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Forwardtesting

Managing Risk Using Probabilities 3 In part 2 of this series, we discussed the probability of a coin flip and how the odds that you land on heads "x" number of times in a row significantly decreases each time the coin is flipped. Therefore, it is important to understand the difference between "the probability the chart goes up or down" and "the probability that you (the trader) find yourself in a winning trade." The brings me to my next point of gathering your data. There is a difference between gathering data to calculate the probability an asset will rise or fall versus gathering data on a specific trade set-up and determining whether or not it will win or lose. Backtesting and forward testing are both excellent methods to calculate probabilities. In my honest opionion, backtest at least 100 trades in order to best calculate probability. Ask yourself if you are okay with losing more than 3 times in a row. If your set up loses more than 4 times in a row, it is very likely your odds of being in a losing trade are worse. Please take the time to think and meditate on this matter. If there are no questions concerning this, I may begin to go into details of my own personal trading set ups on the next article. Be blessed! Handy
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PEducation
by DelusionalRams8
2
STEP 1 to MASTER TRADING: Hindsight trading. Train your eyes.A common mistake that traders make after learning any kind of trading setup is jumping into backtesting using a replay tool, or even live trading. However, if you think about it, trading is very much about pattern recognition. And when you force yourself into live trading without a proper understanding of what your patterns look like, most likely you’ll need much more time to succeed. A different approach and much more effective would be using hindsight, that’s when you see what actually happened. During this process, try to find at least 50 high-quality setups, that represent your trading system. So you actually see everything that happened and find situations, where your edge played out, document it in your journal. That’s great training for your eyes and brain. You don’t need to guess, you will not feel anything, because you already see what happened, you’ll notice that sometimes your edge, your system doesn’t give you entries and price goes without you, sometimes, you’ll see a loser or a breakeven after your entry, start to get used to this, as it’s all part of your system. After that, you'll have a much better understanding and vision for your setup - and that could be the time to try some backtesting and forwardtesting. I’ll talk more about a different kind of backtesting in future posts. Meanwhile, take care, send your questions, and comments, will be glad to chat with you. Dima
Education
by Yelli_trades
1
How to approach a pair during its consolidation period!-When there is a consolidation happening on a pair, this would be an excellent opportunity to look for a breakout and a reversal of the support/resistance of the consolidation box. -For these types of setups we need be patient and see how price will move to either the upside or downside. -Once we see a breakout of the consolidation box then it is essential to wait for a retest and enter when we see a strong candle stick confirmation depending on which way price breakout the box. -Make sure to do loads of backtesting and forward testing this strategy to become more confident in the strategy. -Make sure to journal all the trades to see how well you perform and look back to see what you can improve on. If you need any more advice, support or mentoring then give me a message to see how best I can help you. Please make sure to follow, leave a like and a comment on your opinion/ideas on how to approach these types of strategy. In the near future, I will be hoping to post more educational posts to help my followers or anyone who wants to learn and get a better understanding on how to approach markets.
Education
by LDForex_
1