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Mastertheartoftrading

Smart Money and the why behind it I have used @TradingView for near enough 10 years now. What I like about the platform is the simplicity and the tools. I often get asked about things like strategy or other people's techniques - "What do you think of SMC or this guy or that guy" Look, when it comes to trading - Liquidity is something very little people understand. Gurus talk about it and draw pretty lines but still fail to break it down as to why it's there in the first place. "Ah it's where the big boys buy or sell" so to help visualise this lets use some of these tools here on Tradingview. Look at my first chart here; What I have done is jumped up a timeframe and placed a volume profile tool on my chart, then simply used the drawing tool to draw a squiggle around the relevant nodes. I then dropped back to the smaller timeframe and switched on a couple of indicators to help visualise where the liquidity is. if you look at the lines 15minutes and 30minutes both in green and cast your eyes to the right, can you see they sit just below (as price is coming from above) to those higher volume nodes from that higher timeframe? Let's use another tool here on TradingView; This one is called a fixed range volume profile. the two blue lines extended out are known as the value area high and low. Often this is set to around 70-75% but I like to reduce that a little. The red line is called a PoC or point of control. This basically means the highest transactional point of the range you fixed. However, if you look over to the left this time you will see two higher volume nodes (mountains) and therefore look at the 15m and 30m lines again with fresh eyes. In this next image I have increased the range and dragged it over to include more data. I could write full strategies on this tool alone. The first thing you should notice is the PoC has now jumped up higher. Think logically about this for a second. We are seeking lower timeframe liquidity down low and the area of interest and value is showing price was accepted up high. So, after grabbing liquidity, would we anticipate the price to continue down lower or come back to play in the accepted zone? This is where a lot of newer traders fail, especially when trading smart money concepts "SMC" for short. They fail to understand the bigger picture. Another little tool in the same box-set is the Timeprice indicator. Much like session volume this gives a pretty clean view and of course settings can be adjusted. I like the look on this one, it's very modern. But the real value isn't until you zoom in and zoom in and you see why it's called Time - Price. I'll leave that for another post. But continuing the theme of this post; look at the clusters of the time price indicator and note where the PoC sits on the 15m liquidity level. Then below the 30m liquidity is the lower side of the value area. Are you starting to see a theme? In this last image; I have simply highlighted liquidity to keep my chart clean. You will see candles showing the last buys before the selloff. Then a consolidation under the liquidity - this is basically a Wyckoff structure prior to a mark down move. We then drop into the liquidity pocket and here is where most SMC traders would be jumping long. We see a very nice little rally, then a large fast drop through the liquidity, this hitting many stops and triggering new short positions. which is why as these shorts get triggered, you anticipate the pullback - to what level? Well look left and the charts will tell you. I hope this has opened a few eyes - go away and have a play with these indicators on @TradingView and feel free to aks if you have any questions. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
4
New Volume Footprint option on TradingViewHi all, This is the first (stream replacement) educational video with a very quick overview of volume. Tradingview just released the new Footprint Beta tool. It's something I asked them for a long time ago, so I am glad it's finally here! In this video I cover the time-price-opportunity tool as well as visible and fixed range. Leading into footprint. This is not a deep dive, it's more an intro to and how these things come together. If there is enough interest in this idea I will create a sequence based on trading volume in depth. Thanks for watching! See you on the next stream/idea.
Editors' picks
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
11
Making your first million is the hardestAfter that, it's leverage. The issue for me as a long-time trader, is people these days don't seem to have time, patience or the ability to absorb information. They read an article or watch a few seconds of a stream and assume they know! I am not just talking crypto, I mean in general. The attention span of a fish. I read a pretty decent article by this guy @holeyprofit He talked about Bitcoin Mania with a lot of truth, most people won't want to hear. Article here The issue is the whole market right now are currently hinging on or near their all-time highs, Gold, Bitcoin, SPX (S&P500) stocks such as Meta, NVIDIA and loads of others. Instead of shouting for even greater highs, the question should be "what is sustaining the rally?" For the majority of retail traders, they assume it's different this time. Gamestop was up until it was not. The issue is that they never learn. They have no concept of time factors and the assumption that markets only ever go up is the very reason the majority of traders stay broke. Crypto is a really interesting space, when I first got involved in 2011, it was a punt. I got lucky, but buying cheap and selling high is what most people strive for. Yet, reading posts and social media content - nobody sells, they all buy low, stacking sats when the price drops. So where is the profit? Well paper gains I assume. Game stop... Not to focus on Crypto; the markets as a whole can be profitable and just like Kenny Rogers said - "if you're going to play the game boy, you got to learn to play it right. know when to hold, know when to fold, know when to walk away and know when to run" Every hand's a winner - every hand's a loser. Key message there!!! Trading vs investments - if you are looking to make it big on one deal, that's different than profiting from the market every week, every month and every year. Risk management is key, scaling your account, cutting losers quickly and adding to winners. Many won't understand this concept. Markets go up and everyone is a genius in a bull market. Once you start scaling an account, the trade percentages in terms of rewards you seek don't matter the same. You don't need 10x returns on your thousand dollars. A 3% win on your million-dollar account is a different game. Back in 2021; I wrote this educational post about the psychology of the markets. I used the Simpsons as a way to get the message over. Markets breathe and the rise and fall, rise and fall. Once you realise you can take from the market consistently, you will see the stress disappear, and the care of price up or down matters less. Your investment criteria changes and the scope gets wider. This is how you scale from that first million, into the second and third. Not having all eggs in one basket and hope it goes up forever. What if gold drops 10% and you are long? can you afford a 5 year spell on the investment you have? These are the kinds of questions you need to be asking yourself. What if Bitcoin's halving is a buy the rumour, sell the news and we take another 3 years to get back to a new ATH? "ah it's different this time" - yeah I heard all that in 2021 when certain influencers were calling for $135,000 worse case within a month. We are 2024 and still roughly half of the way to 135k?? I know for you guys who want to learn and progress you would have read this far; for those who "already know" they have stopped reading about 4 lines in and seeing a picture or 2. They leave a comment due to their keyboard warrior mindset and fish-like capacity for thinking. The point is to ensure you deploy proper risk management, especially here near the tops of a lot of these markets, trail your stop losses, and don't forget to cash out your profits. Paper gains can quickly become paper losses. If you're serious about money making, be prepared to diversify, be prepared to sit on your hands, keep cash in your pocket as well as be prepared to take calculated risks. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
4
