Learnforex
How to trade markets in both directions using true SMC conceptsHello Traders, in this post we aim to explain how we can trade the markets in both directions. Since this comes under the concept of liquidity, it is very logical to trade in both the directions of the market. Please pay attention to the annotations made on the chart.
Happy Trading
Team Lamda
How To Draw Bat Harmonic Pattern In this simple lesson, we will learn together how to draw a bat pattern
About the School of Harmonic Analysis
The harmonic analysis school is about certain patterns that occur on the chart that give an indication of a reversal in the trend, using Fibonacci ratios, and it is considered one of the most important schools in technical analysis that many analysts rely on in the world.
The school consists of more than one model, but in brief, we will learn the most important and most frequent models on the chart.
Today with the first pattern, which is the bat pattern.. Please follow the instructions on the chart and for any questions, please put a comment
WHY YOU SHOULD PAPERTRADE FOREX DEMO ACCOUNT BEFORE REAL $$$$$Hey Traders so today I wanted to take a step back and show beginners how to papertrade the Forex Market. Although some believe papertrading is not the same as real trading. I believe if you take the papertrading account seriously you will gain many benefits. You will get experience, learn discipline, gain confidence, and test your results to see if you are truly ready to open real account.
Enjoy!
Happy Trades,
Clifford
Change your mindset - Dont Trade Forex.... Invest in Currencies I had been looking to do a market breakdown this weekend but to be honest, all the opportunities in the market have already been shared in my previous ideas posted.
So instead I am going to share a topic I have spoken to a lot of my followers about recently. The mindset of trading, or should I say investing... because that is really how you need to see it if you want to be able to trade consistently with confidence and conviction in your ideas.
Lots of people, especially newcomers to trading and FOREX simply see a chart and make a decision if the line is going up or down. A guess, a gamble. Even though I know we ave all done this at some stage, its not a strategy that will mean you are still successful in 5, 10. 20 years.
If you want to make money in this industry you need to have the mindset that you will still be doing this in 5, 10, 20 years. Once you start doing that it gives you a calmness to think though each trade like an investment.
So, before we get into this - I will explain the difference between a trade and an investment.
- A trade is something you are typically taking a position on leverage and for the short term, a few minutes / hours / days. Typically you are only looking at one only that chart and have a clearly defined exit if the trade goes into loss.
- An investment is something you decide to take a position in based on the underlying facts/fundamentals of what you are buying, the price is secondary. You consider more than just that one chart you are placing the position on and are willing to hold it indefinitely whether its in drawdown or not because you know the underlying fundamentals are right for you investment to come good in time.
So once you see the difference, which mindset and process is likely to play out successfully in 5, 10, 20 years time? Which mindset is likely to give you less stress while in positions? Which mindset will give you confidence and conviction in your positions?
All of this confidence and conviction in your positions is based in knowledge - In this industry, knowledge truly is power!
So when I say dont trade forex .... invest in currencies its because the mindset of trading forex is based in looking for quick wins, get rich quick stories and rented Lamborghinis. Whereas investing in currencies is based on the mindset to still be doing the same thing in many years time. Its the difference between aiming to be rich or to be wealthy.
The process of trading forex is looking at EURUSD and wanting to go short because of a chart pattern or something you have seen in the chart.
The process of investing in currencies is to be looking at the Dollar and seeing strength across a number of different charts involving the dollar such as DXY, USDJPY, GBPUSD. And then also having a separate opinion of weakness in the Euro by doing the same thing and considering the Euro across a number of different charts. - Once you have identified both strength in the Dollar and weakness in the Euro you are able to confidently invest in shorting EURUSD. At this point you have conviction in your position.
Please let me know your thoughts in the comments and for more posts like this follow me.
WHAT TOPICS WOULD YOU LIKE ME TO COVER?Hi Guys - all my followers and non followers..
I am getting back to releasing weekly episode/episodes of the ' Art of trading Psychology' in the aim of helping traders get in the 'zone' when trading. Mastering trading psychology is by far one of the hardest aspects in trading yet it is also the one that will drive you to you success as a trader if mastered.
I would truly love to cater this podcast to you guys and in order to do so, i need to understand what it is you're struggling with and what you would like to cover i.e
- finding taking profit hard?
- being consistent
- scared to take a trade or uneasy when you're in a trade?
- Losing too much?
Anything you think of, drop it in the comments below or message me!!
Trade Forex Like an Investment BankWhat I will explain to you today is exactly how you should trade the Forex market and that few traders do.
What I am going to tell you has great value. You will hardly find that information in other videos or courses, and surely not for free. It comes from over 25 years of experience in financial markets, even as a fund manager.
I tell you immediately that if you are not willing to toil, it’s useless for you continuing to read. I won't give you the magic formula to get rich just by pressing a button.
