The "Head and Shoulders": Real success rates.Inverted Head and Shoulders: WATCH volumes when the neckline breaks!!
Here is what we can say about the success rate of the inverted head and shoulders pattern in trading:
-The inverted head and shoulders pattern is considered one of the most reliable chart patterns to anticipate a bullish reversal.
-According to some sources, the success rate of this pattern would be very high, with around 98% of cases resulting in a bullish exit.
-More precisely, in 63% of cases, the price would reach the price target calculated from the pattern when the neckline is broken.
-A pull-back (return to the neckline after the break) would occur in 45% of cases.
-However, it should be noted that these very optimistic figures must be qualified. Other sources indicate more modest success rates, around 60%.
-The reliability of the pattern depends on several factors such as respect for proportions, neckline breakout, volumes, etc. A rigorous analysis is necessary.
-It is recommended to use this pattern in addition to other indicators and analyses, rather than relying on it blindly.
In conclusion, although the inverse head and shoulders pattern is considered a very reliable pattern, its actual success rate is probably closer to 60-70% than the 98% sometimes claimed. It remains a useful tool but must be used with caution and in addition to other analyses.
__________________________________________________________________
Head and Shoulders:
Here is what we can say about the success rate of the head and shoulders pattern in trading:
-The head and shoulders pattern is considered one of the most reliable chart patterns, but its exact success rate is debated among technical analysts. Here are the key takeaways:
- Some sources claim very high success rates, up to 93% or 96%. However, these figures are likely exaggerated and do not reflect the reality of trading.
- In reality, the success rate is likely more modest. One cited study indicates that the price target is reached in about 60% of cases for a classic head and shoulders pattern.
- It is important to note that the head and shoulders pattern is not an infallible pattern. Its presence alone is not enough to guarantee a trend reversal.
- The reliability of the pattern depends on several factors such as respect for proportions, the breakout of the neckline, volumes, etc. Rigorous analysis is necessary.
- Many experienced traders recommend using this pattern in addition to other indicators and analyses, rather than relying on it blindly.
In conclusion, while the head and shoulders pattern is considered a reliable pattern, its actual success rate is probably closer to 60% than the 90%+ sometimes claimed. It remains a useful tool but should be used with caution and in conjunction with other analyses.
_____________________________________________________________________________
NB: In comparison, the classic (bearish) head and shoulders pattern would have a slightly lower success rate, with around 60% of cases where the price target is reached.
Headshoulders
Beginner Chart Patterns: Head & Shoulders, Double Tops and MoreWelcome to the world of chart patterns—the place where every price action tells a story. And if you read it right, you might just walk away with profits. In this Idea, we explore the immersive corner of technical analysis where chart patterns shape to potentially show you where the price is going. We’ll keep it tight and break down the most popular ones so you’d have more time to take your knowledge for a spin and look for some patterns (risk-free with a paper trading account ?). Let’s roll.
Chart patterns are the market’s version of geometry paired with hieroglyphics. They might look like random squiggles at first, but once you learn to decode them, they might reveal where the market is headed next. Here are the mainstay chart patterns everyone should start with: Head and Shoulders, Double Tops, and a few other gems.
1. Head and Shoulders: The King of Reversals
First up is the Head and Shoulders pattern—an iconic, evergreen, ever-fashionable formation that traders dream about. Why? Because it’s a reliable reversal pattern that often signals the end of a trend and the beginning of a new one.
Here’s the breakdown: Imagine a market that’s been climbing higher. It forms a peak (a shoulder), pulls back, then rallies even higher to form a bigger peak (the head), only to drop again. Finally, it gives one last weak attempt to rise (the second shoulder), but it can’t reach the same height as the head. The neckline, a horizontal line connecting the two lows between the peaks, is your trigger. Once the price breaks below it, it’s time to consider shorting or bailing on your long position.
And yes, there’s an inverted version of this pattern too. It looks like a man doing a handstand and signals a trend reversal from bearish to bullish. That’s Head and Shoulders—flipping trends since forever.
2. Double Tops and Double Bottoms: The Market’s Déjà Vu
Next up, we have the Double Top and Double Bottom patterns—the market’s way of saying, “Been there, done that.” These patterns occur when the price tries and fails—twice—to break through a key level.