Bitcoin REALISM I am definitely not going to win any popularity competitions with my comments and thoughts. But that's not the point when it comes to making money. The main issue for me still in Crypto Land is the lack of realism. The image on the front cover was from a google search of "realism" I guess the confused face made my day. This is exactly how you need to be looking when you read these points below. I have explained the logic of every major move over the last couple of years and this guys - is no different. So let's start by exploring the reality of market cap for one. When you buy a stock you have a number of stocks in circulation times that by the price and you can get a market cap. Of course, unlike most companies on the exchange Bitcoin CANNOT just issue new stock. We have to remember some Bitcoin are gone and lost forever so this number will likely end up around 20million and not the full 21m. The current Market cap is roughly 19,806,000 x $42,897. Let's call it a little over 820 Billion. At the ATH of $69,000 we saw $1.302 Trillion. Lets look at what is needed and an angle of attack if Bitcoin was to hit $500k by Jan 25, 26, 27, 28 or 2029. This is only one aspect of the story. Prior to the ETF launch people were saying silly things like "Trillions coming in, $100k imminent" Blackrock's largest ETF is roughly $354 Billion. This is the SP500 fund founded back in 2001. So 23 years old roughly now. Here's the actual chart. What does this mean? Well, let's say Blackrock decided to close their biggest ETF and throw it all into Bitcoin. That level would still not take us back to the current ATH. Bullish, Bullish, Bullish - we are still $25,000+ under the current ATH. So what about other ETF's? Obviously the market is bigger than just Blackrock. Let's look at this aspect too. Look at the end of 2021 as the ETF market collectively was at it's high. We are talking about $10Trillion in 8,552 ETF's. I've posted several times about the current COT landscape. Clearly social media Bitcoin is buzzing and everyone is about to become rich, it's different this time and so on. Well, COT says otherwise. Back at the top when everyone was calling for $135,000 I said the reason for the drop would be liquidity. So why is this different? I said there were two likely scenario's on the table as we moved down. The first was we were in an early stage accumulation, we needed to go up to 32k and back down to the low 20's. This would allow us to travel much higher and sustain such a large move. The second option was bearish. Well, I guess the second move played out. The momentum is still clearly not with us - we are still FWB:25K + under the current ATH - not what one would or should expect after 12 Bitcoin specific ETF's obtaining approval & launching. Look at the momentum People seem to fall into the echo chamber and all logic leaves the building. I have been at this game a long, long time. Seen it all before and I am sure I will see it again. This does not mean I am Bearish or anti Bitcoin - not for one second. I am one of the lucky ones in at the right time, sold a lot on the way up and happy with the current holdings. All I am trying to emphasis here - is don't get sucked into the void which is not supported by ANY sound logic. I recently watched a couple of video's with Warren Buffet, another with Jim Rickards. They both explained something very interesting in a very clear way. Although Anti Bitcoin - what they said made a lot of sense. The same lesson kinda applies to things like gold. When you buy an asset, the asset can produce for you. So assume you buy a house - you get rental income each month and with the price of the property going up over time you make gains there. Buy a business same thing - Buffet explained this using a farm as the example. Sell grains, cows or whatever you farm. Over time you still hold the asset. This isn't true for the likes of diamonds, gold or Bitcoin. Hence it fits into the greater fool theory. If I sell you my last bitcoin I picked up for less than $200. You buy it all today at $42,850. You have to find someone else willing to pay you more than the $42,850 in the future. For me, this is the main reason I don't personally care up or down or sideways here. But many in the echo chamber do. The average price across the breakeven addresses are around $37k - this is Breakeven not profit. So imagine majority of the retail crowd with an average entry after DCA'in at $37k. These are all things to keep in mind when your playing shorter term moves. ETF's are structured in such a way long term growth can be expected, volatility get's somewhat reduced. You noticed what's happened on the weekends since the launch? So whilst I expect it to go up in the long run. We need a healthy pullback as to be expected. This gives more time for real accumulation to happen - but this will also put some stress on that average (BE) level of $37k. Just keep this in mind and one more thing if you want to comment on "oh your wrong - up only" give some logic to support it or I won't bother responding. This move will take time. For me, nothing has changed since 2022. We are not ready for new highs - YET... Anyway enjoyed or not I thought it was worth another educational post. Stay safe! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Editors' picks
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
74
Time is everythingA lot of people see a Bitcoin pullback, a drop or a red candle as a negative thing. Clearly this is lack of experience, lack of understanding and only ever seeing re-assurance of the one bias they can comprehend. Many people believe my posts to be negative or anti Bitcoin - you could not be more wrong, as a very early holder, I simply don't care - up down or sideways. It's been kind to me and I will say it was more luck than judgement. Right place, right time. But as a professional trader, money manager and tech investor - I have seen my fair share of market trends, hype, realism and shocks in the market to know. Time is all it takes. You can go back over SPX for example and If you buy and hold the trend has only been up. Obvious its one of indices designed to go up. This does not make it a "get rich quick scheme" For me the problem lies in the cult esq mentality and the desire to get rich quick. When you have, or manage a larger fund - time is always less of an issue, when a Limited partner of a fund told me the company hold period was 15-20 years on average, it took a while to let that sink in. 1% of a lot of money is a lot of money, 1% of a $10,000 pushes you to want more - hence jumping on the up only bandwagon. You need to remember; Last year I posted two options for Bitcoin; I said my preferred route put us in early stage accumulation. The second option went back even further than that, it's the Evil move I said I would hope Composite Man would not be as cruel. Unfortunately with the move from 32k to 48k region, it's clear now the second play has in-fact been the one playing out. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- So here's some rational logic - the medicine most DO NOT WANT to swallow. People seem to throw the same argument - ETF & Halving - They have very little else to contribute. So let's look at what an ETF is and does. An Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) itself doesn't inherently stabilize an asset. However, the structure and mechanics of an ETF can have certain features that may contribute to perceived stability or liquidity in the underlying assets it represents. Here's how: Diversification: ETFs often hold a diversified portfolio of assets. By pooling together various assets like stocks, bonds, or commodities, they spread risk. This diversification can help mitigate the impact of poor performance in a single asset on the overall value of the ETF. Arbitrage Mechanism: ETFs have a unique creation and redemption mechanism. Authorized Participants (usually large financial institutions) can create or redeem ETF shares in large blocks, usually known as creation units. This process involves exchanging a basket of assets for ETF shares or vice versa. This helps to keep the market price of the ETF close to the Net Asset Value (NAV) of its underlying assets, promoting stability. Liquidity: ETFs are traded on stock exchanges, providing investors with liquidity. The ability to buy or sell shares throughout the trading day at market prices contributes to the perception of stability. The underlying assets might not be as easily tradable, but the ETF itself can be bought or sold like a stock. Market Makers: In the secondary market, market makers play a crucial role in providing liquidity. They continuously quote buy and sell prices for the ETF shares, helping to ensure that there is a smooth and efficient market. This can reduce the impact of large buy or sell orders on the market price. Now for some extra therapy, we also need to look at the realistic timeframes these large players operate at. Blackrock's most popular ETF is their SPX (S&P500) fund. with it's inception around 2001 I believe. $354BN. Now if we look at Bitcoin's market cap - we dropped from $1.3 Trillion at the 69k High down to around 300Billion at the 15k low region. So working out market cap is simple current price of Bitcoin x coins in circulation. (just over 19m). This is just highlighting the obvious; Blackrock is not going to empty the SPX fund and stick $350Billion in a newly established fund. Again time, they have enough money to not need to force or risk anything on a large scale. But what is interesting is the point above about market makers. In Wall Street terms, a market maker is a financial institution or individual that facilitates the buying and selling of financial instruments in a market. Market makers play a crucial role in ensuring liquidity and maintaining orderly trading in financial markets, including stock exchanges. Here are key aspects of what market makers do: Liquidity Providers: Market makers stand ready to buy or sell a