Revealing My Top Gold Trading Secrets for Huge Profits!In this video, I reveal my top trading secrets for making huge profits in gold trading (XAU/USD). This educational content will cover key technical analysis techniques and strategies that I frequently use in my charts, as well as valuable insights into trading mindset and proper risk management. Let's unlock the potential of your trading skills together!
Technical Approach:
In this educational segment, we'll focus on the core technical analysis principles that I use to make informed trading decisions. Here's a detailed breakdown of my approach:
Identifying the Trend:
Uptrends and Downtrends: Learn how to recognize market trends using higher highs and higher lows for uptrends, and lower highs and lower lows for downtrends.
Trendlines: Use trendlines to connect the highs and lows of price movements, helping to identify the direction of the trend and potential reversal points.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Support Levels: Identify areas where the price tends to find support as it falls, acting as a floor preventing further decline.
Resistance Levels: Identify areas where the price tends to find resistance as it rises, acting as a ceiling preventing further ascent.
Historical Price Action: Use past price movements to pinpoint key support and resistance levels that the market respects.
Liquidity Zones (LQZ):
Definition: Liquidity zones are areas on the chart where there is a high concentration of trading activity, often leading to significant price movements.
Identification: Learn how to spot these zones using volume profiles, order flow analysis, and historical price action.
Trading Strategy: Use liquidity zones to identify potential entry and exit points, as they often precede major price moves.
Volume Analysis:
Volume Spikes: Understand how volume spikes can indicate strong buying or selling interest, confirming the validity of price movements.
Volume Trends: Analyze volume trends to gauge the strength of a price trend and anticipate potential reversals.
Entry and Stop Loss Strategies:
Breakouts and Pullbacks: Enter trades on confirmed breakouts above resistance or below support, or on pullbacks to key levels within a trend.
Trailing Stop Loss: Implement a trailing stop loss to lock in profits as the trade moves in your favor, adjusting the stop loss level as the price progresses.
Mini Lessons: Mindset:
Patience and Discipline:
Patience: Wait for the right trading setups that meet your criteria, avoiding impulsive decisions.
Discipline: Stick to your trading plan and rules, even when the market becomes volatile or unpredictable.
Emotional Control:
Stay Calm: Keep your emotions in check to avoid making irrational decisions based on fear or greed.
Mindfulness: Practice mindfulness techniques to remain focused and calm, especially during stressful trading situations.
Proper Risk Management:
Position Sizing:
Risk Per Trade: Limit the amount of capital you risk on any single trade, typically 1-2% of your trading account.
Position Size Calculation: Calculate your position size based on the distance to your stop loss and your risk tolerance.
Risk-Reward Ratio:
Target Ratio: Aim for a risk-reward ratio of at least 2:1, meaning your potential profit should be at least twice your potential loss.
Trade Evaluation: Evaluate each trade based on its risk-reward ratio before entering, ensuring it aligns with your trading strategy.
By incorporating these technical strategies and mindset principles, you can enhance your trading performance and increase your chances of success in the gold market. Stay tuned for more educational content and trading insights!
Demandandsupplyzones
Mastering Fibonacci Retracement :Navigating Bitcoin's VolatilityMastering Fibonacci Retracement :Navigating Bitcoin's Volatility
Navigating the volatile landscape of Bitcoin trading can be a daunting task for both novice and experienced traders alike. However, equipped with the right tools, traders can identify potential support and resistance levels, make informed decisions, and capitalize on market movements. One such tool that has stood the test of time is the Fibonacci retracement tool, a staple in the arsenal of many traders due to its uncanny ability to forecast potential price reversals with remarkable accuracy.
Understanding Fibonacci Retracement
Fibonacci retracement is based on the idea that markets will retrace a predictable portion of a move, after which they will continue to move in the original direction. The concept draws from the Fibonacci sequence, a series of numbers where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, and so on). In trading, these numbers are translated into percentage levels that traders use to identify potential reversal points on price charts.
Key Levels to Watch
The most commonly used Fibonacci retracement levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%. These percentages represent potential support and resistance levels where the price of an asset like Bitcoin could experience a reversal or consolidation. The 61.8% level, often referred to as the "golden ratio," is particularly noteworthy for its reliability in predicting price movements.
