How to read mean returns (Expand the indicator)Mean returns is a trend detection and overextension indicator. It oscillates around the value of 0. The mean return line in reality is the orange one as well as the blue one. The difference is in the number of data points into the past that they consider. Since the value of those lines is the expected value of the returns in period t, then if it's over 0 the expectation is that returns will be positive, as previously the price has been trending higher. The opposite being true as well.
Meanwhile, the red and green line represent the expected upwards and expected downwards returns. That means you only take the expected value for the days in which the return was positive or negative accordingly. Therefore, if the mean returns are over the expected upwards returns the price is likely to be overextended, and vice versa.
Other adjustments were made to consider the current candle. This code will remain private, as it took a lot of effort to invent. I hope you are able to understand the math. If you can't, I hope this at least allowed you to read the meaning of the indicator through this.
Explanation
💵THE WORLD IN DEBT💵
☑️The fact that the whole world is in massive Debt that can not be repaid is a buzzphrase that was around for like 20 years already.
20 years passed and nothing bad has happened, so what to worry about? In fact an entire political and economic movement called MMT or a modern monetary theory emerged claiming that government debt does not matter and that we can, you guessed it, print as much as we need(kinda)
☑️But the size of the debt itself was never really and issue so long as the government or a big company could service the debts.
That is if their cashflow was positive enough to cover the interest payments on the debt. Now however, as the FED is raising rates, this is an issue.
☑️And its not the USA who’s pile of debt we need to be worried about(they are borrowing in the currency they can print themselves, remember?) but rather the rest of the world and the companies. The majority of developing countries don’t have the internal capital required for development, so they need to borrow on the international financial markets in Dollars. And these counties are now facing a perfect storm of a higher cost of new borrowings in Dollars, lower revenues from foreign trade due to recession(and yes we are in a recession, Wake up) and the massive energy and food costs due to the war in Ukraine and the problems caused by the supply chain crisis.
☑️Most big public companies aren’t doing great either. The share of listed companies with the debt servicing costs higher than the profits is now more than 25% and if we exclude the accounting and financial engineering shenanigans, it is save to say that this share is close to 30%.
☑️So the third of the economy is outright insolvent. Multiple countries will either default soon or will at least be plunge into civil and economic unrest and go the way of Sri-Lanka, Pakistan and others… And Jerome Powell said that he aint stopping and that the Fed funds rate should go up by at least 2 percentage points more. So instead of the collapse of the USA, we are likely to see a chain reaction debt crisis In the rest of the world unless the FED changes its mind…
I Hope you guys learned something new today✅
Wish you all Best Of Luck👍
😇And may the odds be always in your favor😇
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Flag breakout: A practicalFlag breakout is seen where a sudden spike in prices is seen and after this sudden increase bulls who have entered earlier start exiting thier existing position and as such a consolidation occurs as can be seen in the shown chart. This Spike ( POLE ) and the consolidation ( FLAG ) gives rise to a fresh spike in prices once the consolidation in finished and fresh investors start entry in the stock. This pattern is a logical explanation to consolidation theory.
Happy Trading :)
📚EDUCATION: THE BASICS OF TRADING EXPLAINED📚
Hello, Traders!
The basics of what it takes to be a successful trader are simple and obvious
Yet daily, I see traders who fail at one or multiple KEY points that sink their performance and they keep losing accounts even though these people do have the understanding of the market that would have been sufficient enough for them to be profitable if they followed the basic rules. Trading is as much about pattern recognition and capacity for abstract thinking as it is about the personality type, self-discipline, and specific mindset.
The lucky few are born fit for trading, but others might train themselves.
Below, is the breakdown of the basics behind the day trading!
✅ TRADING IS A BUSINESS NOT GAMBLING
99% of the new traders have unrealistic expectations of the kind of returns trading might deliver. To make matters worse, they do not realize that it will take years of trial and error before they can make trading Their only source of income.
These delusions make the newbies treat trading like gambling. To AVOID this, please follow these 4 easy steps:
🔥SET AND KEEP YOUR RISK-REWARD.
I recommend risking no more than 1% of the deposit per each trade, which also implies using a variable lot size for every trade, so that no matter the SL
size in pips, or the pair you are trading, the dollar value of the RIKS remains the same with each trade. That way, you are in full control of the risks you
are taking.
🔥DO NOT GO ALL IN.
Sounds obvious, but I’ve seen it so many times. New traders, who lost 70% of the account, GO ALL IN on one trade that they think might help them
recover the balance. That is NEITHER a way to trade, nor a way to learn. Slowly losing your account while learning how to trade, is simply a fee that you
are paying the market for your education. Accept it or fail.
🔥PROTECT CAPITAL=USE SL
I can’t stress this enough and I BEG YOU to use SL. Do NOT enter the trade thinking that if the SL level that you had in mind is hit you will close
manually. You will NOT close the position, and the longer you hold it the more is the temptation to wait a bit more because it seems that the reversal is
coming soon.
🔥CUT LOSSES
Set a daily loss limit. For example, you can Ban yourself from trading for the rest of the day if you lost more than 3 trades in a row. You will enter what
is called a tilt most likely, and you will NOT be productive that day. The same goes for a week. Lost more than 10% of the account in a week? Next week
NO TRADING for you. Watch the market passively, or trade on the demo! By the way, That can be helpful even for professional traders too!
✅KEEPING A COOL HEAD IS KEY
The ideal trader is the one who can set all emotions aside as a robot would, while simultaneously keeping the versatility of the human mind and the intuition, that the machines lack(yet). It is of utmost importance for the new traders to understand that being right about the direction but entering too early or too late is the same as being WRONG because the result will be a LOSS.