Double Top : Picture this: The price surges to a high, only to hit a ceiling and fall back. Then, like a stubborn child, it tries again but fails to break through. That’s your Double Top—two peaks, one resistance level, and a potential trend reversal in the making. When the price drops below the support formed by the dip between the two peaks, it’s a signal that the bulls are out of steam.
Double Bottom : Flip it over, and you’ve got a Double Bottom—a W-shaped pattern that forms after the price tests a support level twice. If it can’t break lower and starts to rally, it’s a sign that the bears are losing control. A breakout above the peak between the two lows confirms the pattern, signaling a potential bullish reversal.
3. Triangles: The Calm Before the Storm
Triangles are the market’s way of coiling up before making a big move. They come in three flavors—ascending, descending, and symmetrical.
Ascending Triangle : Here’s how it works: The price forms higher lows but keeps bumping into the same resistance level. This shows that buyers are getting stronger, but sellers aren’t ready to give up. Eventually, pressure builds and the price breaks out to the upside. But since it’s trading, you can expect the price to break to the downside, too.
Descending Triangle : The opposite of the ascending triangle, this pattern shows lower highs leaning against a flat support level. Sellers are gaining the upper hand and when the price breaks below the support, it’s usually game over for the bulls. But not always—sometimes, bulls would have it their way.
Symmetrical Triangle : This is the market’s version of a coin toss. The price is squeezing into a tighter range with lower highs and higher lows. It’s anyone’s guess which way it’ll break, but when it does, expect a big move in that direction.
4. Flags and Pennants: The Market’s Pit Stop
If triangles are the calm before the storm, then flags and pennants are the pit stops during a race. These patterns are continuation signals, meaning that the trend is likely to keep going after a brief pause.
Flags : Flags are rectangular-shaped patterns that slope against the prevailing trend. If the market’s in an uptrend, the flag will slope downwards, and vice versa. Once the price breaks out of the flag in the direction of the original trend, it’s usually off to the races again.
Pennants : Pennants look like tiny symmetrical triangles. After a strong move, the price consolidates in a small, converging range before breaking out and continuing the trend. They’re short-lived but pack a punch.
Final Thoughts
To many technical analysts, chart patterns are the best thing the market can do. The secret code, or however you may want to call them, they can give you insight into the dealmaking between buyers and sellers and hint at what might happen next.
Whether it’s a Head and Shoulders flashing a trend reversal, a Double Top marking a key resistance level, or a Triangle gearing up for a breakout, these patterns are essential tools in your trading garden.
So next time you stare at a chart, keep in mind that you’re not just looking at random lines. You’re reading the market’s mind from a technical standpoint. And if you know what to look for, you’re one step closer to cracking the code.
How to Head and ShouldersGreetings, Financial Enthusiasts! 🌟 If you appreciate our charts, give us a quick 💜💜
The Head and Shoulders pattern is a well-known chart formation in technical analysis. It indicates a reversal from a bullish to a bearish trend, usually at the end of an upward trend.
Key Points:
- Head and Shoulders: Chart pattern signaling trend reversal.
- Formation: Three peaks on a baseline - two lower outer peaks and a higher middle peak.
- Bullish to Bearish: Suggests a shift from an upward trend to a downward one.
- Applicability: Seen on all timeframes, suitable for various traders and investors.
- Entry Levels: Easily identifiable, aiding in trade implementation.
Why It Matters:
The Head and Shoulders pattern provides traders with a visual representation of a trend reversal. It's widely used due to its simplicity and applicability across different timeframes.
The Pattern:
- Formation (Market Tops):
1. Left Shoulder: Price rises, forms a peak, then falls.
2. Head: Price rises again, forming a higher peak.
3. Right Shoulder: Price falls again, then rises but forms a lower peak than the head.
- Formation (Market Bottoms):
1. Left Shoulder: Price falls, forms a trough, then rises.
2. Head: Price falls again, forming a lower trough.
3. Right Shoulder: Price rises again, then falls, forming a higher trough than the head.
Neckline:
- For Market Tops: Connect the low after the left shoulder to the low following the head to create the neckline.
