EURNZD - A Top-Down Tutorial (ICT)In this video I go through how I perform a top-down analysis and zone in on exactly where I am in price action in order to source for the next high-probability trade. IF there is none, then we stay out until more clues are provided. We DO NOT want to chase price and get in on consolidative and manipulative price action. We want to be hunters, not sheep.
- R2F
Eurnzd!!
How I Perform My Analysis (ICT Concepts)This video is for educational purposes, but feel free to enjoy the analysis using ICT Concepts.
I had trouble uploading this a couple of days ago, but finally works.
Update on the analysis, price came to a Daily SIBI, but the overall directional bias and target should still be intact.
- R2F
Testing My Forex Trading Strategy My technique that i used to determine whether to buy or sell a currency pair at any given time.
that technique is based on three Fondamental Points :
CCI (convergence /divergence)
Tops / Bottoms
Trendline
Fibo retracement.
For thiis pair , we expacet an strong bearish to dwon level for next weeks approx (3-4 months)
So Lets see the result by testing this time with EUR NZD
For more information how to learn this method ,you can inbox me at any time
When Not To Trade A Currency PairDo you know what it looks like when you don't have a trade? Let's face it, there are a lot of videos that tells you when to place a trade or how to trade, but not when not to trade and that is what I'm showing you in detail today.
I hope you enjoy my mini Ted Talk, I mean mini lesson.
Entries live examplesHere is an update to my previous idea on entries. I kept rambling on and on so this was too big for an update. Since you can't possibly cover the entire subject even in an entire book, let's go with 2 examples live, not in hindsight. They might (probably maybe even) just fail. Maybe I'll start a new idea with more 3-4 new ones, so we can look at entry + getting stopped (-1R) + trailing + target etc.
Or maybe markets start trending a lot and I'm absorbed and can't be bothered posting. I don't know. Don't have a crystal ball.
I want to update this with 2 live examples, and see how they go (probably both lose)
1-
Here is an example where you only need a 15% winrate to make money.
Price sometimes consolidates, stays within a range, and then goes down, at least often enough to breakeven right?
Oh ye this goes beyond entry but basically before analysing much, the "pattern" or "price action" in itself should at least breakeven, it should have a chance to work.
The risk being limited is what matters, like George Soros with the bank of England, he entered where he was close to "being wrong" (without being greedy trying to enter 5 pips from stop), same with Buffett, he enters when things look bad and could be about to turnaround or it could just be "the end" so he enters close to "being wrong". I don't like the words being wrong because this is not what it is, call it instead "trade invalidated". If I say something happens 20% of the time and it happens 20% of them that does not make me wrong 80% of the time, but rather right 100% of the time.
This is something I did not mention before: as far as I, and everyone who isn't a troll, can tell: the price in sideways is random. So it does not matter where you enter in that area. How dense is it to try to catch the "magical perfect entry" in a RANDOM price action? You don't know where when why the price will go. If there was a magical entry then people could trade these sideways and make money, and to my knowledge the only people that do are retail day traders on the internet.
This is not the best setup, but no setup is ever the best anyway so...
Disclaimer: I am short NZDUSD. Net position will be short EURUSD actually XD
But the EURUSD price action was just bad ye I don't know where to enter so it matters. The NZD isn't looking that bad after all. The EURUSD I think goes down, but chart looks disgusting, no way I can tell where to enter. Random sideways in a small area versus random sideways in a giant area. The different is risk to reward.
Find the tool to express your ideas with the best RR. Now there are some added spreads but it's fine, not like I day trade with a stop 3 times the size of the spreads.
And I might rotate back to being short the NZD, I kind of adapt all the time. If I get stopped on EURNZD and I have no good opportunity to short EURUSD or my opinion of it going down diminishes (it's not binary by the way you have to think in probas), and NZDUSD continues down, well in that case I won't be short EURUSD anymore, and might even increase my NZDUSD size (but only when a pullback happens).
So ye that part is binary for me, and for Warren Buffett too by the way:
Me: No pullback I don't buy
WB: No discount, no PE below 10 (or something) = I don't buy. But I don't care about catching the very bottom or having an exact precise entry.