Here is how to keep cool:
🔥CONTROL YOUR EMOTIONS.
Both euphoria and a panic attack are your enemies so the more detached you are, the better. Emotions are for the casino, and we are doing business
here, remember?
🔥AVOID FOMO( FEAR OF MISSING OUT)
That one applies mostly to the trades that you are not so sure about, but still want to take them, in fear of not making money. And the early entries are
determined by FOMO too( what if the price does not reach my limit order, and the trade plays out well, but without ME?)
FOMO is Incredibly counterproductive, don't let it control you!
🔥DON’T FOLLOW OTHERS
Avoid herd mentality! 99% of traders lose money, so doing what everyone does inevitably lands you in the 99% category.
🔥BUILD A WATCH LIST
A LOT of the beginners try to PREDICT behavior of the particular instrument that they decided to trade for some reason, instead of going through the
pairs looking for a ready setup that you KNOW works. The former approach leads to finding patterns, key levels, and setups that just aren’t there.
Naturally, the result of trading these is an inevitable LOSS.You should Build a watchlist big enough for your to have a choice, and go through it at
regular intervals, looking for opportunities but NOT INVENTING them.
✅ CONSISTENCY OVER BOOM-BUST STYLE
Consistent trading is the only way to make trading a reliable source of income. Slow but steady gains always beat leap-like boom-bust performance.
The psychological pressure of the latter will most likely break you sooner or later, and who needs gray hair in their 30es anyway?
That is how you achieve consistency:
🔥FIND A STRATEGY
Do the research on multiple trading strategies and pick those that you understand and that are compatible with your personality.
🔥USE PAPER TRADING AND BACKTESTING
To select which strategy is right for you, use backtesting to see how the strategy performed in the past. And use paper trading to see how the strategy
works in real-time.Once you chose the strategy, go back to paper trading and backtesting to polish it.
🔥TRACK YOUR TRADES
Keeping track of your trading! Working with that data is an invaluable tule for the trader, that helps identify your strengths and weaknesses, while also
helping you notice patterns in your trading that would have been left unrecognized otherwise.
🔥FORMALIZE YOUR RULES
Objectivity is KEY for consistent trading because during the rough patches of the market, being sure of your rules helps you stay in the market, waiting
for the tailwind, instead of questioning your strategy or your implementation of it. Create a strict ALGORITHM and follow it step by step. In order to do
that, you need to define every element of your strategy as precisely as possible. For example, a level for you is a daily horizontal level with at least 3
touchpoints, a breakout is valid only if the 4H candle closed above the level, etc...
The less vague the terms, the fewer emotions will be involved in deciding whether to enter the trade or not.
❗️ IN CONCLUSION: If you want to become a trader, remember:
1- It will take YEARS to learn how to trade.
2- You will lose a TON of money in the process
3- You will FAIL with 95% probability.
4-Realistic returns from trading are WAY lower than you think
5-BUT when you succeed, you will set yourself free!
Please SUPPORT This Idea By A LIKE and COMMENT!
Be like Jake *educational material*
*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management*
My team has decided to use a recent failed trade as an example of the importance of stop losses. Here @SimplyShowMeTheMoney you may have noticed that we place stop losses and stop profit losses on the majority of our trades. If we ever post a trade without a stop loss please understand that we're waiting for further information and that we have long-term confidence in the trade and are not worried about the short-term price action in-between.
To demonstrate the importance of stop losses we must first introduce you to a successful retail trader by the name of Jake. Our friend Jake has been trading for the past 5 years. Jakes trading strategy is simple: he finds a company that he likes, and he invests his money into it. Jake hits roughly 6 out of 10 of the trades that he places. Jakes 60 percent winning average may sound 'okay' at first but lets say Jake is consistent about managing his take profits and stop-losses. Jake may be losing 40 percent of his trades, but he is able to mitigate most of the risks due to his insane stop-loss precision.
But if you've been in the market long enough and have ever used stop-losses then you can probably recall a time where your trade broke through your stop-loss and then the worst thing possible happens...it shoots off to the moon without you while you watch in disbelief with your jaw dropped down to the floor.
Jake knows this feeling very well. So to lower this risk, Jake locates key price areas on the chart where the stock may be at its weakest and places his stop losses. Doing this helps prevents scenarios like the one above from occuring.
Jake cares about the roof over his head and keeping food in his belly. He cares about the amount of sleep he gets every night. Jake wants to be able to enjoy quality time with his girlfriend without feeling anxious about a trade that was supposed to buy her a ring, but is now worth as little as a ring-pop. That's why Jake uses stop-losses.
Be like Jake.
If you would like to see more, please please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
EURCAD SHARK HARMONIC EXPLANATION EURCAD Shark Harmonic Pattern explained.
- This is a explanation video on how to identify the Shark Pattern along with the target points and stop loss
- Targets range from 30-60 PIPS
As always if you found this idea helpful, please let me know by hitting that like button and/or leaving me a comment below.
Also feel free to share your opinion on this setup, or other setups that you have on your radar for the EURCAD. The more ideas we can generate the more informative these ideas become for newer traders.
~T$
HOW does a Moving Average work? #EZ-Learning by EXPLANATIONHey tradomaniacs and becoming traders,
here some more education for you and especially for those who started trading and heared about that weird thing called Moving Average.
I hope you enjoy it and learn something.
If you need more education just check my videos and posts tagged as education.
Peace and happy learning
Irasor
Trading2ez
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Any questions? Need more? PM me. :-)