Silver (XAGUSD) how to construct a trade:Medium bullish take:
OANDA:XAGUSD is trading around the $30 price level for the first time in years. Is there a trade here? Could we see $40 by EOY? Let’s draw some charts:
We're trading in a Bullflag at the $30 level
Triple top, we're not quite ready to hold above the level
Find nearby price targets
Establish long term support lines
Use momentum indicators and price action to draw a reasonable path which engages the price structures you've established.
So according to our charts, we should expect a bounce above $27 Be mindful, there are exogenous events that push the price around. Shifts in the macro landscape will impact the path price takes.
For details, I've included a fun GIF, animating the construction of this chart. Check out my twitter for more!
NOTE: Original idea posted 7/23
Preciousmetals
💰 Exploring the Potential of Investing in Precious Metals.Throughout the ages, the allure of rare and captivating metals like gold, silver, platinum, and palladium has remained unwavering. Their scarcity, exquisite aesthetics, and enduring nature have made them objects of desire. While these metals are commonly associated with ornamental jewelry, their utility extends far beyond adornment, finding applications in various industrial and technological realms. Moreover, precious metals have long been regarded as a safeguard against inflation and a sanctuary for investors amidst economic upheaval. Consequently, the trading of these invaluable commodities has evolved into a pivotal component of the global financial landscape, witnessing the exchange of billions of dollars each passing day. In this exposition, we embark upon an exploration of the fundamentals of precious metals trading: the mechanisms at play, the influential factors shaping prices, and the diverse avenues through which investors can partake in this exhilarating and ever-evolving marketplace.
The vast realm of metals is neatly divided into two distinct groups: ferrous and nonferrous. The former encompasses iron, manganese, and chromium, although experts occasionally question the inclusion of the latter metal. This classification extends to alloys containing elements from these primary ferrous metals.
Understanding Precious Metals
From an official statistical perspective, ferrous metals command an overwhelming share, reaching up to 90%. One would naturally assume that such metals enjoy significant demand on stock exchanges. However, in reality, a majority of transactions occur outside the realm of these exchanges, transpiring directly between buyers and sellers. Consequently, the ferrous metals market and its liquidity do not boast the most favorable conditions.
Within this category, certain metals hold a prominent position in exchange trading, namely: gold, silver, platinum, palladium, copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel. Amongst these, gold and silver reign as the favored choices among traders and investors.
To comprehend the market of precious metals in its entirety, it is imperative to examine it through two essential lenses: the functional aspect and the institutional perspective. Ultimately, the market represents a harmonious amalgamation of diverse spheres, encompassing not only extraction, production, and processing but also the final sale to consumers.
The price of precious metals is subject to the influence of various factors, encompassing:
Supply and demand dynamics: The fundamental principles of supply and demand exert a significant impact on precious metal prices. Limited supply coupled with high demand typically drives prices upward.
Economic indicators: Economic data, including inflation rates, interest rates, and GDP growth, can shape the price trajectory of precious metals. For instance, during periods of elevated inflation, investors often seek refuge in precious metals as a store of value, leading to increased demand and subsequent price appreciation.
Geopolitical events: Geopolitical occurrences like wars, trade conflicts, and political instability have the potential to sway precious metal prices. When geopolitical tensions escalate, investors frequently turn to precious metals as a safe haven, fueling demand and subsequently driving prices higher.
Currency fluctuations: Since the price of precious metals is commonly denominated in US dollars, fluctuations in currency value can impact metal prices. For instance, if the US dollar strengthens, precious metal prices may experience a decline as they become relatively more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Investor sentiment: The sentiment and outlook of investors can play a vital role in shaping precious metal prices. Bullish sentiment may lead to increased buying activity, resulting in price surges. Conversely, bearish sentiment may prompt investors to sell their holdings, leading to price declines.
To summarize, the price of precious metals is influenced by a multifaceted interplay of factors, ranging from the core dynamics of supply and demand to geopolitical events and currency fluctuations.