- For Market Bottoms: Connect the high after the left shoulder to the high after the head to form the neckline.
Trading the Pattern:
- Wait for the pattern to complete before trading.
- Entry when price breaks below the neckline (tops) or above it (bottoms).
- Stops placed above the right shoulder (tops) or below it (bottoms).
- Profit targets calculated based on the head-to-shoulder difference and added (bottoms) or subtracted (tops) from the breakout level.
Why It Works:
- Sellers enter as price falls from its peak, reducing aggressive buying.
- The neckline marks a point where traders exit positions, driving price toward the target.
- A lower right shoulder (tops) or higher right shoulder (bottoms) signals a trend shift.
- Profit target assumes forced exits by those in losing positions.
- The neckline prompts many traders to exit, pushing price towards the target.
- Volume analysis helps confirm patterns; expanding volume (bottoms) shows increased buying interest.
Pitfalls:
- Waiting for pattern completion may require patience.
- Not all patterns lead to successful trades.
- Profit targets aren't always reached.
- External events can disrupt patterns.
- Patterns can be subjective; traders should define their criteria.
The Head and Shoulders pattern, though not foolproof, provides a structured approach to identify and act on trend reversals.
📊How To Trade: H&S Pattern📍How to Identify and Use the Head and Shoulders Pattern
The head and shoulders pattern is characterized by key features to look out for on trading charts. It typically occurs after a bullish uptrend when buying pressure begins to fade. The pattern includes a left shoulder, a higher middle peak, and a right shoulder approximately at the same level as the left shoulder. Additionally, the pattern should have a distinct neckline acting as a support level.
✔️To successfully identify and trade the head and shoulders pattern, consider the following step-by-step approach:
🔹 Look for three distinct tops , namely the left shoulder, head, and right shoulder, which occur after an uptrend.
🔹 Identify the neckline support level , which connects the lowest points of the left and right shoulders.
🔹 Wait for a breakout to occur, confirmed by a candle closing below the neckline.
🔹 Once the breakout is confirmed, place a selling order to capitalize on the bearish reversal signaled by the pattern.
🔹 Implement a stop-loss order above the neckline, ideally positioned at the highest level of the right shoulder, to manage risk effectively.
🔹 Consider using a risk-reward ratio to determine a suitable target for taking profits, ensuring the potential reward justifies the risk taken.
Lets consider the following example below as a step by step to identify the pattern. This is what it would look like in a real scenario:
Step 1: Price is moving on an uptrend and starting to form the head and shoulder peaks
Step 2: We can identify the neckline which we can observe price react as a temporary support which connects the lower peaks. We need to wait for a clear breakout in order to find an entry
insert s2.png image here
Step 3: Price broke below the neckline and re-tested the neckline so we enter a short position on the re-test with taking profit target the length of the head to neckline
insert s3.png image here
Step 4: We can see the pattern was correct and it hit our targets
insert s4.png here
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HEAD & SHOULDERS PATTERN AND A LIVE EXAMPLE IN AUDJPYHead & Shoulders pattern is popularized amount traders, the H&S is one of the first patterns traders come in contact with.
H&S are formed in all time frames and in all markets.
Here is an example of AUDJPY trading H&S in a Daily Chart.
H&S are reversals patterns, they can be trade in all times frames but i like to use the H&S in smallest time frames as Price action reversal patterns, If I were trading other pattern than H&S the H&S in M30 for example would be a signal for me telling me it worth to take a trade amounts others trading methods.
HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN - TRADING GUIDE Head and Shoulders pattern
This lesson will cover the following
What is a “Head and Shoulders” formation?
How can it be confirmed?
How can it be traded?
The Head and Shoulders pattern forms after an uptrend, and if confirmed, marks a trend reversal. The opposite pattern, the Inverse Head and Shoulders, therefore forms after a downtrend and marks the end of the downward price movement.
As you can guess by its name, the Head and Shoulders pattern consists of three peaks – a left shoulder, a head, and a right shoulder. The head should be the highest and the two shoulders should be at least relatively of equal height. As the price corrects from each peak, the lows retreat to form the so-called neckline, which is later used for confirming the pattern. Here is what an H&S pattern looks like.