Applying Fibonacci to Bitcoin Trading
When applying Fibonacci retracement levels to Bitcoin's price action, traders often look for significant highs and lows to place their retracement lines. From there, the tool provides a visual representation of potential areas where the price may stall or reverse. For instance, during a downtrend, a retracement to a higher Fibonacci level like 61.8% could indicate a potential area of resistance where traders might consider taking profits or entering short positions.
The Significance of the 78.6% Level
Recent discussions among traders have highlighted the 78.6% retracement level as a crucial point for Bitcoin, suggesting that reaching this level often precedes significant corrections. This phenomenon underscores the importance of Fibonacci levels in anticipating market movements, allowing traders to adjust their strategies accordingly.
Real-world Application
Consider Bitcoin's historic rally and subsequent corrections. Traders have observed that significant pullbacks often align with key Fibonacci levels. For example, during a bullish phase, if Bitcoin's price retraces to the 61.8% or 78.6% levels before bouncing back, this could be seen as a strong signal for trend continuation.
Conclusion
The Fibonacci retracement tool is more than just a mathematical curiosity; it's a reflection of human psychology and market sentiment. By identifying levels where price action may change direction, traders can make more informed decisions, manage risk more effectively, and potentially increase their chances of success in the market.
As with any trading tool, it's important to use Fibonacci retracements in conjunction with other indicators and analysis methods to validate potential trading signals. Remember, no tool can predict market movements with absolute certainty, but by understanding the tendencies and patterns, traders can navigate the Bitcoin market with greater confidence. BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P
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Support and Resistance- Flipping Roles⚡In simple terms, support is a level where demand overcomes supply, while resistance is a level where supply overcomes demand. In the market, different types of traders participate, and I have broadly categorized them into four groups based on their behavior.
⚡You may have heard that once a support level is broken, it tends to act as a resistance level, and vice versa. This phenomenon occurs because the roles of support and resistance flip, influenced by the psychology of traders at these levels.
⚡Let's illustrate this with an example. Consider Group A, a set of buyers who bought a stock at 80. The stock price rises to 100 but faces some resistance. At this point, Group B, consisting of short sellers, enters the market and starts selling the stock near 100, with their stop-loss orders placed just above 100. Thus, there is supply present at this level.
⚡The price consolidates within a narrow range and eventually breaks out above 100. Group A is delighted as they bought at a good price, but Group B becomes unhappy. Some members of Group B exit the trade as their stop-loss orders get triggered, while others continue to hold in hope of a favorable outcome.
⚡Now, another group of traders, Group C, known as breakout traders, becomes active above 100. Their buy orders, combined with the buy-stop orders from Group B, add momentum to the upward movement, pushing the price up to 110.
⚡As the buying pressure eases, and short-term traders take profits, the market starts to pull back, eventually reaching the old resistance area around 100.
⚡Many pullback traders look for buying opportunities near this level. Additionally, members of Group B, who shorted at 100, realize their mistake and start buying to close their short positions at breakeven. Some of them also reverse their positions. Other buyers who were waiting on the sidelines also start entering the market. All these buy orders create a strong demand.
⚡Notice that once there was significant supply at 100 and now there is significant demand. If this demand is substantial enough, the price resumes its upward movement, illustrating how changes in market sentiment impact a participant's psychology and consequently affect the nature of support and resistance levels.
⚡The reverse is true for how a support level, once broken down, turns into a resistance level.
⚡I hope you found this tutorial helpful. Please stay tuned for more educational content in the future. Feel free to show your support by liking this post.
Disclaimer: Practical knowledge
📊 DBR & Demand Zone📍 What is Drop Base Rally in Trading?
The drop base rally pattern in technical analysis is a chart pattern that appears when the market falls, then enters a period of sideways price action, and finally, shows explosive upward movements. Market makers open buy orders from demand zones to have a long position in trading. This is some kind of study for technical analysis known as DBR. These patterns are the basis of supply/demand logics. In the showcased example, after a steep drop, the sale finally stopped, leaving bulls the option of buying at lower prices. However, purchasing power at that point was insufficient to reverse the market. Instead, the market starts moving sideways because neither buyers nor sellers could defeat the other party. Eventually, the price action entered the demand zone that was formed and recovered back to higher prices.