financial instrument (such as stocks, bonds, or options) at publicly quoted prices. This activity provides liquidity to the market, allowing investors to execute trades quickly and efficiently. Bid and Ask Prices: Market makers quote bid and ask prices for a security. The bid price is the price at which they are willing to buy, and the ask price is the price at which they are willing to sell. The difference between these prices is known as the bid-ask spread. Order Execution: When an investor places a market order to buy or sell a security, the market maker ensures that the trade is executed promptly by matching it with their own inventory or finding a counterparty in the market. Risk Management: Market makers take on some level of risk by holding an inventory of securities. To manage this risk, they continuously adjust their bid and ask prices based on market conditions and changes in the supply and demand for the securities. Arbitrage Opportunities: Market makers may engage in arbitrage, exploiting price differences between related financial instruments or markets. This helps ensure that the prices of the same or similar securities are consistent across different trading venues. Maintaining Orderly Markets: Market makers contribute to the overall stability and efficiency of financial markets by preventing excessive volatility and ensuring a continuous flow of trading. It's important to note that market makers profit from the bid-ask spread and trading volumes. While they facilitate trading and provide liquidity, they also manage their own risks. Market makers can be institutions like investment banks or specialized firms with expertise in particular markets. They play a crucial role in the smooth functioning of financial markets by facilitating the buying and selling of securities. ============================================= Market makers have been referred to another type of Composite Man. The term "Composite Man" is associated with the Wyckoff Method, a technical analysis approach to understanding the stock market. The Wyckoff Method was developed by Richard D. Wyckoff, a stock market trader and educator from the early to mid-20th century. According to this method, the Composite Man represents a hypothetical market manipulator or a group of large market participants who have the power to influence the market. In Wyckoff's view, the Composite Man is an entity that accumulates or distributes stocks in a way that leaves footprints on the price and volume charts. The actions of the Composite Man are believed to be observable through the analysis of price and volume patterns, helping traders and investors anticipate potential future price movements. Here are the key ideas associated with the Composite Man in the Wyckoff Method: Accumulation and Distribution: The Composite Man is thought to go through phases of accumulating or distributing a particular stock or market. During accumulation, the Composite Man is buying, and during distribution, they are selling. Wyckoff Price Cycle: The Wyckoff Method outlines a price cycle that includes phases such as Accumulation, Markup, Distribution, and Markdown. Traders using this method attempt to identify these phases on price charts to make more informed decisions. Smart Money: The Composite Man is sometimes referred to as the "smart money" because it is assumed to have more information and resources than individual retail traders. Monitoring the actions of the smart money is believed to provide insights into potential market trends. When I posted posts like this from the 65k high, it was due to these footprints being visible from space. As the price moved up from the 28k region to the current ATH. Similar thing. I am not here trying to drag it or you down, I am here trying to help see logic in the charts. As the move moved up, we had a fake ETF release, in essence thus pricing in the actual ETF. This is why for me, this scenario is the most likely in the current environment. Composite Man/Market makers are happy to use the fear and greed index, which is currently tilting heavy towards the greed side. Against retail traders who see ONLY UP as the only scenario available. The space is becoming more like a cult and it's feel more and more like the simple definition of a pyramid scheme. Again, I am not saying that's what it is - I am in at the bottom my cards are on the table. The space has become "if your friends join, they also need to invite more people, and the cycle continues. The person at the top gets money from everyone below, and the people at the bottom hope to make money by bringing in more people." The problem is, there's no real product or service being sold. The only way people make money is by getting others to join. Eventually, it becomes harder for everyone to find new people, and those at the bottom end up losing money because there aren't enough new members to support the structure. This kind of scheme is not fair or sustainable and can cause a lot of people to lose their money. Especially when the big boys get involved with very little regulation covering the people at the bottom. Just remember everyone was saying "anti banks, anti institutional yet celebrating the ETF's like a win" the issue here is it's likely to stabilise the asset, slowing the phases and cycles down to a more mellow growth curve over the next 20 years. In the grand scheme of things, it's great for the industry, but we can expect more manipulation prior to regulation, post regulation the percentage gains will narrow. Keep all of this in mind and remember it's what the majority wanted. Stay safe! have fun and see you on the next post. Hate comments always welcome - just please back them up with some logic and show you have more than 3 brain cells. 😉 Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
20
Market Algo or pain tradesI was reading another trading book today and much like watching the dumb money movie the other day, it prompted me to write another post. So, you may have heard the expression "the market is an Algorithm" whilst this is somewhat true, it's actually more a sequence, Ralph Elliott, Richard Wyckoff and Edward Jones knew this. In simple terms, the larger operators or what's known as sophisticated money - chase liquidity pools that are often areas Dumb Money have taken entries or placed stops. Now if it was as simple as this, you could simply write an indicator or be on the winning side 100% of the time. Unfortunately, there's a lot more to it! When I say the smart kids are taking the dinner money of the dumb kids, you need to appreciate the fact that winning whilst playing against retail traders is like putting the Patriots against your local under 12's side. Or like having the New Zealand All Blacks play against an old people's home in Pakistan. (I am not sure if Pakistan even have a 1st team in rugby). To gain some understanding, you need to appreciate there's such a thing as "pain trading". A "pain trade" refers to a situation in financial markets where a significant number of investors or traders find themselves on the wrong side of the market, leading to losses or discomfort. In other words, it describes a scenario in which the market moves in a way that causes the most amount of pain or financial losses to the largest number of participants. For example, if a majority of traders are positioned for a market to go up, a pain trade would be a sharp and unexpected decline in prices, catching those traders off guard and causing them losses. The term reflects the idea that markets often move in ways that inflict the most damage on the greatest number of participants. Understanding pain trades is important for investors and traders, as it highlights the potential risks of crowded trades and the importance of risk management strategies to mitigate unexpected market movements. Investors and traders often use various indicators, market sentiment analysis, and risk management techniques to try to avoid being caught on the wrong side of a pain trade. (Thanks ChatGPT for the summary). ====================================================== So take a company like Carvana for example... This type of move happens over and over again - creating cycles (But not always the same). In this image above you can see it's likely to have swept long stop losses and then rallied hard. You probably know about the Gamestop Saga. I wrote a post on that film recently. I talked about being on the wrong side - I can't get over how someone could be up $500,000 and still go broke? But it's all in the mindset. Liquidity is the name of the game. How do these things fit together? Well, Bitcoin is a prime example - retail mindset is "HODL, Buy the Dip, Diamond hands & Lambo" - whilst as a professional trader, it's enjoying your profits and buying/selling at the expense of the dumb money. These moves are shown as the last post, buy momentum. Here is the summary image from that post. Since we had a move up - retail seem to think it's up only, they seem to put all the eggs in the hope Blackrock and a halving will make them rich... I have read articles like this recently. After watching the Dumb Money film - you know where following the crowd goes. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Why is this an important lesson? It's all to do with pain, where is the maximum pain? Retail sentiment would suggest pain comes in the form of little movement, grinding prices in up moves and fast aggressive drops. Some context from Blackrock themselves: What is Blackrocks Biggest ETF? So again, let's add a little logic. Where is liquidity sitting? If and it's a big if - Blackrock get an ETF approved and it's half the size of their biggest ETF to date, let's then assume Retail flood in and match it dollar for dollar. That market cap would still put us roughly at the current ATH, given coins in circulation. This again just amplifies, why we are simply - NOT READY, YET!!! The move I didn't want in 2022, looks to be the biggest liquidity grab we are likely to see in the Bitcoin chart. We are very, very likely still in an A-B move up for the slow pain of coming back to build sustainable momentum. Have a Happy New Year all! Stay safe and see you in 2024! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