Investing in precious metals offers several avenues for investors to participate in the market. Here are three of the most popular approaches:
Stocks: Investors can purchase shares in mining companies engaged in the extraction of precious metals like gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. The stock prices of these companies often correlate closely with the underlying metal's price, as their profitability is tied to production costs and market demand.
Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs): Precious metal ETFs enable investors to buy shares in a fund that holds physical precious metals, such as gold or silver. These funds aim to track the price movements of the respective metal, providing a convenient means of exposure to the market without the need for physical storage and transportation of the metals.
Contracts for Difference (CFDs): CFDs are financial instruments that allow investors to speculate on the price fluctuations of precious metals without owning the physical metal itself. By entering into a contract with a broker, investors can buy or sell the metal at a predetermined price on a future date. CFDs are a more speculative approach, involving leverage and potentially significant losses if the metal's price moves unfavorably.
The potential earnings from trading precious metals can vary greatly and are highly dependent on individual factors and market conditions. It's important to note that trading in precious metals can be subject to volatility and fluctuations, and there are no guarantees of specific earnings. While gold and silver have demonstrated a long-term upward trend, it is crucial to approach trading with realistic expectations.
Over the long term, precious metals have historically shown the potential for favorable returns. However, short-term gains can be less predictable. It's important to have a long-term perspective and not expect significant profits within a short period. Patience and a strategic approach are key when investing in precious metals.
It's worth mentioning that the scarcity of precious metals, especially gold, has a significant impact on their value. As the available supply diminishes over time while demand remains steady or increases, the price per unit tends to rise. This trend is driven by the basic principles of supply and demand.
In summary, while precious metals can offer good returns over the long term, it's important to manage expectations and understand that substantial earnings may take years or even decades to materialize.
Investing in precious metals offers both advantages and disadvantages. Here are the key pros and cons to consider:
Advantages:
Safe haven investment: Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are often viewed as safe haven assets during economic uncertainty or market instability. They can act as a hedge against inflation, currency devaluation, and geopolitical risks.
Diversification: Precious metals provide diversification benefits to an investment portfolio. They have a low correlation with traditional assets like stocks and bonds, which can help reduce overall portfolio risk and enhance stability.
Tangible assets: Precious metals are physical assets that can be held directly, offering a sense of ownership and security for some investors. Having tangible assets can also provide a potential alternative during times of financial crisis or disruptions in the banking system.
Disadvantages:
Volatility: Precious metal prices can be highly volatile, experiencing significant price swings within short periods. This volatility can pose risks, especially for short-term traders or those seeking quick profits.
Limited income potential: Unlike stocks or bonds, precious metals do not generate income through interest payments or dividends. Their value primarily relies on price appreciation, which may limit their long-term growth potential compared to income-generating investments.
Storage and insurance costs: If investing in physical precious metals, storage and insurance expenses can add to the overall costs of ownership. Proper storage facilities and insurance coverage are necessary to protect the value of the assets, which can eat into potential returns.
Market manipulation concerns: Critics argue that the precious metals market may be susceptible to manipulation by large players or governments, potentially leading to artificial price movements that may not reflect true supply and demand dynamics.
It's important for investors to carefully weigh these advantages and disadvantages, taking into account their financial goals, risk tolerance, and the broader investment landscape. Consulting with a financial advisor or conducting thorough research is recommended before making any investment decisions in precious metals.
Are Precious Metals A Good Investment For You?
Determining whether precious metals are a good investment for you requires considering various factors such as your financial goals, risk tolerance, and investment timeframe. Here are some key points to consider:
Diversification: Precious metals can serve as a valuable component of a diversified investment portfolio, as they often have a low correlation with other asset classes. This diversification can help mitigate risk and stabilize portfolio performance.
Inflation protection: Precious metals are historically considered a hedge against inflation since their value tends to rise when the purchasing power of fiat currencies declines. If protecting against inflation is a priority for you, investing in precious metals could be advantageous.
Volatility: It's important to recognize that precious metals can experience significant price volatility, which may not align with the risk tolerance of every investor. If you are uncomfortable with substantial price fluctuations, other investment options may be more suitable.
Liquidity: Precious metals generally offer high liquidity, meaning they can be easily bought or sold on major exchanges. This accessibility allows for flexibility and quick access to funds when needed.
