Educational : Exploring the Ichimoku Cloud IndicatorIn this article, I have made a sincere effort to explain each and every concept of the Ichimoku Cloud indicator in a clear and concise manner. My aim was to keep the explanations as simple as possible, ensuring that traders of all levels can easily understand and apply this powerful tool in their trading strategies.
I understand that technical analysis can sometimes be overwhelming with complex indicators and calculations. Therefore, I have taken great care to break down the components of the Ichimoku Cloud and explain their meanings in plain language. By doing so, I hope to make the indicator more accessible to traders who may be new to the concept or seeking a simplified explanation.
Introduction:
In the world of forex trading, there are numerous technical analysis tools available to help traders make informed decisions. One such tool is the Ichimoku Cloud, also known as Ichimoku Kinko Hyo. While it may seem complex at first, this indicator offers valuable insights into market trends, support and resistance levels, and potential trading opportunities. In this article, we will dive into the details of the Ichimoku Cloud, explaining its components, calculation methodology, trading strategies, combining it with other indicators, and ultimately demystifying its potential benefits.
What is the Ichimoku Cloud?
The Ichimoku Cloud is a comprehensive technical analysis tool developed by Japanese journalist Goichi Hosoda in the late 1960s. Its name, Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, translates to "one-glance equilibrium chart," reflecting its purpose of providing a holistic view of the market in a single indicator. Unlike many other indicators, the Ichimoku Cloud is known for its simplicity and ability to convey complex market information at a glance.
Understanding the Ichimoku Cloud Indicator:
The Ichimoku Cloud indicator consists of several components that work together to generate valuable trading insights. Let's explore each component:
Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line): This line represents the midpoint of the highest high and lowest low over a specified period. It serves as a dynamic support or resistance level, indicating short-term market sentiment.
Kijun-sen (Base Line): Similar to the Tenkan-sen, the Kijun-sen also represents a midpoint. However, it considers a more extended period and provides a broader perspective on the market sentiment.
Senkou Span A (Leading Span A): This line is formed by averaging the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen values and then plotted forward by the number of periods used for the Tenkan-sen. It provides an insight into potential future support or resistance levels.
Senkou Span B (Leading Span B): This line is calculated by averaging the highest high and lowest low over a more extended period and plotted forward. The area between Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B forms the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo). The color of the cloud varies based on the relationship between Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B and indicates the prevailing market trend.
Chikou Span (Lagging Span): The Chikou Span represents the current closing price, plotted backward by the number of periods used for the Tenkan-sen. It helps traders identify potential support or resistance levels based on historical price action.
How is the Ichimoku Cloud Calculated?
Calculating the Ichimoku Cloud requires specific formulas based on historical price data. Here is a simplified summary of the calculations:
Tenkan-sen: It is calculated by summing the highest high and lowest low over a specified period (typically 9 periods) and then dividing the sum by two.
Kijun-sen: Similarly, the Kijun-sen is calculated by summing the highest high and lowest low over a different period (typically 26 periods) and dividing the sum by two.
Senkou Span A: This line is formed by averaging the values of the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and then plotting it forward by the number of periods used for the Tenkan-sen.
Senkou Span B: It is calculated by summing the highest high and lowest low over an extended period (typically 52 periods) and then dividing the sum by two. Like Senkou Span A, it is plotted forward.
Chikou Span: The Chikou Span represents the current closing price, plotted backward by the number of periods used for the Tenkan-sen.
Applying the Ichimoku Cloud Trading Strategy:
The Ichimoku Cloud can be used to develop various trading strategies. One popular approach is trend following. Here's a simple example:
Bullish Trend: If the price is above the cloud, and the cloud is green (Senkou Span A is above Senkou Span B), it suggests a bullish trend. Traders may look for long positions when the Tenkan-sen crosses above the Kijun-sen within the cloud.
Bearish Trend: Conversely, if the price is below the cloud, and the cloud is red (Senkou Span A is below Senkou Span B), it indicates a bearish trend. Traders may consider short positions when the Tenkan-sen crosses below the Kijun-sen within the cloud.
It's crucial to note that additional analysis and risk management techniques should accompany any trading strategy. Backtesting and practicing the strategy in a demo environment are recommended before using it in live trading.