Since Warren Buffett does it that way, and made billions, I think it's safe to say it's ok to do it that way too, even if he traded "investing" markets and we are talking about "hedging" markets here.
2-
FOMC on the 22. Might have to wait until then, or Monday at least (market could move Monday in anticipation).
Here I think the entry matters :p The number might not (oh yes actually it does) but the date does (or more). Odds of it being a coincidence are really low.
Statistically this has absolutely NOT been a coincidence.
Here I'm supposed to emphasize the "been", and go "past performance does not bla bla bla" I mean... If I have to explain this in the first place... If an "individual investor" needs this explained to them, well this is the wrong job for them. This is so trivial.
Ye, the stupid pattern might repeat itself, I'm willing to risk 1 to make ??? 10? If it keeps going? Past bull markets lasted 1.5 - 4 years so statistically I could make 10 or more.
I don't have any clear stats on this pattern, how often do they repeat themselves, would be too simple, anyone with more than 2 fingers and the ability to spell their name and count to 10 would make money. Which is not everyone, USA universities have "special classes" for "high school graduates" that are illiterate and have a lower math level than ravens.
So... with everyone becoming suprisingly dumb, AND the "dumb money" getting interested in the market... my odds of winning and making money go up.
There is much more to take into account, like the FED manipulating markets.
But here the entry matters. Like when you have something that had 1/65 million odds of happening, you can't ignore it. You could say "hey maybe they created this on purpose to trick people"... That isn't a real thing. By experience it does not happen, again, statistically.
FOMC is the 21-22. FX & commodities should move too once "certainty" comes back. Inch'allah things get moving on the 20 (monday), but either way we should go allelujah on the 22. Praised be Yahweh for making some people smart and some people dumb. And Dionysus if things don't work out.
Another beautiful spring example caught in my backtestingHere we have been going down for a while, but in a slow fashion (daily).
So it is slowly accumulating and building up energy before breaking free and taking out all the stop losses that was left during the slow down move.
Here you can see the entry better on the 1H and why I put my entry and SL at these areas:
Taken in March 2017
Here is the daily clearly showing the falling wedge:
And here we can see the POC and imbalance to the left more clearly on the 1H chart:
How to take advantage of a trade multiple times? Check it out!Hi guys!
Just published my very first educational post, I hope you will like it!
This is a trade which I took yesterday and I thought it would be interesting to "dissect" it into 4 steps in order to understand why and when is the "best" moment to buy and/or to sell.
I have incorporated the explanations in my chart.
Please note that this is an "ideal" trade and it doesn't happen like that all the time... but it gives you an idea of how I analyze it.
Feel free to comment/like it if you find it valuable!
EURNZD 15M 3 LITTLE MOUNTAIN 3 LITTLE RIVER STRATEGYThree Little Mountains Rivers Trading Strategy
Again, this strategy doesn’t require any professional trading indicators.
The Three Little Mountains Rivers trading strategy is a pure price action trading strategy that has the potential to reward us instantly. The rules for this setup are pretty simple (sell signals):
First, you need three consecutive symmetrical peaks (swing highs).
The time that passes between the development of each swing high is more or less the same.
Enter a short position once the market turns below the 20% range of the second peak.
Place your protective stop loss above the newly formed swing high.
* It is required that at the top of the last high or low, a candlestick reversal pattern is formed. Whether it's a Hammer , a Hanged man, a Morning or Evening Star , Bullish or Bearish Engulfing , or another pattern.
Basically, we’re trying to anticipate when the third swing high will get formed. If we wait too long, our profit margins will shrink. Read more about swing trading in forex here.
Note* this chart pattern works on the daily chart as much as it works on the lower time frame. We like to trade the Three Little Indians trading strategy on the 5-minute chart.
EURNZD 15M 3 LITTLE INDIAN REVERSAL STRATEGYThree Little Indians Trading Strategy
Again, this strategy doesn’t require any professional trading indicators.
The Three Little Indians trading strategy is a pure price action trading strategy that has the potential to reward us instantly. The rules for this setup are pretty simple (sell signals):
First, you need three consecutive symmetrical peaks (swing highs).
The time that passes between the development of each swing high is more or less the same.
Enter a short position once the market turns below the 20% range of the second peak.
Place your protective stop loss above the newly formed swing high.
