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Falsebreakout

How I used Volume Spread Analysis to avoid FOMO trading!As a trader, I often battle with the fear of missing out (FOMO), a common pitfall among traders that can lead to impulsive, unprofitable trades. After reviewing my journal, I determined that chasing breakouts was costing me a significant portion of my account, so I studied Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) to help me reduce my urges. Here is how is used VSA to avoid FOMOing a trade. Before we get started, let's clarify two definitions: Volume: Measures the number of times buyers and sellers exchange 1 unit of an asset at an agreed-upon price. It doesn't inherently indicate whether a trend is bullish or bearish, but rather that a trade has occurred. Low volume suggests that few transactions have taken place because buyers and sellers couldn't agree on price. High volume suggests that buyers OR sellers felt they were getting a bargain at the current price, leading to many transactions. Spread/Range: The difference between the high and low of a candlestick. A narrow spread indicates little variance between what someone is willing to buy for and what someone is willing to sell for. A wide spread suggests that buyers and sellers have significantly different ideas of what the fair price is. In short, Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) interprets the relationship between trading volume and candle spread. When volume and spread agree, they are considered harmonious, and the trend will probably continue. If volume and spread disagree, there is a divergence, and the trend may be weak or could even reverse. In general, there are three main harmonious conditions: Narrowing spread should have narrowing volume. Average spread should have average volume. Widening spread should have widening volume. I spotted a bear flag consolidation on QQQ and decided I would trade the breakout to the downside. I took a break and came back to the chart just after the breakdown had occurred, missing my ideal entry. The candle spread was widening and my first thought was "I have to get in! This thing is free falling!" PAUSE! I reminded myself that I cant make every dollar in the market. If I miss this trade, there will always be another. "Be patient and wait for the market to come back to you." This is the chart after the initial break. What can we observe? QQQ broke the low of day with high volume and a widening red candle. Based on our definitions from earlier, we know that high volume means that buyers or sellers think they are getting a bargain so they are willing to transact as much as they can at current price. Given that price is falling, we can assume that the volume is due to aggressive selling. We remain patient and continue to watch for something to trade against. Next, we see a narrower range candle with a long lower shadow and above average volume. By definition, strong volume with a narrow range is a possible divergence. We know that narrow range candles mean that buyers and sellers generally agree on current price, but why would it close near the highs if the selling was so aggressive? Given that there is a long lower shadow and then a bullish candle close, we can infer that sellers were not willing to sell below $467.89. The buyers absorbed the selling at those prices. Fast forwarding, we notice that the volume and candle size has shrunk back to the average meaning buyers and sellers are in agreeance. The number of people willing to transact is decreasing. We also notice that a small range has formed. Buyers have not stepped in to buy above the previous low of day at $469.35 and the sellers have shown no effort to get back below $467.89. Now we have something to trade against instead of FOMOing in! We will look for a break of this range with increased volume. On the next candle we see bulls break out of the range with aggressive volume and a wide spread candle. Something of note is that the volume on this bull candle is less that the volume of our initial sell candle. If those sellers were still present, wouldn't they be selling at these higher prices and forcing the candle range to be narrow? This shows us that bulls are now in control and the selling from earlier was just a hoax. As we can see, the rest is history. If I FOMOed into the short as I had planned, this trade would have resulted in a loss. Being patient allowed me to realize that there was nothing to miss out on and actually allowed me to find a better trade. Key Notes Always journal your trades and review them Never FOMO into a trade. Be patient and wait for the trade to come to you! You dont need to take every trade to make money in the market. It is okay to miss a trade if it means protecting your account. Volume spread analysis is not 100%, but it can be useful in determining the strength of a trend.