📍 How to identify Drop Base Rally pattern?
The drop base rally pattern contains three waves. As shown in the figure above.
🔹 Bearish wave: Drop
🔹 Sideways wave: Base.
🔹 Bullish wave (rally).
📍 Demand Zone
A demand zone is a price level where a significant amount of buying interest or demand for an asset is believed to exist. Traders use demand zones as potential areas of support where buying pressure could increase, causing the price to rebound or reverse. As shown in the example above, we entered a long trade once the price action reached that demand zone, with the entry being inside the zone and the stop loss below the zone.
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ECONOMIC CYCLE & INTEREST RATESHello traders and future traders! The state of an economy can be either growing or shrinking. When an economy is growing, it typically leads to improved conditions for individuals and businesses. Conversely, when an economy is shrinking or experiencing a recession, it can have negative consequences. The central bank works to maintain a stable level of inflation and support moderate economic growth through the management of interest rates.
What is an economic cycle?
An economic cycle refers to the fluctuations or ups and downs in economic activity over a period of time. These cycles are typically characterized by periods of economic growth and expansion, followed by periods of contraction or recession. Economic cycles are often measured by changes in gross domestic product (GDP) and other economic indicators, such as employment, consumer spending, and business investment.
Economic cycles can be caused by a variety of factors, including changes in monetary and fiscal policy, shifts in consumer and business confidence, and changes in global economic conditions. Economic cycles can also be influenced by external events, such as natural disasters or political instability.
Understanding economic cycles is important for businesses, governments, and individuals, as it helps them anticipate and prepare for changes in the economy and make informed decisions about investment, hiring, and other economic activities.
How is an economic cycle related to interest rates?
Interest rates can be an important factor in the economic cycle . During a period of economic expansion, demand for credit typically increases, as businesses and consumers borrow money to make investments and purchases. As a result, interest rates may rise to control the demand for credit and prevent the economy from overheating. Higher interest rates can also encourage saving, which can help to balance out the increased spending that often occurs during an economic expansion.
On the other hand, during a period of economic contraction or recession, demand for credit tends to decline, as businesses and consumers become more cautious about borrowing and spending. In response, central banks may lower interest rates to stimulate demand for credit and encourage economic activity. Lower interest rates can also make borrowing cheaper and more attractive, which can help to boost spending and support economic growth.
Overall, the relationship between interest rates and the economic cycle can be complex and dynamic, and the direction and magnitude of changes in interest rates can depend on a variety of factors, including economic conditions, inflation expectations, and the goals and objectives of central banks and other policy makers.
I hope you leant something new today!
SP500 Fib Modeling IIn physics, when charged particles are fired at double slit, chances are they will leave 2 marks as they would go through 2 slits. Those waves of uncertainty crash into each other and interfere, merging and canceling each other out just like any other waves. Then, when an electron's wave hits the back screen, the particle finally has to decide where to land. Slowly, electron by electron, the wave pattern builds up. Our expectations can be evaluated by checking the results. But results can change by simply witnessing the process closeup. An intervention of consciousness can alter reality. Particle as we know started behaving like wave as if they were aware of being watched. So each time particle is fired, it becomes a wave of potential as it approaches the slits and through the quantum world of infinite possibilities finds its final destination. As a result we get interference pattern , the mark that commonly shared by targets of particles after going through such chaotic journey. The electron can go through both slits as wave of potential, then it collides back forming particle hitting the layer! Act of additional measuring by repeating experiment can make the particle act normal again with two stripes pattern. From this I'd outline the sharp changes in behavior as well as shift in entity itself. The collapse of wave function caused by particle's awareness of ongoing surveillance can in some way mean that matter is a derivative from consciousness. And these are the building blocks of universe, where things can simply appear and vanish without evident reason.
Removed irrelevant fibs:
Fibonacci Ratios found in regular Retracement as well as TimeFibs fit the parameters of Wave Function. The overlap of Golden Ratio with real life example of interference pattern formed by two slits using regular white light as a source.
I was pleased to acknowledge that Fibonacci numbers with its known features are also applicable in Quantum Mechanics, when we're dealing with the odds, probabilities and forecasting. This observation actually adds more credibility to FIBS and explains my long fascination over price behaving differently near fibs in one way or the other.
