Increase the difficulty level on yourself. Often, traders like to make things a lot harder for themselves than they need to. Everyone is seeking a silver bullet, truth is "less is actually more".
Dow Theory is actually the Grandfather of technical analysis.
If you have never heard of this, or even if you have and brushed over it, you are missing out.
Some people will say things like "it's over 100 years old it can't work in today's market"
Yet, humans have changed very little in those last 100+ years. Sentiment driven by fear and greed is where the secret is hidden.
Let me explain by saying Dow theory has 6 "rules" (tenets).
1) Market Moves in Trends Markets have three types of movements: primary trends (long-term trends that last for years), secondary trends (medium-term trends that retrace parts of the primary trend), and minor trends (short-term trends that are typically noise).
You will notice I used the weekly for the larger and the daily for the second.
When I journal my trade setups; I simply use a traffic light system red lines size 4 for primary, then orange line 3 for secondary and green size 2 for the trigger phase. In addition to that, I mark the trends with 3 boxes and arrows pointing up down or sideways.
The second rule;
Each trend has three phases:
Accumulation Phase. In this phase, informed investors start buying or selling, counter to the general market opinion.
Public Participation Phase, more investors notice the trend after it is already underway, and media coverage expands, driving the trend further. (Wyckoff called this a mark-up or mark-down phase)
Excess Phase (or Distribution): At this point, speculation is rampant and detached from actual value, leading informed investors to prepare an exit.
This is where a lot of Wyckoff, Elliott and other tools such as Smart money concepts all overlap.
Then, the 3rd rule.
The market reflects all available information, such as economic conditions and sentiment. Therefore, movement in the market averages considers and reflects this information. (in simple terms, discount the news).
4) For a trend to be validated, different market averages must confirm each other. For example, the trend in the Dow Jones Industrial Average should be confirmed by the Dow Jones Transportation Average. If one index moves to a new high or low, the other should follow suit to confirm the trend.
(I like this one less, but in some instances it can make the next move very obvious.)
Rule 5) The trend is your friend, until the end. Until you see a clear change in the direction, a market shift. The trend is still in play. This one, I feel most just can't comprehend.
As you can see below, I have marked up the extreme high and low, I know both my primary and secondary trends are down. So now, I can use my EW bias or start looking for a Wyckoff schematic. (if I believe we are about to see a shift in the trend.)
You can start to look for information for areas of interest, look into volume and volume profiles.
The last rule. Confirming the trend volume expanding in the direction of the primary trend. For an uptrend, volume should increase as prices rise and decrease during corrections. In a downtrend, volume should increase as prices fall.
In this example, the Fibonacci levels line up, the volume is slowing, the EW count makes some sense and zoomed out you can see a shift.
Now, with all of this info - we could look at "areas of interest"
We are in a demand zone on the higher time frame.
At this stage, there is no trade entry, but if we were to view a change in the character we could simply take a trade as a pullback on the primary trend down.
Something like this;
You see, all you are doing is following the trend and taking a look at other tools, auction areas, fib extensions, an EW bias, and hints of a Wyckoff schematic. But under the hood, the 3 trend principle is a simple-to-follow process.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Professionaltrader
How to Become a Professional Trader!The Triad of Successful Trading:
Strategies, Psychology, and Risk Management.
Introduction:
In the dynamic world of trading, achieving success is a multifaceted challenge that requires a comprehensive approach. While many enthusiasts focus primarily on trading strategies, it is crucial to recognize that a holistic approach, incorporating trading psychology and risk management, is indispensable for sustained success. This article delves into the three pillars of successful trading: trading strategies, psychology, and risk management.
Trading Strategies (25 Marks):
A robust trading strategy serves as the foundation of a trader's success. This section explores the importance of having a well-defined and tested trading strategy. Investors must understand that possessing the same strategy as others does not guarantee success; execution and adherence are key. Points will be awarded based on the clarity and effectiveness of the chosen strategy, as well as the ability to adapt to changing market conditions.
Trading Psychology (35 Marks):
Trading psychology plays a pivotal role in determining success or failure in the financial markets. This section emphasizes the significance of maintaining a disciplined and rational mindset. Factors such as emotional control, patience, and the ability to handle losses are crucial components of a trader's psychological makeup. The article will explore techniques to cultivate a resilient mindset, addressing the common pitfalls that novice traders often encounter.