Combining the Ichimoku Cloud with Other Indicators:
While the Ichimoku Cloud can be used as a standalone tool, combining it with other indicators can enhance trading decisions. Here are a couple of examples:
Moving Averages: Traders often combine the Ichimoku Cloud with other moving averages to confirm trends and potential crossover signals. For instance, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) can be used as a long-term trend filter.
Oscillators: Oscillators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or the Stochastic Oscillator, can complement the Ichimoku Cloud by identifying overbought or oversold conditions. Divergences between the oscillator and price may signal potential reversals or trend continuation opportunities.
Conclusion:
The Ichimoku Cloud is a powerful technical analysis tool that offers a holistic view of the forex market. By integrating multiple components into a single indicator, it helps traders identify trends, support and resistance levels, and potential trading opportunities. While it requires practice and understanding, the Ichimoku Cloud can provide valuable insights to both novice and experienced traders.
However, it's important to note that no indicator guarantees accurate predictions, and trading always carries risks. Traders should exercise caution, conduct thorough research, and combine the Ichimoku Cloud with other analysis techniques, risk management strategies, and prudent decision-making.
In conclusion, the Ichimoku Cloud stands as a unique and comprehensive tool in the forex market, empowering traders with a deep understanding of market trends and potential trading setups. With its ability to simplify complex market information into a single indicator, the Ichimoku Cloud has gained popularity among traders worldwide.
Ichimokuforex
Tips to identify potential trendsTo identify potential trends with ichimoku you need to look at 5 lines:
-Tenkan sen:Tenkan sen is higher than kijun sen in an uptrend and vice versa
-Kijun sen :Kijun sen is higher than kumo clouds in an uptrend and vice versa, if the price is lower than kijun sen, the market is no longer a potential trend.
-Kumo:The kumo shape is very important, it shows the long term momentum of the market, if the kumo is thin and small then the trend is easy to retrace, if the kumo is wide and long it is a stable trend.
-Chiko span:It is one of the most important lines but everyone ignores it, it shows the current momentum of the market, if the chiko span crosses with the candle then the market is in range because the momentum is at zero.
Example with Xauusd:
-Chiko span on candle
-Price above kijun sen
-Kumo is wide and thick
->So now Xauusd is trending up potential !
How to use relative strength/weakness in Forex — GBPUSD exampleIchimoku makes identifying trends very easy, but it can be difficult to know when to enter a trend. This factor is often overlooked by newer traders, and it makes a significant difference to risk-adjusted returns.
One of my favourite ways to identify when to enter a trend is to use the concept of relative strength or weakness. Put simply, relative strength or weakness is when you compare a security to an "index" and try to understand whether:
The index is moving up, and your chosen security is moving up even faster = Relative Strength
The index is moving down or ranging, and your chosen security is holding ground or moving slightly higher = Relative Strength
The index is moving down, and your chosen security is moving down even faster = Relative Weakness
The index is moving up or ranging, and your chosen security is holding ground or moving slightly lower = Relative Weakness
This concept is incredibly important to understand. It can turn a B+ setup into an A+ setup.
The question is then, how do you find relative strength? The really easy, beginner-friendly, way is to plot the "Rate of Change" (ROC). This is an included indicator in TradingView and simply tells you how quickly something is moving up or down. What you can do with ROC is to plot it against the symbol you're trading, and then plot it again against an index. An example of an index could be $DXY for the USD. This index would work for pairs like USDJPY, USDEUR, USDGBP, etc. Any pair where USD is the base.
I found a perfect example of relative weakness on GBPUSD. I plotted the ROC for GBPUSD (green) and the ROC for all GBP pairs (red). Ichimoku already told me that GBPUSD was bearish and I was looking for an opportunity to go short. Notice, that when GBPUSD becomes weaker than all GBP pairs, there is almost no bullish pressure.
If you short when there is relative weakness, your trade would have almost zero drawdown, and you would be in profit almost instantly. Yes, you could short anywhere on this chart and make money if you didn't have a stoploss, but this is not how to trade like a professional. If you tried to short this morning when there was no relative weakness, you would have to suffer through +37 pips of drawdown before it started moving down again. Could you take that? Could your risk manager take that if you were trading someone else's money?
I encourage all traders to explore Relative Strength/Weakness. It is one of the most powerful concepts in trading, and as long as you have your "index" right, you can use this anywhere. Stocks, Forex, Crypto, Commoddities, etc.