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by Decam9
31
Triangle Pattern Trading: A Trap for NewbiesThe triangle pattern is a popular chart pattern that is often used by technical analysts to identify potential breakout opportunities. However, traders should be aware that the triangle pattern can also be a trap for unsuspecting beginners. Why the Triangle Pattern is a Trap One of the reasons why the triangle pattern can be a trap is that it is a very subjective pattern. There are no hard and fast rules for identifying a triangle pattern, and what one trader might identify as a triangle pattern, another trader might not. Another reason why the triangle pattern can be a trap is that it is a very common pattern. This means that there are many opportunities for traders to trade this pattern, which can lead to overtrading. Overtrading is a common problem for beginners, and it can lead to significant losses. Smart Money Traders and the Triangle Pattern Smart money traders are aware of the fact that the triangle pattern can be a trap for beginners. They will often use this pattern to their advantage by creating false breakouts and trapping beginner traders into losing positions. Here are four examples of how smart money traders use the triangle pattern to trap beginners: NEO: formed a bullish triangle pattern. However, the price broke out of the pattern in a fake breakout and then reversed sharply, trapping many beginner traders who were buying the breakout. RVN: Rformed a symmetrical triangle pattern. The price broke out of the pattern in a fake breakout and then reversed sharply, trapping many beginner traders who were buying the breakout. DYDX: formed a descending triangle pattern. The price broke out of the pattern in a fake breakout and then reversed sharply, trapping many beginner traders who were buying the breakout. TRX: formed a bullish triangle pattern. However, the price broke out of the pattern in a fake breakout and then reversed sharply, trapping many beginner traders who were buying the breakout. How to Avoid the Triangle Pattern Trap There are a few things that traders can do to avoid the triangle pattern trap: Be aware of the subjectivity of the pattern. There are no hard and fast rules for identifying a triangle pattern, so traders should be careful not to get too caught up in trying to identify this pattern. Don't overtrade. The triangle pattern is a very common pattern, which means that there are many opportunities to trade this pattern. Traders should be careful not to overtrade this pattern, as this can lead to significant losses. Be aware of smart money traders. Smart money traders will often use the triangle pattern to their advantage by creating false breakouts and trapping beginner traders into losing positions. Traders should be aware of this and be careful not to fall for these traps. Conclusion The triangle pattern can be a useful tool for identifying potential breakout opportunities. However, traders should be aware that this pattern can also be a trap. By understanding the reasons why the triangle pattern can be a trap, and by taking steps to avoid these traps, traders can protect themselves from significant losses.
Education
by Yaroslav_Krasko
4
The Art of False Breakouts + RSI: COMPOUND! 📉🚀Trading is an intricate game of psychology, and understanding false breakouts can be the key to success. Let's delve into COMP, where false breakouts played a pivotal role in recent price action. 📉🚀 Closer look to Fakeout : Deconstructing False Breakouts False breakouts are like crafty illusions, luring traders into making premature decisions. COMP, a cryptocurrency known for its volatility, recently demonstrated how these maneuvers can shake the market. From False Bottom to False Top COMP first tricked traders with a false breakdown from the lower range, inducing panic. But as if by sleight of hand, it quickly shifted gears, delivering a false breakout from the upper range, catching many off guard. Trading Wisdom: The Lesson Here The case of COMP underscores the need for cautious trading, especially in volatile markets. Recognizing false breakouts can help you avoid unnecessary losses. Strategies involving stop-loss orders and thorough research can be your shield against these tricky moves. Conclusion: Mind the Illusions COMP's recent shenanigans emphasize the significance of identifying false breakouts. This knowledge can give traders a substantial advantage and help them navigate the turbulent waters of crypto trading. 📊 Trading Strategies | 🧠 Psychology | 📈 Price Action | 💡 Insights | 🌐 Cryptocurrency ❗See related ideas below❗ Share your thoughts in the comments! 💚📉💚
Education
by Yaroslav_Krasko