Risk Management (40 Marks):
Arguably the most critical aspect of successful trading, risk management deserves the lion's share of consideration. This section delves into the methodologies and practices that traders should adopt to protect their capital. Key areas of discussion include position sizing, setting stop-loss orders, and diversification. The article will emphasize the importance of preserving capital and preventing catastrophic losses, assigning points based on the thoroughness and effectiveness of the risk management approach.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, the path to becoming a successful trader hinges on the harmonious integration of trading strategies, psychology, and risk management. While a strong trading strategy provides direction, a disciplined mindset ensures adherence to the plan, and prudent risk management safeguards against significant setbacks. Traders must recognize that neglecting any one of these pillars compromises the overall structure of their trading endeavors. By assigning marks to each component, this article underscores the balanced significance of these three elements and emphasizes their collective role in achieving success in the complex world of trading.
I'm Shaw, a seasoned forex trader with 14+ years of success. Whether you're new or experienced,
I'm here to help you achieve long-term profitability.
Trending Hashtags:
#TradingSuccess
#TraderMindset
#RiskManagement
#TradingStrategies
#FinancialMarkets
#TradingPsychology
#InvestmentStrategy
#CapitalProtection
#MarketDiscipline
#ProfessionalTrader
What you need to know about being Bullish!As a long time trader and professional investor, it's been awesome seeing the evolution of Bitcoin. It's a place for influencers to say stupid things like Bitcoin to 100k or 250k without any real merit or logic behind such a price point. Often the analysis consists of a handful of useless lines drawn from nowhere to somewhere of interest on the chart.
To understand what Bitcoin and the larger crypto market is doing, doesn't take a lot.
Especially as it becomes more and more institutional. I've talked about this for a long time here on @TradingView and showed each step of the way.
These moves are not as random as they appear.
There's a great book by Richard Ney, actually he has a couple talking about market makers and the effect on the markets. However, one little snippet he talks about how the market or a stock/instrument such as Bitcoin can be seen as a warehouse, think of the scale and number of shelves. Now think of the length of time to fully stack that warehouse. This isn't a quick factor...
Now break that idea down further & apply it to BTC. If the market makers are the owners of the warehouse, who do they sell to? Well retail of course. The issue is retail simply do not buy in bulk. Once retail get the urge to buy, the warehouse stock gets depleted 'over time'. In addition the market makers need to stock back up. So for them, they need to buy cheap and sell higher.
Trading 101
Over the last couple of years, I have shared a chart showing COT data, this is a US based sample size of in essence what the market makers are doing. The data is slow and clumpy, it's lagging much like all the other indicators - maybe even more so. However, that does not matter as all you are looking for is a general bias.
You only need to look at Larry Williams who won the Robbins World Cup Championship of Futures Trading, COT data is a key part of his strategy.
I've written several posts here covering the topic in more depth, but here's the current snapshot.
Asset Managers:
This image clearly shows a long, long term bias.
Next you have the Leveraged Funds:
This image is almost the inverse, we have a negative delta shown. Now in the past I have had people say to me "ah look, institutions getting REKT. Price going up and their short" What you need to understand is how this works. Let me ask you this "Who is selling to you in the rally" Well the guys who bought it cheaper.
So here's the lesson:
The factors for Bitcoin currently are pretty simple; you have a long term Bullish bias as seen by the Asset Managers . You have a shorter term Bearish bias of the Leveraged Funds
Therefore we can look at some other factors. Let's start with a zoomed out view of the market - let's go to a Monthly timeframe.
What do you see? Well, I see an overbought stochastic, I also see price moved up as volume fell down (more visible lower TF's). To translate this, the accumulation for the bigger picture is not quite over. Influencers think we are resting on 30k to rally to 250k next week. Unfortunately for their Demo accounts, the market doesn't think like that. Nor do the market makers!
Next you can also dig a little deeper into things like Dark Pools again I have covered this in another educational post.
As this is an educational post, let's put all of the pieces together.
1> COT data shows Leveraged Funds still have positions to sell
2> Asset Managers have a Bullish Bias
3> Monthly stochastic overbought
4> Volume doesn't match the move up
5> Dark pools... How much is being soaked up under the radar?
In the TradingView show back in May, I covered Wyckoff and Elliott and a little about composite man (market makers).
www.tradingview.com
When using such tools and techniques, the price becomes obvious. Why up or down and at what key levels.