Do you think I have become a professional trader, that is a person who trades for a living, in a day or month? I spent several years to study; I had a hard time (most of all at the beginning). I had to overcome several difficulties before I became the trader I am today.
Hard work, in trading like in every field of life, is the basis of success.
So, how should you trade the Forex market?
First, a mistake most Forex traders make is to consider a currency pair as a single market, a price. But a currency pair is not a stock or commodity.
Instead, you have to see a currency pair as two opposing economies. For example, you don’t have to see Eur-Usd as a single market, but as the Eurozone economy versus the American economy.
Why should you trade Eur-Usd like Apple or Facebook? On the one hand, you have an individual company, on the other side, two economies.
So, get used to considering a currency pair, not as a single market, a price, but as two opposing economies. Now you also understand why most traders who use technical analysis are losers. It’s certainly not an indicator in the overbought or oversold zone that makes a currency pair rise or fall.
After having understood this fundamental aspect of the Forex market, the next step is to buy the strength and sell the weakness. But to do that, you have to compare the two economies.
First equation :
strong economy means strong currency
and
weak economy means weak currency
So, let's see how you should proceed
First, for each economy, you need to research the macroeconomic data that make the currency market movements. And this is the simplest thing to do. Several sites show this data in real-time.
We can divide the main macroeconomic data into 4 areas:
1) Interest rates.
2) Growth (Gross Domestic Product).
3) Employment.
4) Inflation
Then, you have to compare and interpret the data to understand, for both the economies, what the situation is. And this, at least initially, is a little less simple.
You have to create two tables, one for each of the economies, and insert the main macroeconomic data. Once you have completed this step, by using the data, you need to compare the two economies to figure out which one is stronger. You can also create a graph with Excel or other software for each data, so as to get a more immediate visual image.
For example, if the graph of the unemployment rate in the United Kingdom is falling while that of the United States is moving sideways, even though the American economy remains stronger than the British one, right now it’s the British economy that is strengthening over the American one.
Second, you have to read the reports of the central banks, and listening to the speeches (or reading the transcripts) of their Presidents.
These are fundamental to understand the monetary policy implemented by each central bank. Also, you find the situation in the country and often a vision of the world economy. Statements and Minutes are therefore essential for understanding the next moves of a central bank concerning interest rates.
Second equation :
raising interest rates leads to a stronger currency
and
reducing interest rates leads to a weaker currency
The reports, and speeches of central bank Presidents, are essential also because the decisions on interest rates are sometimes known before their release. Which means that a decision has already been priced into the market.
It’s probably a process that may be difficult to implement initially, but believe me that, over time, you will be able to analyse a currency pair simply and clearly. Certainly, better than with technical analysis.
That was the first pillar of your Forex trading. You have seen how you have to analyse a currency pair. First, you have to see a currency pair not as a market, a price, but as two opposing economies. And then, you have not to use the technical analysis and indicators, but studying and understanding the fundamentals that drive a currency.
Now, let's see the second pillar.
After analysing a currency pair, you need to select your trade entry. But before…
Never forget : in the medium to long-term, it’s the fundamentals that drive a currency pair, but in the short-term, it’s speculation to do it.
For this reason, to buy for example Eur-Usd just because your analysis has told you that the currency pair will rise, it’s a bad idea.
So, how should you decide when to enter?
By using subjective probability.
I tell you that no strategy can give you the perfect trade entry. It’s all about probability.
Subjective probability is the numeric measure of chance (probability) that reflects the degree of a personal belief in the likelihood of an occurrence.
Subjective probability judgments are people's evaluations of the probability of uncertain events or outcomes. It contains no formal calculations and only reflects the subject's opinions and past experience.
Now, let's see how to use subjective probability, in trading.
Before, an Advice : avoid trading with many markets. Focus only on those you know well.
Because it’s essential to know well the currency pair that is being traded, how it behaves and moves, so you can understand what the key levels are. In this way, you will know which are the price levels with the highest odds of success for your trade entry.
Let me give you an example with the currency pair EUR-USD. Look at the chart above. You will certainly have noticed how the X.XX20 levels (i.e. 1.0920, 1.1020, 1.1120, 1.1220, etc.) for EUR-USD are often, not always, sensitive price levels.
That's just one aspect, a characteristic of EUR-USD. Once you understand how the currency pair moves, when you know it perfectly, you will no longer even need to open the chart to decide your trade.
And what about the take profit?
First, you need to know when to take your profit before opening the trade (you have to decide it in your trading plan). Then, it has to be a take profit statistically achievable and have a Risk/Reward at least 1:1.
To select your take profit, you have to put into the field all your knowledge of that currency pair, and how you did with the trade entry, use subjective probability.
This was the second pillar of your Forex trading. You have seen how to select your entry and exit points in trade. You have to use subjective probability, and thanks to your experience and knowledge of a currency pair, choose the trade entry with the higher odds of success.