❌ False Breakout PatternsA breakout that failed to proceed past a level, leading to a "false" breakout of that level, is referred to as a "false breakout." One of the most essential price action trading patterns to learn is the false double bottom and double top patterns, as a false-break is frequently a very strong indicator that price may be changing direction or that a trend may soon resume. False breakouts occur in all market scenarios, including trending, consolidating, and counter-trending. Trading Tips To Respect: ✅False breakouts can happen in markets that are trending, range-bound, or going against the trend. Watch for them in all market conditions since they frequently provide insightful hints about the direction the market will take. ✅Trading against a trend can be challenging, but one of the "best" approaches is to watch for a clear false breakout signal from a significant support or resistance level, as in the last example above. ✅False breakouts provide us with a "window" into the "fight" between expert and amateur traders, allowing us to engage in trading alongside them. Trading will appear to you in a different light if you can learn to recognize and trade false breakout patterns. 👤 @AlgoBuddy 📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators ❤️ If you appreciate our work , Please like, comment and follow ❤️
Education
by QuantVue
2
OXY, A TRUE example of FALSE break out !Regardless of what legendary investors (Like Warren Buffett ) or famous traders do, we always should trade our own strategy. OXY was fighting with a strong static resistance and finally lost the battle. We have 9 hits to this static line which shows how powerful it is. False break outs are among the most common traps in trading . Although the concept is very simple , many traders fall simply into the trap just because of lack of patience or weak risk management strategy. Please keep this words in mind and I promise you will be the winner in long term : " Be sure about a break out before jumping into a trade " . True break outs have three conditions: 1. Break out should be done by a strong high volume bullish candle and at least 50 % of body of such candle should be placed above the valid resistance. 2. A pull back to broken resistance and rotation is necessary to be sure about true break out. Please note sometime we may not see a complete pull back ( if there is a support before broken resistance) but who can accept the risk of false break out? 3. Continuation of movement in direction of break out. Occidental Petroleum fulfilled first condition in it's last attempt ( if we close our eyes to volume) with a gap up bullish candle above the resistance. It made also a pull back but no rotation and continuation of the upside movement came after that. It means we had a false break out. I investigated false break outs of a dynamic resistance in my previous publication on BTC and here I showed an example of false break out of static resistance. Regardless of type of resistance (dynamic or static) , concept is the same. True break out setup has been shown on the chart. As you see the concept is very simple. Please keep this concept in mind and believe me you won't regret. Wish you huge profits and good luck.
NYSE:OXYEducation
by SaeedSajedi
5
What are True and False Break Outs ?False Break outs impose considerable loss to traders. How to recognize a false break out? To recognize a false break out we should first learn what is a true break out? In fact,simply, Every break out which is not a true one is a false break out. BTC in it's recent movements shows two beautiful example of false break outs. As shown on the chart, we have a dynamic resistance line with three clear rejections and two false break outs. It means before 1st break out which was 4th rejection BTC had a chance to break out the resistance but it never succeeded. Why? A true break out has three important conditions : 1. first of all, Break out should be done by a strong high volume bullish candle and at least 50 % of body of such candle should be placed above the valid resistance. 2. A pull back to broken resistance and rotation is necessary to be sure about true break out. Please note sometime we may not see a complete pull back ( if there is a support before broken resistance) but who can accept the risk of false break out? 3. Continuation of movement in direction of break out. As we can see, BTC in it's 4th and 5th attempts to break the line was unsuccessful even to fulfill the first condition. Also shown on the chart is what could have been a true break out. Although simple in concept, false break outs are headaches for some traders. What makes traders to fall in the trap of false break outs is not because of complexity of the concept ( As it is very simple ). It is about controlling emotions and psychology. Good luck everybody.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by SaeedSajedi
6
Beware False Breakouts! How To Spot Them...Investors should use basic Technical Analysis for powerful decision making. I see it as a challenge to demonstrate how useful knowledge of one simple pattern can be to identify price reversals. Recognizing this pattern and acting on it will save much money and headache! Both traders and investors need to be on guard for false breakout reversals. Seeing this pattern in action can provide an excellent profit target, entry point, or prevent major drawdown! In this video I look at examples in the Silver ETF AMEX:SLV , Spotify stock NYSE:SPOT , and Forex Euro/Dollar pair FX:EURUSD for false breakouts and what follows. I am excited to make this video for my viewers and for Best of Us Investing!