Moves like this are pre programmed into the liquidity algorithm.
Things you can spot from miles away.
So let's finish on putting it all together - The conclusion would be, we are early on in an accumulation phase, we need to stockpile the warehouse to have momentum to newer highs. IF we go directly here we are capped - think of it like fuel in the tank.
I have talked about this on several of my streams here.
Coupled with the current view of the overall economy.
This doesn't have to be difficult.
I hope this helps some of you out.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
What is an "R"? Discover the Most Popular Way to Manage RiskUsing R multiples is one of the most widely used strategies by professional traders for managing risk and tracking results. The R multiple concept is extremely easy to use and implement into your own strategy. With this simple idea, money management will become a breeze! If you have any questions or comments I would love to hear them!
What ChatGPT has to say about Retail vs Professional Indicators?When it comes to trading, novice traders may be tempted to rely solely on retail trading indicators such as RSI, MACD, Stochastic RSI, Bollinger Band, and ADX. However, relying on these indicators can lead to traders losing money in the long run. One of the main problems with retail indicators is that they tend to generate false signals, which can lead to traders entering and exiting trades at the wrong time. Retail indicators are based on historical price data and do not take into account other factors that can affect market movements, such as news events, economic data, or geopolitical developments.
In contrast, professional trading indicators such as market internals, volume profile, market profile, open interest, and volume delta are essential for traders who want to stay profitable in the long run. These indicators provide a deeper understanding of market conditions, which allows traders to make more informed trading decisions.
Market internals can provide insights into the underlying market sentiment and identify potential changes in trend. For example, the NYSE Tick Index measures the number of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange that are trading on an uptick minus the number of stocks that are trading on a downtick. A high tick reading can signal bullish market sentiment, while a low tick reading can signal bearish market sentiment.
Volume profile, market profile, and open interest can help traders identify support and resistance levels, potential breakout points, and market structure, which can improve the accuracy of their trading decisions. For example, volume profile analysis can reveal where the most significant buying and selling activity is happening, which can help traders identify potential turning points in the market. Market profile analysis can reveal the market's value area, which is the price range where the majority of the trading activity has occurred. This information can help traders identify potential breakout points or reversal areas.
Volume delta can help traders identify market imbalances and potential trend changes. For example, if the price is going up, but the volume delta is negative, it can indicate that selling pressure is starting to build, which could lead to a potential reversal.
Professional traders also tend to use more advanced techniques, such as order flow analysis and footprint charts, which allow them to see the actual orders being executed in the market. This provides a more accurate view of market conditions and can help traders identify potential trading opportunities. For example, order flow analysis can help traders identify potential order imbalances and see where the big players are positioning themselves in the market.
Understanding the difference between lagging and leading indicators is crucial for traders who want to stay ahead of the market. While lagging indicators may provide some insights into past market conditions, they are not sufficient for making profitable trading decisions. Traders must learn to use leading indicators, such as professional trading indicators and advanced techniques, to gain a deeper understanding of market conditions and make more informed trading decisions.
In conclusion, relying solely on retail trading indicators can lead to traders losing money in the long run. Professional trading indicators, such as market internals, volume profile, market profile, open interest, and volume delta, provide a more accurate view of market conditions, which allows traders to make more informed trading decisions. Advanced techniques, such as order flow analysis and footprint charts, can help traders identify potential trading opportunities and gain a competitive edge in the ever-changing market.
Handling losses like a pro!Hey traders,
Ever wondered how some of the professional traders can lose tens of thousands of dollars and still not be phased? Well, today I am going to chat about how and why they have the ability to remain consistent and trust the process, and how you can do the same.
Enjoy!
How To Think Like A Professional TraderA strategy is only as good as the trader using it. Patterns are not enough, neither is support or resistance. Candle patterns help, but will not do the trick alone. Unless you can understand the structures of the markets, alongside the behaviour, then really and truly you are just trading blind. In this short episode, I go through three trade ideas that were planned out today (03/12/2020) on the RockzFX Academy live trading session, so you can get an idea of what it means to plan your trade, and trade your plan!
PROFESSIONAL TRADING STRATEGIES - One Good Trade at a TimeThe complete guide to professional trading strategies will reveal how to trade against the crowd and become a professional trader. The most efficient professional trading techniques used by hedge fund traders, bank traders, and prop traders will be outlined through this guide. Once you read them, you’ll have an AHA moment.
