Learning the BARR Top Pattern : Chainlink; is the run over?IF Chainlink does not claim 13$ again soon we may be putting in a bearish retest of a BARR TOP (Bump & Run TOP) Pattern.
The pattern is explained below and there are some obvious key area to watch on the LINK/USDT Chart.
Note the below image of Bitcoins run to 20000 as a comparison of a successful BARR TOP.
The Bump And Run Reversal Top (BARR Top):
• Follows strong bull market at steep angle
• Initial “bump”, followed by a hook shaped movement reversal
• Sell on the retest key diagonal trendline or buy if the pattern fails and reclaims the trendline
• GOOD SUCCESS RATE
Price has a strong uptrend off in two phases - the bump & the run, first a small increase then recovery occurs, then price increases with massive volume at a very sharp angle. The BARR Signifies a trend change from strong Bull to strong Bear market.
Price then makes a sharp peak and comes down breaking the support line the angle of this support line is usually around a 35-50 degree angle. It then throws back and bearish retests off that previous support (this is the entry point), its common for this rejection to be at the 0.618 fibonacci level.
Link has already made its sharp peak and has rejected right off the diagnol BARR trendline.
Log scale is to be used when identfying pattern. The possible price target is the start of the pattern, BARR Tops usually have strong breakouts but do not always hit price target.
Note how in the chart of LINK USDT we are rejecting right off the 0.618 fibonacci level, until price gets back above that LINK may continue to decrease in value.
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I look foward to hearing your comments.
LINKUSDT
Lesson - Why You Don’t Short StrengthCheck out my full post at:
www.derzzycharts.com
Everyone makes mistakes, and I just made one with LINK. Sometimes you step away from your process on a feeling and then you quickly remember why you have a process. Candlestick patterns are not my strong suit. I really don’t utilize them that much and they are an area that I could definitely study more. I don’t even trade in color! This is an emotional tactic that I personally use to fade my own trading emotions.
Anyways, I shorted LINK with the right risk at 1% of my portfolio, and learned very quickly why you do not short strength. I did this because I thought I had scoped out a blow off top long upper shadow (bearish). I did not even consult my other indicators! The cloud is bullish, the MACD is bullish, and the RSI just put in its first bearish divergence (which in my process is not the time to short, but to exit profitable positions).
So as a reminder to myself and everyone out there, short weakness, buy strength, not the other way around! Follow your decision making process because when your wrong, at least your wrong for the right reasons. In the case of my process, wait for the RSI to break through 40 and fail at 60 before entering a short.
Happy Trading!
Brandon Anderson
brandon@derzzycharts.com
@derzzycharts
www.derzzycharts.com
LINK is the link to learn the Harmonics/Chart Patterns with FibsThose interested in harmonics and chart patterns must play with LINK-USDT as this volatility has been a treat for the harmonic traders and those interested in research on Harmonic and Chart patterns using Fibonacci levels. Each of the pattern drawn on chart will have to be carefully analysed using Fib retracement and Fib extension based on type of the pattern such as AB-CD, BAT/Gartley, Shark, Crab, Butterfly, Double Top/Bottom, H&S, 3 drive etc. (Not all spotted here), but you get the idea.
LINKUSDT TRADING COMBINING MACD-STOCH-ADXThis is a strategy that is very simple.
We know MACD signal line over zero line indicates bullish o longing area. Below zero line is bearish o shorting area.
In this chart i show example of entries and exits with very good results:
- At the time when signal line crosses over 0, we enter long position. We are going to exit when MACD crosses below signal. We will reenter a long position when MACD crosses again above signal line.
- At the time when signal line crosses below 0, we enter short positions. We are going to exit when MACD crosses above signal. We will reenter a short position when MACD crosses again below signal line.
As you can see, following this, we had 3 exit trades (100%-130%-30%) and one with no profits-loses. Now signal is crossing above zero line, so we should've entered long position.
I am using more indicators, but i want to show here how other indicators can help you avoiding bad signals.
Stoch: When you are longing a position, you should close your position if stochastic goes to overbought territory and goes out from there (blue !). Same if you are shorting and stoch goes to oversold territory and goes out, SPECIALLY if some divergence is happening.
ADX: As you should know, you will improve your results when you trade in favour of a trendy chart. ADX over 20 indicates PA is trendy. So, if there's a signal of longing or shorting when ADX is below 20, you should be careful, and even avoid trading (For example no entering the two shorts positions i played on chart).
Future post i will explain other indicators and plans.
Thank you all