What Is Bitcoin Halving? Here's All You Need to KnowWhat Is Bitcoin Halving? Here's All You Need to Know.
Halving is the event of slashing Bitcoin's mining rewards every 210,000 blocks, or roughly every four years. Read all about it here.
Table of Contents
Overview
What Is Bitcoin Halving?
When Is the Next Bitcoin Halving?
Deep Dive into Blockchain
How Are Miners Rewarded?
Why Halving Matters?
The Big Picture
What About Bitcoin’s Price?
Halving and the Way Forward
Overview
Bitcoin’s halving is a milestone event for the crypto space. Essentially, halving pushes back the moment we see all 21 million BTC tokens pulled out of their cryptographic hash puzzles.
Satoshi Nakamoto, the individual or group who created Bitcoin , programmed it to a fixed amount of 21 million coins. In other words, the total amount of Bitcoin can never exceed 21 million. Presently, miners have picked up just over 19 million through a process called Bitcoin mining.
This amount is over 90% of the total supply with mining having started with the creation of Bitcoin 15 years ago. That leaves just about 2 million tokens to be unearthed before the final Bitcoin enters our dimension. How long should we wait until this mammoth of a milestone happens? More than a century, or around the year 2140 , according to forecasting wizards.
The logic behind this peculiar mechanism lies in the so-called halving and this guide will help you understand all about it.
What Is Bitcoin Halving?
Halving, in its simplest form, is the process of gradually reducing the rewards of Bitcoin mining. As we mentioned, Satoshi Nakamoto originally hard-coded Bitcoin to a fixed supply of 21 million. All of them will come to life at an increasingly slower rate. More precisely, the pace at which Bitcoin is created is “halved” every 210,000 blocks.
The current block reward is 6.25 Bitcoin as the last halving occurred on May 11th, 2020.
When's the Next Bitcoin Halving?
In April 2024, miners will add the next batch of 210,000 blocks. And that only means one thing - they will have their revenue immediately slashed in half to 3.125 Bitcoin.
All halvings are evenly spread out approximately every four years, consistent with Bitcoin’s hard-coded design. This way, supply will keep increasing, just at a slower clip. The reason is simple - the Bitcoin halving rewards will continue to reduce.
Deep Dive into Blockchain
In order for new Bitcoin to come into circulation, miners need to create blocks in a chain, hence the term ‘blockchain’.
Network operators—the hardworking miners—uncover blocks through computer-powered mining operations. These crypto diggers compute hashes as quickly as possible. What they do is search for the successful fixed-length output that they add to the block.
The more hashes per second (hashrate), the more chances for hacking out new blocks and adding them to the blockchain.
How Are Miners Rewarded?
Generally, miners have two ways to reward themselves for the effort. The first one is to earn revenue from transaction fees of users who send and receive Bitcoin. That’s when they act as decentralized network operators and validate transactions without a central authority.
At their height during the crypto boom in April 2021, the Bitcoin network fees reached as much as $60 per transaction and took hours to complete. After all, the network can only handle 4-7 transactions per second. To compare, payment giant Visa can validate 24,000 transactions per second.
Average transaction fee of Bitcoin, USD
Timeframe: April, 2021
Source: bitinfocharts.com
The other way to reward Bitcoin miners is to let them pocket the newly-minted Bitcoin contained in the block. Halving is basically a reward system for miners.
But more broadly, halving is part of the proof-of-work model associated with high levels of energy consumption. Millions of mining rigs soak up that energy and crank out new Bitcoin.
Why Halving Matters?
Halving the block reward for mining Bitcoin is a way to protect its integrity. This immutable feature of the OG crypto makes it stand out as a unique asset class. In this light, it is also an alternative to inflation-prone national currencies, also known as fiat money.
With that in mind, in a world that craves disruptive innovation, a technology that’s rewiring the global financial system has progressively moved into the limelight. The growing role of Bitcoin as a new investment vehicle is apparent, factoring in the elevated investor appetite .
Bitcoin transacts tens of billions of dollars of daily volumes, with a peak of more than $126 billion on May 19, 2021. The figure is sufficient to prove it has piqued the interest of enough crowds to form a market around it.
Before we revisit Bitcoin as an investable asset, let’s take a breather and trace the original crypto back to its origins where halving was introduced.
The Big Picture
Just over 15 years ago, the mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto mined the initial “genesis” block . For the effort, the clandestine developer(s) earned a hefty reward of 50 Bitcoin. And also bothered to leave a message hooked to the chunk of transactions. The message read: " The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks. "
Since then, the Bitcoin network has witnessed three halving events:
On November 28, 2012, Bitcoin’s block reward was cut from 50 BTC to 25 BTC.
On July 9, 2016, Bitcoin’s block reward was slashed from 25 per block to 12.5 BTC.
The last one occurred on May 11, 2020, when the reward was axed to 6.25 BTC.
The next Bitcoin halving event is on deck for April 19, 2024. Rewards will fall to 3.125 BTC.
The Bitcoin halving dates may vary and we're yet to get a confirmation over the next one. Estimations indicate that every 10 minutes or so all network operators add a new block to the Bitcoin blockchain. With the current reward of 6.25 Bitcoin per block, miners dig out around 900 new Bitcoin a day.