17
Trading AutomationI am just going to put it out there, as you know I have said time and time again in my streams. Personally, the whole automated trading concept is not for me. However, that’s not to say there are not some good strategies, tools and instruments that could work for some people. Risk tolerance, time frames, bull vs bear markets all play a role in trading. This is emphasised when the trading is automated. A few weeks back, myself and @Paul_Varcoe starting streaming about shorter timeframes and automation. We said we were working on something in the background – mostly to do with trading via prop firms. Here’s on of my streams on that topic. So, the next part was automation. Here's one of these streams: www.tradingview.com I have been lurking around a couple of services, tools and platforms – one of these is a company/product called 3Commas. A few things I found interesting. One of which is that it supports multiple cryptocurrency exchanges, allowing users to trade on various platforms using a single interface. For the Tradingview community this is a very useful option. You can even go as far as connecting your bot to one or more TradingView indicators of your choice, and the bot will automatically receive alerts and open trades accordingly. My reluctance of automation has always been, if a bot can do it – we won’t need Doctors or Police officers as they will all want to be professional traders. I have also spent some time in the money management sector and know the investment and effort some very large operators have put into the automation game. What I liked about this 3commas platform, is that it opens the door for retail to play in this world. Having access to trading bots that can execute trades automatically based on predefined strategies is one factor, it still requires users to set up custom trading strategies or choose from a marketplace of existing strategies developed by other users. So, what this means is if you have a specific trading strategy you can link directly from Tradingview and just allow it to open trades. I have taken this image as an example from their site, it’s easier than trying to write it myself. There also seems to be a lot of open-source code, literature and information readily available online. All beneficial factors if you’re planning on going down the automation route. Myself and Paul have been more conventional traders, operating in well established markets. But of course we have had our dabbles in alt coins, Bitcoin and so on. It seems to be the way the world is shifting. I have been using webhooks on Tradingview recently to trade Aussie dollar and Euro on smaller timeframes just sending an alert to one of my channels – but the ability to take out the execution stage is a new one on me. If you’re a crypto fanatic I can say this is worth a look for sure! When looking at this automation, I found another editors pick here on @TradingView So, although I know very little about the strategy or the individual trader @Bjorgum who wrote the article, it’s a great example of the type of power mixing things like 3Commas and Tradingview can yield. Throughout 2023 I have shown and shared several articles on Prop firm trading, shorter timeframes and even how to use Chat GPT to write Tradingview indicators. Link to one of them: www.tradingview.com My next step is to use chat GPT to program an indicator I can fully automate (market condition depending) to link to 3Commas using TV as the glue. Here’s an example of what I mean: I literally asked ChatGPT this question “can you write a pinescript version 4 code to enter trades based on pivot point breakouts taking profits at S2 and R2 with stop losses in the other direction at R1 and S1.” I got a reply; Before you ask - The code will probably get rejected to put out as an indicator as Pinescript will say “Pivot point indicators are readily available” but copy and paste my question above and you should get a similar result. Of course, this is only an example. Feel free to play around with your own strategies and concepts. The idea then is to take this through the papertesting and backtesting to refine a strategy that you feel comfortable with in terms of plugging into a bot and connecting to your broker. The whole concept for me is mind blowing, the fact that anyone can have a Tradingview account, use ChatGPT to build and indicator and execute a trade via your broker on a platform like 3Commas. Over the next couple of weeks I intend on digging a little deeper with these and either start with using ChatGPT to link a strategy via Tradingview into 3Commas or take a strategy or indicator off the shelf and test drive it in a stream or sequence of streams. Maybe give me some ideas, if you like? what timeframes? What instruments etc... This will be part of the educational, how to make trading automation a real thing series. Anyways! Enjoy the Holidays - Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to you all! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
2
People want to earn but not learnThe issue is everyone wants to make money (well, maybe not everyone) but nobody wants to take the time to learn how to do it properly. This is NOT a sales pitch by the way! it's FACT!! People often ask why I bash influencers so much, it's mainly for this reason. Majority of noobs, come into trading expecting to make a fortune. If only it was that easy, every man and his dog would be a professional trader. Over the years, I have talked about things like Bots and AI that are programmed to make you money - think logically, if again it is this easy wouldn't the founders go to the bank, loan $10million based on their results and just not bother selling and shilling to customers and retail. NOBODY wants to provide customer service, especially to the world's population. Unfortunately, regardless of the market. Trust me if you stick around long enough you get to see this behaviour in Forex, Commodities, Stocks and more recently crypto with a splash of A.I. The story goes pretty much the same way. "man (or woman) hears about an opportunity to make money through a thing called trading, they do their research which leads to the old You of Tube and that leads to "Lamborghini promises from kids with fake watches, drawing random trendlines on 3 minute charts" There's often a "sign-up" bonus if you click their shill link. So let's get this straight, they make money on watch time and those links you click. The reason I chose fish in the image above, is that most people have memories that last about 2 seconds. Mark Cuban said "everyone is a genius in a bull market" Algorithms work and influencers claim to be experts with 3 months of experience. Easy to show in a market only going one way. Trading is hard enough, let alone having the ability to lose money from scams. If a trading algorithms promises a 90% win rate - run and don't buy it. ============================================================== There are fundamental things to do and you can deploy to get you off on the right track. Firstly think of the obvious. 