Ultimate Trading Strategy: Reaction to Supply and Demand Levels!🔍 Identifying Potential Buy or Sell Zones: In this step, you need to identify the zones that are likely to react and wait for the price to potentially reach them. ⏳📊
🌟 With the reaction to the first area, a buy trade is activated. 🌟
📝 Confirmations:
📉 Reaction to the expected area – Watch for a price movement hitting our anticipated zone!
🛠️ Formation of a combined hammer pattern – Look out for this powerful reversal signal!
📈 Formation of a bullish engulfing pattern – A strong indicator of upward momentum!
🔍 Trading Tips:
💡 High-risk stop-loss location:
👉 Place it below the candlestick pattern. At least twice the spread to ensure you're covered! 📏🔒
💡 Lower-risk stop-loss location:
👉 Place it below the expected area. Again, at least twice the spread for extra safety! 📏🔒
💰 Take-profit strategy:
👉 Base it on risk management mathematics, such as risk-reward ratios of 2, 4, and 6.
👉 Alternatively, observe reactions to past market areas, especially near important market highs and lows. 📊📈
🎯 Entry point strategies:
👉 Enter at the close of the confirmation candle.
👉 Or, set a limit order around 50% of the confirmation candle for a bigger volume opportunity! 📉📈
🌟 Buying in Two Phases: A Smart and Exciting Strategy! 🌟
🔹 Phase One:
When you reach a profit of twice the risk, exit the trade. Why? Because the Asian high has been hunted and the candlestick formed has a long upper shadow. 🌄💹
💡 Analysis:
The price hasn’t reached other zones yet and has risen in reaction to the first expected zone. Therefore, we expect a pullback and continued upward movement. 💪📈 So, I’ll place a second buy trade. 🚀💵
🔍 Confirmations for the Second Buy Trade:
A double bottom has formed, marked with an X. ❌❌
A small hammer candlestick has swept the double bottom. 🔨
A long positive shadow candlestick has swept the bottom and reacted to a small order block on the left. 🌟
💡 Tips for the Second Buy Trade:
Enter at the close of the long-shadowed doji candlestick or place a stop limit order above the long-shadowed doji candlestick. 📉📈
The stop loss should be below this candlestick. 📏🔒
🔹 Phase Two:
Next, the price has reached an expected reaction zone from where we expected a price drop. 🌐💡
🔍 Confirmations for the Sell Trade:
Reaction to the expected zone. 🔍
An inverse hammer candlestick reacting to the zone. 🔨
💡 Tips for the Sell Trade:
The entry point should be in a candlestick with a negative signal indicating a price drop. This hammer candlestick can indicate a decline. 📉🔻
The target can be a reward of 2 or the last price bottom. 🎯💰
The stop loss should preferably be behind the expected zone. 📏🔒
🔥 Important Points!!:
Since the price hasn’t deeply penetrated the zones, there’s a chance it might go higher or even mitigate this zone twice, ultimately turning it into a pullback for a further price rise. 🚀📈
Continuing on, the price reached the upper zone area.
We expected a price drop from this zone, but it reached at 03:15,
which is outside our trading session. However, we could have traded on it.
🔍 Sell Confirmations:
The price has reached the expected zone.
An inverse hammer candlestick pattern.
💡 Interesting Fact:
If you had placed a limit order around the midpoint of the previous two zones,
you would have profited by now. So, for this zone, you can also place
a limit order around 50% of it.
Continuing further, other zones have formed below that could be useful
for new trades.
✨ Successful Sell Trade Achieved, Reaching a Reward of 4 Times the Risk.
📉 During the session continuation, the trend line was broken, triggering an upward price pullback.
🔹 Now, at the beginning of the session, we have a new zone, likely a selling order placement area. We're taking the risk on this zone. This time, we can place the trade around 50% of it. 🚀💼
🔥 Alright, what's your take now? 🔥
🌟 Is the price reacting to this level or not? 🌟
🚀📈 or 📉💥
Where are the upper zones located?
What do you think? 🤔💬
Pullback
Learn What is PULLBACK and WHY It is Important For TRADING
In the today's post, we will discuss the essential element of price action trading - a pullback.
There are two types of a price action leg of a move: impulse leg and pullback.