Now let's see the third and final pillar. How to select the stop-loss and cancel the emotions.
It is well known that success in trading is determined by our emotionality. You have to put yourself in the best conditions to trade.
The problem with the management of emotions is that we are all different. So, it’s impossible to have a system that works for everyone, without distinction.
To erase your fears, anxieties, before opening the trade, you have to decide how much you are willing to lose with that trade. Then, you have to set the stop-loss on equity, that is the current value of your trading account, not the price.
But where to set the stop-loss?
You have to use the Value-at-Risk (VaR).
Value-at-Risk measures the potential loss in value of a risky asset or portfolio over a defined period for a given confidence interval.
The key elements of Value-at-Risk are:
1. a specified level of loss in value;
2. a fixed time period over which risk is assessed (1 day, 1 week, etc.);
3. a confidence interval (usually 95% or 99%)
Let’s see an example. If the Value-at-Risk on Eur-Usd is 1.81% at one-week, 95% confidence level, there is an only a 5% chance that the value of Eur-Usd will drop more than 1.81% over any given week.
Unfortunately, here I can't explain the calculation, but you can find it on my Forex e-Book and for free on the internet, in particular on YouTube.
At this point, all you have to do is calculate the correct position size to open, based on the maximum loss that you are willing to suffer, and that you must have already decided in your trading plan.
That's the way to dispel your doubts about how to set the stop-loss, how to cancel your emotions because using the Value-at-Risk, you are working like an investment bank, a fund manager.
This was the third and final pillar of your Forex trading. You have seen how to cancel your emotions thanks to Value-at-Risk. Now you have all the information to become a profitable trader in Forex trading, to trade like an investment bank.
You can get significant results in Forex trading, maybe even better than mine, but only if you apply what I explained to you, and you will work hard.
Happy trading to you all!
Is Taking Small Profits Bad Habit In Trading?Answer is, it depends! ( no surprise here ;) ) So now let's talk about, it really depends on what factors.
What does taking a small profit means?
If we talk about Forex trading then, taking anything less than 5 pips of profit is generally considered as small profit where usually people target roughly 30+ pips of gain in normal circumstances ( or taking profit well below the so called risk/reward ratio in range of 1:2 at least or healthy 1:3).
Why is it not good?
Keep on taking tiny profits compared to the strategy's original profit objective is certainly a path of destruction, sooner or later.
For example, your trade plan is to short EURUSD risking $50 and trying to make $100 ( 1:2 risk/ reward ). Here you enter short @1.1350 and expecting the downside of at least 1.12. Now suddenly trade starts moving in another direction and it goes up just near your stop-loss of 1.1400. But luckily trade survives and now it is trading around 1.1350, right where it all started and testing your patience. Now volatility dies down and it just stays there and in the excruciating moments of impatience and despair, you close the trade @1.1348 with great sigh of relief.
Here the problem is that if you keep on trading this way then one day, your account will be empty for sure. Because, here taking 2 pips of profit and keeping 50 pips stop-loss guarantees that you are paving the path of ruining your account, unless, you are sure that you are never going to lose a trade in your life! Because simply, just one bad trade will ruin your accumulated profit from 25 trades.
So in any scenario where your risk/reward is not optimized with trading strategy, you are never going to win the game.
Not all tiny profits are created equal !
If a trade plan is to take 100 pip profit and you have entered the trade from multiple entry points and taking tiny profit whenever market is giving you a good chance to cover tiny positions while keeping the core position active then of course it is good way to keep making money.
What's my take.
All things which makes your trading rigid are problematic IMHO. Those rigidities can be from anything, e.g. your trade plan is not flexible enough to account for change in circumstances, fixed entries, fixed exits and fixed stop-loss are equally harmful.
Especially in current atmosphere of very low volatility and lack of meaningful long lasting 1000 pip trends, it is imperative to take small profits and there is a way to do it!. My own trading style is neither purely positional nor quick technical trading, it is kind of combination of many things. One thing to keep in mind is that most important thing is the 'Strategy' and everything else should evolve around it and not vice-versa. Because if you decide that my stop-loss is just 30 pip fixed and bla bla bla then you lose the flexibility in trading. A strategy should be in accordance with your personality, so that it keeps you at peace and in rhythm. Everybody's risk tolerance and personality traits are different and so are the trading styles. Copying some so called pundit's advice ( who him/her-self is not making money from trading ) of ideal trade plan and all other nonsense is totally useless. These preachers have put on so much BS all around that the beginner trader is surely going to be lost. To be a better trader, listen to eveybody but copy nobody. Keep knocking different doors until you find that magic!
My take is - One learns from one's own inner quest. Trading is transcendental. The more you know yourself, the better trader you become. Everyone can be a good trader but very few will because, few are ready, prepared and patient to toil to find the true depth :)