Trading is more than just slapping on a few keyboards or using your favorite support and resistance indicator. Professional traders do more than just that as they well-know this business requires time, effort, and the right professional trading tools to succeed.
There are no shortcuts if you want to trade like a professional trader.
The good news is that these professional trading techniques can be learned. You don’t need to have a special talent to become a professional trader, but you need to have the right mindset and an actually proven edge.
So, if you want to know how to trade like a professional trader, we’re going to coach you in the right direction.
Let’s get started!
Table of Contents
1 Becoming a Professional Trader
2 How To Trade Like a Professional Trader?
3 Tools That Professional Traders Use
4 Professional Trading Strategies
4.1 The 80 – 20 Trading Strategy
4.2 The Holy Grail Trading Strategy
4.3 Three Little Indians Trading Strategy
5 Final Words – Professional Trading Techniques
1 - Becoming a Professional Trader.
Professional traders aren’t born, they are made!
And, here is my proof…
Legendary trader Richard Dennis, who turned $1,600 into a $200 million fortune has successfully taught a group of traders known as The Turtles. With the Turtle experiment, Richard Dennis proved that anyone can learn how to be a professional trader.
Let me tell you a secret…
Most hedge fund managers, bank traders, and institutional traders learned to trade profitably from another successful trader. There are a few exceptions that are self-taught professional traders, but these only confirm the rule.
Learning to trade like a professional trader doesn’t mean working for a financial institution or trading large amounts of money. A professional trader is someone who over a period of time, has proven he or she can beat the market on a consistent basis.
Secondly, you need the winning mindset of a professional trader.
Now…
If, you might be wondering…
How to think and trade like a pro trader? You may want to check out this trading mindset PDF.
Here are a few characteristics of the mindset of a winning trader:
Pro traders are comfortable taking calculated risks.
Pro traders are self-disciplined traders.
Pro traders know how to leave their own personal opinions at the door.
Pro traders don’t take losing trades personally.
We can definitely add more things into the above list, but most often these are the things amateur traders can’t overcome.
Moving on…
Let’s see some of the professional trading techniques in action.
2 - How To Trade Like a Professional Trader?
According to Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D. author of The Psychology of Trading and a performance coach every elite trader can be characterized through 6 qualities. You can learn how professional traders trade by emulating these traits:
Ability to sustain focus (pro traders are either fast thinkers or deep thinkers).
Originality and creativity (while pro traders may use some well-known trading strategies, there is a uniqueness to how they execute that strategy).
All pro traders have learned from a mentor or other professional traders.
Emotional resilience (treating losses as a learning opportunity).
Attention to the details.
Always working to become better at this game.
So, professional traders derive their edge from all of the above-highlighted points.
However, we have kept the best professional trading techniques for last.
First, the world’s most talented traders are good at exploiting their edge.
What do we mean by this?
Simply put it, they are able to recognize what are their strengths and weakness are and then capitalize on those strengths. In other words, a pro trader is doing more of what works and less of what doesn’t work.
Let me explain…
For this, we’re going to assume that pro trader A from hedge fund ABC has identified that most of his profits come from scalping the stock opening bell. On the other hand, he also noticed that he is doing a terrible job trading breakouts.
Now, a professional trader will maximize his strengths by trading bigger sizes on the opening bell. And, at the same time, he will avoid trading breakouts.
Other professional trading techniques used by many pro traders are to take one good trade at a time.
While all the tools that the professional trader uses are equally important if we were to pick just one rule, this would be:
One good trade at a time followed by another one good trade.
In his book “One Good Trade – Inside the Highly Competitive World of Proprietary Trading,” Mike Bellafiore explains the characteristics of a good trade.
One good trade is a trade that strictly follows your setups and your plan.
Let me explain…
If you followed your plan, whether the trade yields you a profit or a loss, then that’s one good trade.
In other words, the inner workings of a good trade follow the trading rules you have set in place.
Of course, if you don’t have an edge, you can follow your trading rule as much as you want; they will produce the same type of results.
So, the first thing you need is a profitable trade setup that you know it works.
Moving on…
We’re going to share some of the tools that professional traders use.
Hint: It’s not what you think.
3 - Tools That Professional Traders Use.
The reality is that professional traders don’t gain their edge from special tools or special technical indicators. Most of the professional traders use the same trading tools that are available to retail traders as well.