Impulse leg is a strong bullish/bearish movement that determines the market sentiment and trend.
While a pullback is the movement WITHIN the impulse.
The impulse leg has the level of its high and the level of its low.
If the impulse leg is bearish, a pullback initiates from its low and should complete strictly BELOW its high.
If the impulse leg is bullish, a pullback movement starts from its high and should end ABOVE its low.
Simply put, a pullback is a correctional movement within the impulse.
It occurs when the market becomes overbought/oversold after a strong movement in a bullish/bearish trend.
Here is the example of pullback on EURJPY pair.
The market is trading in a strong bullish trend. After a completion of each bullish impulse, the market retraces and completes the correctional movements strictly within the ranges of the impulses.
Here are 3 main reasons why pullbacks are important:
1. Trend confirmation
If the price keeps forming pullbacks after bullish impulses, it confirms that the market is in a bullish bearish trend.
While, a formation of pullbacks after bearish legs confirms that the market is trading in a downtrend.
Here is the example how bearish impulses and pullbacks confirm a healthy bearish trend on WTI Crude Oil.
2. Entry points
Pullbacks provide safe entry points for perfect trend-following opportunities.
Traders can look for pullbacks to key support/resistances, trend lines, moving averages or fibonacci levels, etc. for shorting/buying the market.
Take a look how a simple rising trend line could be applied for trend-following trading on EURNZD.
3. Risk management
By waiting for a pullback, traders can get better reward to risk ratio for their trades as they can set tighter stop loss and bigger take profit.
Take a look at these 2 trades on Bitcoin. On the left, a trader took a trade immediately after a breakout, while on the right, one opened a trade on a pullback.
Patience gave a pullback trader much better reward to risk ration with the same target and take profit level as a breakout trader.
Pullback is a temporary correction that often occurs after a significant movement. Remember that pullbacks do not guarantee the trend continuation and can easily turn into reversal moves. However, a combination of pullback and other technical tools and techniques can provide great trading opportunities.
Please, let me know if you have any questions! Also, please, support this post with like and comment! Thank you for reading!
TOMMY XAU | BASIC MARKET STRUCTURE Good afternoon gold gang!
Thought id jump on here to talk to you about basic market structure, as its the basis for any strategy and super important to learn.
We can identify that the market moves 3 ways ..
up trend
down trend
sideways (consolidation)
I prefer to trade when the market is trending in either direction. I determine this by looking at the monthly and weekly candles.
In a trending market, i am looking to identify areas that the market can reverse from. If we are making a higher high for example .. I can identify that price is likely to pull back down to the key level it started its ascent from. From there i can wait for confirmations on the lower time frame to take a trade in the direction of the trend.
obviously this doesnt work everytime .. news etc .. but its always good to have it in the back of your mind the phase of the market you are currently in.
you will find with my strategy .. that price will make new structure points around my key levels ( the ones i place on my chart)
Hope this helps some of you out .. back to basics is sometimes the way to go if you are getting overwhelmed with information
Have a great sunday and see you tonight for the outlook
tommy
Introducing the Bars Since EMA Touch IndicatorHey there traders, Stock Justice here! Are you ready to elevate your trading game? Today, we're going to delve into an exciting indicator I call 'Bars since EMA touch', or 'BSET' for short. Buckle up, because we're about to kick your technical analysis up a notch!
The BSET, at its heart, revolves around the Exponential Moving Average, or EMA. When setting up BSET, you'll be prompted for the length of the EMA, with the default being 9. This number represents the number of bars that will be averaged to create your EMA line. A higher value smooths out the line, reducing noise but potentially delaying important signals. A lower value makes the EMA more responsive, but at the risk of responding to market noise.
BSET calculates how many bars it's been since the price last touched the EMA. A positive number indicates the number of bars since the price was last above the EMA, and a negative number shows how long it's been since the price was below the EMA.
BSET also uses the MACD and signal line to color-code these bars. Blue and red bars indicate price is above the EMA, with blue signaling an upward trend and red signaling a possible downturn if the bar number is above 3. White and green bars indicate price is below the EMA, with white signaling a downward trend and green indicating a possible upturn if the bar number is above 3.