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by norok
72
FALSE BREAKOUTS | SPOT/AVOID/TRADE THEM LIKE PRO📈📉 FALSE BREAKOUTS | SPOT/AVOID/TRADE THEM LIKE PRO📈📉 How often have you opened a key level breakout trade, and then the price turned against you? False breakout happens quite often and it is a problem for many traders who buy at highs and sell at lows. ❗️Breakout trading is a fairly popular and viable trading strategy. However, some breakouts often turn out to be false. This can be quite frustrating, not to mention that it can often lead to a losing trade. However, in many cases, an experienced trader can analyze the market situation and react to it accordingly. False breakouts can make a profit if you know how to trade them correctly. ⚠️A false breakdown is a situation when the price violates an obvious level, but then suddenly changes direction. When the initial breakout of the level occurs, many traders open a trade in the direction of the breakdown. These traders are trapped when the price reverses, which triggers a series of stop losses. New traders are also entering the market, and this puts additional pressure on the price. This often turns the price into a new trend, the opposite of the initial breakout. A breakout that turns out to be false is a sign of strength in a downtrend or weakness in an uptrend. As you can see, a false breakout can easily cause significant losses for any trader. Some traders develop their entire strategy around trading false breakouts, as this can be a very powerful trading approach. Some of the best trades happen when market players fall into a trap and their stops start to work. ✅How to find patterns of false breakouts? 🟢If you do not learn how to correctly identify false breakouts, you will not be able to trade them profitably. For example, there will be situations when the price returns to the breakout point, and only then continues its movement. 🟢One of the ways to detect false breakouts is to monitor the volume. Real breakouts are usually accompanied by strong indications of trading volume at the time of the breakout. When this volume is absent, there is a higher probability that the breakout will not happen. 🟢Thus, if the trading volume is low or it decreases during the breakout, a false breakout is likely to occur. In contrast, if the volume is large or it increases, a real breakdown is likely. 🟢It is also useful to monitor not only the trading volume but also the price movement on the lower timeframe. In many cases, you will see that the price makes a very sharp pullback on the lower timeframe, which is not visible on the higher timeframe. ✅False Breakout Trap 🔴After all, many trading textbooks say that a breakout can be considered confirmed when a candle closes above the resistance level. However, the price moves in your direction for a while and then turns 180 degrees. As a result, you have a stop loss triggered. 🔴The false breakout trap includes several candlesticks, usually 1-4, that go beyond the key support or resistance level. Such breakouts occur after a strong movement, as the market has reached an important level, but the price momentum still retains its strength. Have you ever been trapped by a false breakout?
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by TopTradingSignals
8
FCPO Trading Strategy for False Breakout and Valid BreakoutPrice downtrend continuation when new day price open inside the previous trading range. Valid breakout = trend continuation Therefore, we use 1min TF to look for entry. 1. Break market structure. 2. EMA 14,50,200 trend. 3. Stochastic 4. Reverse-retest 5. Stoploss 6. TP False breakout = reversal/rejection Use 15min to find entry 1. Entry after 2nd CS close back inside the zone 2. Stoploss 2xATR @1min chart. 3. TP opposite Support / Resistance.
MYX:FCPO1!Education
by ArifHasbollah
FCPO Identify Fake Breakout and How to Trade it?When the price is near the SnR it is where get it will get tricky...either the price want to continue the trend or reverse? The false breakout strategy : 1. Timeframe 15min 2. Identify strong valid SnR 3. Draw the zone by pick the wick and the neck. 4. If price breakout and 2nd CS close inside the zone, it is a false breakout and entry position after 2nd CS close. 5. TP for the false breakout can be the opposite SnR. Valid breakout strategy: Trend continuation 1. Use 15min and 1min chart for confirmation.
MYX:FCPO1!Education
by ArifHasbollah
What Is a Failed Break?A failed break (false breakout) occurs when a price moves through an identified level of support or resistance but does not have enough momentum to maintain its direction. Failed breaks may also signal traders to enter a trade in the opposite direction of the attempted breakout. Since the breakout attempt failed, the price could head the other direction. A throwback is when the price retraces back toward the resistance or support level just broken. A throwback is not a failed breakout. How to detect failed breaks? A failed breakout reveals that there was not enough buying interest to keep pushing the price above resistance or below support. If a security does not see strong volume and substantial price moves supporting the breakout direction, the chance of a false breakout increases. Take a look at the chart and see how the uptrend line is broken with unexpected low trading volume. If there is significantly increased volume on a breakout, the likelihood of a false breakout developing decreases (but is not eliminated). However, a throwback may still occur.
Editors' picks
Education
by BobRivera990
61
Understanding the NFP EU PumpHere are some questions I put out to my community group the other day followed by the answers. The reasoning being the move has been annotated on the chart. Why did price slowly decline prior to NFP? - Price had to decline slightly before NFP to mitigate the impulsive move created earlier in the day. - Price had to stop out break and re-test buyers with a tight stop loss - Price had to lure sellers into the market before NFP Why did price reject the exact box marked before skyrocketing? - Price skyrocketed because it had gathered enough liquidity from stopping out the buyers. - It utilised the previous order block to skyrocket to take out the impulsive sellers before NFP.
