Stage Analysis & Trailing StopsWhy Stage Analysis
Stage Analysis is the very first thing you need to get right or everything else will be unnecessary, according to Mark Minervini.
Based on his study 98% of all big winners, dating back from 1800s to current day have been in confirmed Stage 2 BEFORE they made their big move! This makes Stage Analysis a foundational knowledge for anyone who trades the market.
History of Stage Analysis
Stan Weinstein outlined the principles of Stage Analysis in his 1988 book, Stan Weinstein's Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets.
This classic text opened the door for many non-professionals to execute successful trading system based on his detailed description of the best prospects for long buys and short sale positions. However, his classic concepts have a far wider reach — it is a premise that gives the best time for a trader to enter and trade the market.
It divides market action by 4 segment (Stages) which analyzes prices dynamics over a continuous cycle that includes bottoms, breakouts, top peaks breakdowns and downtrend occurrences.
Stage
🟨 Case against Averaging Down - Stage AnalysisAveraging down is rejected by all big Market Wizards.
The problem is that the stock can always go another -90% down.
The example of SKLZ shows that after 19 consecutive times the stock decreased -20%, it no where near the average dollar price, if you buy same amount after each 20% decline.
In fact, it has to move +300% to get to break-even. How many of your stocks do that?
Do you see now, why probabilities are not in your favor.
PS if you think this is just a crappy company look at $GE in 2007-2009.