This color-coding can be a useful tool to quickly determine whether a potential reversal is in the making or if the current trend is likely to continue. But that's not all! BSET takes it a step further by keeping track of how often price trends extend beyond certain thresholds, updating these thresholds if necessary.
These thresholds, shown as red and green lines on the histogram, indicate the 15% percentile for bull and bear trends, respectively. If more than 20% of trends exceed the current threshold, it's adjusted upwards. This gives you a historical context for how long trends usually last and can help you spot when a trend is overextended and might be due for a reversal.
BSET is an innovative tool that combines trend tracking with volatility in a unique way, helping you better understand market dynamics and make informed trading decisions. Just remember, every indicator, BSET included, is just a tool. Always use them in conjunction with other analysis methods and never risk more than you're willing to lose.
That's it for now, traders. Keep your eyes on the charts and remember: Trade safe, trade smart! This is Stock Justice, signing off!
Top Pullback Trading StrategiesTop Pullback Trading Strategies
In this article, we will be discussing some of the most effective pullback trading strategies that can assist forex traders in identifying ideal entry points that align with the current trend. These strategies enable traders to take advantage of short-term price retracements, allowing them to navigate the volatile currency market with greater ease and profitability.
What is pullback trading?
Pullback trading refers to the practice of capitalizing on temporary price retracements or surges within an existing uptrend or downtrend in the forex market. These fluctuations in price typically occur over a brief period and do not interrupt the prevailing trend. Traders can leverage pullbacks by entering positions when the currency pair's price approaches its support or resistance level, enabling them to profit from upward or downward market movements.
Discover the Top Pullback Trading Strategies for Forex Traders
Moving Average Strategy
The Moving Average (MA) strategy is among the most widely used techniques for identifying pullbacks in an ongoing uptrend. This technical indicator calculates the average price of a currency pair over a specified timeframe and compares it with the present price to ascertain market behaviour.
In an uptrend, when the current price of the currency pair is significantly below its average price, it suggests that a short-term dip is likely to occur and provides a signal to enter long positions. Conversely, in a downtrend, if the current price of the currency pair is significantly above its average price, it implies that a short-term hike is probable, indicating the need to enter short positions to profit from a subsequent market downturn.
Trendline Strategy
Trendlines play a crucial role in identifying the direction of a trend in forex. Connecting three or more high or low price levels creates an uptrend or downtrend trendline, respectively. When trading pullbacks with trendlines, traders look for higher high price levels followed by higher low price levels, indicating a temporary dip in an ongoing uptrend. Alternatively, traders can enter short positions with trendlines showing lower low price levels followed by higher low price levels, signaling a temporary hike in an ongoing downtrend.
Traders can enter long or short positions with trendlines at the third, fourth, or fifth high or low price level, as these levels confirm the prevailing trend and signal the optimal entry point in the forex market.
Breakout Strategy
The Breakout strategy enables traders to enter the market immediately after currency pair prices reach their support or resistance level and subsequently move above or below it, respectively. Breakouts represent opposing movements to the prevailing trend, providing opportunities to enter the market during temporary reversals.
In an uptrend, when the currency pair price briefly touches its support level and contracts, a breakout signals a pullback in the trend, providing a signal to enter long positions and benefit from rising prices. Conversely, in a downtrend, when the currency pair price briefly touches its resistance level and expands, a breakout signals a pullback in the trend, providing a signal to enter short positions and benefit from falling prices.
Fibonacci Retracement Strategy
The Fibonacci Retracement strategy determines the optimal levels for entering the market during an uptrend or downtrend. Using Fibonacci levels, traders can identify the ideal support and resistance levels, based on which they can decide to long or short the market. This strategy utilizes Fibonacci retracement levels, which indicate how much currency pair prices are retracing before continuing in the prevailing trend direction.
During a downtrend, lower Fibonacci levels, such as 23.6% and 38.2%, suggest that the markets have not retraced significantly, enabling traders to identify the ideal resistance level (representing a temporary pullback hike) and signal short trades due to the expected continuation of the downtrend. Conversely, during an uptrend, higher Fibonacci levels, such as 61.8% or 78.6%, indicate that the markets have retraced extensively, helping to identify the ideal support level (representing a temporary pullback dip) and signal short trades due to the anticipated continuation of the uptrend.