At today’s prices , this is equal to around $50 million worth of Bitcoin extracted daily. This is where the halving becomes interesting not just to the geeks among us.
Halving events play a key part in shaping up supply and demand and weigh on the price of Bitcoin. Speaking of price movement, how does the rate at which new Bitcoin is churned out affect valuations?
What About Bitcoin's Price?
Bitcoin, as the world’s first cryptocurrency in a sea of many, is the quintessence of scarcity premium. Investment professionals are quick to say that Bitcoin carries a unique glamor as the only large tradeable asset with a predictable emission leading to a hard cap.
In that light, analysts consider Bitcoin to be the newest entrant in the store-of-value category. An investment product that holds its purchasing power over time. Ideally coming with consistent price increases.
This is possible thanks to halving - the brilliant mechanism hard-wired into the Bitcoin protocol. The minds behind the original digital currency conceived it as deflationary. A concept alien to the present financial system, flooded with central-bank cash and government stimulus.
The reason is that, contrary to fiat currencies that inflate over time, Bitcoin should not be debased by inflation. Satoshi Nakamoto explained this inflation-rate flaw in an online forum around the time of Bitcoin’s inception.
"The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that’s required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust.”
Halving and the Way Forward
If there’s a need to draw broad conclusions, here are some of the more salient points to make a compelling argument.
Bitcoin’s purchasing power is likely to avoid debasement thanks to the halving mechanism. With less than 10% of Bitcoin still to come to the surface, it will take more than 100 years for the last unmined Bitcoin to pop out.
Once all the 21 million Bitcoin spring to life, miners will no longer stake their livelihood on uncovering new tokens. Instead, they will earn revenue from network fees for their work on validating transactions. But that’s only if the network sticks to the plan.
FAQ
❔ "What is the purpose of halving?"
► Halving maintains a decreasing pace of block rewards, which emphasizes on the idea of scarcity in Bitcoin.
❔ "When is the next Bitcoin halving?"
► The next Bitcoin halving event is scheduled to occur on April 19, 2024. This date is approximate, and the actual date may be different, depending on the time it takes to complete one full batch of 210,000 blocks.
❔ "Is halving related to price increase?"
► Technically, when the supply of new Bitcoin is cut in half, and demand remains the same, prices may go up. But the price discovery of Bitcoin does not obey archetype models of economics.
❔ "When will the last Bitcoin be mined?"
► Estimates point that the last available Bitcoin will be mined in the year 2140.
Mining
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Superprofits in BTC mining are a thing of the past."Technical analysis" of the cost of mining BTC.
We have already seen when in the bear market in the range from August 2018 to November 2020, the price of BTC pressed against the cost of production (best miner @ 0.1kWh).
I expect that in the future the price, due to the increasing competition of miners, will not differ much from the cost price (after the 4th halving).
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What To Expect After BTC Block Halving in 2020Hello my dear friends!
Today I am here to provide you with some insights regarding the Bitcoins block halving in May 2020 and how it will affect the overall Bitcoins performance on the market. I believe everybody should be aware of this so it is my pleasure to share this with you. The information below is constructed from various research articles and personal knowledge based from experience. Hope you enjoy the read, I promise not to waste your time!
On May 20th 2020, the third Bitcoin halving will occur. 50% less Bitcoins will be generated every 10 minutes and this could change the value of Bitcoin forever. The halving is an anti-inflationary function that “Satoshi Nakamoto” (creator/s of Bitcoin) put in place to make sure the value of bitcoin was never pushed down by the supply increasing too fast. This function is described in the white-paper. Block halving tends to have long-term positive effects on the price of Bitcoin (just like in previous halving’s). This is mainly due to supply and demand. If fewer bitcoins are being generated, the newly increased scarcity automatically makes them more valuable, but this doesn’t happen right away unfortunately.
After the first halving, bitcoin went from around $11 to around $1,100 and back down to $220. Second time, Bitcoin went from around $230 to around $20,000 and back down to around $4,000. So for the next halving, majority of people are expecting history to repeat itself, only this time, sending bitcoin to perhaps a six-digit price. The biggest changes in the crypto ecosystem this time, will be the higher public awareness around bitcoin and the interest of institutional investors (hedge funds, banks, pensions, etc.). Increased public awareness could also lead to a wave of FOMO buying, which could push the Bitcoins price higher. When more financial institutions begin taking big positions, it could affect bitcoin in ways investors have never seen before.
What does this mean for the Bitcoin Mining Industry:
The acceptance of cryptocurrency by retails, investments by large semiconductor companies in mining-specific hardware, and the increasing demand for equipment manufactured in China are the emerging trends expected to gain traction by 2022. These trends will further add to the growth of the cryptocurrency mining hardware market size during the forecast period. The global cryptocurrency mining hardware market is expected to grow over USD 2.2 billion between 2018-2022. In fact, over 50% of the market’s growth will come from Asia-Pacific as the region is witnessing steady growth due to the extensive adoption of blockchain technology and cryptocurrency.