Other key elements of this pattern and its trade process are the breakouts, protective stops, profit target, and volume, which is used as an additional tool to confirm the trend reversal. So here is how you identify the Head and Shoulders pattern and how its individual components are characterized.
Formation and confirmation
In order to have a trend reversal pattern, you definitely need a trending market. Let's talk about the first model of H&S, the Inverse or Reversal will have the same methodology but exactly in the opposite way.
While prices are trending up, our future patterns left shoulder forms as a peak, which marks the high of the current trend. For the shoulder to be formed, the price then needs to correct down, retreating to a low, which is usually above or at the trend line, thus, keeping the uptrend still in force. This low marks the first point used to determine where the neckline stands.
Afterward, a new higher peak begins to form, stemming from the left shoulder low, which is our pattern head. As the market makes a higher high (the head), it then corrects back and usually, this is the point where the upward trend is penetrated, thus signaling a shift in momentum and a possible Head and Shoulders pattern.
The second low that is touched after the retreat from the heads peak is the other point used to build the neckline, which is basically a line drawn through the two lows.
The subsequent rebound from the second low forms the third peak – the right shoulder. It should be lower than the head and overall match the height of the left shoulder (keep in mind that exact matches rarely occur). It is also preferable that the two shoulders have required relatively the same amount of time to form as this would make the pattern stronger.
In order for the Head and Shoulders pattern to be confirmed, the retreat from the third peak (the right shoulder) should penetrate the neckline and a candle should close below it.
The neckline itself should be horizontal in the perfect case scenario, but that rarely happens. Instead, most often it is sloping up or down and that is of significance as well – a downward-sloping neckline is more bearish than an upward-sloping one.
Volume
As mentioned above, volume plays a key role as a confirmation tool and can be measured via indicators or by just analyzing its levels. Presumably, volume during the left shoulder advance should be higher than during the subsequent one, because as the head hits a higher high on the base of declining volume, this serves as an early signal for a possible reverse. This, however, does not happen every time.
The next step of confirmation comes when volume increases during the decline from the head's peak and the last nail in the coffin are when volume gains further during the right shoulder's decline.
Trading the pattern, stops and profit targets
We said earlier that the Head and Shoulders pattern is deemed confirmed if the right shoulder's decline penetrates through the neckline and a candle closes below it. As soon as that happens and you are reassured that it is not a false breakout, you can enter into a short position. However, as you already know, no trading decisions should be made on the go, i.e. you need to have predetermined where your protective stop is going to stand and what your profit target is.
Protective stop
There are two common places where you can place your stop loss. The first one, which is more conservative, is right above the peak of the head, while a more standard position is right beyond the right shoulder. You can see those visualized in the following screenshot.
The second option makes more sense because if the breakout through the neckline actually fails and the price rebounds back with such momentum that it rises beyond the right shoulder, then the whole pattern is flawed and you definitely do not need to wait for it to exceed the head as well. Besides, such a loose stop significantly increases the risk and reduces the risk/reward ratio, thus, reducing this pattern's trading appeal.
Profit target
The most common and often advised profit target is the distance (number of pips) between the head's peak and the neckline. Having estimated that distance, you then need to subtract it from the neckline, just like in the screenshot below.
And how does that translate in terms of risk/reward ratio? If the breakout confirmation (the close beyond the neckline) appears very close to the neckline itself, and we enter into a short position there, we generally have a 1:1 risk-to-reward proportion, if we use a conservative protective stop. Why?
Since our profit target is the distance between the heads peak and the neckline, if we decide to use the conservative option for a protective stop, then we will have the same distance as a loss limit, thus, reducing our risk-to-reward ratio to 1:1.
This is why, in order to improve that ratio, most experienced traders place their protective stops more often above the right shoulders peak, given that they use the head-to-neckline profit target.
However, keep in mind that this price distance should serve as a rough target, because things are usually not that straightforward and other factors such as previous support levels, crossing mid-term and long-term moving averages, etc. must be taken into consideration as well.
