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Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 13 - AUDNZD - (3rd June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions. A couple of things to note: - I cannot see news events. - I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range. - I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks In this session I will be analyzing AUDNZD, starting from the 12-Month chart. - R2F
Education
by Road_2_Funded
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsHigh-Beta – AUD, CAD and NZD benefited from rising commodity prices on Tuesday, as markets set aside concerns about the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant. The notable outperformer in the commodities complex was oil prices, with WTI approaching $68 per barrel, up almost $2.50/+3% on the day. Indeed, following today’s strong performance in WTI, TD Securities noted that: “With the impact on demand fueling chatter that OPEC+’s next monthly output hike could be delayed, and China’s “Zero-Covid” strategy appearing to have quickly contained the outbreak, crude oil could once again have a solid footing to challenge the $70s.”
OANDA:WTICOUSDEducation
by thunderpips
5
How to Catch a Trend? Deep Explanation on a Real SituationGood Morning traders! Interesting idea today regarding the NZD/JPY pair. This post is aimed to all the trend followers, since it implies a breakout of an interesting ceiling. This pair has been consolidating in the current retracement for more than two months, and we can already begin to see intentions of a breakout in the short term. Why do we say this? 🔸Since March 25, the minor trend is clearly bullish. This determines that there is an interesting demand, and it is possible that we will see a brekaout soon. The target of the potential movement is in the next Resistance zone, at 84,000. We determined this based on the analysis of the Weekly chart: 🔸Well, the above is just an analysis. The question is, how are we going to trade this movement? 🔸In the 4H chart we will plan the setup. It involves a corrective move in a throwback towards the broken zone, and then the corresponding momentum. It has a GREAT potential if it happens, since it can be a trade with a return greater than 4 or 5 times the risk assumed. Why are we trading this way? Because we are momentum traders and we look for trades that goes in the direction on the main trend. And how to catch a trend? This is a commonly asked question. As a breakout traders, we always look for clear impulses followed by corrective moves. After that, we will look for the new impulse in the direction of the main trend, using that corrective move to place our entry and stop loss level. Here are 5 examples of the last bullish trend: The first thing we will do is to position on the daily chart to show you all the corrections we saw on the chart. After that, we will decrease to the corresponding timeframe to be able to see the structure comfortably and detail how we would have traded it. We will use a very simple risk scheme, fixed 2: 1 R / R ratio in order to simplify the explanation. The entry point is at the breakout of the structure, and the stop loss below it.
Education
by ThinkingAntsOk
1
How I work in Forex: Nzd-Usd analysisIn this article, I show you my way of working in Forex, starting with the choice of the currency pair, passing through all aspects of the operation (position size, maximum loss, etc.), until the analysis of the currency pair and the strategy to be adopted (entry-level, stop-loss and target). Looking at the table of currency pairs I follow, the one that caught my eye was Usd-Nzd. The price is at a level that is not sustainable in the long run for the New Zealand economy. In the last few years, the area 0.72300/0.72800 has been a very important level for Nzd-Usd and above that, the currency pair would be in an area of excess price (actually, already above 0.70000 Nzd-Usd is in an area of excess price). The operation that I am going to open has an optical of the medium-long period, if you are not in a position to hold open the position also for several months, do not replicate it. Let us proceed. The first thing I decide in each of my operations is how much I am willing to lose. My maximum loss is not equal for all the operations, with some more "particular" I have a smaller propensity to the risk. An example is precisely this operation. Although Nzd-Usd belongs to the currency pairs so-called "Majors," the New Zealand dollar is very similar to an "Exotic" currency, therefore with less volume and consequently more volatile and easily speculate. And besides, I already have other long positions on USD. For these reasons, I have decided that my maximum loss on the whole operation is $ 500, and based on the stop-loss, I will decide the position size to open. I now analyse Nzd-Usd trying to understand how it might move in the coming weeks and establish the type of trade and the entry-level. Above, you can see the daily chart with the Nzd-Usd sensitive levels highlighted. New Zealand had less impact from the covid-19 pandemic and this allowed its economy to be less affected. This led to a strong rise in its currency to the 0.75000 area against the US dollar. New Zealand, however, has a strongly export-based economy and a currency so strong, as mentioned earlier, is not sustainable in the long run. The New Zealand dollar also strengthened as many expected the central bank to intervene with a rate hike, "the Committee agreed that the risks to the economic outlook remain balanced, conditional on ongoing stimulatory fiscal and monetary policies. The Committee agreed that, in line with its least regrets framework, it would not remove monetary stimulus until it had confidence that it is sustainably achieving the consumer price inflation and employment objectives. Given that uncertainty remains elevated, gaining this confidence is expected to take considerable time and patience." However, this is currently unlikely, at least in the short term. Also because in recent months the New Zealand economy has slowed down, "Economic activity in New Zealand slowed over the summer months following the earlier rebound in domestic activity. December quarter GDP was weaker than expected and more recent indicators suggest that momentum has reduced. Some members noted that supply chain disruptions could potentially constrain domestic activity in the near term. In addition, business credit growth and investment remain subdued." As for the US, the focus in recent weeks has been on inflation following the entry