90% of new traders lose 90% of their money in only 90 days. Hence a 50% sign-up bonus whereby you think you gained "free cash" often has small print that you can't access it until you lost your original investment. Affiliates tend to get 25% or more of the deposit - the exchanges know full well, your about to lose your money. Second thing I try to emphasis for newer traders, is that you need to treat trading as a profession. You wouldn't watch a video and expect to be a doctor, you also wouldn't buy an algorithm or Artificial Intelligence software and expect to become New York's latest Hot Shot Lawyer You see where this is going? There is no secret sauce, no silver bullet and no short cuts. If you want to trade and make money trading, you need the basics. You need to keep doing the basics well and evolve your mindset more than a strategy. Areas that will really help you include proper risk management. If your willing to be sat in negative 20, 30 or even 50% equity positions. This won't take you long to lose your entire trading pot. Instead risking 1-2% with a risk strategy of 2 -1 or greater. it's a slower game, but it keeps you playing the game. If you take a 3 or even a 4 reward trade with only 1 risk. For every time you are right, it's giving you 4 times as much as when you are wrong. Imagine winning 20% of your trading days and still being at breakeven... simple 1:4 ratio. This is only one small aspect to keep in mind. As I mentioned above, if strategies or software is pitched with high percentage win rates - run. You need to understand the market acts differently and past results do not indicate future performance. Everyone is a genius in a bull market, remember. You do not need to go looking for the silver bullet. These strategies do not exist, instead spend the time working on strategies that can be consistent in various market conditions. This is no small task, your strategy might identify entries in a counter trend differently than it would in say a ranging market. The answer to resolve this, is BACKTESTING Don't just run your strategy on replay mode, although @TradingView has a great little tool for this. Spend the time to look at things such as "repainting" this means that when your strategy triggers an entry, does it disappear and reappear. If so, do some manual back testing. Then Dig deeper and analyse the type of market condition it was more profitable or less profitable. This could be things like "I lose more on a Monday, compared to other days" or when the market goes sideways, It triggers too many trades. I've written several articles here on pure education. Here's a few examples. In this post (worth clicking on) it has a whole bunch of lessons inside. Think of trading like you would a university course, there's plenty to learn but you can have some fun along the way! Stay safe! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Editors' picks
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
37
Level up your understandingThe Liquidity game is much, much easier than you think. Most people only want posts that align with their own beliefs, the reality is Bitcoin is becoming institutional and the more players coming does not simply equate to prices rising. Logic will tell you, these "professional money makers" will want better prices, the accumulation phase on this scale will have retail torn apart. Every $100 rally will feel like the time is now and every $50 drop will feel like the end is near. I've shared countless posts and live streams here, talking about the transition. Here's a whole new set of things to think about to educate yourself on the current situation. First of all here's one of the latest streams going into detail of some of the logic. www.tradingview.com In educational terms here we go. When price moves up and volume goes down, this is called divergence. Imagine you're at a party with your friends, and you see two people dancing together. One person is dancing really fast, moving a lot, and having a great time. The other person is dancing slowly and not moving much. This difference in their dance styles is like volume divergence in trading. In trading, volume refers to the number of shares or contracts that are traded in a specific time period. It's like how many people are buying and selling stocks or other financial assets. Volume divergence happens when the price of a stock or asset is going in one direction, like going up, but the volume is not matching it. For example, the price might be rising, but not many people are buying or selling it. It's like the dancing person who is moving fast (price going up) but not many people are joining the dance (low volume). Ok so step one, there is a clear divergence of volume... Next I can guarantee some people will question the relationship to the price. Well. I used a box to measure 50% of the move here, just to highlight the obvious. Look left and see the level to volume actually peaked higher on the right and then dropped off, so argument no longer valid. Secondly, the orange line represents the green spike in volume that we lack in the current move. Third point; Look at the Weiss wave moves, again I have covered this in several educational posts here as well as many of my streams, if you don't know what this is. Go back and look through the posts. I often use Weiss to justify a 3 wave in an Elliott wave move. It can quickly highlight the obvious level of impulsive nature. Or in this instance, the lack of. Zoomed in and then over to the monthly timeframe. So what you need to understand is that with lack of impulsiveness and clear divergence, what else can you see that backs up the logic? How about using Oscillators? The monthly stochastic clearly showing overbought. And an off the shelf OBV showing sideways balance If you can learn to read these simple points, your already onto a winner. Many newer traders have strategies that often include RSI, MACD or Moving Averages and 9 times out of 10 it's on too small a timeframe. "If in doubt, zoom out" Combining logical arguments to figure out where you are on the chart can help you develop a much better picture, if you still want to trade smaller times, then you have a bias based on the bigger picture. OK - so next, let's take a look at a slightly more advanced view. This is CVD (cumulative delta); What does the numbers mean? Imagine you have a piggy bank, and every day, you either put money into it or take some money out. The total amount of money you've put in or taken out is like the cumulative delta. In trading, cumulative delta is a way to keep track of the buying and selling activities in the market for a particular financial asset, like a stock. Instead of money, we use something called "contracts" or "shares" to represent the buying and selling. When traders buy a stock, it's like they are putting money into the piggy bank. And when they sell the stock, it's like taking money out of the piggy bank. The cumulative delta keeps track of the difference between the number of shares bought and the number of shares sold throughout the day or a specific period. This image above tracks the numbers for each swing. When coupled with other tools such as Footprint levels, you can see where the higher levels of liquidity is sitting. Now combine the stages above. Let's recap. Bigger players coming in will want better prices. We have divergence on volume. Weiss waves lack impulsiveness. Oscillators oversold or show sideways balance. CVD levels still mostly negative. Footprint key levels have wider gaps to the next layers of liquidity. =============================================================== Now, what else would be worth looking at? Well. one tool I have shared many times in the posts and streams is called COT. COT stands for "Commitment of Traders." It's like keeping track of who is doing what in a big game, but instead of players, we are talking about traders in the financial markets. Imagine you are playing a game with your friends, and you want to know who is on which team. You might have a list that shows how many players are on each team and what roles they play, like who's a striker, who's a defender, and so on. In trading, COT is a report that shows us how many traders are on each team, so to speak. It tells us how many traders are buying and how many are selling certain financial assets, like commodities (like gold, oil) or futures contracts (which are like agreements to buy or sell something at a specific price in the future) AND of COURSE BITCOIN. The COT report is released by official organizations, and it's based on data collected from traders who are required to report their positions in these markets. Why does this matter? revert back to bigger players in the market coming for Bitcoin... just like in a game, knowing which team has more players or which roles are in demand can give you a clue about the game's overall strategy. When we look at the COT report, we can see if there are more traders buying or if more are selling it. This information helps understand the market sentiment. If a lot of traders are buying, it might mean they have a positive outlook, and the price of the asset could go up. On the other hand, if many traders are selling, it might mean they are not so optimistic, and the price could go down. In COT terms, there are two major players I look for in the reports. Asset Managers COT Asset Managers are like assistants for the big investors, like hedge funds or investment firms. These big investors have a lot of money to invest in different things, like stocks, commodities, or other financial assets including Bitcoin. It is the Asset Managers' job to take care of these investments and make sure they are managed well. It's like they are the guardians of the funds. So Asset Managers view of Bitcoin currently seems to be positive. Now for the second player I look at in the COT report. Leveraged Funds Imagine you a bank that allows you to borrow money. You then use that money to invest... Leveraged Funds are a bit like that. They are investment funds that use borrowed money, or leverage, to try to make bigger profits. These funds can invest in different things but in this case their investing in Bitcoin. Here's how it works: Regular Investment: Let's say you have $10, and you decide to put it in a normal bank. Over time, your money might grow a little with interest, and you'll have more than $10. Leveraged Investment: Now, let's imagine you have another bank called a leveraged fund. Your bank give you an extra $10 as a loan, so you have a total of $20 to put into this leveraged bank account. This means you can invest twice as much as you originally had! However, there's also a risk with leveraged funds. If the investments don't do well, you might lose more money than you initially had. For example, if your $20 goes down to $15, you still need to repay the $10 you borrowed, so you'll end up with only $5 of your own money left. The summary here is that larger investors use leveraged funds, so unlike Asset Managers who have a very long outlook. The Leveraged Funds element of the COT report is smaller timeframes but still a lot of volume. So, what is their current view? Whilst we have a positive long term outlook. COT would suggest we are not completely ready to shoot off to the moon just yet. I have really tried to over simplify the post here for the sake of education. There's a lot more to each individual section, but knowing these basics will set you off on the right path. Bitcoin becoming institutional is a great opportunity if you know where to look. These moves are far from random as you can see in this post below. Anyways! take it easy and good luck out there! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Editors' picks
