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GLD

Gold Order Flow - Bears Rule The MarketHey traders, Yet again, the OFA script clearly show we should not be meddling with the affairs of the bears, side fully in control of the price action in the Gold market. Let the flows, identified via the formation of fractal-based structures, determine the path of least resistance. As usual, credit where is due (Bill Williams). The script simply makes it visually easier to call these trend, which otherwise would be seemingly hard to continuously identify through manual analysis. Be reminded, when applying the OFA script , it has 2 main components to study: Magnitude: A major clue that will help determine the health of a trend is the type of progress by the dominant side in control of the trend. We need to ask the following question: Are the new legs in the active buy-sell side campaign as identified by the script increasing or decreasing in magnitude? Velocity: When it comes to the distance the price moves, the magnitude is only ½ the equation. The other ½ has to do with the velocity of the move or the speed. Was the new leg created after a fast and impulsive move? Or did price make a new low or high with the movement being sluggish, compressive and taking too long to form? A good rule of thumb is to count the number of candles it took to achieve a new leg. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
AMEX:GLDEducation
by FlowState
Golden Opportunities- lessons from the last two yearsIt all started with gold prices falling in 2018, and after a while, I started looking for potential opportunities in Gold. What followed was a long time friend by the same namesake suddenly popped up to ask for my opinion specifically about gold... and this was two years ago today, short of a few days, in mid-August 2018 (see chart by zooming out). Since then, the gray arrows mark the theoretical ideal entry points and the white arrows are my real entry points. You can see a particular pattern here, which I spoke of previously, where it is more favorable a time for entry based on a set of rules that includes technicals and patterns, providing a higher probability of a good profit, be it for a trade, investment, or longer term holding. Coming back to the last two weeks, I have had many people asking about gold, and my opinion about it, etc. many are ready to enter the gold market. You see, most of it was sparked off by the recent gold rush (as is always), and I noticed that often, there is a lack of rules from the beginning, for entry nor for exit. So herein is a visual set of rules I have for entry in gold which were tested over the last two years... 1. Price must break above a down sloping trend line; and 2. MACD must cross the zero line; and 3. Price must be higher than the recent highs (of the last 11/13/21, whichever is preferred) These rules work very well, particularly when two conditions are met: 1. Weekly chart is favorable in trend (this case, trending up); and 2. There is a strong fundamental reason (this case is very robust for Gold to be in favour) So there you go... I hope everyone can see that to buy gold at the current time (or In recent weeks) is probably not as favorable as you would like it to be, notwithstanding that Gold may advance higher at some point, anyways. In fact, it is projected that gold should be topping out around 2100, next week perhaps (reference the white line).
TVC:GOLDEducation
by Auguraltrader
Gold, GDX & GLD: Correlated Markets Lead To BIG Profits! If you trade Gold, you must know that the GDX and the GLD are both derivative markets of Gold and are closely correlated since they both track aspects of Gold. So when either one of these move, then you must look to the other one's and see what they are doing, going to do or done already. They can give you precious clues as to what the other markets are going to do. In most cases, GDX and GLD are forward indicators of Gold itself. Why do I point this out? Well, what you see in my charts is my analysis of these 3 markets and you can see that they are all closely mimic each other. Now, I follow the mantra of "Trade what you see. Not what you think". That means I look at each chart by itself and not dependent on what any other chart is doing or projected to do. But when I analyze Gold, I also do look to GDX and GLD as well and see if my independent analysis of those markets agree with what I see in Gold. But VERY IMPORTANT to keep in mind is that NO MARKET correlate 1:1 to any other market. What that means is that Gold can move 100 pips while GDX might only move 25 pts. In any case, I'm showing you these trades that I took and issued out to my followers to illustrate this point. Just a tip for you the next time you decide to trade in Gold. Want to know more? Look below to my signature box or PM me.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by EverythingForex
3
How a Hedge Fund Manager trades GoldLearn with the Lex van Dam Trading Academy on TradingView! www.tradingview.com Featured in our Trading Club, 4th July Our checklist provides a systematic process that fellow hedge fund managers and traders employ to analyse markets, from which the biggest trading decisions are made. We use similar versions to analyse major currencies, stock markets and other commodities such as crude oil, and score each factor +1, -1 or 0 depending on whether they are regarded as positive, negative or neutral for the coming month. The total ranges from +7 to -7, with a positive score indicating a potential buy, and a negative score suggesting that you may look to sell (closing long positions or going short). Sometimes of course there will be a neutral total of 0 - which in itself can be valuable in protecting your P&L by avoiding trades when there is nothing to be done. Excess liquidity. When annual growth in the money supply exceeds industrial production, as it does currently, the number is positive and is considered a bullish factor for gold as an alternative store of value and hedge against the erosion of purchasing power. This doesn't tend to change month-to-month and has indeed been positive for some time. (+1) Real interest rate. Those of you who follow us know why we like to look at the so-called 'real rate’. When this is negative it means that domestic US savers and foreign investors are growing poorer by holding cash, which is a great reason to buy gold. For now though, the uptick makes gold less appealing as an alternate store of value against fiat currencies. (-1) ETF Flows. We also like to look at whats happening in ETFs. In the case of gold we are looking for any divergence between the spot gold price and a widely traded Exchange Traded Fund which tracks gold. Currently this is neutral as there is no divergence, indicating that things are behaving normally. (0) Futures positioning. We view speculative positioning as contrarians. Presently the net position is in the middle of the recent range and pretty much unchanged on the previous month. No directional signal here either. (0) Options positioning. Lex and I also look at the options market for clues. Although it is unusual to derive a contrarian signal from the options market if the futures position is not at an extreme, when you do see them it can be very insightful. For now though, whilst the risk reversal indicates a preference for upside bets, it is far from extreme and basically neutral, at least for now. (0) Short interest. Short interest in the gold miners has EXPLODED higher in recent weeks. This is not only a clear positive for contrarian gold investors, but also something that I want to do some further research in to. Even though there was no pessimism (let alone extreme pessimism) in the futures and options components on our checklist, when stock investors are suddenly making record short bets in shares of related mining companies, it tells me that there may be an opportunity coming. (+1) Seasonality. Gold tends to move in line with historical seasonal trends as much as any asset out there. However, whilst the summer months (including July) tend to be the best for gold, there have been some significant declines too. So even though we wouldn’t trade gold based on seasonality alone, it is a factor worth considering in our checklist. (+1) Overall, we arrive at a total score of +2 for gold heading in to July. Whilst technical analysts may say that the chart looks pretty negative, the our checklist suggests that gold bears may be caught short by the bull case captured in our objective trading process. Learn with the Lex van Dam Trading Academy on TradingView! www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Education
by JamesHelliwell
1