So, if there are no professional trading indicators how come a professional trader can make money using the same trading tools as you do, but you still can’t seem to find any type of success?
Well, it all comes down to how you use professional trading tools.
A professional trader can take the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator and use it in a very unique way. This type of unconventional thinking is another trait of a professional trader.
Check out some professional trading techniques that have an unorthodox approach:
Best Average True Range Forex – An Unorthodox Approach
How to Trade The London Breakout Strategy With One Trick
Breakout Trading Strategy Used by Professional Traders
Hedge Fund Strategies and Tools Used on Wall Street
Secondly, you’re probably using indicators the wrong way.
The problem with indicators is not that they don’t work, but with the fact that you use them in the wrong way.
Let me explain…
We’re going to uncover the most common mistakes you’re doing when using technical indicators:
Using indicators in the wrong context.
Using indicators with the wrong settings (i.e. Trading short-term time frames with long-term settings).
Moving on…
We’re going to share with you some professional trading strategies used by top market wizards.
Professional Trading Strategies
Note* Some of the professional trading strategies outlined through this section can be found in the book “Street Smart” by Linda Bradford Raschke and Laurence Connors.
Moving forward.
We’re going to share with you some professional trading strategies used by top market wizards.
We’re going to share 3 professional trading strategies that work and give you some hints to pick the one that fits you.
Here is the list of what we’re going to write:
80-20 strategy for day trading like a pro,
The Holy Grail trading strategy (suitable for any market and TF).
Three Little Indians trading strategy (catching trend reversals like a pro).
My next posts will be these strategies.
Trade Forex Like an Investment BankWhat I will explain to you today is exactly how you should trade the Forex market and that few traders do.
What I am going to tell you has great value. You will hardly find that information in other videos or courses, and surely not for free. It comes from over 25 years of experience in financial markets, even as a fund manager.
I tell you immediately that if you are not willing to toil, it’s useless for you continuing to read. I won't give you the magic formula to get rich just by pressing a button.
Do you think I have become a professional trader, that is a person who trades for a living, in a day or month? I spent several years to study; I had a hard time (most of all at the beginning). I had to overcome several difficulties before I became the trader I am today.
Hard work, in trading like in every field of life, is the basis of success.
So, how should you trade the Forex market?
First, a mistake most Forex traders make is to consider a currency pair as a single market, a price. But a currency pair is not a stock or commodity.
Instead, you have to see a currency pair as two opposing economies. For example, you don’t have to see Eur-Usd as a single market, but as the Eurozone economy versus the American economy.
Why should you trade Eur-Usd like Apple or Facebook? On the one hand, you have an individual company, on the other side, two economies.
So, get used to considering a currency pair, not as a single market, a price, but as two opposing economies. Now you also understand why most traders who use technical analysis are losers. It’s certainly not an indicator in the overbought or oversold zone that makes a currency pair rise or fall.
After having understood this fundamental aspect of the Forex market, the next step is to buy the strength and sell the weakness. But to do that, you have to compare the two economies.
First equation :
strong economy means strong currency
and
weak economy means weak currency
So, let's see how you should proceed
First, for each economy, you need to research the macroeconomic data that make the currency market movements. And this is the simplest thing to do. Several sites show this data in real-time.
We can divide the main macroeconomic data into 4 areas:
1) Interest rates.
2) Growth (Gross Domestic Product).
3) Employment.
4) Inflation
Then, you have to compare and interpret the data to understand, for both the economies, what the situation is. And this, at least initially, is a little less simple.
You have to create two tables, one for each of the economies, and insert the main macroeconomic data. Once you have completed this step, by using the data, you need to compare the two economies to figure out which one is stronger. You can also create a graph with Excel or other software for each data, so as to get a more immediate visual image.
For example, if the graph of the unemployment rate in the United Kingdom is falling while that of the United States is moving sideways, even though the American economy remains stronger than the British one, right now it’s the British economy that is strengthening over the American one.
Second, you have to read the reports of the central banks, and listening to the speeches (or reading the transcripts) of their Presidents.
These are fundamental to understand the monetary policy implemented by each central bank. Also, you find the situation in the country and often a vision of the world economy. Statements and Minutes are therefore essential for understanding the next moves of a central bank concerning interest rates.