Wave-particle duality is an example of superposition. That is a quantum object existing in multiple states at once. An electron, for example, is both ‘here’ and ‘there’ simultaneously. It’s only once we do an experiment to find out where it is that it settles down into one or the other.
Today we know that this ‘quantum entanglement’ is real, but we still don’t fully understand what’s going on. Let’s say that we bring two particles together in such a way that their quantum states are inexorably bound, or entangled. One is in state A, and the other in state B.
The Pauli exclusion principle says that they can’t both be in the same state. If we change one, the other instantly changes to compensate. This happens even if we separate the two particles from each other on opposite sides of the universe. It’s as if information about the change we’ve made has traveled between them faster than the speed of light.
This makes quantum physics all about probabilities. We can only say which state an object is most likely to be in once we look. These odds are encapsulated into a mathematical entity called the wave function. Making an observation is said to ‘collapse’ the wave function, destroying the superposition and forcing the object into just one of its many possible states.
Arranging the fractal by phases with fibonacci on both price and time scales is an alternative approach to the known quantum mechanical solutions to finance, thus relying on a postulate that quantum mechanics applies to finance unchanged. For market prices, it is important to note that nowadays we are looking at a lot of noise when handling them. In financial markets we are dealing with infinite possibilities emerging patterns which also creates chaotic process just like in subatomic levels. On molecular scale, we know that elements don't just react without a reason. It can bond with other elements if it shares corresponding properties of valence. When it matches the electron configuration, it bonds into new compound generating geometric shapes like hexagon of new chemical structure, like shapes of puzzles unite to resemble a bigger picture.
Similarly, as market makes a move, it determines next candle's dimensions. If previous candle hypothetically had different properties, then the current candle wouldn't be the same it's forming right now. I'd say even the slightest change can significantly delay or change targets and outcomes. Price action also rhymes with time cycles. Sometimes these cycles of different wavelengths overlap resulting in breakout with short-term rapid growth rate.
To get an approximate idea of where price is heading to, we must carry out a thought process. Let's assume market is heading up. We know that chances of a rapid pump to establish new ATH in one day is very low. We assume it's rather going to start with gradual growth when breaking from cyclic entangled side trend. Imagine the candles are made out of metal string so you could touch it and play with it according to all laws of physics just like with a regular piece of metal wire in real life. Now imagine just grabbing the right end of it and pulling upwards to simulate shape unfolding into direction of your target... Nevertheless, various fragments of final structure would still carry its systematic shapes which were originally determined by the market.
In both cases these is a psychological effect, almost convincing me, that the market path is predetermined by trajectories of EMA with intermediate arguments rather than by short-term direction of a wave a spike and collapses. And it's not about the overall performance of the economy or any other factors, market simply derives the path on the go like in multi-universe concept.
The fact that >90% of people are losing is a result of sticking to the current market information noise and news. chances are market simply would have already reacted to the narrative even long before entries were placed. That's how fast things are happening. This happens when market is correcting to other "upcoming" more dominant arising fundamentals whether they are positive or negative. The curve of information distribution speed is vital concept which contributes to ignoring the naive need for information backup behind price moves. Many serious participants of the market are deaf to news. Whatever we receive, we must acknowledge that by the time we receive the news, millions of people already digested those them provided by some media company with their own angle in it. News trading is a very hysterical thing to do, unless you are among the first wave of investors possessing the information from real insiders. The lots and billions of entries in favor for the narrative are already locked in and they are waiting for the last remaining crowd to jump in to be kill them at 5th wave. Considering an accumulation should be after completing a fall. We must feel comfortable at places where the rest still feel fear in order to be able to beat them off due to averaging trades without blind faith.