Additionally, during an uptrend, lower Fibonacci levels like 23.6% and 38.2% suggest that prices are approaching the resistance level, which may break above this level, signaling traders to place long orders and benefit from the ongoing rising markets. On the other hand, during a downtrend, higher Fibonacci levels like 61.8% or 78.6% indicate that prices are approaching the support level, which may fall below the support level, signaling traders to place short orders and benefit from the ongoing falling markets.
Trade forex pullbacks and identify ideal entry prices
In forex trading, pullbacks can help traders pinpoint the optimal entry points for both long and short trades. By identifying temporary dips or hikes in currency pair prices during an existing uptrend or downtrend, traders can take advantage of short-term trading opportunities without missing out on potential profits.
Education: How To Trade Pullbacks To The Trend LineFor Trend Line Breaks, Wait For Time and Space To Occur. In this example, the trend line was broken on August 3rd, 2022 at 15:00. After the break, the Pullback Trader would wait till price retraces back to the broken trend line for an entry. Price retraced back to the trend line on August 11th, 2022 at 19:00. The Trader would have placed their entry at that time and date.
The next retracement occurred on August 29th at 19:00. The Trader would have placed their entry at that time and date.
In trading trend line breaks, wait for space and time to occur before entering.
The Best Pull Backs To Trade (Part One)Price pulled back to pivot point level 0.67. Price retraced 50%. Pin Bar candlestick formed at 50% retracement. Open Price and Close Price is "near" 50% retracement level as well at the pivot point level. Candlestick wick protrudes through the pivot point level and retracement level.
This is an ideal condition to enter a trade position using pivot point indicator, fibonacci retracement tool, and pin bar candlestick.
Trading RSI Divergences LIKE A BOSS (I may have failed you)Get your copy of the Free Heiken Ashi Algo Oscillator
I'm not going to lie. There is WAYYY too much technical stuff to type up in this for you guys. its best if you watch the video. Always Always Always ask questions below. I am always more than happy to show you what's what.
This is some UPPER LEVEL STUFF in this video and i know a lot of you won't fully understand it but i want you to understand what it is that you DON'T KNOW about.
Unless you know these things, you won't know what questions to ask about. So here we go. Let's get into it.
Trading the RSI Divergence like a BOSS
After the RSI Divergence is found:
On the chart: (KEYS)
1 = last HH
2 = current HH
3 = 1st HH Closing Price
4 = Confirmation of candle closing BELOW 1HH close price
5 = Find your targets
6 = Pinpoint any target with multiple confirmations
Steps to take:
1. See last Highest High
2. Draw a line across the last Highest High close price.
3. Confirm second HH is higher price but lower RSI value.
Now wait....
4. Wait for candle to close below price of step (2)
5. Enter SHORT if (Heiken Ashi Candle is closing RED)
6. Your 50ema is Take Profile #1 (Set it up)
7. Your swing high is your stop loss
8. What does the RSI Formula tell you? Is it in the positive? So what! Use the same numbers but trade SHORT. Yep, that what i said, TRADE IT IN REVERSE! This is Take Profit #2
9. Do the Fibonacci trick to confirm which is closer (tp 1 or tp2)
10. Look left for the most recent area of Liquidity. It's a candle with a long wick up or down where price reverses sharply.
11. Scan the Algo for a price level WITH volume. You have found your target. Adjust your take profit and walk away.
types of pullbacksIn this lesson, I shared with you the types of pullbacks
Be careful, pullbacks are breaks in the middle of the trend
Poolbacks do not have the strength of main steps
In my opinion, the best type of trading with pullbacks is to recognize the completion of these corrections patterns so that we can move in the direction of the trend at the right point.
Of course, it depends on your trading time frame.
RSI Trend Strategy GuidelinesThe RSI is a versatile indicator, and can be used to provide entry signals during a trend. To get the signals a moving average is applied to the RSI.
1. Trades are only taken in the direction of the trend. For an uptrend only take longs. For a downtrend only take shorts (puts).
2. During a downtrend the RSI must move above 60 to indicate a pullback. When the RSI crosses back below its moving average (can be at any number, just as long as the RSI is or was above 60 recently) go short.