Long-term perspective: Investing in precious metals, particularly gold, often yields gradual and steady returns over the long term. Patience is crucial when investing in these assets, as their growth tends to occur gradually rather than in short-term bursts.
Considering these factors, it is recommended to conduct thorough research, assess your individual circumstances, and consult with a financial advisor before deciding if precious metals are a suitable investment for you.
Seasonal Futures Market Patterns Gold & SilverHey traders today I wanted to go over the best Seasonal Patterns in the Gold & Silver Futures Market. Gold & Silver and other precious metal markets follow an annual reliable seasonal pattern due to supply and demand . Knowing when to find these seasonal market patterns on your charts can really benefit us in our trading.
Enjoy!
Trade Well,
Clifford
Knowing when NOT to trade is also important | XAUUSD Today we will take a look at XAUUSD. I really like this asset to trade because of the consistent trends it provides, which are great for swing traders.
When you are executing a swing strategy , the main thing is avoiding choppy conditions and increasing the odds of developing setups on situations where you may observe clean trends from point A to point B.
In this situation, I want to show how I'm currently thinking XAUUSD . Since MAY 2021, the price has been moving sideways on an average price of 1800, going up and down. This is the type of situation where I don't want to develop swing setups because I'm not observing trending behavior. That's why NOT trading is protecting my capital from low-quality setups. The better you become at waiting for perfect scenarios, the higher the odds to engage on high-quality trades that provide a clear edge after several executions.
As you can see, I have defined the current area between the support and the resistance as "Bad zones for swing setups." And I have defined the support and the resistance zone as "good levels for setups" Why?
Because as I explained before, in the current area, we are not observing clear trends for us to develop swing setups. That's why we need to wait for the price to make contact with key levels (support and resistance). It is from these key levels that 2 things may happen: the price will break it or bounce. As we are working on a weekly timeframe, these situations will not occur in a few hours, it will take days until the resolution of the direction. That's why if you do your homework, you can get ready to react in the best way once the price reaches these zones where we will tend to observe some reactions and the beginning of a new movement.
My current plan is this:
IF the price reaches the support zone at 1680, I want to start thinking in bullish setups towards 1900 or bearish setups towards 1450
IF the price reaches the resistance zone at 1900, I want to start thinking in bullish setups towards 2070 or bearish setups towards 1680
I hope this post is helpful to better understand the difference between good and bad zones to develop setups. Remember becoming patient can be a POWERFULL edge on the market. Most of the people are not. Thanks for reading and feel free to share your view in the comments!
Inflation Coming? Gold About to Enter Bear Market! $1690 is critical for gold to hold. Should it close below that level (marked by the Red Indicator line), we will think of shorting gold.
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How to understand price action.
It is very easy to read price action if you have a reference point. These support/resistance lines are there to help you read where the buyers and sellers are likely to make a stand.
You can also think of these indicators as moving pivot points .
MasterChartsTrading Price Action Indicators show good price levels to enter or exit a trade.
The Blue indicator line serves as a Bullish Trend setter.
If your instrument closes above the Blue line, we think about going Long (buying).
For commodities and Forex, when your trading instrument closes below the Red line, we think about Shorting (selling).
For Stocks, I prefer to use the Yellow line as my Bearish Trend setter (on Daily charts). A stock has to close below the Yellow line first, then rally towards the Red line and top out there. This is where I would short it.
Be sure to hit that Follow button! Please find me on social networks via the link on my profile page for more ideas from @MasterCharts!
Golden Opportunities- lessons from the last two yearsIt all started with gold prices falling in 2018, and after a while, I started looking for potential opportunities in Gold. What followed was a long time friend by the same namesake suddenly popped up to ask for my opinion specifically about gold... and this was two years ago today, short of a few days, in mid-August 2018 (see chart by zooming out).
Since then, the gray arrows mark the theoretical ideal entry points and the white arrows are my real entry points. You can see a particular pattern here, which I spoke of previously, where it is more favorable a time for entry based on a set of rules that includes technicals and patterns, providing a higher probability of a good profit, be it for a trade, investment, or longer term holding.
