From Fiat to Crypto: A Pragmatic View on Cross-Asset USD Impact1. Introduction: Why Understanding USD Impact Matters
The U.S. dollar (USD) plays a pivotal role in shaping global financial markets, especially for assets denominated in dollars, such as S&P 500 Futures (ES/MES). Its movements affect equity market flows, international capital dynamics, and, ultimately, price trends for USD-denominated instruments. However, traditional methods of gauging USD strength often fall short of capturing the nuanced interplay between fiat currencies and emerging digital assets.
To bridge this gap, we introduce a pragmatic and dynamic solution: the USD Proxy. By combining a carefully weighted mix of key global currencies (Euro and Yen) with Bitcoin (BTC), this proxy provides a comprehensive and CME-specific lens for understanding USD strength. It is a modern approach to assess the dollar's “true” influence on equity markets, particularly the S&P 500 Futures.
2. The USD Proxy: A Pragmatic Cross-Asset Index
The USD Proxy is built to reflect real-time market dynamics, offering traders a potentially more relevant measure of the dollar’s impact. Unlike static indexes, this proxy is dynamic, continuously adjusting based on three major components:
Euro Futures (6E): Representing the largest fiat currency trading block.
Japanese Yen Futures (6J): Capturing the Asian market's influence.
Bitcoin Futures (BTC): Adding a layer of innovation by integrating cryptocurrency, which operates independently of traditional fiat systems.
The weighting is determined by notional values, market prices, and volume-weighted activity as volumes change and evolve through time, ensuring the proxy adapts to liquidity and relative importance. This structure provides a balanced view of USD strength across fiat and crypto markets, making it highly applicable to modern trading.
3. Adjusting S&P 500 Futures Using the USD Proxy
To uncover the “true” equity market performance, the S&P 500 Futures can be adjusted using the USD Proxy. The formula is straightforward:
Adjusted S&P 500 Futures = S&P 500 Futures Price x USD Proxy Value
This adjustment neutralizes the effects of USD strength or weakness, revealing the core price action of the equity market. By doing so, traders can distinguish between moves driven by dollar fluctuations and those stemming from genuine market trends.
For example, during periods of a strengthening USD, the unadjusted S&P 500 Futures may appear weaker due to currency pressure. However, the adjusted version may provide a clearer picture of the underlying equity market, enabling traders to make more informed decisions.
4. Regular vs. Adjusted S&P 500 Futures: Key Insights
The comparison between regular and USD Proxy-adjusted S&P 500 Futures charts could reveal critical divergences that may have been often overlooked. These divergences highlight how currency fluctuations can obscure or exaggerate the equity market’s actual performance.
For instance, while the S&P 500 Futures have recently reached new all-time highs, some market participants may view this as an indication of the market being overpriced. However, when adjusted using the USD Proxy, the chart reveals a different reality: the S&P 500 Futures are far from their highs. This adjustment aims to neutralize the currency's impact, uncovering that the recent record-breaking levels in the unadjusted chart are likely largely influenced by USD dynamics rather than true underlying equity market performance.
5. Trading Opportunities in Adjusted S&P 500 Futures
The adjusted S&P 500 Futures chart opens up new possibilities for traders to identify actionable insights and anomalies. By neutralizing the currency effect, traders can:
Spot Relative Overperformance: Identify instances where the adjusted chart shows strength compared to the regular chart, signaling robust underlying equity market dynamics.
Capitalize on Potential Anomalies: Detect price-action discrepancies caused by abrupt currency moves and align trades accordingly.
Refine Entry and Exit Points: Use the adjusted chart especially during high-volatility periods influenced by the USD.
6. Trading Application: A Long Opportunity in Adjusted S&P 500 Futures
Trade Setup:
o Instrument: S&P 500 Futures (ES) or Micro S&P 500 Futures (MES).
o Entry Point: Around 5900.00
o Targets:
Primary Target: 6205.75 (aggressive traders, Fibonacci extension level).
Conservative Target: 6080.00 (moderate traders, earlier Fibonacci extension).
o Stop Loss: Below the entry, calculated to maintain a 1:3 reward-to-risk ratio.
Rationale:
The adjusted S&P 500 Futures chart highlights a technical setup where the price is reacting to:
Breakout to the Upside: The adjusted chart is breaking out of a key resistance level, signaling potential continuation of upward momentum.
The 20-SMA: Acting as dynamic support, aligning with recent price behavior.
Technical Support Level: A key horizontal level.
These converging factors suggest the potential for a bullish continuation, targeting Fibonacci extension levels at 6205.75 or 6080.00. The adjusted chart provides added confidence that the move is not overly influenced by USD fluctuations, grounding the analysis in equity-specific dynamics.
Trade Mechanics:
o Instrument Options:
ES (full-size contract), with a point value of $50 per point.
MES (micro-sized version), designed for smaller accounts or precision risk management, with a point value of $5 per point—10 times smaller than the full-size ES contract.
o Margins (approximate, depending on broker):
ES: Approximately $15,000 per contract.
MES: Approximately $1,5000 per contract—10 times smaller than the ES margin.
Execution Plan Example:
Place Buy Limit Order at 5900.00.
Set Stop Loss below the entry, maintaining a 1:3 reward-to-risk ratio.
Take partial profits or adjust stop losses as the price approaches 6080.00 for conservative traders or 6205.75 for aggressive targets.