3. During an uptrend the RSI must move below 40 to indicate a pullback. When the RSI crosses back above its moving average (can be at any number, just as long as the RSI is or was below 40 recently) go long.
4. Give the price at least two or three bars (whatever time frame you are trading on) or more before considering an exit. This gives the price some time to move in your favor.
LINKUSDT The Importance of 0.886 and 0.146 Fibonacci RatiosWhy 14.6% (.146) and 88.6% (.886) are important levels on Fibonacci retracement? The 14.6 Fibonacci ratio, wich has a high mean of assertivity, is mirroned by 88.6, which has become an important entry level and stop loss in the market. 88.6 = 1 - X, X = 14.6. These are hidden levels on the standard scale. But you can add them manually.
As you can see on chart, my fave way to use the Fibonacci Retracement is setting the .50 level at the pivot point** that precedes a pullback, i.e. the lowest low of the first downtrend. The price generally tends to retrace at least to the 0.707* level, which is another hidden level. The most common case in the crypto market, according to my experiences, is the price going into the zone between 0.886 and 0.786. In many cases touching 88.6, which can be considered a conservative point for a stop loss. If the price does not retrace from this zone, then a potential trend reversal can be considered. I have considered the range between 88.6 and 78.6 to be a 'short zone', that is, a zone where I usually wait for a reversive price action, or you could say a potential reversal zone.
When price follows the trend after retracing then I consider 14.6% as my potential target. Means that tendence continues.
This complete zig zag movement is what we call a swing, upward or downward.
*0.707 (70.7%) is the square root of 0.5 Fibonacci ratio, wich is a ratio between 1 and 2.
**Pivot points (some call them "swing points") are those areas where important short term reversals take place.
Okay, let's see what happens during this trade.
Thanks for your attention.
HOW TO TRADE PULLBACKSHello everyone!
Today I want to discuss pullback trading with you.
You may have come across such a situation when you were waiting for a pullback to enter the market, but the price did not stop and went further.
In the place where you expected the end of the rollback, there was a breakdown, and you did not receive an entry point.
Something went wrong?
Trend
Trend is our friend!
The most famous and most important rule.
At the beginning of any market analysis there must be a trend definition.
If you want to trade pullbacks correctly, you must determine the direction of the trend.
If you are trading on the hourly chart, you must determine the direction of the trend on the daily chart and wait for the right situation on your chart, while trading, of course, with the trend.
There must be a trend in the market in order to trade on a pullback.
Trend types
Trends are different, of different strengths.
They can be divided into three types:
1. When the price bounces off the 20MA and stays higher, we say the market is in a STRONG TREND.
2. The price bounces and stays above the 50MA - GENERAL TREND.
3. The price reaches and bounces from the 200MA - WEAK TREND.
Knowing these types of trend and being able to understand the movement will help us enter the market at the right point.
Point of entry
The entry points will be the areas around the MA lines.
Here it is worth focusing on the word REGION.
You must understand that the price can go below or above the MA and only then turn around, be prepared for this.
Entry on a strong trend
In a strong trend, the price stays above the 20MA.
At the same time, you need to remember that with a strong trend, rollbacks are not deep.
This means that finding the entry point will not be so easy.
But you can open a position after the breakdown of the last maximum.
Entry on a regular trend
In a normal trend, the price makes deeper pullbacks.
The price is testing the 50MA, while the previous resistance may become support.
These are the moments we are looking for to enter.
In such zones, we will wait for a price reversal candlestick pattern to enter.
Entry on a weak trend
In a weak trend, pullbacks are even deeper than in a normal trend.
The price makes a strong pullback, reaching 200MA.
When the price of the zone is reached, we are waiting for confirmation - a candlestick formation.
Closing positions
Closing a position is just as important as opening it.
The main signals for closing will be the price movement beyond the MA line.
For example, in a market with a strong trend, the price may go a little lower than 20MA, which is not critical yet, but it makes you be more careful.
It is worth paying attention to the support level, which should not be broken by the price, but if the price still breaks through the level, then the position must be closed.
With a weak trend, it is worth remembering that pullbacks can be deeper and the price will go beyond 50MA.
You must be prepared for this.
Watch for a support level that should not be broken.