Coming back to the last two weeks, I have had many people asking about gold, and my opinion about it, etc. many are ready to enter the gold market. You see, most of it was sparked off by the recent gold rush (as is always), and I noticed that often, there is a lack of rules from the beginning, for entry nor for exit.
So herein is a visual set of rules I have for entry in gold which were tested over the last two years...
1. Price must break above a down sloping trend line; and
2. MACD must cross the zero line; and
3. Price must be higher than the recent highs (of the last 11/13/21, whichever is preferred)
These rules work very well, particularly when two conditions are met:
1. Weekly chart is favorable in trend (this case, trending up); and
2. There is a strong fundamental reason (this case is very robust for Gold to be in favour)
So there you go... I hope everyone can see that to buy gold at the current time (or In recent weeks) is probably not as favorable as you would like it to be, notwithstanding that Gold may advance higher at some point, anyways. In fact, it is projected that gold should be topping out around 2100, next week perhaps (reference the white line).
High Net Worth Strategies - What is High Net Worth Investing?What is High Net Worth Investing?
In order to understand what high net worth investing is, you need to understand what a high net worth individual (HNWI) is.
A high net worth individual, as the name suggests, is a wealthy individual with at least $1 million in liquid financial assets.
In the financial industry, the high net worth status is based on how a bank wishes to classify its clients.
There are two characteristics that classify you as a high net worth individual:
Having considerable liquid assets.
Having many investable assets.
As wealth accumulation increased and more and more people have become HNWI, a new class of wealthy people has been created, namely the ultra-high net worth individuals.
An ultra-high net worth individual (UHNWI) is someone with at least $30 million in liquid assets.
Now that you understand what it means to be an HNWI or UHNWI, let’s learn some high net worth investing strategies used by HNWI.
How Do High Net Worth Investors Invest?
Imagine if you could use the same investment principles as the high net worth individuals.
The high net worth investors have a large amount of capital available for investing.
So, how do high net worth families invest their capital?
The traditional asset allocation model for high net investors is 60/40:
60% equities
40% Fixed Income (bonds)
This asset allocation model provides a diversified and more balanced source of income. While it is a rule of thumb, it is still very useful. Equities will pay investors dividends, while bonds will pay investor interest.
This can be considered a form of passive investing.
These types of investing strategies for the high net worth investor will also benefit from stock price appreciation. At the same time, bonds offer stability and income predictability.
The traditional asset allocation model of 60/40 served investors very well in the 80s and 90s, during a time when interest rates were much higher.
Today, bond yields are at the all-time record low, so the traditional asset allocation model won’t work that well in the current environment.
So, it’s necessary to adopt different high net worth strategies.
And, that’s exactly what we’re going to discuss below:
Investing Strategies for High Net Worth Investor.
The high net worth investors are the type of people who know what to do if someone gives them $1 million.
Ask yourself this question:
If you were to inherit today $1 million, would you spend the money?
Or, would you invest the $1 million?
If you’re not going to spend the money, then where should you invest $1 million right now?
Well, the first step is to search for the best brokers for fixed income trading for high net worth and start from there.
You should also diversify your investments and seek opportunities that have enhanced return potential and favorable tax treatment.
Currently, many traders are realizing the old asset allocation model is changing. Instead of using the broken 60/40 asset allocation model, traders are becoming a bit more creative and are currently experimenting with new approaches.
With the new approach, the high net worth individuals are able to diversify their investment beyond the standard stocks and bond model.
Here is an investing strategy for the high net worth investor that includes attractive alternatives.
See below:
High Net worth Strategies #1: Asset Allocation Strategies
Asset allocation is the process of deciding how much of each asset class (equities, bonds, real estate and cash) you should hold in your portfolio. There is no optimal asset allocation model as it all falls back on the money managers’ ability to seize attractive risk-adjusted return opportunities.
For example, a typical high net worth asset allocation model looks something like this:
50% equities
10% infrastructure
10% private equity
10% real estate
10% hedge funds
10% fixed income
The time horizon of this type of asset allocation model is much bigger. This type of investment is typically held for years.