Two ways to trade the Head and Shoulders Pattern
There are generally two ways to trade this pattern, depending on how it plays out. The first one we've already mentioned. As soon as a candle closes below the neckline as a sign of confirmation, you enter into a short position with the respective profit target and protective stop described above.
Now for the second way to trade the H&S formation. In this case, we have a pullback after the neckline penetration, which, once support, now acts as a resistance level. This time we need to go short once the price pulls back and tests the neckline as resistance. As soon as it rebounds from the neckline, we enter into a short position, using the same principle for placing the protective stop and aiming for the same profit as in the first scenario. Here is what this would look like.
Educational: Head and Shoulder Reversal Patterns.There are a number of reversal patterns that playout time and time again. The most reliable of the reversal patterns is the "Head & Shoulders" top and bottom. Some technicians don't like to use the term head & shoulders as it's used quite a bit and not all reversal patterns are confirmed and end end up being consolidation patterns instead. Whatever you like to call the pattern is irrelevant. What is important is that you can identify the pattern as it signals possible distribution and reversal of the prior trend.
Some Background on Chart Patterns:
Charles Dow first introduced Dow Theory in his writings in the Wall Street Journal well over 100 years ago. Dow Theory is the origin of trend following. In 1948 Edwards and Magee introduced Technical Analysis of Stock Trends. This book expanded on the work done by Dow and introduced chart patterns as a system to identify changes to the existing trend. In 1997 John J. Murphy introduced Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets which is considered by many to be the definitive work on trend analysis and chart patterns first introduced by Dow and refined by Edwards and Magee. If you're not familiar with these works I highly suggest looking into each.
Identifying the Pattern:
1) There must be a trend in place. If the H&S pattern is a topping pattern then the prior trend must be an uptrend. If the H&S pattern is reversed and is a bottoming pattern then the prior trend must be a down trend.
2) As the pattern unfolds and the peaks are formed, a clearly defined support line called the neckline must be present.
3) Volume will confirm the pattern. Volume should be decreasing at the peak of each point in the left shoulder, head, and right shoulder.
Confirming the Pattern:
1) The existing trendline is broken.
2) The neckline is broken.
3) The neckline will now act as resistance. (Often, but not always the price will try to reclaim the neckline shortly after breaking.)
The Pattern is Invalid:
1) If volume is not receding at each peak then the technician should be skeptical of the validity of the pattern.
2) The right and left shoulder should be similar in height. Often times they are not, if in doubt use volume as your indicator.
3) Either the neckline or the prior trendline is retaken as support.
Forecasting a Price Target:
Using the measured move technique, the distance from the peak of the head to the neckline can be forecasted from the spot of the neckline being broken downwards. This distance can be used as a minimum downside price target.
Example:
This is an Apple Daily Line Chart from November 2020 to March 2021. All the important elements of a Head and Shoulders Reversal Pattern are evident.
1) A prior trend was in place.
2) The formation of the left shoulder, head, and right shoulder.
3) Retreating volume at each peak.
4) Breaking of the trendline.
5) Breaking of the Neckline.
6) Price tries to recapture the Neckline but fails.
7) Minimum downside target is reached.
Conclusion:
Pattern recognition is as much of an art form as it is a science. As technicians we want to draw our lines with fat crayons vs thin pencils. Patterns don't always follow the text books. The key is to understand the main tenants of each pattern and try to spot their formations before they confirm.
Thanks for taking the time to read this. Good luck to all!
What is Head and shoulders pattern and how to trade with that?*The Head and Shoulders ( Bearish ) pattern is one of the most popular and best known price patterns in trading.
This is a very accurate trading signal if you know how to use it properly and flexibly.
*What is Head and Shoulders? How to identify and characterize
Head and Shoulders is the name of a special type of price pattern that usually appears at the end of uptrends. This is a signal of future downtrends.
It is called Head and Shoulders because the shape of this pattern on the price chart is similar to that of the human body including Left Shoulder, Head, and Right Shoulder.
The line connecting the two troughs of the shoulders is often called the neckline. In fact, this pattern is perfect when the Neckline is horizontal (the prices of the two lows are approximately the same).