7. Conclusion: A Fresh Perspective on USD and Equity Futures
By introducing the USD Proxy and applying it to S&P 500 Futures, traders gain a powerful tool to assess market dynamics. This cross-asset approach—spanning fiat and crypto—bridges the gap between traditional and modern financial metrics, offering unparalleled insights.
The adjusted S&P 500 Futures chart neutralizes currency distortions, revealing the market's true movements. Whether identifying divergences, refining trading strategies, or uncovering hidden opportunities, this method empowers traders to approach the market with clarity and precision.
As markets evolve, tools like the USD Proxy demonstrate the importance of integrating diverse assets to stay ahead in a complex trading environment.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Cross
📉 The "Death Cross" PatternDeath Cross, 5 Key things to watch
The "death cross" is a market chart pattern that occurs when a short-term moving average falls below a long-term moving average,
indicating recent price weakness. It is often studied using the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The death cross pattern is more reliable
when confirmed by other indicators such as high trading volume or momentum indicators like the MACD.
These indicators can help confirm that a major trend change is occurring.
🟠 The Death Cross (convergence of moving averages) is a strong indication of a sell-off
🟠 If volume increases after the Death Cross, the downward trend is likely to strengthen
🟠 If price is above moving averages, strong volumes may be needed to suggest a turnaround
🟠 If price is below moving averages, the selling pressure is likely to be severe and any upward corrective moves will face strong resistance
🟠 The first sign of selling pressure weakens as moving averages start to turn upward
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Golden Cross
GOLDEN CROSS
1. A golden cross occurs when a faster-moving average crosses a slower moving average.
2. Specifically, you need the 50-period and 200-period simple moving averages.
3. Anything other than these two periods and it is not a true golden cross.
4. The golden cross is a powerful trade signal, but this does not mean you should buy every cross of the 50-period moving average and the 200.
5. You will need to bring a higher level of sophistication to the setup, to ensure you are buying into a trade with real opportunity.
THE THREE STAGES OF A GOLDEN CROSS
1. As the downtrend in the stock market ends, the short-term 50-day moving average moves below the 200- day moving average.
2. In a crossover, when a stock recovers, the short-term moving average crosses over the long-term moving average. That’s where the term golden cross comes from, when the two average lines cross on a chart.
3. In a crossover, when a stock recovers, the short-term moving average crosses over the long-term moving average. That’s where the term golden cross comes from, when the two average lines cross on a chart.
THE THREE STAGES OF A GOLDEN CROSSPROFIT POTENTIAL OF THE GOLDEN CROSS PATTERN
A. DEATH CROSS
1. One option is to wait for a cross of the 50 back below the 200 as another selling opportunity.
2. The only issue with this approach is you are likely to give back a sizeable portion of your profits since moving averages are a lagging indicator.
B. PRIOR SUPPORT
1. What you can also do is look for areas of resistance overhead which will act as selling opportunities for longs that have been holding the stock for a long period of time.
2. A caveat to this strategy is that the stock may consolidate and push higher.
C. TRENDLINE BREAK
1. If the golden cross is real, the signal will likely generate a strong buying opportunity.
2. You can then use the first couple of reactionary lows to create an uptrend line.
3. You then hold the stock until this trendline is broken.
A Death Cross for Bitcoin?I see many people speaking about "The Death Cross" that's just appearing on the Bitcoin chart. The Cross brings some fear with it, and I can't just understand why, since it's not really a concerning one. But let me explain.
A Death Cross is only strong and meaningful as long as Both SMA (50 & 200) are pointing to the downside - both SMA need to be declining. Many Traders do also Check the Volume. If the Volume is Rising with the Cross, its more likely Valid, if the Volume is declining it less likely.
Personally, I don't really use the Volume to Confirm. I check the direction of Both SMA.
Edit: In my Opinion the Death as well as the Golden-Cross are really really bad Indicators since they're lagging really hard.
Don't get fooled!
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This Analysis is not intended to be investment advice. Always DYOR.
The SMA cross strategy In this educational idea I’ll cover the SMA cross strategy. I’ll will cover how it works, what my peripheral values are and how it can work for you.
The Simple moving averages cross strategy is a strategy where you buy something on a buy-signal of the indicator and sell it on a target, for example if you had 5% profit.
What is a moving average? A moving average is an indicator which helps you smooth out “noise” in a graph. The indicator is based on a formula you can find the formula below. You can add values to the indicator, let’s say you want a MA of 9 candles you just add a value of 9. You usually use more than one MA, I prefer using a 7 candle MA and a 25 candle MA. The thing I like on moving averages is that you can use them in any time frame.
What is a buy signal? A buy signal is created when the long moving averages (in my case the 25 candle MA) gets underneath the short one (in my case the 7 candle MA). When that happens a buy signal is created. When the opposite occurs it’s a sell order.
How to determine a target. Your goal is to make money, but how can you make as much money as possible with this strategy. You have to determine a goal, so an exit-position. Your exit-position is the hardest thing of this strategy, but you can use an average of what happened before. If the average of positive “breakouts” is for example 5% profit you can use 5% profit as target.
How to use a SMA strategy to make you money. Not all the SMA crosses will lead to profit, most of them are even false “breakouts”. So before you buy something on a buy-signal you have to wait a few seconds and watch what the price will do, when it goes up you buy, when it does nothing of goes down you do nothing. If you want to make money using this strategy you have to set a stop-loss, I recommend to always set a stop-loss not only for this strategy. You can keep your stop-loss really close to your buy order.
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