Education
by AlkalineFX
EURAUD 15M BIG BEN BREAKOUT TRADING STRATEGYRule #1 Define the London Trading Range We’re going to use the range definition that takes into consideration only the body of the candles, excluding the wicks. Note* this trading rule can be adapted as you get more experienced at reading the price action. This strategy works because the Asia trading range tends to attract buy and sell stops above and below the trading range. The bulk of buying and selling stops becomes an easy target for the smart money. Remember that traders need liquidity to execute their orders. And, the smart money is always in search of liquidity to fill their large orders. That’s the reason why the smart money needs to trigger those stops. Rule #2: The One-Hour before the London Open Needs to Generate the Breakout Our backtesting results revealed that momentum really starts to pick up 1-hour earlier than the actual London opening session. There are some smart ways to trade this burst of momentum. Let’s see some technical ways to trade the pre-London open. We don’t need to guess in which way the market will break, we let the market tip his hand and show us the way. This is where things get interesting. Let me explain… During the London session we’re going to see the most traded volume thus the foreign exchange market should really take off in one direction or another. Rule #3 Price needs to fade Immediately after the London session opens, we want to see the price fading the pre-open move. If the move starts fading, we know it was a false breakout. Smart money has used the pre-open move to trigger the stops above the range and now they reverse the tie and start selling. We want to see price pulling back into the range at the same speed as it went up. Let me explain… In simple words, the bearish momentum used to produce the false breakout needs to be equal to the bullish momentum used to fade the pre-open move. We enter our trade after the first 5-minutes have confirmed that the price is reversing. Once this trade setup is completed, you should see a price formation that takes the V-shaped form (or inverse V-shape). Rule #4 Take Profit or Ride the Trend We can measure the size of the Asia trading range and project from the top or bottom of our range to get our profit target. But, oftentimes this type of setup can lead to a trading day that can extend in the days to come. Now, in this case, it’s wise if you employ other trading tactics so you can actually profit from this trend. In this example, the better take profit strategy would be to use a trailing stop. You need to be ready to explore other trading methods to manage your trades. Rule #5 Use a Time Stop Instead of a Price Stop In order to fade the London breakout, you need to use unconventional trading methods. In this regard, for our stop loss trading strategy we’re going to use a time stop instead of a price stop. The first time I’ve ever heard about the time stop concept was while reading the Market Wizards book. Billionaire Hedge Fund manager Paul Tudor Jones one of the greatest traders of our times said: “When I trade, I don’t just use a price stop, I also use a time stop.” So, how to apply the time stop to the London strategy? It’s very simple… If, in the first hour after the London open the price didn’t COMPLETELY reversed the pre-opening breakout, we exit the trade. It’s simple as that, no further explanation is needed.
Education
by Tradingstrategyguides
EURUSD : Stoploss Hunters in ActionA simple analysis of trading psychology that was recently happened on EURUSD. 1. Price broke through the upper trendline, breakout players jumping in and start buying the pairs. 2. The big players(institutional, hedge funds, etc) let the market ran for a while to wait until a lot of bulls entered the market. 3. Most of novice traders are easy to read, so the big players can predict their entries and stoploss. In this case, most of the entry and stoploss triggers are probably set on these 2 lines. 4. Once the bullish momentum slowly built up, those big players started pouring sell orders in huge chunks, drowning all the retail traders who had taken buy position thinking the breakout would continue. 5. Price slowly going down even though most of traders were sure the breakout was a sign that price might go higher. Some novice might have thought that this bearish movement was just some retracement before price launch like a rocket. 6. The institutional traders, this time, managed to push price down until it started hitting the stoplosses of the retail traders. A stoploss of a long position equals as a sell order when triggered. These triggered stoploss, combined with new sellers that jumping in after seeing a strong selling pressures, can only fuel the bearish momentum even more, resulting in an even bigger selling pressure.
Education
by doubleBeefStew
How to Spot False BreakoutsEverything is described on the chart. Another thing are bull traps. These happen when there is NO retest of resistance and volume may be lacking. You can always have an uptrend without an actual "breakout." Breakouts clarify STRONG uptrends that are likely to continue. Also, notice how when the volume peeked we formed a doji. This means that a lot of people came in and took profits because they knew the trend was weak. This one is very weak and will be shot down. Hope this helps!
NEducation
by Elijah_Trading