With a weak trend, holding a position is the most difficult.
The price will make strong pullbacks, which will eventually force you to close the trade.
Sometimes the price, having reached the desired zone, does not bounce right away.
Consolidation begins and if you see such a situation, the best entry option would be to exit the consolidation zone.
You must have a plan for every occasion.
conclusions
Trading with the trend is the most profitable business.
You must be able to identify the trend on the higher timeframe and, importantly, be able to wait for the right situation on your timeframe.
The market cannot be predicted with 100% certainty, so use stops and keep an eye on support and resistance levels.
Good luck!
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩
Simplifying Order FlowThis chart analysis shows you the power of order flow using two main things:
OB - Order Blocks
BOS - Break of Structure
If you can determine a trend utilising impulse and correction, you can almost always ride the wave by scaling in positions using this method.
First, determine your trend and then wait for a break of structure of a low/high.
In this example, we are in a bearish market so we are anticipating a break of a low before we can draw up our order block.
Once we get a break we can mark the OB that created the break and then wait for demand at a later date for sells.
IF the price gets too far away from the OB and looks like it isn't going to return to that point, we can move on to the next BOS and OB.
Note: This does not always mean that price won't return but we can still capitalise on the short term moves.
I have left an example of what could potentially happen next, although I am doubtful because the trend looks like it is coming to an end.
Please take a moment to like and comment on this post!
How To Enter A Pullback In A Trend
Enter when these confluence factors are present. There is a Trend, Level, and Signal.
Trend:
Up
Confluence Factors at the Support Resistance Level:
Close Price 96.31
EMA 10 Close Price 96.24
50% Fibonacci Retracement Price 96.15
Horizontal Support Price 95.99
EMA 20 Close Price 95.31
Signal:
Rejection Candlestick
EURGBP 1H HEAD AND SHOULDERS NECKLINE BREAK PULLBACK ENGULFINGOn the EURGBP 1H time frame there was recently a perfect head and shoulders pattern that formed.
A strong neckline break followed by a 50% pullback and then a strong bearish engulfing set up a perfect high probability trade.
The head and shoulders pattern confirms that the trend is temporarily turning bearish.
The engulfing candle opened perfectly at the neckline and spiked up forming a huge wick.
The engulfing candle engulfed 6 previous candles which increases the probability of further bearish momentum.
As soon as the bearish engulfing candles closes, it is safe to enter short.
A safe stop loss would be placed slightly above the high of the bearish engulfing candle.
A riskier stop loss would be placed slightly above the bearish engulfing candle body high.
A 1:3 risk to reward offers plenty of profit.
It is also important to note that the bearish engulfing candle closed at 3am CST.
Learn To Identify The Types Of PullbacksIn this video, I talked about the types of pullbacks and how to identify them. These pullbacks are the reasons why some traders get caught in the accumulation mix from the big banks. so learn to identify them to be amongst the 1%
Remember Trading is risky but learning reduces its risk.
cheers,
luchi!
There are 2 Types of Pullback Setups - LEARN BOTHHere I'd like to share my favourite entry method.
The chart is self explanatory.
Let me know if you have any questions ....
This will happen during Wave 3 and Wave 5 (for those who subscribe to the Elliott Wave theory)
This pattern is sometimes called the Retrace, the Dip, the Pullback, the ABC correction, the ZigZag. The BOMB (by guerilla guys)
Heikin Ashi candlesticks overview Heikin Ashi candlesticks gives a smoother appearance by reducing some of the market noise, hence making it easier to spots trends and reversals. There is a tendency with Heikin-Ashi for the candles to stay red during a downtrend and green during an uptrend
Heikin-Ashi calculation uses a formula based on two-period averages
How to read Heikin-Ashi candles
Green candles indicate an uptrend and in case with no lower shadows the move can be assumed a strong uptrend
Red candles indicate a downtrend and if with no higher shadows a strong downtrend
Candles with a small body surrounded by upper and lower shadows indicate a potential trend change or trend pause
the Heikin-Ashi candlesticks do not show the exact open and close prices for a particular time period because they are averaged hence who need to exploit quick price moves may find Heikin-Ashi charts are not responsive enough to be useful
For whom interested with Higher Time Frame Candle presentation on lower time frame chart including Heikin-Ashi candles are invited to check HTF Candles
IDF Play - Fading a daily inside barSTATEMENT
This publication aim to explain as detailed as possible the IDF play strategy.