Modern approaches to stock pricing in quantitative finance are typically founded on the Black-Scholes model and the underlying random walk hypothesis. Empirical data indicate that this hypothesis works well in stable situations but, in abrupt transitions such as during an economical crisis, the random walk model fails and alternative descriptions are needed. For this reason, several proposals have been recently forwarded which are based on the formalism of quantum mechanics. In this paper we apply the SCoP formalism, elaborated to provide an operational foundation of quantum mechanics, to the stock market. We argue that a stock market is an intrinsically contextual system where agents' decisions globally influence the market system and stocks prices, determining a nonclassical behavior. More specifically, we maintain that a given stock does not generally have a definite value, e.g., a price, but its value is actualized as a consequence of the contextual interactions in the trading process. This contextual influence is responsible of the non-Kolmogorovian quantum-like behavior of the market at a statistical level. Then, we propose a sphere model within our hidden measurement formalism that describes a buying/selling process of a stock and shows that it is intuitively reasonable to assume that the stock has not a definite price until it is traded. This result is relevant in my opinion since it provides a theoretical support to the use of quantum models in finance. Fibonacci ratios are another way of exposing the probability of future prices in respect to timing.
Even when overwhelming majority of people expect growth after good news with obvious positive factors, price can fall and expectations of millions can easily be shattered by market in an action. Identifying patterns is a part of making sense of out of randomness. There is a logical parallel: If an observer can collapse wave function, same way the collective consciousness of market crashed the wave function of uptrend. This happens and quite often.
Some people incorporate prime numbers to their trading systems. But of course I'd stick with fibonacci, because golden ratio governs chaos behind price swings as well as its time cycles derived from coordinates of fractal peaks and bottoms. I put tremendous amount of accent on raw data of candles. It doesn't just stop where it does, it is predestined to do it due to chain of cause and effect loop. New formed candles of particular metrics is a direct result of nearest historic candles and mathematical relationship shared between all of them. The way things are curved in nature and space, even exponential growth can be perfectly simulated with fibonacci sequence. Fib ratios are credible as they share and fit into concepts from fractal geometry and chaos theory as well as describing behavior of complex processes. A line simple line can be used to link of some recent buildup of systematic patterns to similar historic fractal echoing back into present.
A properly observed shape can tell more words than any news article, as it passes through the phases of cycle. By documenting nature of short-term swings we can evaluate how market is determining the most efficient price having continuous stream of information, different opinions, events and other factors on the background can directly or indirectly shape the value of an asset. Patterns can tell whether collective psyche of the market feels distrust or approval of ongoing narrative and world trends are unfolding.
It's quite easy to say "buy the dip" or "buy at the finishing stage of falling". It sure takes a good combination of decisiveness, discipline and being able to stick to your plan. But how can we be so sure that price will follow the direction after entry. To answer that question, I'd monitor the security with BSP - "Buying & Selling Pressure".
During selloff SP is obviously over BP. We wait till SP loses momentum and declines while BP begins grow. This way we got ourselves interested.
Then we examine the hypothetical entry by chain of logical confirmations.
We actually need to wait for Buying Pressure to cross over Selling Pressure.
IF bpma > spma is true, confirm with:
volume > ta.ema(volume, 20) or ta.atr(10) > ta.atr(10)
ta.ema(ohlc4, 13) >= ta.ema(ohlc4, 13) and ta.ema(ohlc4, 5) >= ta.ema(ohlc4, 8) and ta.ema(ohlc4, 5) < ta.ema(ohlc4, 8)
bpma > bpma and ta.crossover(close, ta.vwma(close, 13))
stoploss = close - average(bpma, spma)
If all of the conditions are met in a row, wait for correction to complete, see the Selling Pressure falling and enter with the next green candle. Meeting just 1 of these conditions would technically push me into placing a long order. However, I wouldn't do it without fabric of PriceTime scales interconnected with candle data by fibonacci ratios. Refracted EMA can also be a tool of choice to determine the levels support and resistance. Personally I'd go with fibonacci, because they are based on raw chart data instead of averaging with MA's and its derivatives.
Trading concept- Absorption of DemandMyth: If the price approaches a level repeatedly, and gets rejected from it, this means that the level is very strong.
Reality: After each touch, the level becomes weaker and weaker due to the absorption of the residual orders.
Underlying logic:
1. Whenever the price keeps approaching a certain level, there are pending buy orders which are waiting to be filled.
2. Every time the price comes back to this level, a certain amount of orders gets absorbed.
3. More the price approaches that level, the lesser unfilled order remains.
4. Hence, ultimately all the orders get absorbed and we see a breakout/breakdown of that level.
Disclaimer: This is NOT investment advice. This post is meant for learning purposes only. Invest your capital at your own risk.
Happy learning. Cheers!
@johntradingwick