Nowadays, the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is widely used to quantify the correlation between risk and the expected return. As the Harvard Business Review explains, CAPM sees risk and return as being decided by a portfolio exposure to market beta.
Check out HERE what is Beta in trading.
By combining the US stocks and global stocks into a portfolio, this will improve the risk and return relative to each of the stock selection. Compared to stocks, bonds are less risky, but they have lower expected returns.
However, most stock model portfolios work well if they include growth stocks, which bring us to the next investing strategies for the high net worth investor.
High Net worth Strategies #2: Growth Stocks
Buying and holding growth stocks is a form of passive investing favored by the high net worth individuals.
For example, if an investor has invested in Amazon stock back in 2015, the investor would have increased the investment by more than 700% by mid-2020.
Growth stocks may or may not offer dividends (the certainly offer fewer dividends than blue-chip stocks), but they remain attractive because they produce returns through share price appreciation. Growth stocks also come with tax advantages because the investor is not obligated to pay taxes while holding the stock. Additionally, if you hold the stock for more than one year, your gains are taxed as long-term capital gains.
The long-term capital gains are taxed at a lower rate than the short-term capital gains.
We’re going to outline additional strategies for establishing asset allocation.
See below:
More Investing Strategies for High Net worth Investor.
If you want to achieve to optimize asset allocation and minimize risk, you need to look into the different approaches that high net worth individuals use.
We’re going to summarize for you five of the most common asset allocation strategies used by HNWI:
1 - Strategic asset allocation adheres to a proportional combination of assets based on expected rates of return. For example, if stocks historically returned 15% per year and bonds have returned only 5%, you would put more weight on stocks.
2 - Constant-weighing asset allocation strategy – with this approach you constantly adjust your portfolio. For example, if stocks would drop in value, you would buy more at a cheaper price.
3 - Tactical asset allocation – helps HNWI to take advantage of exceptional short-term investment opportunities. This is a type of active trading strategy.
4 - Dynamic asset allocation – this is another type of active trading strategy that helps you adjust your portfolio as markets rise and fall. For example, if the stock market is showing weakness or the economy is entering a recession, you sell stocks in anticipation of a drop in the stock price.
5 - Insured asset allocation – this approach is more suitable for the risk-averse investor because it seeks to protect the portfolio value by not allowing it to drop below a certain threshold.
That pretty much sums up how the wealthy stay wealthy and can become even wealthier.
The bottom line is that asset allocation is not an exact science and it all depends on your financial goals and experience.
What you can do as a small investor is to diversify your portfolio. While you might not have the money to buy real estate and a good amount of stocks, you can seek alternative investments.
For example, you can trade stocks, ETFs, currencies and another part of your money to be allocated to cryptocurrencies.
Let’s now see how the ultra-rich invest their money. Are ultra-high net worth strategies different from high net worth strategies? Generally, they are similar, but there are still a few important details to pay attention to.
See below:
Ultra-High Net Worth Investment Strategies.
A new breed of investors evolved among high net worth individuals and these are the ultra-high net worth investors. As explained above, UHWIs are defined as having investable assets of at least $30 million.
So, where do the ultra-rich invest their money?
According to the Wealth Report Attitudes Survey 2020 (see figure below) the UHNWI asset allocation model is more diversified. The Wealth Report revealed that the average UHNWI investment portfolio was invested in each asset class as follows:
27% in real estate.
23% in equities.
17% in bonds and fixed income.
11% in cash (currencies).
8% in private equity.
5% in collectibles (including art, antiques, and other expensive items).
3% in gold and precious metals.
1% in cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin and altcoins).
We can note that there is an increased interest in investing in the long-term, which is the case for real estate investments.
Additionally, you can see that 11% of the wealth is held in cash, which means UHNWIs are active in the forex market as well. Currency trading for high net worth individuals is again done over the long term.
Now, how the average investor can invest like a billionaire?
Ray Dalio an American hedge fund manager said:
“It’s more difficult to succeed in the markets than it’s to succeed in the Olympics”
For more trading quotes, please see Top Trading Quotes of all Time.
