilistically derived the market trend and price action section through TA, you need to design a trading strategy according to the situation. There are words that I keep emphasizing like nagging. Just looking at the charts doesn't mean you're good at trading. This trading strategy includes how to structure the portfolio, how to design the profit/loss ratio/range, how much seed to enter, high/low multiplier, and how to set up profit/loss response strategies.
In addition, a well-designed principled strategy is essential to prevent non-thinking trading. This principled strategy is easy to design, but incredibly difficult to follow and implement. No matter how well technical analysis and trading strategies are formulated, these principles are of no use if they are not well designed or adhered to. There are individual differences, but honestly, I don't think there is an answer to the principle strategy other than learning or mastering it through long-term practice or entrusting your own technical analysis/trading strategy to a machine/computer/algorithm. The fewer human emotions are involved, the higher the success rate, but how can you trade without emotions when your money is at stake? It's hard. One tip is to start trading with a small amount that you don't mind losing if you want to learn principle trading well. It doesn't matter if you lose it, so you'll be less empathetic that much, and you'll be able to increase a seed little by little.
We must become traders who always think of risks (losses) before rewards (returns). Please keep this word in mind. For example, in a trading setup that costs 10 million dollars if you make a profit and 10 million dollars if you lose, rather than a mindset like “Oh, I want to win 10 million dollars quickly~”, “I may lose 10 million dollars. You must trade with the mindset of “Let’s be prepared.” This will naturally match the seed to your bowl.
Then I'll wrap up for today.
Until now, this was Tommy of the Tommy Trading Team.
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Thank you.
Consolidationzone
BTC- 4 TH WAVE CONSOLIDATION DETAILED STUDYEven though i tried my wave count to convince the BTC bulls, it is not possible for me to deviate from NW rules in time cycles.
Wave 4 has to to take equal time as wave 3 taken, if you apply this rule ,we have more time left to finish wave 4,
So far wave 'A' of wave 4 completed in 5 waves (wxyxz), therefore wave B will resume fastly ,DON'T assume it as 5 th wave
Because after wave 'B', BTC bears will start selling to complete the final wave 'C' until 25th OCT,2021.
Since wave A is 5 segmet(motive) waves,the retracement of B is limited to 61.8%(47895)(2nd AUG)
Wave C must be of 5 wave down after wave B with a minimum target of 25300.
Hence 5 th wave will resume from NOV,21
How to approach a pair during its consolidation period!-When there is a consolidation happening on a pair, this would be an excellent opportunity to look for a breakout and a reversal of the support/resistance of the consolidation box.
-For these types of setups we need be patient and see how price will move to either the upside or downside.
-Once we see a breakout of the consolidation box then it is essential to wait for a retest and enter when we see a strong candle stick confirmation depending on which way price breakout the box.
-Make sure to do loads of backtesting and forward testing this strategy to become more confident in the strategy.
-Make sure to journal all the trades to see how well you perform and look back to see what you can improve on.
If you need any more advice, support or mentoring then give me a message to see how best I can help you.
Please make sure to follow, leave a like and a comment on your opinion/ideas on how to approach these types of strategy.
In the near future, I will be hoping to post more educational posts to help my followers or anyone who wants to learn and get a better understanding on how to approach markets.
How history hypes predict future price movement!Sometimes I ask myself why am I producing all this educational material on TW since it gets much fewer views than trade ideas themselves.
Usually, the answer is because I want to give something back. I want to teach the ones that want to learn how to catch a fish, not only get a fish.
Nikola Tesla said that we should check number 3, 6 and 9 and we would know much more about the World itself.
Let's check what number 3 tells about crypto markets.
Do you see 3 tops on all 4 graphs where the next one is lower than the previous one?
- 1st one is local hype top (peak)
- 2nd one is a local dead cat (where people still think run will go on)
- 3rd one is usually the last one (where weak players lose hands)
When that happens it's time for FUD to go away and recovery comes in place.
However, nothing can go exponential until the end. It has to stop to get some fuel for the next local hype.
That's consolidation before the next push. It can build up sideways also, but usually, it already has some upwards movement.
Some are faster like 135days or 185days to the next top in 2016 or 55-56days in 2017 when we are already deeper in the next bubble cycle.
Where are we today?
Is it consolidation or is it 3rd local top?
What do you think!?!
Give some opinions in the comments below and I will write down where I think we are. With approximately 90% probability! ;)
Enjoy your trades and don't forget that it's just an idea and not investment advice!