Second equation :
raising interest rates leads to a stronger currency
and
reducing interest rates leads to a weaker currency
The reports, and speeches of central bank Presidents, are essential also because the decisions on interest rates are sometimes known before their release. Which means that a decision has already been priced into the market.
It’s probably a process that may be difficult to implement initially, but believe me that, over time, you will be able to analyse a currency pair simply and clearly. Certainly, better than with technical analysis.
That was the first pillar of your Forex trading. You have seen how you have to analyse a currency pair. First, you have to see a currency pair not as a market, a price, but as two opposing economies. And then, you have not to use the technical analysis and indicators, but studying and understanding the fundamentals that drive a currency.
Now, let's see the second pillar.
After analysing a currency pair, you need to select your trade entry. But before…
Never forget : in the medium to long-term, it’s the fundamentals that drive a currency pair, but in the short-term, it’s speculation to do it.
For this reason, to buy for example Eur-Usd just because your analysis has told you that the currency pair will rise, it’s a bad idea.
So, how should you decide when to enter?
By using subjective probability.
I tell you that no strategy can give you the perfect trade entry. It’s all about probability.
Subjective probability is the numeric measure of chance (probability) that reflects the degree of a personal belief in the likelihood of an occurrence.
Subjective probability judgments are people's evaluations of the probability of uncertain events or outcomes. It contains no formal calculations and only reflects the subject's opinions and past experience.
Now, let's see how to use subjective probability, in trading.
Before, an Advice : avoid trading with many markets. Focus only on those you know well.
Because it’s essential to know well the currency pair that is being traded, how it behaves and moves, so you can understand what the key levels are. In this way, you will know which are the price levels with the highest odds of success for your trade entry.
Let me give you an example with the currency pair EUR-USD. Look at the chart above. You will certainly have noticed how the X.XX20 levels (i.e. 1.0920, 1.1020, 1.1120, 1.1220, etc.) for EUR-USD are often, not always, sensitive price levels.
That's just one aspect, a characteristic of EUR-USD. Once you understand how the currency pair moves, when you know it perfectly, you will no longer even need to open the chart to decide your trade.
And what about the take profit?
First, you need to know when to take your profit before opening the trade (you have to decide it in your trading plan). Then, it has to be a take profit statistically achievable and have a Risk/Reward at least 1:1.
To select your take profit, you have to put into the field all your knowledge of that currency pair, and how you did with the trade entry, use subjective probability.
This was the second pillar of your Forex trading. You have seen how to select your entry and exit points in trade. You have to use subjective probability, and thanks to your experience and knowledge of a currency pair, choose the trade entry with the higher odds of success.
Now let's see the third and final pillar. How to select the stop-loss and cancel the emotions.
It is well known that success in trading is determined by our emotionality. You have to put yourself in the best conditions to trade.
The problem with the management of emotions is that we are all different. So, it’s impossible to have a system that works for everyone, without distinction.
To erase your fears, anxieties, before opening the trade, you have to decide how much you are willing to lose with that trade. Then, you have to set the stop-loss on equity, that is the current value of your trading account, not the price.
But where to set the stop-loss?
You have to use the Value-at-Risk (VaR).
Value-at-Risk measures the potential loss in value of a risky asset or portfolio over a defined period for a given confidence interval.
The key elements of Value-at-Risk are:
1. a specified level of loss in value;
2. a fixed time period over which risk is assessed (1 day, 1 week, etc.);
3. a confidence interval (usually 95% or 99%)
Let’s see an example. If the Value-at-Risk on Eur-Usd is 1.81% at one-week, 95% confidence level, there is an only a 5% chance that the value of Eur-Usd will drop more than 1.81% over any given week.
Unfortunately, here I can't explain the calculation, but you can find it on my Forex e-Book and for free on the internet, in particular on YouTube.
At this point, all you have to do is calculate the correct position size to open, based on the maximum loss that you are willing to suffer, and that you must have already decided in your trading plan.
That's the way to dispel your doubts about how to set the stop-loss, how to cancel your emotions because using the Value-at-Risk, you are working like an investment bank, a fund manager.
This was the third and final pillar of your Forex trading. You have seen how to cancel your emotions thanks to Value-at-Risk. Now you have all the information to become a profitable trader in Forex trading, to trade like an investment bank.
You can get significant results in Forex trading, maybe even better than mine, but only if you apply what I explained to you, and you will work hard.
Happy trading to you all!