* It is required that at the top of the last high or low, a candlestick reversal pattern is formed. Whether it's a Hammer, a Hanged man, a Morning or Evening Star, Bullish or Bearish Engulfing, or another pattern.
Basically, we’re trying to anticipate when the third swing high will get formed. If we wait too long, our profit margins will shrink. Read more about swing trading in forex here.
Note* this chart pattern works on the daily chart as much as it works on the lower time frame. We like to trade the Three Little Indians trading strategy on the 5-minute chart.
The Beauty of patience in Forex trading!The Beauty of patience in forex trading!
Price Went back to restest the 1H Range,
I was looking to buy
around restest,
But no Always patience.
Even at Retests, Look for confluences to enter long or short.
- THINK TWICE BEFORE PULLING THE TRIGGER!
What price Did eventually went
down to the bottom of the range
and broke it towards downside.
Why it went downside?
-Because EURNZD was overall
bias bearish on higher timeframes
BREAK OF RANGE was a new
LOWER HIGH POINT ;)
not a conformation to buy
Charts show you logics, Only trade them.
EURNZD– Sellers are working on potencial sell because...EURNZD– Sellers are working on potencial sell because...
Trend: Strong Sell
Support/Resistance
R3: 1.73495
R2: 1.72749
R1: 1.72124
S1: 1.71437
S2: 1.70602
S3: 1.69815
S4: 1.68599
Price action
Sellers are working on potencial sell because of weak eur currency on the other side. Sellers has to break S1 and then will be even more stronger then, they are now. Nzd currency is same showing good power from overall perspective, which made this currency pair more attractive to trade.
Potencial trade idea
Bulls targets:
T1: 1.72749
T2: 1.73495
Bears targets:
T1: 1.70602
T2: 1.69815
T3: 1.68599
NOTE – We are trading EURNZD via the preferred trading setups
ELITEFXACADEMY
Disclamer1 : We have to wait for a currency pair to trade after news are reliased. This might be a short correction, or price will give us moving dirrection after news are reliased.
Disclaimer2: Martin's views on the Chart analysis is ment as a trading advice for education terms; Education terms include: trading consistency to everyone who is reading this blog; for every advance student and for every Elite student who is using this analysis for managing his equity by Elite strategy and custom indicator. This analysis is understandable and transparent for all Elite students. This is a free content which is based from Academy in term of transparency to support and following progress to everyone. We know that there is always possible way that market can pull you out even when you follow our analysis blog and advice for a trade. We don't publish where you have to have your risk management – Stop Loss, because, it would not be fair to Elite members, who learned this techniques in our Elite course.
EURNZD WYCKOFF SCHEMATICS EXAMPLEHello traders,
we would like to share some value knowledge, about structure based mostly on Wyckoff schematics. As an example u have marked up few areas identify by us on multiple TF to help u deeper understanding about markets and printed structure itself. Please, scroll up chart to see multiple examples of accumulation and distribution schematics. Hopefully this will help u get some breakthrough in your trading journey.
God bless u all.
EW ANALYSIS: EURNZD In A Big Three-Wave Corrective RallyHello traders! Today we will talk about EURNZD which has pretty clear pattern.
When using the EW, everyone can count up to five, but only few analysts have the right approach and this experience can only be gained through multi-year practice.
Well, looking at EURNZD, we can clearly see a big impulsive five-wave drop away from 1.7930 highs into a wave A, which means that the trend is currently bearish, but before a bearish continuation, EURNZD must first finish a big three-wave a-b-c corrective rally in wave B that can find resistance ideally around 61,8% Fibonacci retracement and around 1.73 – 1.74 levels!
That said, we believe that wave c/B is still missing, which should be made by five waves, so don't be surprised if EURNZD starts to rise sharply in the next few days/weeks. But, you know where is the limit and till then, there's room for 600-700 pips, so maybe would be nice to catch some longs since we have seen a sharp bounce in the last couple of days that can be the beginning of a five-wave rally for wave c/B!
Remember, the major trend remains bearish as long as the price trading below 1.7930 highs! We are currently just observing a bigger correction which may become even more complex, so any earlier sharp decline back to 1.6330 lows would be an indication that correction could be already completed!
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.