While everyone is saying it’s difficult to succeed in the markets, it’s not impossible.
And, trading like a billionaire is a different ball game altogether.
If you want to replicate the ultra-high net worth investment strategies and be a billionaire someday, these are the 10 things you should be doing:
1. Invest only in what you know.
2. Understand the difference between price versus value. When the price is well below the stock value than it’s the best time to buy a stock.
3. Identify cheap investments (e.g. high net worth cryptocurrency trading).
4. Invest in durable time tested businesses.
5. Research the team management team behind a company.
6. “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful” from Warren Buffett wisdom.
7. Develop a long-term mindset.
8. Invest in Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway stock, which has outperformed the S&P 500 for decades.
9. Invest in overseas stocks.
10. Diversification.
These investing principles can help you invest your $10,000 like an ultra-high net worth investor.
Final Words – High Net Worth Strategies
In summary, when you’re a high net worth investor managing your wealth can be a challenge. The HNWI don’t invest like the average investor, they use ultra-high net worth investment strategies to accumulate more wealth.
The investing strategies for the high net worth investor that have produced the most profits are the ones that are sufficiently diversified. Diversification is key to how wealthy people preserve their wealth and accumulate more wealth.
You can too invest like a wealthy person if you start using the principles outlined through this high net worth strategies guide.
Thank you for reading!
The current state of currencies, and what needs to be improved"The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that's required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust." - Satoshi Nakamoto
1. Accepted
Government Fiats (Majors): 10/10. Businesses are required by law to accept the country currency, and problems are extremely rare. When moving, currencies can easilly be traded between each other (Majors, with some countries it gets more complicated).
Crypto (Bitcoin): 1/10. Some businesses are accepting it. Very few. Businesses are not very eager to accept it because of low score on other factors, in particular (4).
Gold & Silver: 1/10. Currently not very accepted, but if end up in a foreing country or international waters you could negociate... You'll enbd up paying double thought.
==> Dependant on the law and also other qualities on this list. Crypto can score 10 here.
2. Elasticity - Perfect scenario: is usued/created in parallel of GDP growth, and contracts when people borrow too much (or gdp goes down)
I think this is the main reason why we have fiats everywhere today. This feature is absolutely indispensable (and fiats make it easy).
Governement Fiats: 3/10. It's not expanding and contracting as the economy needs, but as the incompetent central banks want it to. Short version, it's just really handled terribly. It could be done right, but it is not. At least the economy is not frozen because of the currencies limitations.
Crypto (Bitcoin): 0/10. I can't speak for all cryptos, but clearly Bitcoin is absolute garbage here. The supply is limited and that's it. Hard limit. And it's not like we only mined 1% and could ignore this. Issuance is not dependant on the economy at all. If GDP triples, there won't be 3 times as much Bitcoin. Bonus negative consequences are that people have no incentive to spend any... Just "hodl" and make money for doing nothing. It's just objectively so bad.
Gold & Silver: 5/10. In a scenario where mines are highly regulated/controlled, a central authority could mint or store based on the economy need. But we all know how it always ends up... They are going to use their reserves or mine more to finance a war, or just because they got bored like the FED...
===> Perfect solution here would be a free market... With traders buying and selling the currency based on gdp. It can be issued based on the free market data for a year or something. A cryptocurrency, sure, imagine. It could have in its code this incredible feature, and the blockchain code itself would mine the right amount of coins based on the market/GDP info. Someone tell Craig Wright to do this!
3. Transportable
Government Fiats (Majors): 9/10. Pretty good for this purpose. Million in cash will be complicated. Electronically it's ok, banks will do it rapidly enough.
Crypto (Bitcoin): 10/10. Pretty much as perfect as can be. You can transport any amount anywhere as long as they have an internet connection.
Gold & Silver: 7/10. Large amounts can be transported. 50,000 usd hold in a small gold bar the size of an iphone. For millions you'll need a bank and move it electronically.