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
26
What you need to know about being Bullish!As a long time trader and professional investor, it's been awesome seeing the evolution of Bitcoin. It's a place for influencers to say stupid things like Bitcoin to 100k or 250k without any real merit or logic behind such a price point. Often the analysis consists of a handful of useless lines drawn from nowhere to somewhere of interest on the chart. To understand what Bitcoin and the larger crypto market is doing, doesn't take a lot. Especially as it becomes more and more institutional. I've talked about this for a long time here on @TradingView and showed each step of the way. These moves are not as random as they appear. There's a great book by Richard Ney, actually he has a couple talking about market makers and the effect on the markets. However, one little snippet he talks about how the market or a stock/instrument such as Bitcoin can be seen as a warehouse, think of the scale and number of shelves. Now think of the length of time to fully stack that warehouse. This isn't a quick factor... Now break that idea down further & apply it to BTC. If the market makers are the owners of the warehouse, who do they sell to? Well retail of course. The issue is retail simply do not buy in bulk. Once retail get the urge to buy, the warehouse stock gets depleted 'over time'. In addition the market makers need to stock back up. So for them, they need to buy cheap and sell higher. Trading 101 Over the last couple of years, I have shared a chart showing COT data, this is a US based sample size of in essence what the market makers are doing. The data is slow and clumpy, it's lagging much like all the other indicators - maybe even more so. However, that does not matter as all you are looking for is a general bias. You only need to look at Larry Williams who won the Robbins World Cup Championship of Futures Trading, COT data is a key part of his strategy. I've written several posts here covering the topic in more depth, but here's the current snapshot. Asset Managers: This image clearly shows a long, long term bias. Next you have the Leveraged Funds: This image is almost the inverse, we have a negative delta shown. Now in the past I have had people say to me "ah look, institutions getting REKT. Price going up and their short" What you need to understand is how this works. Let me ask you this "Who is selling to you in the rally" Well the guys who bought it cheaper. So here's the lesson: The factors for Bitcoin currently are pretty simple; you have a long term Bullish bias as seen by the Asset Managers . You have a shorter term Bearish bias of the Leveraged Funds Therefore we can look at some other factors. Let's start with a zoomed out view of the market - let's go to a Monthly timeframe. What do you see? Well, I see an overbought stochastic, I also see price moved up as volume fell down (more visible lower TF's). To translate this, the accumulation for the bigger picture is not quite over. Influencers think we are resting on 30k to rally to 250k next week. Unfortunately for their Demo accounts, the market doesn't think like that. Nor do the market makers! Next you can also dig a little deeper into things like Dark Pools again I have covered this in another educational post. As this is an educational post, let's put all of the pieces together. 1> COT data shows Leveraged Funds still have positions to sell 2> Asset Managers have a Bullish Bias 3> Monthly stochastic overbought 4> Volume doesn't match the move up 5> Dark pools... How much is being soaked up under the radar? In the TradingView show back in May, I covered Wyckoff and Elliott and a little about composite man (market makers). www.tradingview.com When using such tools and techniques, the price becomes obvious. Why up or down and at what key levels. Moves like this are pre programmed into the liquidity algorithm. Things you can spot from miles away. So let's finish on putting it all together - The conclusion would be, we are early on in an accumulation phase, we need to stockpile the warehouse to have momentum to newer highs. IF we go directly here we are capped - think of it like fuel in the tank. I have talked about this on several of my streams here. Coupled with the current view of the overall economy. This doesn't have to be difficult. I hope this helps some of you out. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
10
It's a numbers gameI see this more and more, especially in the crypto space. There are some wild stories out there from turning $8k to a billion through to a Pizza for 10,000 Bitcoin. Here are some home truths. Although most of you won't want to hear this. You see, as a professional trader - there is 1 key factor, almost a scale balancing between too much and just enough. Everyone pushes for more returns, we are only human after all. We have had stories of Wall Street Titans and Vegas big wins, but there is some simple logic to this. You might have entered the market after Covid hit the world and wanted an extra income, might have seen a way to make millions from the money the government sent you? The issue is this is no different that rolling a dice in Vegas but without the fun! You possibly saw some influencer selling you the dream - they fail to tell you, they trade on demo accounts and make their income from affiliate links and social media watch time! When you think of investors like Warren Buffet, you have to understand - he didn't watch an influencer video and say to himself "I want to be like that guy" - investing is often a long term thing and not a get rich quick scheme. Here's a few examples to hit home. This is boring, not worth it - so instead you seek higher returns, that opens up the possibility of falling into scams, listening to the wrong crowd and having dreams. To be honest, it's probably more enjoyable spending a day at the races. With a smaller account, you can grow it a little, add to it on the next pay day and of course compound the investments. As you move up the scale. This is probably where most "semi serious" market goers start. It's often a flurry into the market cash in hand. The assumption often the same; you have done well to amass a lumpy investment, your clearly good at the field you have been in to earn your pot. Why wouldn't you be a good trader? After all, these kid influencers are making millions on their demo accounts. Jump to the next level... Your either a captain of industry, you have had your own business or you have a kind daddy. How you got here is not important, staying here is. When you trade with a medium sized account you start to think a little different. Instead of looking for 900x returns, you start thinking about investments that are a little less risky. This is the scales I mentioned earlier. You are now in the space of a good return might be good enough. Too high of a risk, means you are thinking of safe guarding your cash. Here's where the Professionals play the game differently. Trying to make 1-5% is a lot more sustainable than trying to land a 900x return. You have to remember 90% of traders lose 90% of their accounts in 90 days... This can easily be attributed to things like; Buying signals Following influencers Over trading Trading too small a timeframe Trying to find a silver bullet As a professional - you can seek smaller returns, spend less time in front of the charts and let your money work for you, instead of you doing all the chasing! As the amount of capital rises, so does your desire for risk. You might still have the appetite for returns but not at the cost of risk. As a professional trader, you can afford the luxury of trading a bias and scaling into a trade - you will find fund managers who have what's known as secondary investment capital (in essence to add to winning positions). So although this is not going to be what you want to hear, it's what you need to know. There's always chasing the dream, but why not wake up and make it a reality? Enjoy the weekend all! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Editors' picks