To do so, we will analyse USDCAD chart and the inside bar that was printed on 22-04-2021.
RATIONALE
Why trading the failure of an inside bar? It's commonly known that retail traders will identify an inside bar as a reversal candle. Institutions and big players know how retail traders play these kind of candles and will most likely fade them.
Also, before directly trading this technique, please backtest it through different time period (what could have workd in 2020 might not work anymore in 2021 as it's well known that market behaviour can change) and different currencies (an high strike rate with EURUSD doesn't mean it will work with GPBUSD for example). I would consider it as an edge it win rate is above 60% adn the ratio is in average above 1% ROI.
INSIDE BAR
What's an inside bar? It is a candle in which the high to low range is smaller than the prior candle; i.e., the high is lower than the previous bar's high, and the low is higher than the previous bar's low .
THE PLAY
First of all, we identify an inside bar on the daily time frame:
In this particular trade, our inside bar can also be identified as a Doji candle (another reversal candle), reinforcing the retail trader's sentiment that we are about to witness a trend reversal (meaning that most of them will be placing an order to go long with a stop loss below the wick of the candle).
Additionally, if we check the prior day we notice that price printed an Outside bar (or Engulfing candle), confirming our bias that we are most likely to find opportunities to go short.
Next step is to go down to the hourly time frame and look for a significant leven from which we can short.
So far in below screenshot we have identify a significant support level where price was rejected 6 times. As we would like to find an opportunity to go short, we need to wait for the price to break through this level.
Now, as we have short bias, we need to wait for the price to break through that support level, so we can consider placing an order (sell limit).
With 6 touches on the support level, market is telling us that we have a strong level, having saying that, we won't need any further confluence to look for entry after the breakout.
After breakout is confirmed (1) and there is no an immediate pullback (few candles between breakout and pullback to significant level) we can place our order (in this case, sell limit).
We do not place our stop loss above the latest lower high; we play it safe and place it at 1.25104 (the prior lower high).
Take profit is placed at a weekly level we have identified we do believe can represent a valid target.
THE RESULT
How to trade a temporary pullback and a breakout gap? How to trade a temporary pullback and a breakout gap?
Some security will make a temporary pullback before making a new high with a breakout gap.
How to trade a temporary pullback?
A trader may be bearish during the temporary pullback formation. A trader may consider going short during this pattern formation or the trader may consider waiting to avoid losses during the price drop.
How to trade a breakout gap?
A trader may be bullish when a bottom is identified. A trader may consider accumulating shares in anticipation of a breakout.
What are some of the reasons one may fail to trade this pattern?
Correct identification of the chart pattern is essential to trade this pattern. Not all stocks will pullback before a breakout to a new high. Possibly misidentification of a trend change as a pullback. Possibly a temporary bottom was identified, but the downtrend continued and changed the pattern.
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Greenfield
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Disclosure: Article written by Greenfield. A market idea by Greenfield Analysis LLC for educational material only.
How to trade a throwback and a pullback?How to trade a throwback and a pullback?
What are a throwback and a pullback?
A throwback hits a new high price, but will quickly reverse and return to the initial price prior to the breakout. A pullback hits the previous major support, and will quickly resume the uptrend.
How to trade a throwback? What are some of the reasons one may fail to trade a throwback?
Go long when the price breakout higher, and go short when the price start reverses direction. One may fail to trade a throwback possibly due to failing to differentiate a throwback from a potential new bull run. Also, possibly the trader correctly identified the pattern, but the trend reversed suddenly and trapped the trader.
How to trade a pullback? What are some of the reasons one may fail to trade a pullback?
Go short when the price breakout lower, and go long when the price starts going higher. One may fail to trade a pullback possibly due to failing to differentiate a pullback from a trend reversal. Also, possibly the trader correctly identified the pattern, but the trend reversed suddenly and trapped the trader.
Thank you for reading!
Greenfield
Remember to click "Like" and "Follow!"
Disclosure: Article written by Greenfield. A market idea by Greenfield Analysis LLC for educational material only.