4. Stable price (including inflation)
Government Fiats (Majors): 8/10. The price is not so volatile it's impossible to use but the central banks are prone to suffocate people. The US central bank was created to prevent government from hyperinflating their currency (for example printing money to pay for a war), and it is better, but there is room for improvement. Right now central banks are printing imaginary money, as well as buying stocks, the FED has a 4 trillion balance sheet, which had the result of rendering the 90% absolutely broke. And the 10% are wealthy as ever. Over the long run, in the case of the US (this is the chart I have on tv), we see that inflation has not outpaced real gdp much. Can be improved, but it is not too bad.
The pound which is 400 or 500 years old has done well for all this time. Most majors are ok here, not sure about the recent euro.
Crypto (Bitcoin): 0/10. Well... Obviously. The main selling point of Bitcoin "to fight inflating currencies" is its main weakness. US "real" inflation means the usd only lost 35% of its value over 61 years. Bitcoin is down 52% from its high less than 2 years ago (no need to inflation ajust here, impact is tiny), and regularly loses 35% of its value in a day.
Gold & Silver: 9/10. Historically have kept a rather stable value while they were used. Value dropped hard a couple centuries ago when the spanish introduce a huge supply of new world gold to the old world. We are NOT suddenly going to start mining incredible amounts from asteroids and the ocean. That argument is beyond idiotic. People need to stop watching star trek so much. I only mentionned this to laugh at the expense of the clowns that use this argument.
5. Durable: Doesn't rot, rust or evaporate.
Government Fiats (Majors): 9/10. Paper money can get used, but you can change it, old notes get destroyed and new ones get created. Plus electronic money doesn't perish. All good.
Crypto (Bitcoin): 10/10. As long as there is no hack or bug of course :p
Gold & Silver: 10/10. Last for eternity, never has any issue.
6. Economical (to create) OR inherently valuable.
Government Fiats (Majors): 10/10. Infinite amounts of money can be created out of thin air at nearly no (direct) expense.
Crypto (Bitcoin): -1/10. 0 fundamental value unarguably (I don't even know how anyone can argue this). While creating them is more expensive than what they sell for, in 90% of the world. And as the price fluctuates this gets better or worse, usually worse. When the price goes down miners lose (unless they shorted), when the price goes up more eager new miners get excited and push the price of mining up so miners lose again.
Gold & Silver: 5/10. Actually gold is "overvalued". Its value as a commodity is not that high compared to the price. I don't really know about silver. So here it's meh. Salt probably outscore this.
7. Homogeneity
All 10/10 here.
8. Divisible
Government Fiats (Majors): 9/10. Can be divided down to tiny fractions. Electronically there is virtually no limit.
Crypto (Bitcoin): 10/10. Absolutely no limit. Can be divided infinitly. This is absolute perfection here. We cannot innovate further. Can't divide more than infinitly to any number wanted.
Gold & Silver: 7/10. Coins or blocks or electronic value at the bank? It's not that bad but far from perfection. Historically the maleability and ease to mess with made those pretty good for this, but far from perfect, and we can now do much better, we reached perfection.
9. Supervised
There has to be some sort of regulation, some way of printing the right amount. As well as a body being able to take decisions when there are conflicts or uncertainties. Also to lend money and fix interest rates. Control a country or countries debt. Controls financial institutions, in particular banks.
Government Fiats (Majors): 5/10. Central banks overdo it and suffocate every one. They are so incompetent. Yikes. Pumping the stock market and creating alot of anger hate and a political divide in the world. They may single handidly create world war 3. Maybe I should score this -10/10.
Crypto (Bitcoin): 0/10. Beurk. Alot of cryptos are using "smart contracts" and this may be a step in the right direction. But of course it is missing a lot. There could be a scenario here where the economy gets killed by its Bitcoin currency. Bitcoin could be regulated and everything but there are limits. It's built in as a feature to be totally lawless. No one can guarentee the money borrowed will be paid back. No one to act in case of an emergency. No central authority to lend money to money lenders & also set rates (so oligarchs will lend money at the rate they decide just like in the 19th century and the world will be their slaves with no light at the end of the tunnel, or during germany just before the NAZI). On this aspect, Bitcoin is one huge pile of excrement.
Gold & Silver: 10/10. Price is dictated by the free market. I love this! Jk I don't know tbh. Depends who controls the supply and regulates it.