How I'm setting stop losses on USDJPY using IchimokuIn my recent post I indicated that I am long USDJPY due to the higher timeframe bullish trend:
A question that traders often ask is "how do I set a stop-loss when the market is moving up?". This applies if you are looking to enter your first trade in the trend, or if you want to trail a stop-loss on an existing order. The answer is simple when you use Ichimoku.
Briefly, Ichimoku lines indicate the "market equilibrium" over various timeframes. There are three equilibrium lines (or "Han-ne" lines in Japanese). These are:
1. Tenkan-Sen - 9 periods / Short-term equilibrium (yellow on my chart)
2. Kijun-Sen - 26 periods / Medium-term equilibrium (red on my chart)
3. Senko Span B - 52 periods / Long-term equilibrium (red kumo cloud line on my chart)
A Han-ne line is created by finding the midpoint of the highest high and lowest low within the set number of periods. If price is above a Han-ne line, it is said to be bullish in that timeframe, and the opposite for bearish. There is a lot more to learn about Han-ne lines and the meaning of the equilibrium, but for our purposes here, understand that these lines tell you the point where buyers and sellers meet.
One of the reasons we know that USDJPY is bullish is because the Han-ne lines are angled up on the higher timeframes (4H and 1D). This means that the point at which buyers and sellers meet is increasing. In other words: we are trending up!
Now: the secret for setting your stop-loss. If the Han-ne line tells us where the equilibrium is over the short/medium/long term, periods where the line remains flat are significant. If a Han-ne line, especially Kijun-Sen or Senko Span B, remains flat for multiple periods, it means that midprice has been established by many buyers and sellers.
We can use these flat Han-ne lines as:
1. Support/resistance
2. Zones to place stop-loss orders
As I look at a pair like USDJPY trending up, I am zooming into the lower timeframes (think: 15m or 30m) and looking for flat Han-ne lines. If I see several "zones" forming I can place my stop-loss just near the other side of that zone. This means I can receive adequate protection, but also know that if the price does clear that zone and hit my order, a reversal or pullback is likely happening and it will be a good time to exit anyway.
We've already seen a flat Kijun-Sen line act as support on the 15m chart:
You can use this concept for any pair, currency, stock, crypto, etc. The secret is to look for flat lines and use these as your support/resistance levels and stop-loss zones.
Happy trading!
potentiel paires hebdomadaire salut chers amis!
la semaine dernière , fut un peu troublante avec les annonces à n'en point finir et des retours macroéconomiques . J'avais donc jugé bon de m’abstenir de certaines analyses qui n'ont pas trouvés de validations qui me semblait probantes .
Alors cette semaine j'ai quatre paires de devises à surveiller .
1-AUD/USD (vert/orange) qui semble maintenir la tendance de la semaine dernière .
2-EUR/USD (rouge/orange) je serai en neutre sur cette paire en attendant un bon signal ichimoku .
3-CAD/USD (violet/orange) , sur cette paire je me prononcerai plus sur la paire USD/CAD qui me semble intéressante .
4- GBP/USD (bleu/orange) .
rendez-vous sur mes analyses de la semaine .
merci.
Lesson: Predicting 14% Bitcoin Drop Using Ichimoku CloudIchimoku Cloud showed us to expect strong price action here.
Lesson: set stop-losses below reversal areas and Fibonacci support.
Notes:
Tenkan-sen calculation: (highest high + lowest low)/2 for the last 9 periods.
^ it is time to change our way of thinking
- minor support/resistance
Kijun-sen calculation: (highest high + lowest low)/2 for the past 26 periods.
^ basis, guideline, yardstick
- support/resistance & trailing stop
- indicator of future price
Senkou span A calculation: (Tenkan-sen + kijun-sen)/2 plotted 26 periods ahead.
Senkou span B calculation: (highest high + lowest low)/2 calculated over the past 52 time periods and plotted 26 periods ahead.
^ start off before the others
Kumo (cloud) is the space between senkou span A and B. The cloud edges identify current and potential future support and resistance points.
- height represents volatility
- strong support/resistance
- Bullish when Senkou Span > Senkou Span B and vice versa when markets are bearish.
- Look for Kumo Twists in future clouds, where Senkou Span A and B exchange positions, a signal of potential trend reversals.