How to trade with this:
ENTRY POINT : Right after the candlestick breaks out of the neckline (or at the Retesting the neckline )
STOP-LOSS : At the peak of the right shoulder.
TARGET : Usually, Head and Shoulders is a pattern for starting a downtrend. Therefore, adjust the first target to the height of the neckline to the top (H) of the pattern and adjust the next targets according to the past price and chart.
This is the academic shape of this pattern, in the future we will publish other types of head and shoulder patterns 📚 . Please follow our page to be informed as soon as the materials are published.
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How to Measure Head & Shoulders TargetWhat Is a Head and Shoulders Pattern?
A head and shoulders pattern is a chart formation that appears as a baseline with three peaks, where the outside two are close in height and the middle is highest. In technical analysis, a head and shoulders pattern describes a specific chart formation that predicts a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal.
The head and shoulders pattern is believed to be one of the most reliable trend reversal patterns. It is one of several top patterns that signal, with varying degrees of accuracy, that an upward trend is nearing its end.
The first and third peaks are shoulders, and the second peak forms the head. The line connecting the first and second troughs is called the neckline.
An inverse or reverse head and shoulders pattern is also a reliable indicator that can signal that a downward trend is about to reverse into an upward trend. In this case, the stock's price reaches three consecutive lows, separated by temporary rallies. Of these, the second trough is the lowest (the head) and the first and third are slightly shallower (the shoulders). The final rally after the third dip signals that the bearish trend has reversed and prices are likely to keep rallying upward.
The opposite of a head and shoulders chart is the inverse head and shoulders, also called a head and shoulders bottom. It is inverted with the head and shoulders top used to predict reversals in downtrends. This pattern is identified when the price action of a security meets the following characteristics: The price falls to a trough and then rises; the price falls below the former trough and then rises again; finally, the price falls again but not as far as the second trough. Once the final trough is made, the price heads upward, toward the resistance found near the top of the previous troughs.
Measuring head and shoulders price target is simple.
You'd measure the peak of the head down to the neck line, and then drag it to the point where the stock breaks out from the pattern.
Head & Shoulders Pattern - Advanced AnalysisIn this series about chart patterns we previously discussed narrowing wedges patterns, explaining their identification rules, the measure rule associated with them, and various observations.
In this post, we will cover head & shoulders, inverse head & shoulders, and their complex counterpart. We will cover their identification rules, measure rules, and share some observations regarding these unique yet popular patterns.
The topics covered in this post are mostly based on the work of Bulkowski on chart patterns (1).
1. Head And Shoulders
The head and shoulder pattern also referred to as Head-and-Shoulders Tops by Bulkowski, is a bearish reversal structure commonly found in uptrends, characterized by a series of three maxima with the center maxima higher than the other two.
The first maxima is denoted as "Left Shoulder", the second maxima (the highest one in the formation) is denoted as "Head", and the third maxima is denoted as "Right Shoulder". The volume on a head and shoulders formation should be decreasing over time.
Bulkwoski points out that symmetry can play an important role in the validity of an H&S pattern.
1: H&S = Left Shoulder < Head > Right Shoulder
2: Left Shoulder ≈ Right Shoulder
The first and second maxima are followed by two minima, the line connecting these two-point form the "neckline". Price breaking the neckline downward is a bearish signal (note that a low volume breakout is not indicative of a potential failure).
Ongoing H&S on PGAL daily, waiting for the price to reach the neckline.
2. Inverted Head And Shoulders
The inverted head and shoulder pattern also referred to as Head-and-Shoulders Bottoms by Bulkowski, is a bullish reversal structure commonly found in downtrends, characterized by a series of three minima with the centre minima lower than the previous two.
The first minima is denoted as "Left Shoulder", the second minima (the lowest one in the formation) is denoted as "Head", and the third minima is denoted as "Right Shoulder". Like with a regular H&S, the volume should be decreasing over time.
We can see it's simply a regular H&S pattern, but inverted.
1: Inverted H&S = Left Shoulder > Head < Right Shoulder
2: Left Shoulder ≈ Right Shoulder
The first and second minima are followed by two maxima, the line connecting these two-point form the "neckline". Price breaking the neckline upward is a bullish signal (note that a low volume breakout is not indicative of a potential failure).