10. Scarce/Difficult to counterfeit.
Government Fiats (Majors): 5/10. The numbers in banks database can't just magically appear right? Notes can be counterfeit if the person accepting them isn't paying much attention. Doesn't happen that often. To remedy to this rather poor attribute here comes the justice system, countries are threatening to punish those that do counterfeit their currencies.
Crypto (Bitcoin): 10/10. Unless you are stupid enough to buy "physical bitcoins" from "some dude" on the street, Bitcoin scores 10 here.
Gold & Silver: 6/10. I guess you can make fake precious metals, maybe some iron bar coated with gold. For big amounts people will check...
It's not considered most important, and currencies are able to function even without scoring perfectly here. Still... really not that great to not be at 8-10/10.
11. Easily recognizable: No slow weighing etc.
Government Fiats (Majors): 8/10. It's easy to recognize. The problem is it's not easy to be 100% sure you aren't getting scammed.
Crypto (Bitcoin): 10/10. Instant. Not much to say, Bitcoin is perfect.
Gold & Silver: 7 or 8/10. Same as fiat. With coins it would be easier maybe. Someone comes to a random person with a gold or silver nugget they might not immediatly recognize what metal that is, mistake silver for iron or palladium :D So maybe 7.
12. Secure
Government Fiats (Majors): 5/10. Hard to score this. If you got cash in your pocket it's as secure as you make it. If it's in a bank it's secure enough, but far inferior as with cryptocurrencies.
Crypto (Bitcoin): 9/10. I'm not going to give a 10, because the whole network can be crashed and everything lost. There is no central authority making backups of the blockchain :) Other than that it's as secure as can be.
Gold & Silver: 5/10. Your gold nugget can be stolen easilly. If it's in a bank vault it can't. Depends on you to protect it.
13. Cheap, quick, and easy to use.
Government Fiats (Majors): 9/10. Electronic or physical payments are cheap and rapid.
Crypto (Bitcoin): 0 to 10 /10. Depends on the tech. Right now... If a few people start using Bitcoin fees go up to $50/tx and take forever... If half the planet started using it fees would probably be in the millions and tx times would be what? years? Absolutely ridiculous. Tech itself is limited. Bitcoin just cannot be used.
Gold & Silver: 8/10. There might be some weighting required. With electronic gold or even coins, it's pretty fast & simple.
Conclusion:
Countries fiat is usuable, barely. It's just not good enough. We have to get rid of this degen money printing, there is a little too much inflation but that's not that bad.
It could be used as is, as long as the central banks are limited. That's the main issue. Central bank is doing too much, and in particular too much bad things. They have to stop trying to FORCE the economy to go up. Free to operate Businesses, Innovators, Financeers, and Global Trade are what makes an economy go up / create wealth not some out of touch bureaucrat making idiotic decisions to try and FORCE innovations somehow sdknjfsdfksdhjfsdkhj - having a stroke - IDIOTS. It's unbelievable how stupid they are. I just am amazed. Did I land on planet of the apes? F sake. Satoshi got desperate. There is reason to be.
If the central authorities were doing the job right, then current fiat currencies are actually not that bad.
Of course, they can be improved on certain aspects. There is room for innovations to make it better.
One of Bitcoin bears main argument is it is no fundamental value, it is made out of thin air. But it is a wrong argument. It has 0 relevance if a currency has value or not. It's purpose is not to hold value but to allow transactions (paul has rice and wants oranges peter has oranges but wants phones...). Bitcoin is near perfect or even perfect in terms of security divisibility durability transportability...
Bitcoin scores very high on some aspects, and terribly on other ones. You do not make an average score and go "oh that's good enough". It absolutely HAS to keep a minimum score on all aspects. It's like it cures your broken finger by chopping your whole arm off. It's just ridiculous XD "The more people know about Bitcoin the less bullish they are on it". Yup.
Precious metals are ok but we can do better. Going to be very complicated to have elasticity. Does an international government control the supply? Each country with gold mines?
Doesn't seem viable to me.
Best bet is a central bank fiat/electronic currency with rules that make sense.