Follow Through Day's and Market BottomsIt’s said that three out of every four stocks will follow the trend of the general market. It’s also known that the best opportunities come when a bear market ends, and a fresh new uptrend begins. The question is, how do you know when a new uptrend starts?
The Follow Through Day
A Follow Through Day was defined by William O’Neil as “when one of the major market averages moves up over 1.25% on heavier volume than the previous day.” A Follow Through Day usually occurs sometime between days 4 and 12 of an attempted rally.
When to Start Counting Rally Days
While the market is in a down trend, you are waiting for the first day the market closes positive to start counting your attempted rally days. The first positive day is day 1 of the rally attempt. On day 4 or later you are looking for the Follow Through Day to occur.
How Does a Follow Through Day Fail
Not every follow through day works, but no bull market has started without one. All days of the rally do not need to be up, some may be down, however a follow through day officially fails when the low of day 1 of the rally attempt is undercut. When this happens, it is time to start looking for a new day 1 and another follow through day.
It is not uncommon to have multiple attempted rallies and failed follow through days before the market begins a new uptrend. Let’s look at a few market bottoms from the past reviewing the concepts covered.
Nasdaq 1998 Bottom
SPX 1974 Bottom
Marketbottom
💡How To Use Market Leaders to Spot a Potential Bottom❗️Lets take a break from stuffing our bags with money and look quick at an example of spotting the market bottom using what's called a market leader, a very simple technique that can be very effective for both shorter and longer term trades.
In general the market right now is very alt focused, we can tell that by looking at how low bitcoin dominance is, and how the alt cap is climbing both with btc and with the general market cap.
When we're dealing with an alt focused market there's generally going to be a hot ticket item, little while back it was ETH, now it's DOGE again as it's the media darling and Elon is on SNL soon to decide the fate of every leveraged DOGE trader in one monologue.
We call this asset the "Market Leader", because it leads the market. Complex, I know.
We can identify these assets by their movements during catalyzing BTC movements, generally corrections down are the easiest to see - which is what we have an example of here. Also fundamental analysis of the news can give us a good idea of what may or may not be a market leader.
When we see a correction down, and all of a sudden a coin starts moving contrary to the correction at a level that could very well be the bounce point on our BTC and index charts; we know it's either a Pump and Dump if it's a shitcoin or that coin is probably the market leader for either the short term or potentially longer term.
In this case we see our lord DOGE, which now has a stupidly high market cap because people are inherently greedy apes, basically hit it's higher low and start rebounding almost exactly 1-hour before BTC started reacting.
The rest of the market of course followed and now we see there's a massive bounce and everyone's getting paid copious amount of money today. Fantastic.
OBVIOUSLY this is extremely potent information to have, as knowing when the market has reached it's general bottom means we can either close shorts, open longs, or both if you're one of the energetic variety.
So keep an eye out for this behavior on the markets in general - it's not always there but when it is, like ETH last week, it can lead you straight to the bank$$$