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
23
Every man and his dogI have seen more and more Wyckoff posts recently, well - here's another one! I was trading Wyckoff methodology when it wasn't cool. Unfortunately for the masses, it's not as easy as an 'influencer' will have you believe, from seeing their posts - they clearly lack the understanding and are simply joining the 'HYPE' club for view count. A few years back I went into some depth on Bitcoin's phases as you can see below; Here you would expect the mark up and straight into a Point and Figure forecasted level, which then became 'Re-accumulation' As the price moved up, you could see as clear as day a nice AR move; I'll go into that shortly. But this was the sign of professional involvement. This chart was posted on the 18th of March to highlight the BC (also cover in a second) Why was it so obvious? It was smacking us in the face with the fact it had it's re-accumulation phase earlier - although many said the 60+ thousand level was the accumulation. Point and Figure analysis had the range mapped out and as we neared the zone, the AR come into play. To understand this, I have drafted the help of my good friend Chat GPT to explain this like we are 10 years old. Imagine you have a jar filled with your favorite candies, and you really want to collect as many as possible. Here's how the stages of a Wyckoff accumulation schematic can be related to this candy scenario: Stage 1: Markdown Phase In this stage, you notice that the candies are on sale and their price has been reduced. This makes you excited because you can buy more candies with the same amount of money. So, you start buying some candies, taking advantage of the lower prices. Other people also notice the sale and start buying candies too. This is like the first stage in Wyckoff accumulation, where prices are falling, and smart investors start buying. Stage 2: Absorption Phase In this stage, you and other candy lovers continue buying candies, but you start to notice that even though you're buying a lot, the price doesn't go down as much as it used to. It's like the candies are getting harder to find on sale. This means that there are fewer candies available at the lower price, and more people are buying them. You and others keep buying as many candies as you can, but you start to realize that the sale might be ending soon. Stage 3: Markup Phase Now, the sale is over, and the candies are back to their regular price. However, you notice that the candies you bought during the sale are now worth more than what you paid for them. You feel happy because you made a smart decision to buy them when they were cheap. Other people who missed the sale also want to buy candies now, but the price is higher. You may decide to sell some of your candies at a higher price to those who want them. This is like the third stage in Wyckoff accumulation, where prices start to rise, and the smart investors who bought earlier can sell for a profit. So, to summarize, in the Wyckoff accumulation schematic, we have the markdown phase where prices fall, the absorption phase where prices stabilize, and the markup phase where prices rise. Just like buying candies on sale, smart investors try to buy assets when their prices are low and sell them when prices go up. ===================================================================== So now you got the basic idea of Wyckoff phases; this is still a very hard thing to spot. It helps if you have a bias and of course background as to where the price has been. When I posted the "Rocket call" in March 21, we had seen the Buyers Climax which can be defined like this; A major panic that occurs at the end of a steep ascent in prices. In its classical form it is typified by large range reversal in prices accompanied by large volume. However to simplify this further; contrary to popular 'influencer' belief - Large operator don't go chasing 100x returns, their seeking to make money in all environments and often over a much longer time frame than retail would like. So think of a buyers climax like the bigger players have reached a target that they are comfortable with, the level of returns are sufficient. They sell off as retail are buying every little dip on their 15 minute chart. An AR is an Automatic Reaction to either a buyers or sellers climax (for more, read the post below - Wyckoff basics explained) Once we dropped to the 4 level marked up in March. The move away was ugly, it was low volume from the get go. Meaning a lack of overall interest (at the time) But under the surface, there was more to it. A lot more to it to be honest! I covered the Wyckoff Distribution in this educational post; So, we dropped "exactly as predicted" into a range that was measured only to rise on low, depleting volume. You would then expect a re-accumulation and the measurement for the extension is again mapped out. Re-read the Chat GPT section above. You see, Wyckoff can be useful if you know how to use it properly... People often say things like "it's over 100 years old, it can't work in these markets" Or they try and make patterns out of every move, clearly lacking the understanding. As I explained in August 21 on the way to the current All Time High - the price could be plotted as the image above shows. Volume and COT intel plays a major part here, the sell off was going to be quick to the 40k level - why? Well, it was re-distribution in play. And just like that January 22 through to May was also mapped out... Once we got that break down lower, you could assess the Point and Figure regions. And just like that, we are back into Accumulation. To the MOOOOON!!! ... Not so fast, as this is a much bigger cycle you have to look out for volume, what the bigger players are manipulating and assess the overall situation, being a bigger schematic it is likely to be a slower burner. Refer back to the Chat GPT section above. ======================================================================== Wyckoff, Elliott and Dow Theory still works today as it's not a study of technical charts to be honest, they understood the depth of psychology, retail sentiment based on an individuals own mindset. I have covered the psychology around this in several posts including the Simpsons one! Here's a quick look at the cycle. Now, place these retail sentiment analysts together. You see, things don't have to be complex to work. Zoom out and if you have read this post well enough, you might spot the next clue as to where exactly we are. If you already know me or follow my posts and educational content, you might spot not only where we are, but why. Anyways, I hope this helps at least one person out there! Have a great week! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
10
The other side of the tradeTrading has this stigma attached to it, everyone thinks they can come and make their millions. The reality is, 90% of new traders lose 90% of their funds in 90 days. I've talked for years about the negative side of trading (trust me, I've done this over 20 years) Trading is often perceived as a wonderful, fabulous lifestyle. Cars, yachts, jets and women! Probably fueled by films like the Wolf of Wall Street. But not many people like admitting to the other side of the traders lifestyle. Of course, it's nowhere near as glamorous - it sure as hell won't get social media likes or follows. But it's there and it's real! There are a couple of main points that I want to touch on, especially for you newer traders coming to find your fortunes. 1) Trading can be boring! Yes, boring as shait. If you are used to having a 9-5, you do not realise the effects (good and bad) on having human interaction throughout the day. You might have a partner you live with, the family. But what about when they go to work or school? You are left with your own thoughts. Yes, this can be dangerous!!! The issues can include lack of motivation, uncertainty in what to do, overthinking. On your bad days, you have nobody to comfort you and on your good days, you have nobody to share the excitement with! Joining communities can be a good fix here, providing you find a good one. This doesn't have to effect your trading, your strategy or anything else - but interaction could save you from the loneliness. The solitary nature of trading can sometimes lead to feelings of isolation and loneliness. Without the support and camaraderie of others in a similar field, it can be challenging to share experiences, discuss strategies, or seek advice. Additionally, the pressure and stress of making high-stakes financial decisions can further contribute to a sense of isolation. 2) STRESS - Stress is a huge factor for a trader. Stress could also stem from the loneliness, stress when dealing with finance is an area where a lot of people suffer, traders and non traders alike. The issue is for traders, stress is often self inflicted. Most new traders come to the market with a view of it's easy, fast paced, exciting and therefore have the perception of making it big. If it was this easy, people wouldn't spend 7 years becoming doctors or lawyers. Instead they would follow the money! Come on, who wouldn't - Yachts n all. It's this popular belief that usually drives traders into the stressful state which becomes the norm until they give up! To counter the loneliness and try to make it big, traders (probably you) I know I did! look at indicators, try to take on as much info as possible! Which takes you down this path. Indicators. there must be a holy grail, a silver bullet? 