Inverted H&S on MTSI daily.
3. Complex Variations
Bulkowski presents two complex variations to the H&S and inverted H&S patterns. These complex variations are similar to the regular ones but have the particularity of having multiple shoulders on each side or multiple heads.
Inverted complex H&S on ARKW daily.
4. Measure Rule
The measure rule for head and shoulders formations allows the determination for the level of taking profits and stop losses after a breakout of the neckline.
In the case of a regular H&S, the take profit should be set at the breakout point minus the height between the formation head value and the neckline value where the head is located.
The same applies to inverted H&S, the take profit should be set at the breakout point plus the height between the formation neckline value where the head is located and the formation head value.
In the case of a complex dual-head H&S formation, the head value that should be selected is the lowest one.
5. Observations
Head and shoulders formations can sometimes be encountered within diamonds formations.
Osler identifies head-and-shoulders trading as a type of noise trading and points out that the immediate price effect of head-and-shoulders trades disappears slowly but completely over the subsequent two weeks (2).
Caginalp and Balevonich found that head and shoulders patterns can be obtained as a consequence of a single group of investors with identical motivations and assessment of the value of the financial instrument (3).
7. References
(1) Bulkowski, T. N. (2021). Encyclopedia of chart patterns. John Wiley & Sons.
(2) Osler, C. (1998). Identifying Noise Traders: The Head-and-Shoulders Pattern in U.S. Equities. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Research Paper Series.
(3) Caginalp, G., & Balevonich, D. (2003). A Theoretical Foundation for Technical Analysis. Capital Markets: Market Microstructure eJournal.
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Inverted Head and Shoulders Definition:
A head and shoulders pattern is also a trend reversal formation.
It is formed by a Valley (left shoulder), followed by a Lower Valley (head), and then another Higher Valley (right shoulder).
A “ Neckline ” is drawn by connecting the highest points of the two Peaks. Neckline resistance does not need to be strictly horizontal.
This illustrates that the downward trend is coming to an end .
When a Head and Shoulders formation is seen in a downtrend, it signifies a major reversal .
The pattern is confirmed once the price breaches the neckline resistance .
In this example, we can easily see the head and shoulders pattern.
How to Trade the Head and Shoulders Pattern :
ENTRY:
we put an entry order above the neckline.
TARGET:
We can also calculate a target by measuring the lowest point of the head to the neckline.
This distance is approximately how far the price will move after it breaks the neckline.
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Head and Shoulders - "Learn More Earn More" with usHead and Shoulders Definition:
A head and shoulders pattern is also a trend reversal formation.
It is formed by a peak (left shoulder), followed by a higher peak (head), and then another lower pea k (right shoulder).
A “Neckline” is drawn by connecting the lowest points of the two troughs. Neckline support does not need to be strictly horizontal.
. This illustrates that the upward trend is coming to an end.
. When a Head and Shoulders formation is seen in an uptrend , it signifies a major reversal .
. The pattern is confirmed once the price breaches the neckline support
In this example, we can easily see the head and shoulders pattern.
How to Trade the Head and Shoulders Pattern:
ENTRY:
we put an entry order below the neckline.
TARGET:
We can also calculate a target by measuring the high point of the head to the neckline.
This distance is approximately how far the price will move after it breaks the neckline.
Head and Shoulders - "Learn More Earn More" with us Head and Shoulders Definition:
A head and shoulders pattern is also a trend reversal formation.
It is formed by a peak (left shoulder), followed by a higher peak (head), and then another lower pea k (right shoulder).
A “Neckline” is drawn by connecting the lowest points of the two troughs. Neckline support does not need to be strictly horizontal.
. This illustrates that the upward trend is coming to an end.
. When a Head and Shoulders formation is seen in an uptrend , it signifies a major reversal .
. The pattern is confirmed once the price breaches the neckline support
In this example, we can easily see the head and shoulders pattern.
How to Trade the Head and Shoulders Pattern:
ENTRY:
we put an entry order below the neckline.
TARGET:
We can also calculate a target by measuring the high point of the head to the neckline.
This distance is approximately how far the price will move after it breaks the neckline.