into force of Biden's economic stimulus plan, "with inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal (2%), the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 per cent for some time so that inflation averages 2 per cent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well-anchored at 2 per cent." In the March "Summary of Economic Projections," the PCE inflation forecast for 2021 rose to 2.4% from 1.8% in December, and the Core PCE inflation forecast rose to 2.1% from 1.8% in December. Inflation is forecast at 2.0% in 2022 and 2.1% in 2022 for both. In the same document, you can see (you can find it on the Federal Reserve's website) that in March compared to December the GDP forecast was raised (to 6.5% in 2021 from 4.2% in December) and the unemployment rate lowered (to 4.5% in 2021 from 5.0% in December). Macroeconomic analysis shows what has already emerged above with New Zealand's data deteriorating in recent months while US data is improving almost steadily. If the vaccination continues apace, the US economy will recover quickly, as the UK economy is doing in Europe. Once the analysis is complete, how do I intend to proceed? I do not want to open the operation at once. The moment is particular and I would not be surprised to see Nzd-Usd go up even 300 pips. So, I decided to open a spy order at 0.72400 to see how the currency pair will react to that level. I will place the primary order, which is larger in size as it is closer to the stop-loss, at 0.73700. For both orders, spy order and primary order, I destine the same maximum loss, which I had decided to be $ 500, so my maximum loss for the two types of orders is $ 250 each. Now with the Value-at-Risk, I calculate the stop-loss and with the stop-loss, I calculate the size of the two orders. To be precise, I use CVaR to calculate the stop-loss (it is all explained in my book on fundamental analysis in forex) and the calculation gives me a stop-loss at 0.75200. I now calculate the two position sizes. Ultimately, I will open a short position of $ 9,000 at 0.72400 (spy order) and a short position of $ 17,000 at 0.73700 (primary order), with a stop-loss at 0.75200. As for the target, I always like to see how the currency pair moves to assess where to take profit. This, somewhat summarised, is how I work in Forex, how I analyse a currency pair and how I organise the whole operation.
Education
by TradingwDavid
2
📚 The Perfect Impulse - Correction - Impulse 📚NZDUSD has recently given us the perfect impulse, correct, impulse move, which is probably our favourite pattern to trade. The market moves in waves. There's an impulse wave, followed by a brief period of consolidation/correction where buyers and sellers accumulate their orders. This is often followed by another impulse wave in the same initial direction as the first impulse. The great thing about these patterns is that we can have a clear stop placement, which is above the correction. If you have a closer look at this chart, you will be able to notice various impulse waves followed by corrections. Do your best to find them in your trading!
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Education
by WicktatorFX
19
📚 The Perfect Impulse - Correction - Impulse 📚NZDUSD has recently given us the perfect impulse, correct, impulse move, which is probably our favourite pattern to trade. The market moves in waves. There's an impulse wave, followed by a brief period of consolidation/correction where buyers and sellers accumulate their orders. This is often followed by another impulse wave in the same initial direction as the first impulse. The great thing about these patterns is that we can have a clear stop placement, which is above the correction. If you have a closer look at this chart, you will be able to notice various impulse waves followed by corrections. Do your best to find them in your trading!
Education
by WicktatorFX
7
📚💰Descending Triangle in GBPNZD "Learn More Earn More" With US📚 LEARN MORE 💰 EARN MORE With ForecastCity Descending Triangle Definition: An Descending Triangle is a type of triangle chart pattern that occurs when there is a support level and a slope of lower high . It is defined by two lines: .A horizontal support line running through valleys. .A Downtrend line drawn through the peaks. The lower highs indicate more sellers are gradually entering the market and selling pressure increases as price consolidates moving further towards the apex. An Descending Triangle is classified as a continuation chart pattern . If price can break through the support level, that level will now act as a resistance level. Breakouts can also happen in both directions. Statistically, downward breakouts are more likely to occur, but upward ones seem to be more reliable. In most cases, the sellers will win this battle and the price will break out past the support. But Sometimes the support level is too strong, and there is simply not enough selling power to push it through. Therefore you should be ready for movement in EITHER direction . ENTRY: We would set an entry order bellow the support line and above the slope of the lower highs. TARGET: Target is approximately the same distance as the height of the triangle formation. ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated! ❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex trader ? Now, It's your turn ! Be sure to leave a comment let us know how do you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Education
by ForecastCity
7
Recent AUD/NZD Long Trade Using ResistanceI caught a nice trade here yesterday on AUD/NZD. Price had recently broken through resistance, and we saw a strong bullish break out move. As the bullish momentum slowed down, we saw bears come back into power and drove the price back down to resistance. At this pint, we need to look for 2 actions: - Either price will break through the resistance level and the bearish move will continue, most likely down to previous support levels in which you could enter a short trade when the break through is confirmed. OR - We will see a rejection at the trend line where the price is struggling to break through the resistance, and bulls come back into the equation to drive the price upward. This is when you can enter a long trade. After identifying the rejection at the trend line, also in line with the MACD and RVI, I entered a long trade and banked a nice profit before bears came back into power and drove the price down. Support and resistance levels can be used to identify some lovely trade setups, as we have seen with AUD/NZD.
Education
by francesgurton