When the block reward halves, the price per Bitcoin compensates along with it. We have seen this process occur after every halving. Mining is a self balancing machine seeking to always be in equilibrium. The increasing number of product launches are expected to trigger the market growth during the forecast period. Vendors are making significant investments in research and development for developing innovative technologies and new products. It is safe to assume that after the block halving, there will be a high chance of large influx of new miners on the network, ultimately pushing the Bitcoins price higher.
Bitcoin is still at it's very early stages of growth and unfortunately we have to be patient with seeing it reach its new higher highs. Although now may seem like the perfect opportunity to acquire bitcoin for long term holding, in my personal opinion we can still expect multiple draw downs of the price, perhaps even reaching down to the $6,000 support areas. Usually at the end of the year we see huge volatility in the overall cryptocurrency market, ultimately pushing the Bitcoins price to either direction, creating potential investment opportunities.
Hope you enjoyed the read!
Note: I am not a financial advisor and am not responsible for you placing any trades on the digital asset.
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Antminer S9 ROI: Bitmain vs Retail over 1, 1.5 & 2 yrsThis is in addition to my previous chart on miner roi for different Antminer models. The S9 is the only model making a profit now and is the only sha256 miner currently used by Bitmain according to news articles. My previous chart only looked at ROI for retail miners. Here I show estimates for Bitmain (area plots) itself who pay less for their mining equipment than their customers. I also compare with retail miners (lines). The three lines/areas represent three different amortization periods for mining equipment: over 1 year (green), 1.5 years (blue) or 2 years (purple). The longer the period over which you spread your costs the less dependent you are on BTC price so long as your miner does not become obsolete before the write off period ends. previously I only considered a 1 year write off period.
Lastly after some research I determine the average lifespan of a miner is just 1 to 2 years (www.cell.com(18)30177-6).
Area plot: Bitmain
Line: retail
Elec: 0.06 USD/kWh
Model: Antminer S9
Hrate: 13.5 TH/s
Unit cost: USD 500 (Bitmain), USD 900 (retail)
Operating time: 24 hrs/day, 365 days/year
see: medium.com
see: www.cell.com(18)30177-6
BITMAIN: Antminer S-series Return on Investment (Bitcoin)Chart shows the return on investment of Antminer S-series miners:
S1 (yellow): approx released July 2013, power consumption 2 kW/TH/s
S3 (purple): approx released June 2014, power consumption 0.71 kW/TH/s
S5 (orange): approx released December 2014, power consumption 0.51 kW/TH/s
S7 (green): approx released Aug 2015, power consumption 25 kW/TH/s
S9 (blue): approx released July 2016, power consumption 0.1 kW/TH/s
Red curve is network hash rate (proportional to difficulty).
Chart of mining efficiency (TH/s/kW): drive.google.com (blue is actual trend, red is projected continuation of pre-S9 trend)
Bitmain has not publicly released any significant efficiency upgrades since July 2016. Innovation at the mining sector's biggest player seems to have stalled. If the exponential trend had continued we should have reached >40 TH/s/kW by Jan 2018, instead we are at 2016 levels. This is either because Bitmain cannot make more efficient ASICS or because they are keeping secret any innovations they have made.
Looking at the return on investment (ROI) chart. The white horizontal line is the breakeven line. Anything above is profit. The vertical lines are release dates of the various S-model miners. We see that a new miner is released to the public just when the previous model becomes obsolete. Normally there is a lead time before delivery of several months. Bitmain have not made any announcements regarding an S11.
Despite all of this the hash rate is increasing unabated. Have Bitmain been secretly mining with new hardware or have they simply been bringing more S9s online? If they have an S11 why aren't they releasing it?
Further reading
Bitmain now mines 42 % of the entire network bitcoinist.com
June 8 interview with the Bitmain CEO Jihan Wu fortune.com
This is where I explain how to calculate the conversion factor medium.com
Bitcoin S-curve with Mining History + Qualitative Hasing RateSome assumptions first:
Bitcoin follows an S-curve typical of many growing technologies (and sometimes even stocks/indices): Adoption chart
The exact gradients / inflexion points of the S-curve shown here is illustrative, as we cannot know its future development.
The hashing rate shown here (brown line) is completely illustrative and represents only the changing trend (which has been increasing or constant since 2010).
S-curves (which appear as exponential curves in linear charts) indicate a viral exchange of information which is typical of technology adoption and hype (this is where stocks/indices come in etc)
In the case of Bitcoin, although the rate of production is supposed to be constant (hence difficulty adjustment) and therefore cannot affect the price, there is a clear relationship between price development and the development of network hashing rate. The hashing rate develops with the evolution of the mining sector from 2010 hobbyist to 2018 industrialist.
The next big boom in Bitcoin will take place in conjunction with the next revolution in mining. There are some 4 million Bitcoins still left to mine. The next halving (block reward reduction to 6.25 BTC/block) is probable in summer 2020. But the halving is not necessary in order to start a new growth phase . In fact the previous two halvings occurred half-way through the growth cycle.
Some reading:
Controlled Supply
Evolution of Bitcoin Hardware
Bitcoin hashing rate
Bitcoin mining price 2015
Bloomberg mining price 2018