100% winning strategy? People waste so much time on retail indicators thinking they will be the one to find the edge. You would be better off having a trip to Vegas and playing the first slot machine you spot! The next issue is - too much data or the attempt to obtain too much of it! I remember when my setup matched this below (if not more screens) This is like trying to read 9 books at the same time whilst writing essays in 6 different languages. All of these factors will 100% add to your stress. You might have anxiety when executing a trade, or feel the burden of stress whilst in a trade. Scared to see the numbers go red and too eager when they go green?! Yup been there, done that. So has every trader out there. Stop feeling like this. Creation of a strategy... All you need to help combat these types of stresses, is find an edge. The edge could be very simple - from reading books, stepping away from the charts, viewing higher time frames, moving away from social media influencers. All the way through to mastering one instrument. When you see indicators like the image above, what happens if two are in one direction and the rest in another? You start to argue with yourself, you miss good trades and you end up taking bad ones. This leads to stress and then you realise, yup your lonely! What a cycle to be trapped in! Now how about you flip the thinking here? Less charts to stare at, less indicators to confuse, more time to read, exercise or simply go play golf. Your edge does not need to be technical, fancy or shown on 48 screens. I talked about this in the Tradingview live show the other evening. Here's the link: www.tradingview.com Sometimes less is more and this can combat the stress and golf is always a winner for loneliness. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Editors' picks
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
26
Let's all jump inWhen you first start trading, everything seems like a good idea! You want to take every trade, use every indicator, watch every video and stream! Be like every influencer! You get this feeling that you found something new, that you are the chosen one. Unfortunately, it's for this same reason - 90% of new retail traders lose 90% of their money in the first 90 days... Here are some key pointers to keep you safe! 1) Risk Management; learning to manage risk is key. If you want to gamble away your savings, Vegas is a lot more fun than the markets. Trust me, I speak from experience in both! 2) Create a plan that suits the type of lifestyle you have, if your working full time then scalping every couple of minutes is not doing you any favours. Take the long road. If you have time but don't want to stare at screens all day, then don't go scalping either. Not saying, don't do scalping or it's no good. Just emphasising, to pick your own style. 3) Don't follow influencers! I cover this topic a lot, people often ask me about Plan B or some other random guy. The issue is, these guys don't trade, they shill affiliate links and film 4 Youtube videos a day! They make their money by having followers and views. Just look at this below; This was the message from the top! Where would you be now? Leveraged long positions? This aspect has become, possibly one of the biggest factors for how people lose in the crypto space. You get sold a dream by following demo traders! Take our friend Carl, I called him out after seeing his demo trading on a video. The guy is practically calling every top a pump and go long from here... 4) Follow the big players; not the whales, the institutions. When you know where their bias is, you have a lot more probability getting the direction correct. 5) Search for key levels; regardless of a technique - this could be supply and demand levels, Fib pullbacks, Wyckoff Schematics or Elliott Waves. Don't trust only one, and please, please, please! Don't get lazy and just follow something you seen in a video. Do your own due diligence. For example; I see 2 Elliott Wave scenarios here for Bitcoin. This is the first option. The second has a 4 where the 2 is of a move one degree lower. I've covered this in my streams. It's knowing the logic behind the market sentiment that will help you figure out the general direction, this is why knowing the bigger players in the space is useful. As you can see from my post here - each call is on @tradingview 6) Do your own research to create your own plan, that should fit around your lifestyle or at least your current circumstance. 7) Repeat step 1 through 6. These moves are choreographed, like you wouldn't believe. Don't believe me? On the way up to the 65k all time high at the time; you could see the re-accumulation take place. As we neared the extension levels, you could see the distribution sequence start. I covered this with a lesson on Wyckoff at the time. These levels were already mapped out, months in advance of the actual move. From there and up to the current all time high. Why would it move like that? why would it stop where it did? These are the questions you need to ask, if you want to take trading seriously. You won't qualify as a doctor or a lawyer after watching a handful of videos. You won't make it as a trader either if that's your expectation. Finally, Here's some logic for you - are we likely to reach $100k Bitcoin on this move up? Monthly stochastic level would say otherwise... Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
5
Tradingview Volume toolsI've been using Tradingview for just over 8 years now. When I initially started using it I was transitioning from using Footprint tools. I would use techniques that in essence allowed you to see inside a candle. Coupled with techniques such as "DOM" Depth of Market and Cumulative Delta. After a while you get to see some of this stuff without the need of indicators. Tradingview have steadily added various tools to the platform and with a little help from being able to code your own tools it's made it an interesting space to play. So here's a quick overview on the abilities, encase you have yet to explore. This is not a lesson on volume as such, just educating you as to what the possibilities can be. Most would have seen or at least know about the volume on the X axis. This simply gives an idea of the happening of that particular candle, of course things can alter or yield different results based on settings and time frames. we've taken the time to incorporate this simple volume in one of our own indicators. Which is coupled with a Stochastic and a few other bits. It can also be used standalone for spotting divergence for example. You can see how the volume up and price up yet in the third price move up, volume has lowered. There are also various styles of showing this volume data - one such tool is Weiss waves. These are great in conjunction with techniques such as Elliott Waves and Wyckoff. I've shown this over the last two years here on TradingView and both of these techniques have been very useful on Bitcoin during this time. I mentioned CVD the cumulative Volume Delta, here you can see this under the Weiss Wave indicator. Like I said, have a play around with these on your own charts. You will spot some interesting things once you get to know them. Try various instruments as well as timeframes. More recently I posted a video on using Chat GPT to build a pinescript indicator. Here's the link to that post. Well, I've taken that a few steps further. What started as an idea in terms of using Footprint, X axis volume and then what's called periodic volume profile. I personally like to turn the bars/candles off when I got this on. Here's another view - this is the session volume profile and periodic volume combined without the candles being visible. This new indicator extracts various pieces of data and paints key levels based on my old trading style. As you can see today, this is showing like a magnet where the key levels in Bitcoin are likely to be. There's a bit more to it than that but in essence, its what I am showing here. To finish with you have two other tools here on Tradingview - one which is fixed range volume, just as it says on the tin. You can see volume inside a range you determine. I have used a low and a high here to find the PoC - Point of Control. Then finally, you have visible range; this I tend to use less personally, but I know many people like it. This allows you to view the volume profile based on what you have visible on the chart. As you can imagine, as you zoom in n out, it can change. Like I said, this is not a lesson on each tool - it's an intro to, for you to spend the time to play around with these tools. Feel free to ask questions below. Enjoy the rest of the week! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
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COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
18